ORBEX: SPX, DXY: What's Next For Indices?In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #SPX and #DXY.
SPX keeps going up, and with structural variances playing in we could see fresh highs reached in no time. Will the US-China situation and a dovish #Fed boost appetite for equities more?
The US Index, on the other hand, should be watched cautiously. Will this upside impulsive move turn out to be another correction or the real bullish deal?
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Usindex
ORBEX:SPX,DXY - Equities Upbeat As Phase-1 Agreed in PrincipleIn today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about China's comments on Phase-1 of a potential trade deal with the US and last Friday's #NFP numbers.
I look at the SPX and DXY as both are affected by the above events in a different way; the S&P500 remains upbeat on Friday's sentiment whereas the dollar index, although yields were seen ending the week higher, was a likely is going to remain under pressure on safe-haven outflows.
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
ORBEX:SPX,DXY -Tradewar Deal Next Month! Brexit Today, Tomorrow?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #SPX and #DXY #Indices!
Equities and Cash Indices are both affected by growing confidence surrounding #tradewars, #Brexit and of course, the upbeat US earning reports that keep coming out!
With Mr Trump expecting a #tradewar deal by the middle of next month and BoJo willing to push through his latest EU-agreed deal through parliament today or tomorrow, it's going to be an interesting start to the week.
Meanwhile, the economic calendar is light today, Monday, making headline news a good market mover!
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
ORBEX: #Tradewar #Brexit: Two Deals, Not One, TWO DEALS!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #SPX500 and #DXY
SPX Bid on:
- US-China limited deal
- Brexit front optimism
*Performance depends on deal details and US earnings!
US Index Down on:
- Trade optimism
- Fed willing to cut again
And despite UoM was upbeat!
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
ORBEX: DXY, SPX - FED to Delay Cut? Trade Talks Resume ThursdayIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #dxy and #spx
Both affected by:
- post-NFP flows (seen as positive for now, delaying Fed cut)
- Poor ISM last week (numbers affected by tradewars)
- Expectations on trade talks (resume on Thursday but looking pessimistic)
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
How to Trade the SPX in October 2019Look for the SPX to trade rangebound between 2960 and 2880 for 2 to 3 weeks, followed by a significant move either to the upside or downside.
Its too early to tell which way the move will resolve, so be watching closely. My bias is towards the downside, specifically towards the trend-line at 2790, but considering the amount of liquidity the Fed has already pumped into the market, I would not be surprised to see the S&P shoot higher.
ORBEX: DXY, SXP Affected by US-Sino TradeWar ReescalationIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse the US Index and S&P 500
What affects #DXY and #SPX:
- China cancels a visit to US farms
- Trump says no need for trade deal before 2020 elections, in response to Chinese cancelation
- US President also says won't do a partial deal, only complete deal
- Fed rate cut
- Dovish banks
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Dow Jones: Lower Buy opportunity and continuation level.Having successfully hit both of our bearish targets on the MA20 1D sell signal:
, the index is trading inside a 1D Descending Head and Shoulders pattern (RSI = 30.952, MACD = -335.400, Highs/Lows = -556.4643) with clear sell/ buy pressure points. We are currently approaching the strongest buy level (24,600) which is for us an automatic long order to 25,070. If 25,200 breaks and gets re-tested successfully as a Support, it will be a long continuation signal towards 25,800.
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Dow Jones below the MA20. Caution. At least -1.40% underway.DJI has crossed below the MA(20) for the first time since late March. 1D has turned neutral (RSI = 50.457) calling for attention.
Since the aggressive bull market took a pause in January 2018, Dow Jones crossed below the MA(20) 12 times. The dynamics of each break out vary but on average the price dropped -4.94% before the next sustainable rise. The highest decline was -14.10% (December 3, 2019) and the lowest -1.40% (May 29, 2018).
Since the index has already pulled back -0.94%, it is fair to assume that more selling in underway.
If it drops to the minimum -1.40% then the bottom will be made around 26,050.
If it drops to the average -4.94% then expect a bottom around 25,100.
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US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: retraces down after US GDP DXY found resistance at the 98.34 level after the release of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Q1. *Chicago PMI *CB Confidence * ADP Non-farm Employment Change and THe ISM Manufacturing PMI four Report looks better then ever . Until date 1, these three market mover data. last week's GDP growth and was solid. These reports are better then the ones that are good.
May 2 FOMC , Rate Decision and Press Conferences. Even before we saw that progress from the FED member to the Powell is good, trying to increase the rate of not being influenced of Dovish statement was very broad. This FOMC and Press conference will also try to keep the strongest Dollar stopping and rating the Dovish statement.
And 3 May, is the labor market report. if there is a chance to have a dollar strand even now that's why Apra will try to stop the dollar's power from being on the date with a Dovish statement. the ADP expects too much if the NFP expects less then before. so seeing the ADP report, we can be sure of how NFP can be. and if expectations are less then 1,00,000 / 81 thousand people, they can not be called bad. Below 150k is actually bad to say. The dollar must sell the market will not believe anything.
If we are part of the ISM Manufacturing PMI's Employment component, we can be more convinced about the NFP. ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI's Employment component the main tool to learn how NFP can be our main tool.
TECHNICALLY the dollar index the projection of the reports is called positive forecast. In this case, the dollar index will break 100/100.40 at any time breaking 98.40. That means that around 200/25 pips will be able to make the dollar stronger, unlike Euro, Pound, and Swiss France. But the question is, what is so strong dollar for the American ? I do not thing so, but they will not be able to stop the reports.The hedge fund, the bank will not want to easily hit and hit it, but it will not stop because the reports are good. What can the FED do ? Yes, there is still a power in their hands that is FOMC. It can protect it from being too strong and i think that will happen.
Technical key levels:-
===================
Daily SMA100 96.66
Daily SMA200 96.17
Previous Weekly High 97.49
Previous Weekly Low 96.79
Previous Monthly High 97.71
Previous Monthly Low 95.74
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 98.2
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 98.12
"Top and Bottom Analysis" S&P 500 (SPX) by ThinkingAnts4H CHART EXPLANATION
As we explained on the Daily/Weekly Analysis, price is on a Strong Bearish Zone, a confluence of:
-Daily Resistance zone (Possible Triple top).
-Wedge Pattern showing weakness of the Ascending movement.
-Pullback to the broken Daily Ascending Trendline .
-Bearish Divergence MACD .
We expect a Break out of the Ascending Wedge Pattern Below 2855.8 towards 2727.2.
If price makes this confirmation we will be looking for sell setups over the mentioned area, paying atention to the Middle support level betwen those points.
Updates comming soon!
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
- Weekly
-Daily
US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH EL DOLAR A PESAR DE TODO SE SIGUE FORTALENCIENDO, Y SE VE REFLEJADA SU FUERZA SIEMPRE PRIMERO EN EL DXY
ASI QUE TENEMOS ESTE IMPULSO HACIA NIVEL DE FIBONACCI DE 61.8% UN TARGET MUY IMPORTANTE.
CONFIRMADO CON CRUCE DE MEDIAS MOVILES PODEMOS ENTRAR A ESTA OPERACION CON UN BAJO RIESGO DE 3-1
TRADE SET
GL HF