Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. During 1920s - 1930s we experienced a "pandemic event" in both scenarios *odd*. It created a shock crash followed by a pandemic rebound that the masses called "bubble" this is where valuations broke due to a black swan event. We use the SMA 2D (200) that shows the larger trend of the market and we...
The value of stock market indices is highly correlated with the amount of existing money. That is why to measure the economic cycles, I weight the value of the stock market with that of the money supply (M2), obtaining this chart. We see how after 2008, business cycles of about 4 years have been established and that, in addition, we are now in an already mature...
These charts will point out not only the difference between 4 year terms, but also the effect of the worldwide Coronavirus on different sectors. Just so you know, I am not advising for or against either candidate solely on what they could do or have done for a certain industry. Instead, this post aims to inform and point out the market's response during each...
Here's an intriguing observation I'd like to discuss. The increasing number of diamond 💎💎 alerts serves as a warning sign indicating an imminent significant market move. - What is the US2M? The M2 money supply is a measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, and other liquid...
We still have distortions from the monetary liquidity introduced during the pandemic. The bottom indicator is the 12-month rate of change. We can see an extreme expansion in M2 and subsequent contraction. On the other hand, we can see that the M2 line still shows a big stock of liquidity compared to the standard deviations. Each standard deviation on the chart...
Take some time to focus on the information and macro movement here and compare it with my notes. Why are leading economists and leading institutions fumbling? imagine comparing history prior to 2008 where Quantitative Easing did not exist. No standard macro indicator will be accurate due to the debasement of money that happen during the GFC, compare the SPY to...
SPX/USM2 is taking the lead and already testing 200 w moving avg, IXIC/USM2 still below 200 w moving avg. Looks like good things ahead...not for the economy, but for markets.
M2 Velocity is starting to increase due to deposits and M2 removing from the US system back into the economy (this indicates inflation is coming back harder) (this is an internal run on the dollar) (hence Gold and BTC taking off) SPX adjusted for the M2 is showing the market is undervalued + indicating further stimulus to get economic activity going again...
Starting off I really had this event happening around 2030s, but here we are in 2023 just as Weimar Germany in 1923 stuck with too much debt to gdp. I don't care what the debt comes from or is spent on when a government goes Weimar and allows debt to get too far from a countries GDP its the point of no return. Done. Settled. There is no coming back. So where...