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US Market Technicals Ahead (25 October – 29 October 2021)Investors will be preparing for the busiest week of earnings season, with focus turning to reports from several tech giants including Apple ($AAPL), Alphabet ($GOOGL), Amazon ($AMZN), Microsoft ($MSFT) and Facebook ($FB). There are also some key economic reports in the coming week, including a first look at U.S. third quarter GDP (Advance GDP) on Thursday. Optimism is growing that after some large concessions, Democrats will get Senators Manchin and Sinema on board with President Biden’s economic package. The US economic outlook next year is still looking bright as pent up demand and more stimulus will spur growth. The European Central Bank will be holding its latest meeting against a background of persistent inflation pressures. Evergrande has bought another week to deal with the looming debt crisis casting a shadow over the world’s second largest economy and the Bitcoin rollercoaster rolls on. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. $SPX (S&P 500) The benchmark index $SPX continued its recovery with a gain of +1.64% (+73.53 points), closing the week at 4,544 level, a new all time high closing. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,450 50DMA level. Big tech earnings Four out of the five FAANG stocks are set to report earnings during the week – Facebook ($FB) is set to report on Monday, followed by Google parent Alphabet ($GOOGL) on Tuesday, while Apple ($AAPL) and Amazon ($AMZN) are reporting on Thursday. FAANG’s stellar growth and heavy weighting in the S&P 500 has given them an outsized impact on the broader equities market, propelling markets higher for over than a decade. Strong earnings results could help tech stocks broaden the lead they have established over value stocks in a market tug of war, with stock investors caught between a strong economic recovery and surging commodity prices on one side, and rising Treasury yields and inflation on the other. U.S. GDP Data on Thursday is expected to show the extent of the headwinds that hit the U.S. economy in the third quarter. Economists are forecasting that GDP growth slowed to 2.8% from 6.7% in the previous three months. The impact of the delta variant, along with rising prices, supply chain strains and labor shortages contributed to the soft patch in growth, but those effects should dissipate in the fourth quarter. Other economic data to watch during the week includes reports on durable goods orders on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday and personal income and expenditures on Friday. Friday’s data includes the core PCE price index, rumored to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure. Economic data will be closely watched as it is coming just before the Federal Reserve’s November meeting the following week, where the central bank is expected to announce plans to begin cutting back on asset purchases, an important first step towards eventual rate hikes. ECB meeting The ECB is to hold its next policy meeting on Thursday amid tensions between officials over how long an inflation surge in the euro area is likely to last and whether the bank should tweak monetary policy as a result. At its last meeting in September policymakers deferred a decision on bond purchases to December, but since then euro area inflation has surged to a 13-year high amid supply bottlenecks and soaring energy prices. The Fed is likely to start tapering in November and the Bank of England has indicated that interest rate hikes are coming soon so the question is, will the ECB follow? Thursday’s post policy meeting press conference with ECB head Christine Legarde will likely give investors a clue into December’s decision. Evergrande buys time Reuters reported Sunday that China’s Evergrande had resumed work on more than 10 projects in six cities, including Shenzhen. The report came after the company appeared to avert a default last week, when it made a last-minute bond coupon payment, but there have still been no reports on progress about a comprehensive restructuring of the company’s massive debt pile. China’s second-largest property developer is mired in a debt crisis, with more than $300 billion in liabilities. The crisis at Evergrande has spread across the broader Chinese property sector, which economists say makes up around 30% of the economy, leading to a string of default announcements, rating downgrades, and slumping corporate bonds. Bitcoin volatility Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $67,016 on Wednesday, rising above April’s record propelled by bets the first U.S. bitcoin futures exchange traded funds would pave the way for more money to pour into digital assets. The new ETFs track bitcoin futures rather than the cash price. The new peak came after the world’s largest digital currency had struggled in recent months, briefly dipping below $30,000 as China cracked down on digital currencies. Bitcoin advocates believe the onset of ETFs will support prices. Others tout the digital currency as a hedge against inflation and say that is a bigger factor in its rally, but sceptics say it is more of a symptom. Either way, bitcoin volatility looks set to continue.
