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USO

Crude to spike over USD150 this time...Crude aooears to have broken out of trendline resistance, particularly on the daily chart. Closing today above 107.60 would launch the next rally. Fibonacci projections set target about USD165, about mid-June. The weekly chart candlestick is also forming what might be a bullish candlestick with a long shadow at the bottom, suggesting upward momentum. Daily technicals are already indicating the inevitable. Follow through would also mean some rather significant events in either disruption, conflict, or massive return of consumption. Brace brace brace!!!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
5
United States Oil Fund (USA: $USO) Is Still Mega-Bullish! 🔥The United States Oil Fund® LP (USO) is an exchange-traded security whose shares may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca. USO’s investment objective is for the daily changes, in percentage terms, of its shares’ net asset value (NAV) to reflect the daily changes, in percentage terms, of the spot price of light sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract. Specifically, USO seeks for the average daily percentage change in USO’s net asset value, for any period of 30 successive valuation days, to be within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period.
AMEX:USOLong
by Bullishcharts
1
Is BTC Inflation Proof? Is BTC Solid against Inflation? Well, my little inquisitive love muffins, let’s find out! What is inflation? Inflation refers to the increase in prices of goods AND services within an economy. It is commonly referred to devaluation of the dollar. What causes inflation? Complex question that maybe many don’t agree on but in essence; - Excessive money printing by the Federal Government (i.e. the Venezuela crises and kind of like North America now); - Central bank policy, regulations and laws (i.e. 1970s inflation crises) - Availability of goods and services (i.e. currently) - List goes on Theoretical basis for the position that BTC is inflation proof? I think different arguments have been advanced for this, but in general, under the law in North America (Canada and the USA), BTC and Cryptocurrency is not actually considered a currency. It is classified as a “good” (and there is a reason for this, that being TAXATION! If the Government recognized Crypto as a currency, they would not be able to legally tax you on it, so you can BET that Crypto will NEVER be considered a currency!!!). Yes, you can use Crypto to buy things, but at the end of the day, policy and regulation views Crypto as a “good” that a person “owns”. And thus, the presumption would be, if it is a good and inflation causes prices of goods to rise, then BTC should, technically, rise with the price of goods and services. So is BTC inflation proof? Quick answer is, not really in the way that I think people intended it to be. But so far, sort of. Long answer, below: What is Cryptocurrency, really? Its interesting, I was excited to write this post because in law school I had to write a legal brief on what the classification of Ethereum should be under the law in Canada (I argued a security like a stock). And what’s interesting is Crypto in general and BTC generally behave like a stock! And particularly they behave like a growth stock. They grow with time and peoples’ interest, and continued investment of holders (or should I say HOLDERS? Is that the term?). I recently did an analysis on BTC where I briefly compared it to SPY (S&P 500) and we saw BTC had much better growth than SPY but was behaving quite similarly to SPY. And BTC and other Cryptos have all they key makings of a stock, you can hold them on a exchange, trade them either on an exchange or through blockchain, buy, sell, short, long, hold, etc. While, it is not IDENTICAL to a stock, the key makeup is there (at least, legally and technically). And, perhaps unfortunately or perhaps not so unfortunately, depending on your stance, BTC and Crypto has begun to follow the market almost to a T. In preparing to write this, I correlated BTC to 3 other equities, SPY (S&P 500 ETF), USO (United States Oil ETF), GLD (Gold ETF) and VNQ (Real-Estate Index ETF). I will post the raw statistical data in the image below. In this chart, we look at the Pearson Correlation (or R value, you linear regression analysts will know this well!) to determine the strength of the relationship. And we see, BTC has a HUGELY strong POSITIVE relationship to SPY. What does that mean? It means, we can expect BTC to follow SPY fairly consistently. In fact, from this degree of a relationship, I can actually use BTC data to accurately predict SPY data (like highs, lows, ranges, etc.) without even looking at SPY data. That is how strong the relationship is! Inversely, we see a really and NEGATIVE relationship between BTC and OIL, and that is shared between SPY and OIL, which means that Oil will do the INVERSE of SPY and BTC. SPY and BTC go up, Oil will likely go down, etc. So what does it all mean? Well, it means a couple of things: - BTC behaves like a growth stock. This, in general, is neutral, it’s neither good nor bad. And I would argue its kind of good because we buy BTC with the aspiration of it “going to the moon”. - BTC is vulnerable to market conditions. There is just no way to deny this