Bearish drop?USO/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 70.64
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 71.66
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 69.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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USO
$USO crash before the bull market starts?I originally thought that we'd see a move higher off the bounce from $69, however the chart has now morphed and looks more bearish than it did over the summer.
If we break the trend line to the downside, then I think it's likely that we can see a crash to the $40 region before the bull market in oil really starts.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming months.
Opening (IRA): USO January 17th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.72 break even.
Comments: Dinking and doinking on USO at /CL <$70/bbl.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 66.72
Max Profit: 1.38
ROC at Max: 2.07%
50% Max: .69
ROC at 50% Max: 1.04%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; add if I can get in at better break evens/strike prices.
Opening (IRA): USO Jan 17th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.89 break even.
Comments: With 42 DTE in the January monthly, adding a "rung" to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on at the 68, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The ROC at max isn't stellar here with the usual metric I'm looking for being at least 2.0%.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.89/share
Max Profit: 1.11
ROC at Max: 1.71%
50% Max: .56
ROC at 50% Max: .86%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test of my take profit at 65.45.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.48 debit.
Comments: Back into the slippery stuff with /CL trading at 70.48. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
My basic approach here is to dink and donk on the underlying when /CL is at $70/bbl. or below.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 66.48
Max Profit: 1.52
ROC at Max: 2.29%
50% Max: .76
ROC at 50% Max: 1.15%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out short call on take profit test. I'll also look to add "rungs" should I be able to do so at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.74 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens than what I currently have on ... . Selling the -75 call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.74
Max Profit: 1.26
ROC at Max: 1.95%
50% Max: .63
ROC at 50% Max: .97%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out call on test.
Opening (IRA): USO Oct 18th 69 Monied Covered Call... for a 67.44 debit.
Comments: This isn't as low as I wanted to get in, but the short call is below where I would've entered would have to have been more patient and waited for 70. In any event, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.44/share
Max Profit: 1.56 ($156)
ROC at Max: 2.31%
ROC at 50% Max: .78 ($78)
ROC at 50% Max: 1.16%
Take profit at 50% max; roll in-profit short call to maintain net delta <30.
Opened (IRA): USO Dec 20th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.26 debit.
Comments: (Late Post). High IV (67.7% as of Tuesday close) + weakness.
Added a "rung" to my existing position at a strike better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.26
Max Profit: 1.74
ROC at Max: 2.84%
50% Max: .87
ROC at 50% Max: 1.42%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out in-profit short call on test of take profit. Here, the 50% max take profit would be .87 + 61.26 or 62.13.
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 65 Covered Call... for a 62.41 break even.
Comments: High IVR/IV (79/51) plus weakness. Adding a rung to my USO position out in December at break evens better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 62.41
Max Profit: 2.59
ROC at Max: 4.15%
50% Max: 1.30
ROC at 50% Max: 2.07%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; look to roll out the short call on test.
Opening (IRA): USO Nov 15th 67 Covered Call... for a 65.26 debit.
Comments: Adding a rung at strike prices better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 65.26
Max Profit: 1.74 ($174)
ROC at Max: 2.67%
50% Max: .87
ROC at 50% Max: 1.33%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out the short call on side test.
Opening (IRA): USO Nov 15th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.27 debit.
Comments: Adding to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on (the Nov 15th 67's and the Dec 20th 69's). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.27/share
Max Profit: 1.73 ($173)
ROC at Max: 2.82%
50% Max: .87 ($87)
ROC at 50% Max: 1.41%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on side test.