SP:SPXLong
by jfsrevg
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (11 October – 15 October 2021)Third-quarter earnings season gets underway with major banks; JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Bank of America ($BAC), Wells Fargo ($WFC), Morgan Stanley ($MS) and Goldman Sachs ($GS) reporting later in the week. It is also a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front with inflation driven US Consumer Price Index report (Wednesday) for September will will be closely watched while minutes from the last FOMC meeting (Thursday) is also set to be under Investors’ radar for further cues on the Fed’s tapering timeline. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index $SPX minimized its previously week loss with a technical rebound yielding at modest gain of +0.66% (+28.6 points), closing the week at 4,390 level. $SPX remains trading below its 20D and 50D Moving Averages. The past weeks of trading session have established several signs of fatigue in this tech driven rally; $SPX Short Term MA Crossover of 20 Days and 50 Days (technically known as ‘Death Cross’), last observed on 30th September 2020 $SPX multi-month long uptrend channel violation, observation of first lower high and lower low established below 20D and 50D MA over the period Up-Down Volume ratio is significantly much lesser than 1.0 over the past 30 days average (A ratio greater than 1.0 shows more volume on the upside than on the downside. A reading under 1.0 shows sellers have the upper hand.) With $SPX currently trading below its short term major MAs, it is important to remain risk adverse and diligent The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week remains at 4,270 immediate support level. A breakdown of 4,270 support level would point to further weakness for the month of October, which is considered to be a time when stocks historically decline, giving rise to the term the ‘October Effect.’ Bank earnings Some of the world’s biggest banks kick off U.S. earnings, with investors focused on global supply chain problems, labor shortages and the upcoming tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion monthly stimulus. Banks smashed profit estimates in the second quarter as the economy rebounded, with Wells Fargo ($WFC), Bank of America ($BAC), Citigroup ($C) and JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) posting a combined $33 billion in profits. That momentum likely slowed in the third quarter; earnings for financials are forecast to grow by 17.4%, versus nearly 160% in Q2, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv. U.S. data The key U.S. economic report to watch this week is Wednesday’s data on consumer price inflation for September. While the rate of price increases has moderated inflation is still higher than it was pre-pandemic with the surge in demand after the economy reopened pushing up prices. Economists expect the consumer price index to match August’s 0.3% monthly increase and the 5.3% annual gain. Producer price inflation figures are due out on Thursday, followed by data on retail sales on Friday. Retail sales are expected to be pulled lower because of a plunge in vehicle sales amid supply chain bottlenecks, but excluding vehicles, retail sales are forecast to increase. Fed minutes The Fed is to publish its September meeting minutes on Wednesday amid expectations that it will begin tapering asset purchases before the end of this year, an important first step towards eventual rate hikes. Friday’s weaker-than-expected September jobs report did little to alter expectations the Fed could begin to scale back stimulus by the years end. Though the economy added just 194,000 jobs in September upward revisions to prior months’ data meant that all told the economy has now regained half of the jobs deficit it faced in December, compared with pre-pandemic employment levels. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that he’d only need to see a “decent” September U.S. jobs report to be ready to begin to taper in November.