unfortunately. The relationship BTC has wit the market is undeniable statistically and I would be feeding you lies if I said “its okay, its completely independent of the market, you will be fine”. Because, the statistics are strong and compelling here. - That said, just because BTC follows the market, does not mean it will behave in the same way as other growth stocks. This is the area that we still don’t know for sure. As of right now, BTC is actually trading normally (you can refer to my other post), meaning that it has not sold off to a point where BTC would be considered “negative growth”. IF you look at PayPal stock, that stock has sold off into negative growth. Same with NFLX. BTC has not! It is still holding its, let’s call it “statistically expected” value based on its position as a growth “good”. Just because BTC follows SPY, does not mean that the annualized return rates and value are identical (GLD has technically outperformed SPY and it still is fairly strongly linked to SPY). It just means, the behaviour is similar. And because it currently retains its expected value, we can say that so far it has technically warded off inflation. Yes, there is some devaluation here, but this devaluation cannot be attributed to inflation alone at this point in time, because this devaluation is a “statistically expected” happening in the lifespan of BTC, whether there be inflation or not (I am trying to explain this as simply as I can haha). - The other thing is, BTC and Crypto has a sizeable fan base and a sizeable portion of the population that may think that this will aid in holding off inflation. Thus we may see more people place larger holdings into BTC and Crypto in general during times of high inflation, which would ultimately cause the price to rise and thus, at least at face value, appear to be warding off inflation dramas. Conclusion So, should you buy BTC to ward off inflation? My answer is, it depends. If you are TRULY concerned about inflation and inflation alone and you have a sizeable net worth that you want to guard against inflation and you are nearing retirement or you may need a sizeable portion of this money in the near future, then no. The answer is no. You should follow conventional recommendations of financial analysts and invest in Gold, commodities, bonds, etc. Consult with a Financial Planner for sure, but I wouldn’t recommend BTC. Anyone else, my motto is diversification! I wouldn’t put all my eggs in one basket, but investing in BTC or Ethereum or Doge, it wouldn’t hurt. I personally have a sizeable holding in Tezos (XTZ) that I continually add to every once in a while and stake. DO I think its going to protect me against inflation? No, probably not, but that’s not the point. I believe in it, I like it, I think it has potential and if it does ward off inflation, well, great! At the end of the day, there is more chance that Tezos or BTC will increase dramatically in price than say Gold or commodities. Yes, Gold is a stable investment, but its not going to go “to the moon” anytime soon. That's it! Thanks for reading! These are my opinions that I have drawn from a look at math and chart based data. It is not financial advice. If you are truly concerned about inflation, I would advise speaking to a financial advisor. These markets can be difficult to navigate! Let me know your questions/comments/critiques below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Steversteves
10
Crude spikes... how now, brown cow?And so, Crude spiked, and well above 100 as expected . This defying feat was not quite aligned to the weekly technical indicators, I must say. Nonetheless, the weekly candle itself had bullish lower tails and ended the week near the top. So, appears to continue spiking... perhaps above USD120, at least. The daily chart is rather interesting to me... on Mon, it was resting on a support and did look like it was going to continue the slide, having broken the 55EMA. Then the next three days totally about turned and started spiking. In doing so, it broke out of a trendline (or triangle), and the projections for the upside target is about USD140, at the end of April, or as we turn into May. (green arrow trajectories) Technicals for the daily chart are now turning upwards and bullish in support as well. Technicals aside, this spike and continued bullish momentum correlates to a somewhat expected jolt in global geopolitical tensions that would affect energy supply, and hence prices... especially over the Easter weekend, or just after.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
1
USO: Island Hopping 🏝 Summer is approaching slowly but surely, and some might start to arrange their next holiday. Meanwhile, USO is already heading south and has a bit of island hopping planned. The first stop should be in the green zone between $68.62 and $66.43, where USO should finish wave 3 in green – and maybe drink a cocktail or two. Then, it should draw some breath in a short countermovement to complete wave 4 in green. Afterwards, the next green island between $62.86 and $60.67 is waiting, where USO should conclude wave 5 in green, wave c in orange and wave in magenta. Following another countermovement in wave in magenta, USO should finally reach the warm beach strip between $60.18 and $43.48 to finish wave in magenta and wave (2) in yellow and to catch some rays.
