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US indexes Possible Double BottomEven though the S&P broke the previous summer low if Monday opens higher we can expect that this was a fakeout and the double bottom pattern will come into play. The overall fundamental picture is more critical and dominant than some lines on the chart. However, still, it can be a high-risk, high-reward trade that can come into great use if we already have some puts on the main indexes as the retail investors holding puts are at record highs. With the VIX index being highly volatile recently it wouldn't be a big surprise if this break of the bottom is a fake out and retest of the fibo level which overlap with the technical analyzes. Again the overall trend is bearish but if we see an opportunity that matches our trading style we have to act accordingly.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by Elite_Forex
Dow emini stops@20% bear mkt with mma50 & GANN line supportDow e-mini officially entered bear market territory breaking below 20% decline limit & the weekly wma200 line. It is the only major index that made a lower low & confirmed by the transports DJT. Dow, with a lot of defensive stocks, has been holding the strongest all this time & I think it will be the last to capitulate before the market bottoms. (After market takes out the weak hands & stop losses) However, it is still uptrend in the monthly chart with mma50 & my GANN line as support. It took only 7 weeks for it to drop 14% from the August top…exactly from 1 GANN line to the next one below. (Looks like a capitulation) The moves this week will determine if current support will hold as Dow consolidates before the 4Q2022 rally up to December. (This may technically still be a double bottom…only a little below the 0.386 Fib retracement zone from pandemic low to ATH) The monthly mma50 must hold to be bullish. Otherwise the next support will be the next GANN line below around the 27k to 28k zone…near the 0.50 Fib retracement zone. Not trading advice
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by xtremerider8
1
US30 LongUS30 Long: We can see the price has previously tested the psychological level of 30,000 previously on the 19th of June and was heavily rejected. Price is now heading back to this level, we can see we now have nice support and 200 MA coming up to meet this level. Due to positive U.S CPI data, we saw significant bearish pressure on U.S equities meaning we now have an imbalance in price. Comment below what is your opinion about this index (every comment gets an answer) BLACKBULL:US30 SKILLING:DJ30
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by Elite_Forex
SPY bulltrap again bef plunge;BO of 400/380 may see 350/320/280This is a SPY weekly chart after the Friday FED speech signaling continued hawkishness till inflation drops to 2%. Spy has a history of making bulltraps (higher highs on this weekly chart) before plunging as seen in my several boxes. It was rejected by the black downtrend line from the 476.44 ATH (see black falling wedge) & also rejected by the horizontal neckline of the H&S from top at around 330. BULLISH SCENARIO: If 362.17 June low is the bottom for this ABC correction, then SPY should make a higher low at either the psychological 400 or 380 (previous H&S destination & also the maximum Fib 0.786 retracement of the latest June rally). From here a new ATH is coming in 4Q2022 when inflation drops lower that 4% & the FED pivots. BEARISH CASE: SPY will not hold the 362.17 low if 400 & 380 fails. The final targets of this ABC correction may be the ff: *350 which is the 1.618 FIB EXT of this ABC, the 0.50 retracement from pandemic low to ATH *320 which is the 2.0 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.618 retracement from pandemic to ATH & also near the 0.382 retracement from 2009 bottom to ATH *280 which is the 2.618 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.786 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also near the 0.5 retracement from 2009 Bottom to ATH These estimates should be considered as +/- zones & not exact levels. The pandemic low of 211.11 is not likely to be retested. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPYShort
by xtremerider8