U
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (4 October – 8 October 2021)Data released last Friday reflects a faster pace of growth than expected in September for US Manufacturing and ISM Manufacturing PMIs. However, it’s likely that investor focus will return to worries about inflation, along with Federal Reserve tightening on the horizon. This Friday’s monthly US employment report will be adding to the potential market jitters, which will probably show job growth acceleration in September even with raised concerns about the rising COVID-19 cases. Although Fed Chair Powell has tried to distance policy from any single labor market metric in the past, he has clearly identified the incoming nonfarm payroll report as a key to the tapering decision at his press conference following the September meeting. Markets are also still contending with ongoing worries about China’s Evergrande Group (HK:3333), as the giant real estate developer continues to struggle with its massive debt overload. In short, there are a plethora of themes that could pressure markets as the first full week of October trading commences. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index $SPX ended the final week of September with a weekly loss of -2.15% (-95.9 points), with its trading volume reaching a pinnacle that was last observed in early May this year. The past month of trading session have established several signs of fatigue in this tech driven rally; $SPX Short Term MA Crossover of 20 Days and 50 Days (technically known as ‘Death Cross’), last observed on 30th September 2020 $SPX multi-month long uptrend channel violation, observation of first lower high and lower low established below 20D and 50D MA over the period Up-Down Volume ratio is significantly much lesser than 1.0 over the past 30 days average (A ratio greater than 1.0 shows more volume on the upside than on the downside. A reading under 1.0 shows sellers have the upper hand.) With $SPX currently trading below its short term major MAs, it is important to remain risk adverse and diligent The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,270 immediate support level. A breakdown of 4,270 support level would point to further weakness for the month of October, which is considered to be a time when stocks historically decline, giving rise to the term the ‘October Effect.’
UShort
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (5 July – 9 July 2021)US Markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Independence Day. Investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps after a hawkish shift prompted market turbulence last month. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) will also publish the minutes of its latest meeting, while China will release what will be closely watched inflation figures. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index $SPX rallies furthered its all time high establishment, gaining +1.48% (+63.4 points) to close at 4,439 level during the week. The price ascend have allowed $SPX to break out of its trend channel resistance for the 3rd time in since February 2021. It is important to remain cautious of the existing rally, as every breakout of the highlighted channel is met with price-volume divergence weakness, along with a correction towards its channel support. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,220 level; a resistance turned support level, also an approximate of 4 ATR14 away from existing volatility, which is unlikely to be tested this week. Fed minutes The minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, when officials opened talks on tapering bond-buying and indicated interest rate increases could come sooner than previously anticipated, are due to be released on Wednesday. The minutes are coming on the heels of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which showed that the U.S. created the most jobs in 10 months in June, indicating that the economy closed out the second quarter with strong momentum as the reopening continued. The robust data did little to ease concerns that a strong recovery and rising wages could prompt the Fed to begin unwinding its easy money policies sooner than expected. ISM services data The ISM index of service industry activity is set to be released on Tuesday and is expected to show continued strong growth after hitting a record high in May amid a reopening made possible by vaccinations against the coronavirus. The report could also underline ongoing labor constraints as hiring continues to lag, leading companies to offer higher wages to attract staff. ECB minutes The ECB is to publish the minutes of its June policy meeting on Thursday. ECB-watchers will also be on alert for news of several meetings due to take place in the coming weeks as part of the banks review of its monetary policy strategy. The bank wants to revamp its inflation target – currently set out close to but not above 2% – and is aiming to get the review done by September. On Wednesday, euro zone powerhouse German is to publish industrial production figures and the European Commission is to release updated economic forecasts for the European Union. China inflation China is to release data on both consumer price inflation and producer price inflation on Friday. Market watchers will be paying close attention to the cost of raw materials, which have soared due to higher commodity prices, and whether these increases are being passed onto the consumer. Prices are jumping in China and around the world, adding to fears that a wave of inflation could threaten the global economic recovery if it continues.