AMEX:USOShort
by MarketIntel
Oil - A Quick break before heading northWeekly Chart: Since ATH of $ 145 a barrel from 2008, we can draw a solid Down Trendline which penetrated for the first time on September 2021 (13 years). Note the 4 aesthetic points of resistance, whom adding more power to this significant trendline. This break of the trendline, by itself, tells us that something is changed - or at least, the trend might be reversed upward. Moreover, Fundamentally wise, we can't forget the huge increase in money supply (50%) which took part in the lase 2 years - This factor by itself serves a quite confident argument why inflation will still be present in the near future, and what are the implications of such act on commodities prices. What I mean is that the platform for high prices is set and done, and now what the economy needs is the reasons for new price rallies in practice - and trust me, there are going to be various of those (Covid, Wars, Supply chain problems, etc). The last Intermediate Rally: And indeed, we are not surprised to see the last upward burst (whatever the reason might be.., in this case - the russia-ukraine war) as a positive sign of continuation. The last Minor rally from 91 to 130, was a good bargain for those who positioned themselves before the war. The last Minor rally: But the Long party is far from over, and The Oil Train is about to give new opportunity for those who want to travel north. Daily Chart: Zooming into the Daily Interval, the tactical picture becomes much clearer: 1. Successive price movement throughout Major Resistance levels: 84.48, 91.41 - Clear sign of strong Buyers. 2. Penetration of the ascending Blue Line (tops) - which serves as a preparation signal for long trade. 3. Fibonacci level of 40% which sets harmonically with the ascending Blue Line - a decent place to take a Long Position when the right signal arrives. Tactical Keys: What we want to see is some sort of Reversal Candle which takes place on the Ascending Blue Line as a form of Support (Between 90-100). When and if such a signal arrives, a proper Stop Loss should be placed 5% below the Low of the new higher expected Bottom. The first target is 145 - ATH. Reversal: If somehow the Russian-Ukraine negotiations are progressed for the good, and somehow the Russia commodities market back to the game (Very low probability) - we might suffer a huge decrease in prices for the near term, or at least, a stagnation. In such case we want to wait for the price to draw us a clear tactical picture again, and wait for a qualitive trade opportunity.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ido_Havazelet
Crude Oil mean reversionAs expected previously, Crude Oil prices did a spike higher (blow off top) and in the past week started a mean reversion, a really mean mean reversion. Expecting support to be about 93 where the daily 55EMA is met, and also possible to spike down below 90 this week, or early next week. Support ranges are marked out in yellow boxes. While this is some relief, at least to stoking long term inflation, it also appears that the ripple effects would be widespread and more lasting. In any case, Crude Oil, Energy sector will be experiencing a lot of volatility over the next months... NOTE: it is a rather interesting time where all asset classes appear to be cpitulating with Gold and Oil going down fast and the Index futures still pushing down with momentum.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
short-term pullback in Oil expected. $OIH $WTI This thing has gotten way overcooked and gone parabolic. If it continues to go parabolic, it will destroy the consumer. Which is 70% of what drives the US economy. So I doubt that will be allowed to happen by the market gods lol. I expected TVC:USOIL to return to its well-defined travel that it bonered out of like a rocket. Unless we see 3 consecutive closes above $115 a barrel for WTI crude, then I expect a return to earth (the channel) and then continuing its slug upwards until renewables and EV's have completely replaced fossil fuels and ICE's. Please see the tagged post for more info. And to understand this is not my first time doing due diligence on the subject. And not to say I told you so, but I told you so, I was spot on with oil last time. I gotta take my W's. The easy way to potentially play this while limiting risk exposure is puts on $USO, and use any profits to add to $OIH. #TRUSTinTheTiger
TVC:USOILShort
by EBITDAtiger
WILD BORRBorr Drilling Company has become very cheap once again. Considering the incredible rally in oil over the last year, BORR looks like an even better discount. The price action alone in BORR suggests to me that a bottom is being put in under 0.75. Regardless of my opinion, I have some tools and charts I can use to demonstrate why it is historically cheap and why I believe BORR could be on the verge of a major rally. I will share these ideas below. Please note that the chart above is using Renko blocks. Currently, TradingView does not allow Renko charts to be 'played' like traditional candlestick charts. Renko is different from candlesticks in that Renko blocks do not 'print' unless price moves a certain defined amount. Time is mostly irrelevant and is only useful for the 'time' required for a block to print. What this does is allow a more pure trend to be identified with the time factor removed. If price doesn't move, a block does not print. What you are left with is PRICE ACTION. Here is one such way to measure BORR. Because BORR is in the oil business. Just compare BORR to OIL. So for this use USOIL/BORR. Here is what comes of the ratio: This ratio appears to be topping out and can indicate, as previously seen in cyan ellipses, that BORR could be bottoming in this range. Just know that it doesn't have to work and there's no guarantee of anything. Use what tools are available and think for yourself. Your investing decisions are your own. Do not buy or sell anything based on anyone's advice. Why risk your own money without your own research? Study this for yourself and consider risk to reward.