Morning Market Update 8.16.22: Markets Very ConfidentUS Markets This morning I thought I’d try something different. Updating my coverage list in one post. (Comment if you like or would rather have dedicated posts). I’ll start with the US Markets. The main chart above shows the S&P Futures advancing or consolidating at the highs. I am starting to see a more bullish or technically constructive article flow from the financial news sites I frequent. Sadly, these are expected in counter trend moves. However, that doesn’t mean that this sort of constructive price action can’t continue. One telling point is the MACD showing “Hidden Bearish Divergences” building in the daily chart, along with outright negative divergence on the intraday charts. I suspect price will decline or at the very least take a break possibly starting today. In the US Markets my primary path is this is the B wave high shown in black. Over the course of the next several months I believe we will revisit the lows and breach them. The purple count is alternative analysis which is also valid and shows we're just 1/3 of their way to topping...sometime in October. Solana The above 15 minute chart shows how the recent price action is testing the limits of my black count. We're on the verge of invalidating any Bullish analysis from a pattern perspective without at least a sizeable decline to reset. Perhaps today Solana price will decline and put an end to one of the ugliest advancing patterns I have seen in a while. A breach of $42.07 will do just that. Ethereum This has been a text book advance. The topping process is playing out in the MACD indicator. Clearly showing as price advanced in the last portion of this wave IV the MACD indicator did not (shown in Red) . This negative divergence will give way to the decline we're anticipating I believe once price can get below $1800. Bitcoin Bitcoin's advance has petered out and also shows significant negative divergence in the MACD indicator. However until we can get below $22,800 we have to look to the next Fib resistance around $26800.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Evening Update: SPX Topping in "A" or IV you want to be long?To me it's nuts to be on the long side at this levels. I understand, we declined from 4800 to 3600 and now we're only at 4200. I get it. How would you like it if we were at 3200? So, right now we're topping or have topped. I say that because Topping (unlike bottoming) is a process versus an event (like bottoming). Topping is a function (especially in an index) of a battle of bulls and bears, each with their own trade thesis. Each believes in it strongly. Each, will not go away without a fight. As an Elliottition, I am an arbitrator. Who wins, matters not to me. Forecasting a trade set up is what I care about, so I'm a garbage man . In normal times. But these aren't normal times. In this particular case...I can decidedly say...We're topping now. Excuse me , EVERYTHING IS TOPPING AT ONCE. I can not decide what to short. ES futures...I pray you give me a meager retrace so I may put my stamp upon you. My Brand. I was here! I have been saving articles articles to share with my followers written by some of the Wall Street Bank's best and brightest.... "The Market bottomed", "Dr. Doom has died his 10th Death", and my favorite "Did the Bear Market Just End?" RUBBISH. No, the Bear Market didn't just end, and why can't traders learn from history? I don't why traders have no historical perspective but I can say this one thing definitively....I'm glad they don't. If everyone was a genius than genius would be undervalued. Good luck with that whole has the bear market ended thing. LOB, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
Weekend Update: SPX in the final machinations of it's topThe SPX has been strong. Despite the economic reports, The Fed raising interest rates, COVID-19, Monkey Pox....it's like another Sequel of the Mad Max Movies out there. We topped right at the 1.382 Fib last week and retreated. Typically what happens is a move down to the 1.0 at (4048) then a final rally to the 1.618 or even the 1.786. The target area for this top in wave IV is 4300-4400. As we are topping I anticipate the economic news flow to be relatively good to benign. The psychology behind a wave IV is a battle between "We've Bottomed and The World is Ending" Always the extremes carve out the patterns in corrective waves while cooler heads sit on the sidelines or stay invested. I believe the "The World is Ending Camp" will get some small moniker of respect towards end of the month-beginning of September as we begin our final descent. Final Target for the SPX is 3200. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
SPX may retest 2018Megaphone @3500 or 2009 channel@3kAs I’ve warning several times that the worst is not yet over despite many bear-market rallies, SPX was rejected by the blue dotted midline of the upchannel from 2009 & was unable to fill the downgap near 4k which instantly became a resistance now. BEWARE: lower lows are coming with SPX barely holding a previous low @3820, a FIB 0.382 retracement from pandemic low. The next strong support will be 3500, the FIB 0.50 level, a 27% drop from ATH. 3500 is a confluence of 3 impt FIB levels. Besides the 0.50 that I mentioned, it is also the 1.618 FIB ext of the 3820 abc relief rally & the 0.854 FIB ext of the 4117 Feb 24 invasion low abc relief rally. 3500 is also the projected zone where SPX may retest the green 2018 Megaphone top. WORST CASE SCENARIO: If my green support zone @3400 to 3500 fails, then 3000 to 3200 (yellow zone) will be the maximum pain zone. 3200 is the FIB 0.618 retracement from pandemic low. This yellow zone is also the projected area where SPX may come to retest the red 1995 TL or the blue lower side of 2009 upchannel. This big ABC capitulation phase will end wave IV sometime near 4Q2022 & the last melt-up rally of wave V may end somewhere in the 5100 to 5400 zone near the top of the upchannel around middle of 2023. Not trading advice
TVC:SPXShort
by xtremerider8
3
SPX ABC wave may reach 3400 if it loses 3800; Bulltrap?SPX rally stalls inside the 4100 to 4200 zone. The recent gap up above the H&S violet neckline could be a bulltrap. If bears gap it down next week below the neckline (island reversal), then the H&S pattern may still play out. BULLISH CASE: As long as SPX does not make a lower low than 3800. There may be a chance for a double bottom before a new 5-wave rally, BEARISH CASE: If SPX breaks breaks below 3800, the the possibility of a 5-wave C-wave becomes clearer. This will be the last leg down of the 5-3-5 ABC corrective wave from ATH. Wave C has a high chance of ending in the 3500 to 3400 green zone. 3500 is a 0.50 Fib retracement from pandemic low to ATH. 3400 is a 30% correction from ATH. (The pandemic plunge was a 35% correction) 3400 is also the wave 1 pre-pandemic top. EW theory states that wave 4 should not end lower than the top of wave 1. Since wave2 retraced only 0.382 Fib of wave 1, then wave 4 should be a much bigger correction of at least 0.50/0.618 Fib. My BULLISH wave 5 Target: if SPX drops to 3400 from lets say 4200, that would be the c-wave. Applying FIB levels to c-wave COINCIDENTALLY will see ALL the impt FIB levels falling exactly on my various S&R lines. The final wave 5 melt-up top may reach my red 5150 to 5435 zone sometime in the middle of 2023. 5312 is a 2.618 Fib of the pandemic crash. 5435 is the 2.618 of my predicted wave dive. And if you measure the most recent range from 4637.30 B-wave top to the 3820 current bottom. Double that 800 range & you will exactly get my predicted 5435 wave 5 melt-up top. Note: the bullish case assumes that the FED pauses & becomes less hawkish after the priced-in two 50 basis point rate hikes in June & July when consumer demand, inflation & the economy slows down substantially. Before that happens, volatility & fear shall remain & the market continues to be driven by news & sentiment rather than fundamentals. Not trading advice
TVC:SPX
by xtremerider8
Morning Update: Looking for continuation today to the upsideIf we have struck a bottom we should get continuation to the upside today. Specifically I'm looking for a breach above 4091 the previous wave 4 high on May 17th. MACD is already signaling this advance has enough strength to eclipse that high. Should at any time we fall back below 4,000 all we will have accomplished is an A wave. This will bolster the purple ED count. This means we're in purple wave 4 which should still advance but in an overlapping fashion to reconcile in the area of 4200-4300 only to fall to new lows late in the summer. Best to All, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
US100: Price Will Soon Reach the Area of Interest -INTRODUCTION- US100 is currently moving in a downtrend. This index likes to consolidate within a horizontal channel before breaking down to reach a new low. From the chart, we can spot several horizontal channels formed from the new support levels. Observing closely, we can see that when the price has retraced and reached the top of the channel, it almost always fell sharply down to retest the previous low. -TRADING PLAN- Currently, the price is retracing from the yearly low and reaching the top of the channel. From the $12600 level, we will observe whether the price will break the resistance level or consolidate and drop. US session tomorrow should create some signals. Check out our previous trading ideas below :)
U
by NicoBeau_Capital
US30: Price Forms a Rising Wedge Pattern-INTRODUCTION- US30 currently has two gaps which are not filled. One is the recent low at the $30650 level while another one is at the $31300 level. In 1-hour chart, we can see that the price has formed a rising wedge pattern, along with a bearish divergence in RSI. Therefore, we expect a sharp bearish breakout sometimes very soon, similar to the last retracement breakout. -TRADING PLAN- We will carefully monitor the price movement during the US session today to see whether the price will break the rising wedge pattern. We love to trade rising/falling wedge patterns. Breaking the pattern often creates a strong price impulse, especially when the pattern is formed as a retracement. Check out our recent retracement trading ideas below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
6
