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Morning Update: Black Count Pathway REMOVEDAs I have been writing about the equal chance of BLUE and BLACK pathways to reconcile lower, this mornings things got a little clearer. This prolonged consolidation higher off of the 3860 low leaves the blue count as most probable. Therefore I have removed the black count from the chart, as it called for immediate continuation of the downtrend. That clearly did not happen. The Blue count puts us in a consolidation area for most if not all this week before we complete blue wave 4. Best to All, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
US100: A Roadmap for the Next Sell SetupLast week, US100 has made a new low at $11700 level. This price movement indicates that the bearish trend is still very valid and therefore, we will continue to look for sell entries after a retracement. Currently, we can see a potential inverse head and shoulder pattern in making. Thus, we will monitor for a breakout from the neckline area. If the price breaks above, we will then expect the price to reach $13000 level first. If price continues to break above, then it could reach the next resistance level of $13600. $13000 and $13600 are two key resistance levels from where we will prepare to enter our sell positions. From one of those two resistance levels, the price could fall to retest the previous low of $11700. Check out our previous US indices trading ideas below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
US30: The Next Potential Sell Zone After a Retracement Last week, US30 has arrived at a new low at $31200 level. Therefore, this indicates that the downtrend is still very valid, and we will continue to look for sell entries after a retracement. From $31200 level, we can spot a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which could indicate the start of a retracement. Our area of interest to enter sell positions are at the resistance level of $33200 and $34100. After the price has retraced to those levels, we will look for a consolidation/reversal pattern. We can see that during the previous price retracements, prices all have formed double tops first, and then broke and retested the neckline area before resumed its bearish trend to make a new low. Therefore, we will be looking for a similar scenario during this retracement. Check out our previous US indices trading ideas below :)
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
Morning Update: Does the Market Prefer Black, Blue or GreenThe overnight futures are signaling an open right into the 1.0 Fib Extension. Under the BLACK count (which is my primary expectation) we go back down. This would take us into the 3726 area over the next couple of days. From there we would consolidate back into the 3960 area over the course of the next couple weeks. This would be a proper wave 4 as our wave 2 was short and shallow. Afterwards we would see a precipitous decline into the 3500 level for a final wave 5 bottom. If my primary expectation is wrong we should know today. This would involve a rather boring day of consolidating but with an upward bias back above the 4,000 area and maybe getting as high as 4024 - 4060 by early next week. This is represented in the BLUE count (which is my alternative expectation). What comes to mind today is the Old Market Adage of "The Markets NEVER bottom on a Friday". I still maintain having lost positive divergence on the daily chart, I feel a bottom is in the making...but it just got prolonged. That is why the BLUE count is NOT my primary as it completes this decline rather expeditiously. So, my primary expectation is we will face lower prices in the future before we have a sustainable rally. Having said that, we may end up prolonging this bottom even longer with a serious curve ball to market participants. This entire 5 month decline has been an A wave whereas we will spend the bulk of summer gradually advancing in a countertrend B wave, only to CRASH in the 3rd quarter into the low 3,000 level. This pathway is outlined in the above chart in GREEN (a second alternative expectation). Traders must always be looking for alternative outcomes to be best prepared. This is an SECONDARY alternative and as of right now I have no information to it's probability. Only that it is a rational explanation for a prolonged bottoming pattern. It would involve us advancing past 4060 - 4090....which seems unlikely to me. BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. Who said tracking the market's moves is easy? Best to All, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
S&P 500: Intraday Gap Trading OpportunitiesIn the 15-minute chart, we can see that there are two gaps which are not closed.  We name them Gap A and Gap B. Currently, we can see that price has formed an inverse head and shoulder pattern. If a breakout occur, we believe that price will retrace to fill the two gaps before it can drop to a new low. Trading Roadmap: First, we wait for a clear breakout from the neckline area. After a clear breakout, we will wait to capture the retracement at the neckline area. From there, we will enter our buy positions targeting the GAP (B) and GAP (A). Once the GAP (A) is filled, we think the level of $4300 would be a good sell zone because we can see many rejections have happened from that level. Price failling below the $3960 level before a breakout would invalidate this setup .
