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Has The U.S. Dollar DXY Peaked In 2023?After steadily climbing throughout 2021, the DXY saw a solid start to 2022. The US Dollar Index rallied from a low point of 94.63 in mid-January to a 20-year high of just over 114 in late September. DXY has experienced a significant drop since the publication of cooler-than-expected inflation data. Expectations of slower rate hikes from the Fed, and a lower potential terminal rate for US interest rates, have resulted in a repositioned dollar. I believe the USD will weaken further in 2023, as its significant overvaluation (based on the real effective exchange rate (REER)) can no longer be supported, once the Fed stops hiking, global growth shows signs of toughing and market volatility comes down. Technically, the dollar index DXY on the monthly timeframe closed below the 21-EMA for the first time since Aug. 2021, below the critical resistance represented in 102.80 level. Next downside target: 99.35 support level. (on the medium-to-long term)
TVC:DXYShort
by AlyaAkram
SPX Personal Notes - Jan. 23rd, 2023 - Feb. 10th, 2023SPX Personal Notes - Jan. 23rd, 2023 - Feb. 10th, 2023. Trend broke bearish channel, short analysis of what I'd be looking for in the next immediate days. The levels and zones should be fairly easy to follow, the blue drawings are from the weekly timeframe and above, the yellow are from any shorter timeframes. SPX was following a bearish channel that is labeled and can be seen if you scroll back. I assumed, at least in the short term, that if there was a daily break above and close, and a second daily open and close above the channel that this would represent a bullish trend flip. After this flip I began looking into longs starting on January 23rd, 2023. 'buy target wk 30-3' shows the area I would've been okay with entering long trades for this week. 'buy 6-10' and 'sell 6-10' (and respective above and below areas) show the areas that I would be comfortable with opening long or short trades this week or next week, given the current conditions and structure. 'dnt 6-10' is an area between two levels that does not have enough information or structure in this current moment for me to be confident with opening a trade in either direction. The buy/sell/dnt areas are not drawn to accurate timeframe scales. Sorry for the repost! All information and drawings are subject to change and are for educational purposes only. This is not to be taken as financial advice!
SP:SPXLong
by TonyAiello
2
US-Market Update - HeatmapThe Heatmap from yesterday ( SP500 ) shows the full story of last week. The stock market has been beaten down following additional FED hikes and announcement that more action can be expected from the FED. General Market Update Stock Market Falls Again The stock market was clobbered again Friday despite a weak pullback driven by the bulls. A few industry groups managed to shine even in the broader downward pressure. The S&P 500 ended the session down 1.1%. This means the benchmark index ceded more than 2% for the week and closed below the 50-day moving average. If it fails to rebound back above this key level it would be a worrying development. The Nasdaq composite ended the day down 1%. The tech-heavy index fared even worse than the S&P 500 as it skidded nearly 3% for the week. After the week's battering it has now lost more than 32% so far in 2022. The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day line the past two days. Volume surged on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE. This added distribution days to both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Decliners outnumbered advancers by around 2-1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
$SPX (S&P 500) – (Net High/Low +18)$SPX pulled back -0.69% this week after getting rejected by the highlighted trendline resistance. At the current juncture, $SPX remains above its rising 10/20-day moving average as it remains inside the month long uptrend channel, below its medium term downtrend line. The resistance to reclaim for further positivity in the market is at 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,850 level, breaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,700 level.
SP:SPXLong
by jfsrevg
$SPX (S&P 500) – (Net High/Low +88)$SPX staged an aggressive rally of +6.16% after better-than expected CPI data, rebounding off its 10/20-day moving average, The huge gains were a manifestation of pent-up hope that inflation has peaked and that the ultra-aggressive nature of the Fed's policy approach has also peaked. Briefly, total CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in October while core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month. The monthly changes left total CPI up 7.7% year-over-year, versus 8.2% in September, and core CPI up 6.3% year-over-year, versus 6.6% in September. The key takeaway from the report wasn't singular. It was manifold: (1) The report helped validate the peak inflation view. (2) The report is apt to compel the Fed to take a less aggressive rate-hike approach at the December FOMC meeting. (3) Some encouragement was borne out of the understanding that the shelter index (computed with a lag) contributed more than half of the monthly all items increase, suggesting price increases moderated in many other areas. $SPX currently trades inside a month long uptrend channel, below its medium term downtrend line. The resistance to reclaim for further positivity in the market is at 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,080, the current declining 200-day moving average level. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,800 level, breaching its rising 10 & 20-day moving average. Next support at 3,700 level.