Evening Update: Give me 4,000SPX, why can't you give me 4,000? It's not much to ask. This is turning into a mess!!!! The largest US Index needs to get over 4,000 and close there. The chart above outlines an ED. Even me, who is not a trader, will trade for 10% upside. That's the upside if this pattern turns into an ED. But the weakness is concerning to me. Tomorrow is the GDP report. All I ask is let's break out or break down...but tell me something definitively. Until then....all we have is this Gobbly-Gook. Above 4,000 and 4,300 looks good. Below 3810 and 3700 is where we hope price stops....but below 3700 and 3500 seems like the next logical support area. Best to All, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2
Price Reached a New Low and Retraced, When to Sell Next?-INTRODUCTION- Last Friday, US30 has reached a new low at the $30650 level. As we forecasted in our previous US30 analysis, the price broke out from its bearish flag channel during the last US session. This indicates that the bearish trend is still very valid and we will continue to look for sell opportunities after a retracement. -TRADING PLAN- The price has retraced and is currently retesting the resistance level of $31600. This is where the previous breakout has occurred. In the chart, we can also see that today's market opening has created a gap at the $31300 level. If the price breaks down from the current retracement uptrend channel, then we expect the price to reach $31300 level first to fill the gap. However, if the price breaks up the $31600 resistance level first, then the price could reach to retest the $31900 level. US30 currently has an unfilled gap and also a new lower low price level which has not been retested. Therefore, there’s a very high probability for the price to arrive at those two levels. Now, we just need to focus on the price action to determine the next sell entry price. US session today should provide a clear path. Check out our recent US indices trading idea below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
US100: Next Sell Opportunity to Catch a Sharp Bearish Impulse -INTRODUCTION- US100 is currently moving in a downtrend. This index likes to consolidate within a horizontal channel before breaking down to reach a new low. From the chart, we can spot several horizontal channels formed from the new support levels. Observing closely, we can see that when the price has retraced and reached the top of the channel, it almost always fell sharply down to retest the previous low. -TRADING PLAN- US100 is moving in a downtrend and currently, the price is retracing from the yearly low. Our plan is to enter sell positions from the top of the horizontal channel, as we can see from the past price actions that when the price began to retrace from the new low, it has reached the channel high everytime. Therefore, our potential sell zone is set at the $12600 level. From that area, we will target the recent yearly low of $11700. Check out our previous US Indices trading ideas below
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
2
US30: A Great Sell Setup From the Bearish Flag Channel-INTRODUCTION- US30 has recently reached a new low at the $31000 level. This makes the downtrend still very valid and we will look to enter sell positions after a retracement. In the 15-minute chart, we can see a sharp bearish impulse movement, followed by a slow retracement. These are good bearish structures indicating that bears are still in control. -TRADING PLAN- The price is moving nicely within the bearish flag channel. Currently, the price is testing the resistance level of $31600. If the price breaks above, then we expect the price to retest the next resistance level of $31900. If failed, then the price should break down the bearish flag channel, falling to retest the previous low. US session today should provide a clear path. Check out our recent US500 intraday trading idea below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
Evening Update: SPX TodayOvernight ES futures are signaling an SPX open right at the lows . As I have written about for weeks...I was calling for an ABC flat to complete wave 4. I am still expecting that to play out but I'll know this morning when the SPX opens if that is going to be reasonable. The issue I have with that pattern now is this decline should be a 3 wave pattern that overlaps (a B Wave). This recent decline looks impulsive and the observer could reasonably conclude that this decline will continue. A continuation would've been my black count that I removed from the chart a couple days ago. This is the primary reason why no one should ever try to trade a wave 4. It's difficult to analyze let alone try to make money in it. Suffice to say if we take out 3850-SPX then we may be headed another 100 points lower rather quickly. Let's see what clues we get today. Best to All, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1