U
by jfsrevg
BTC GOLD OR US30/S&P50018 Months after COVID-19 surfaced, the world economy is on its knee's. We are looking at inflation close to that of 2008/2009 in many countries. A recipe for disaster. Stocks struggle earlier this year as many expected inflation to be sky high since Uncle Sam at the FED printed 21% of all circulating dollar in history. Yes you heard that, Since the dollars creation 21% of the dollar that exists was printed due to covid. Weird, were is the money going? Everyone still broke right? People have less, well i can say for sure the poor(us) are definitely poorer and the rich well unaffected or richer as usual. Covid was a beautiful beautiful scam. Not saying it was fake as thats pure stupidity, but for sure countries and governments decided to monetize this tragedy. While most lost family and friends the rich made more as usual. The evidence is clear. Regardless, US bonds yields which we expected to react to the inflation news took the opposite affect. Instead we saw NASDAQ jump an insane 1.7%. Which in stock terms is insane. This is due to the fed promising to keep borrowing interest rates at zero. Essentially the US market which leads the world, sadly, (like the way BTC is leading crypto again sadly) is surviving on printing more. The government or the FED to be more accurate print money and buy stocks and borrow to the rich owners of business's. This is not a secret its called QUANTITIVE EASING. There is no evidence this works, only been tried once in 2008/9 but its not clear if it made us recovery since many techniques were tried. All in All most may have got here and thought what is this young man waffling about. Well look, The US market is showing strength when it really shouldn't i don't believe this quantitive easing will work and if it does its a matter of delaying the explosion of the bubble which is the American stock market. Also the terrible USD will probably lose a lot of value which it has been doing for years now. So WHATS THE SOLUTION YOU ASK? B T C. Love it or hate it. It is digital gold. Anyone disagree's with me is doing so out of pure ignorance. BTC is clearly more significant than gold in all aspects of Money storage or hedging against inflation. The S&P500 which was the old hedge will go to shit and if it doesn't 5-10% a year isn't that appealing is it? Long term BTC has proven to be the best hedge and In my opinion is better valued than the bubble which is the US stock market. I also believe in buying gold as a hedge. All in all we MAY see some what of a super cycle with this terrible US mess of a market which is slowly unravelling. 2020-2021 will have movies about it. How so many profited from Covid crash and the market crash which is approaching. Meme stocks and crypto will feature. Be a part. Anyways ima go back to enjoying the sun.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ridhabouh99
1
Dow Jones US30: Potential Crash?Currently @ 34645 This is a long term analysis on the Dow Jones In the month of May we have seen high volatility in the Dow Jones, which was fueled by inflation fears in US, seeing the Dow lose +1500 points just in 2 days Though the Fed has assured the public & investors that they have everything under control & their tools will be able to manage any outcome. Regardless of this statement some still fear the worst & predict another market crash due to hyper-inflation if the Fed's tools fail. That been said lets look at what technical analysis is showing us @ the moment. We love to use Harmonics as they help us spot reversals and help us capitalize on them before they happen. Do note Harmonics are not always accurate just like any other indicator but their accuracy is notable. Now looking @ the 1W / weekly chart we have a bearish harmonic, though not yet confirmed But this shows a possible reversal & if we look @ the last bearish harmonic on the 1W chart is was last year Feb - March whereby Dow Jones fell by 10,000 points due to the pandemic Now if history repeats itself & we see another fall this time due to something else e.g. hyper-inflation we would expect Dow Jones to fall to at most 23,000 before recovering. The last Bullish Harmonic is based on our prediction. link to previous analysis below Do note this is just an analysis based on technical analysis & current events. All investments involve risk, our analysis and trading strategy does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
CAPITALCOM:US30
by fxspott
US Market Technicals Ahead (10 May – 14 May 2021)It is a relatively busy week ahead in the US on the economic data front, as investors will turn their attention to U.S. inflation figures in the coming week after Friday’s surprisingly disappointing April jobs report. Signs of rising inflation pressures could reignite the debate over how soon the Federal Reserve may begin to tighten monetary policy. Energy traders will be monitoring the shutdown of the largest U.S. fuel pipeline leading to an increase in gasoline and oil prices.. The tug of war between value and growth will likely continue in the equities market as earnings season winds down. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) traded higher with a gain +1.08% (+45.2 points), recovering most of the week losses with a single Friday session as disappointing payroll report eased worries about Federal Reserve reducing its support anytime soon. $SPX is currently at all time high of 4,236 level. $SPX daily price action have successfully broke out of its consolidation highlighted, with implied volatility remains stabilized from its low of 40 points/day that was highlighted last week. The immediate support to watch for $SPX remains at 4,110 level, a minor classical support level turned trend channel support. Inflation fears Wednesday’s consumer price index figures for April get top billing on the U.S. economic calendar this week amid concerns among investors that rising price pressures could prompt the Fed to start scaling back monetary support measures sooner. While inflation is on the rise, Fed policymakers have repeatedly said the increase is due to temporary factors. The inflation numbers are coming in the wake of data on Friday showing U.S. job growth slowed sharply last month, with the economy adding just 266,000 jobs, far short of forecasts for 978,000. The unexpectedly weak data raised doubts over the expectations of some investors that the Fed could start tapering stimulus measures later this year. Pipeline shutdown Top U.S. fuel pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline has shut its entire network, without saying when it would reopen, after a cyber-attack involving ransomware on Friday. Colonial is the main source of gasoline for the East Coast and also serves some of the largest U.S. airports. The incident has highlighted how vulnerable U.S. energy infrastructure is to hackers. A prolonged outage of the network could trigger price increases at gasoline pumps ahead of peak summer driving season, a potential blow to U.S. consumers and the economy as pandemic restrictions are eased. The outage could also potentially affect oil refineries on the Gulf Coast if refiners are forced to reduce crude processing because part of the distribution system is offline. Stocks tug of war While some tech stocks got a boost Friday in the wake of the disappointing jobs report, some portfolio managers say that blow-out earnings from several large tech companies over the last few weeks are not enough to keep making outsized bets on the sector. Instead, those fund managers say that they are continuing to rotate into value and cyclical stocks - whose fortunes are closely tied to economic conditions - in anticipation that the economic recovery will be longer and more gradual than originally anticipated. That trend looks set to continue and investors will also be looking at quarterly results from companies such as Disney ($DIS), Marriott ($MAR), Airbnb ($ABNB) and Tyson Foods ($:TSN), as a first-quarter earnings season which has been notable for far higher-than-expected profits winds down.
ULong
by jfsrevg
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL- ELEVATOR DOWN 11%DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX 1Hour Timeframe Short term idea: SHORTING Hello there and welcome! This one will be a quicky: -RSI: We can observe, RSI making lower lows as well as lower highs. The price -Volume: Volume is decent, but declining. It is weaker than the days before. Might turn to a bearish trend, when it first lowers and then rises while dropping to the next support zones, at what point we want to see high volume again, to determine a (temporary bottom). -Fibonacci Tool: The Index is at the 50% retracement exactly. While we dropped down from the all-time high, this is the retracement. In this retracement, we are currently back up 50%, which is an absolutely normal counter-move of a big bearish drop. In most cases, the bear trend continues. I would not give too much about the fib-levels, though many people using it, there might be some information about market behavior. -As you can see, the market tried to push through the 50% retracement level 4 TIMES. This is the fourth time, and each attempt became weaker and weaker... Expectations: I expect a decline to 20800 in the coming days! From that point, we will manage our trades again and rethink! Have a nice day, your german-quality-trader
TVC:DJIShort
by GER-Quality-Trades
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (7 Dec – 11 Dec 2020)The US stock market reopens tomorrow, entering into the second week of December. Many market participants would probably look forward to their socially-distanced holiday gathering without wild swings to worry about. The benchmark index rallied a further 1.4% (+50.9 points), breaking its all time high on friday’s trading session. The same applies to all the remaining 3 major indices (Dow Jones 30, NASDAQ Composite 100 and Russell 2000). This breakout of all time high has successfully negated the Bearish Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern (highlighted) that has been in play for the past three weeks. At the current junction, S&P 500 is trading within a very tight 3% trend channel range established since 10th November. As market tends to go through a mid-December low; coupled with low volume trade as we are approaching the holiday season, we are likely to see minor decline during the next two weeks. This is not concerning if the decline respects within the established uptrend channel highlighted. The immediate support to watch is 3,588 classical support level.