SP:SPXLong
by jfsrevg
3
NASDAQ, 21ST SEPT MEETING ANALYSIS!!- REUPDATED!!due to the hikes in interest rates, US markets are not getting that freedom to freely enter the market and make their positions. the hike is creating a fear among the people of not entering into the market, and keep on people selling their positions, making markets keep falling. "A BULL RUN can only happen when all the news has been factored". this explanation is also set for the INDIAN markets too. and people do have a good and fresh mindset to enter into the markets. when such a thing happens US markets will have a boom. and this will gonna be happening soon. support lines are too mentioned. news is much factored in the indices, if by a chance nasdaq, broke the particular drawn supports to, then the next support will be forming around 10000, which is about 10% fall, but i dont feel now there is such more news aspects lefty to cover which will make the markets to fall with such a high number. final words, do watch out for 200 MOVING AVERGE, because from past few weeks, this indicator is acting a very good support for nasdaq.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight)$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) – (Net High/Low +17) The stock market came into this shortened week of trading on a three-week losing streak. It looked on Tuesday as if that streak might be extended to four weeks, but there was an abrupt turn in sentiment that powered a strong move in the major indices over the last three sessions from 3,900 support level. The losing streak was eventually broken and both the $SPX and $QQQ had reclaimed a posture back above their 50-day moving averages. The resilience to selling efforts in the face of negative developments has fostered a sense that the market has priced in the near-term rate hikes already after enduring three, consecutive weeks of losses. At Tuesday's low, the $SPX was down 10.1% from the intraday high it saw on August 16, so there has been an added sense that the market had gotten oversold and was due for a technical bounce. At the current juncture, the mid-term downtrend remains intact as $SPX remains trading below its declining 200-day moving average, and AVWAP from all time high. The support to watch for this week remains at 3,900 level, the recent lowest level. Bull Case: Reclaim above 4,212 AVWAP from all time high. Immediate resistance at declining 200-day moving average and downtrend line. Bear Case: Breakdown of 3,900 recent low. next support at 3,800.
AMEX:RSP
by jfsrevg
SPY - bullish (pitchfork analysis)This builds on my previous pitchfork analysis (see related idea which pointed to June 17th as the point of reversal and the start of the longer term bullish cycle). While that still stands strong, this is a smaller term analysis. SPY reached the intersection of 2 upper pitchfork lines (well, one bar off the intersection) after which it fell. Now it reached lower pitchfork line which is a likely point a reversal, turning bullish. SPY however may go down to the next red line before bouncing back up. Looking at other, longer term pitchfork lines I drew, SPY hasn't become fully bullish (that is, it reached higher order bottom pitchfork lines than the upper lines.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradersForecast
2
Russell 2000: historical drawdowns point to more downside riskThe Russell 2000 's drawdown from its peak has been important (-26%), but not as severe as those seen during the dot-com bubble in 2002, the 2008 financial crisis, and Covid-19 at the start of 2020, when the US small-cap index plummeted by more than 40%. To reverse the current downtrend of the Russell 2000 , the underlying causes must also be reversed, which are primarily rising inflation and the need to raise interest rates. US ECONOMY: MACRO OVERVIEW Inflation is now widespread and is not solely due to increases in energy prices, such as oil and natural gas . The United States still has a very tight labour market that requires a rebalancing of supply and demand, to avoid further wage pressures. There are currently nearly two job openings for every unemployed American ( FRED:JTSJOL / FRED:UNEMPLOY ) and the labor-force participation rate has not recovered to pre-Covid levels. The result is a strong pressure on salary growth , which is currently at 11% year-on-year. The combination of higher energy prices and wage pressures raises labour input costs for US firms. Those who are unable to pass on higher costs to their customers will see their profit margins dwindle dangerously. In addition, since the Fed is firmly committed to raising interest rates , higher borrowing costs represent an additional drag on the growth outlook of small-cap firms. RUSSELL 2000 index: outlook The market believes that a recession will cause the Federal Reserve to slow its rate hikes or even reverse its policy stance. However, the Fed's focus remains solely on inflation, as the labour market remains close to full employment. To rebalance the labour market, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates aggressively. The short/medium term outlook on the Russell 2000 index remains bearish until the Fed signals a change, which is unlikely unless there is a major recession. A 40% drop from the peak would be a good entry point for opportunistic buyers to step in, indicating a wide bullish positioning clean-up. Such a level of drawdown corresponds to a Russell 2000 index level of 1,450.
TVC:RUT
by Capitalcom
1
≈ 5% SWINGTRADE NDQ10012150 to 11550 5% Swing Trade 600 Points Trade Opportunity. The bottom of this tremendous bear market could be in already. Nobody knows. if this was a short squeeze, the market will decline, right? If this was THE bottom or a temporary bottom, the likelihood that even if this was the start of a bull market, after a few days of straight upward movement, a correction would also be normal. Having this mind, the wedge pattern, which could fulfill itself will underline this theory. So, of course, anything can happen, but I think the odds are not too bad for this one. This is no financial advice, only sharing thoughts to our community! Let me know what ya´ll think Best, gqt
UShort
by GER-Quality-Trades
Incoming months for S&P500A mid-year check of the S&P500 futures ES1! show an uncanny resemblance to the beginning of 2008. This has been reiterated by many already over the recent months, and it appears to continue as outlined by others too. In the monthly log chart, there is an eerie resemblance that might bring the S&P500 to 2600-2800 levels, if by a similar magnitude to 2008-2009. Market conditions are different, but even on a longer term monthly chart, you see the uncanny comparison. Do not know what to make out of this, but on a probability basis, only two major outcomes... First, is that it would follow similarly, hence 2600-2800 becomes a reality. Second, it would break the pattern, and this would take something rather extraordinary to trigger it. Either way, in the coming months, we can be expecting a single or a series of extraordinary events that would put the above two outcome scenarios in play... watch for it!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader