VIX under pressure, but close to critical supportsThe VIX remains under pressure, within the November bear trend, with the close below the July 2014 trendline putting pressure on the 10.28 year low of July 2014.
Falling studies anticipate extension to psychological support at 10.00, with potential for further losses to the 9.70 year low of February 2007. Still lower is the 9.39 year low of December 2006, but already oversold stochastics studies suggest downside tests could become progressively more difficult to maintain.
Critical contract lows at the 8.89 low of December 1993 should underpin any immediate tests, as prices settle into volatile consolidation.
Resistance is lowered to the 13.28 high of 19 January, but a close above the 14.72 high of December 2016 is needed to improve price action and promote stability/trend change.
Usequities
Hershey's CoCo Sector Report - January 28, 2017Materials and Finance both started the week flat, moved up for a couple days, then remained steady on Friday while the US and World markets were down. If the US and World indexes are up next week I expect much from these two!
Real Estate and Consumer Staples (Non-Cyclical) were the clear Sector losers taking back all the gains they made early in the week to finish weak.
Materials had over 60 stocks > 5% for the week... compare that with Real Estate that had only 9!
Good trading!
Brian Hershey
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"CoCo World" helps to answer the following question: Is this stock moving alone or with the US and world markets? No stock is an island, so it's important to see what everyone else is doing. Useful across all time frames, small and packed with info!
US equities SPX losing background bullish momentumUS Equities remain at elevated levels, with focus on the 2300 psychological barrier and (150%) projection of the 2015-2016 fall.
Extension towards the 2332, (161.8%) retracement cannot be ruled out as the Tension Indicator, not shown, continues to strengthen, but overbought stochastics and weakening background readings are expected to make gains progressively difficult to sustain and promote profit-taking pressure into the coming months.
A close below 2200 would turn investors cautious once again, and open up further losses to congestion around 2100. A close below the 2083.79 low of November, however, would add weight to price action, and signal a deeper reaction towards congestion around 2000.
Facebook remains under long term pressureThe sharp rejection of the October highs is attempting to stabilise above USD113.00.
Consolidation is highlighted in the coming week or so, but the fall in momentum studies and deterioration in sentiment are likely to keep prices under pressure into the beginning of 2017Q1.
Also, from a relative perspective, Facebook is also underperforming the US Technology Sector, which itself is Underperforming the S&P500. This double filter also highlights downside risks into the coming months.
SPX/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (Short-term View)Instead of looking at SPX alone, looking at this ratio is better for shorting stocks/longing VIX, because it helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes. Watch the black/light blue/brown lines above. If this ratio breaks above those lines confidently, get out of shorts and wait for a better time to do so.
SPX/VIX Ratio 4/15/2016 (All-time View)Instead of looking at SPX alone, looking at this ratio is better for shorting stocks/longing VIX, because it helps us distinguish between fearless crashes and fearful crashes. Watch the black/light blue/brown lines above. If this ratio breaks above those lines confidently, get out of shorts and wait for a better time to do so.