SP:SPXLong
by NicoBeau_Capital
US30: A Bullish Candlestick Pattern Appears at the Support LevelRecently, US30 has arrived at a key support level of $32000. As we forecasted in our previous US30 analysis, the price had more rooms to drop, eventually testing the yearly low of $32200 level. We can see that past prices have bounced up from this level. Clear bullish candlestick patterns can be seen to support the start of each correction. As we zoom in current 4-hour chart, we can see a doji-star followed by an engulfer candle. This is a bullish sign which could indicate the start of a correction from this level. US session today should provide more directional momentum. Seller should halt the sell entries as the bullish signals take place
U
by NicoBeau_Capital
A Lower Low Validates Sell Opportunities for Every RetracementPrevious US100 Chart Update: Last week, US100 has made a new lower low in the $12550 level. This provides a great opportunity to sell at every retracement. US Dollar Index has just made a new high since 2004. This further confirms that a bearish reversal for DXY is unlikely to take place in the near future. Therefore, we will be looking for potential sell opportunities in US100. Currrently, the price is consolidating in the new lower low area. Therefore, we have no immediate trading action for now. Our plan is to wait for price to retrace to the area of $13600 ~$13700, which is the level where all recent retracements have reached. From there, our first sell target will be in the price level from where the price has bounced up.
UShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
3
A Wide Horizontal Channel Provides A Great Buy OpportunitySince February, US100 has been moving in a $2200 wide range. This range is very wide, but the price has succeeded in reaching the resistance and support levels multiple times. This shows that an immediate break is not likely at key levels and might at least require multiple short-term re-tests before the levels can be broken. From 13000 support level, we can see that the price has bounced up twice from this level and the price rejections were quitely strong. After a doji candle was formed, a large bullish engulfing candle immediately followed, creating a strong bullish momentum. Therefore, as the current price goes near the support level, along with a RSI exhaustion, we need to carefully observe the price action. A preferable candlestick combination would be a doji star followed by a bullish engulfing candle. After a reversal formation is confirmed, we will set buy stop orders a few pips above the engulfing candle. Our first target will be in the area of 14260.
ULong
by NicoBeau_Capital
5
DAX 40: Bearish Pin Bar| 20-2-2022DAX 40: Bearish Pin Bar Signal Price Action: Price formed a Giant Bearish Pin Bar Signal just under the 15355 – 15486 short-term resistance area, late last week. Price briefly moved higher from the recent Bullish Pin Bar Signal that had formed, early last week, but didn’t follow through (We did not consider trading this signal as this market is forming lower lows within the short-term Bearish trend and the market is at risk of breaking below the 14830 – 14913 key support area). Potential Trade Idea: We are considering selling on a retracement higher to within the range of the current Bearish Pin Bar Signal, with wide risk management well above the high of Tailed Bar Signal.
DShort
by UnknownUnicorn393254
SP500 can retrace over the resistance? 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart reached as expected the weekly support. The price started a choppy move and create a dirty double bottom that could lead to a retracement move to the upside. How can we approach this scenario? If the price will break the descending trendline and move over the resistance stricture we will set a nice long according to the Plancton Academy rules. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by InkyGrip
20
SP500 4 possible scenariosSP500 has shown some weakness in the beginning of 2022... All of us know that one of the most important reason behind such a 12% drawdown is Fed hawkishness... At the time of writing smart money traders are pricing at least 5 interest rate hikes by the end of 2022, which is obviously putting pressure on the US stock market. ''Money today worth more than money tomorrow'' In addition to that we'll have QT most probably from the second quarter of this year. On the chart I am showing 4 possible scenarios (maybe someone will see even more) of price movement from technical POV. Fundamentally speaking I think and believe that we are going to see ATH this year around 4950-5000 zone at least. Also it is quite possible that we will see another lower low this year. This week we had great results from such tech giants as MSFT and AAPL, which in my opinion is and will remain one of the most important bullish supporter. We can see a very weak momentum and RSI or MACD indicators in the oversold territory. Also, huge volumes entered the market on the ''panic'' last week. I hope to see a strong rebound in the short-mid term. All the best, GIgor_021 #tothemoon
ULong
by GIgor_021