U
by jfsrevg
1
SPY fork pattern analysisI published another fork pattern idea earlier today (see related idea) on the daily chart pointing out how the fork patterns predicted the lasts 2 major market falls and the starting of the recovery after the previous fall and likely the point where recovery starts for the current fall (which was yesterday). I went to 1H chart to get a feel for where the market is going. You can see (for the 1st fork on th chart) the market fell when it reached the top fork line and that yesterday SPY went below the bottom fork line (for the second fork). The 3rd fork, meant to predict the market direction, is a bit premature: it's only based on 2 days of price action and it's rather narrow. Price action over the next days will likely go beyond the fork and will expand it. However, the fork may still give a valuable idea about the upcoming trend. Thus I predict that the SPY will reach the last red circle on the graph (when the last fork will reach the top line of the 2nd fork). That is around 342-343 on Oct. 13. As I said, this is preliminary, as the price action over the next days will likely expand the fork and thus, that point of intersection may come sooner. Whenever it comes, I find it rather likely that SPY will have a little, temporary fall at that point. That may happen instead when the last fork reaches the green line of the 2nd fork (where the 1st red circle is, around 339 price level on Oct. 7) but I find that less likely. Conclusion: go long. "Like it" if you like it! Add your comments, questions or concerns if you have any. DISCLAIMER: Security trading involves substantial risk of loss. My analysis is not trading advice. Do your own research first and/or consult a financial advisor. I'm not responsible for any losses you may incur following my analysis.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradersForecast
4
SPY fork pattern indicating the fall ended and recovery startedIf you draw the highest resistance trend line since the recovery started (the blue line in the graph) and from the high before the last one (where the red line starts, on April 29) draw a fork to the last high on that resistance trend line (on June 28) and to the latest low after that high (on the green line, on June 29) this fork clearly shows that SPY fell right after it opened and went over the the upper fork line (on 9/2) and, if the pattern holds, yesterday when it went below the upper line of the fork will be the point where recovery starts and the market will go up. Conclusion: go long. "Like it" if you like it! Add your comments, questions or concerns if you have any. DISCLAIMER: Security trading involves substantial risk of loss. My analysis is not trading advice. Do your own research first and/or consult a financial advisor. I'm not responsible for any losses you may incur following my analysis.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradersForecast
S&P500 SITUATION UPDATE| 8 DOLLARS TILL ALL TIME HIGH ON SPY| Me and the boys are mesmerized by this unstoppable "Ride of the Valkyries" against all the laws of physics, economics and common sense, which is in limited supply in the contrast to its name these days. Never before the common phrase "the rich get richer as the poor keep getting poorer" been visualized so brutally, namely: SPY is 8 dollars away from reaching new all time high, coupled with the news of 30% downturn in the GDP. Anyhow, thats what the promise of the unlimited liquidity from the FED means on practice. However, the question is: after the new all time high, whats next? When the market reaches the previous high, which might be somehow justified by front-running the recovery, I fail to come up with any reason to justify the market getting higher than this mark. The economy will recover no sooner than 2021 by the most optimistic predictions. And I am in the camp of those who are convinced that we are to see a massive recession ahead of us. However, I will reiterate my point, which I expressed here before: shorting SPY before a clear bearish signal is outright insane. I hope you all got enough popcorn as this show seems to have no end in sight, completely embracing the Maos formula: the worse the better. The turning point it seems will be the end of the presidential elections, which, no matter the result will give the market some clarity as to the further direction of the US and the World. +It seems like the vaccine will be available by that time too. 4 more months to go till November. Lets see how it goes! Thank you for reading, like and subscribe>> I'll keep you updated!
AMEX:SPYLong
by ProSignalsFx
3
SPX - Rejected off 3200 resistance againSPX500USD for the second time was rejected off 3200 resistance, but not as violent as a first time. First good support is around 3130, ultimate support is 3000, but I doubt it will get this low this time. Cautiously slightly more bearish here 'coz still under resistance. But not rush into positions here. Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thank you. Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Bitduke