NYSE:BORRLong
by gghsusa
6
Micro analysis on Crude Oil - to spike once morePreviously, in what was hoped to be a blow off top, there was a need for crude oil prices to close the gap soonest. Well, it did... thing is, it closed the gap, only to reopen with gusto. In a Gap and Close, we know it is a reversal. In a Gap and Run, we also know that the gap may or, more likely, not to be tested, and prices continue the trend strongly. In the crude oil scenario, it closed the gap (rectangular black box in chart) , only to reopen it with bullish looking candlesticks. The 4H MACD has not yet crossover bullishly, but suggest potential to. Crude oil is now more likely to spike up to the last high, and even exceed it, some time within the rest of this week. In correlation, yesterday we saw the S&P500 and NASDAQ post its worst day since Oct 2020, but it is suspected to have more downside momentum, given another reason to trigger a crude oil price spike. Now... IF, and when, prices should retrace, it should fall back to close that gap, and close it more permanently. By then, it should be below the 4H 55EMA. Heads up!
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
War, Inflation, Oil & Natural GasSince the early 2000s commodities have had a major boom, a major bust and another boom which began in April 2020. The current boom isn't caused by the world going into the right direction and economies are booming, but rather we have major issues in the production of commodities. Globalization led to a massive economic boom post WW2, a trend that slowly started reversing since 2008, accelerated a bit in 2020 due to Covid and now has massively accelerated due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This boom to a large extend relied on the financialization of the economy and the outsourcing of production on emerging markets, most of which don't align with western values and tend towards authoritarianism. This essentially lead to huge underinvestment in the production of commodities in the 'west' and heavy dependence on the 'east'. As the world is de-globalizing inflation has become a problem for everyone, but mostly for the developed world which now seems to be at odds with the developing world. Unfortunately, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the continuation, or I should say the real 'breakout' into a new world order. A reset was going to come, tensions were going to rise and things would eventually get at this stage. It's in the nature of human beings to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, and as technology is progressing these mistakes tend to be more destructive and costly. Personally, I see no way how this situation gets resolved peaceful and doesn't result in the world being heavily divided in two camps, one US centric and one China centric. The next 10 years are probably going to be very turbulent, with all sorts of problems arising and the world going through some very dark times, yet I also think that after that period we going to come out of it stronger and potentially have another massive boom. It's currently all a matter of surviving over the next 10 years monetarily, physically and mentally... because we are about to go through a really rough period where inflation gets totally out of control, especially in nations that don't produce enough of their own food and energy. There are multiple reasons as to why inflation is going to ravage the world economy, but the key ones will be higher energy prices, broken supply chains (dysfunctional trade), freeze or reduction in production of certain goods in countries like Ukraine or Russia. What is going to exacerbate the problem but at this point is a necessary evil, is the insane amount of money printing in order to cover all sorts of deficits and provide people with support. In my opinion and I've talked about extensively before, is that raising interest rates in this environment will do nothing to stop inflation. What the public and private sector really needs to do is relax regulations and provide all sorts of help to producers, so that each country can get as much autonomy as it can get. Doing whatever it takes in order to produce as much energy and food, as it really is a matter of national security. A few weeks ago, it looked like inflation was going to come down. There wasn't much liquidity in the markets and all sorts of issues started showing up. Like I had mentioned in my previous ideas, inflation was due to several issues that had nothing to do with QE and ZIR, but due to issues on the supply side. It started looking like the Fed wouldn't need to or wouldn't even be able to raise rates more than 1.5-2%. However, then the conflict broke out and everything changed completely. Now the inflation caused by non-monetary issues has gotten completely out of hand, with no end in sight. Even though the issue is mainly on the supply side, it is a very tough one to fix and it is one that needs a lot of time to fix... while in the meantime intervention by money printing, wars and so on, will most likely make things a lot worse. So instead of the markets finding some sort of balance as low supply slowly crashes demand until production ramps up, we could see things get completely out of hand as the monetary systems breaks down along with production and distribution of goods, energy etc. In this analysis I won't get into any commodities other than Oil and Natural let's get into the charts and take everything step by step. Starting with oil, it is very clear that the market is extremely overbought, but at the same time it looks like it has also had a major breakout. Based on all metrics it is the most overbought it has ever been, yet at the same time its uptrend is very clean and strong. Since its December low the price of oil has doubled, and since the low on Feb 25th after the war broke out, it went up 40%. Currently it is just 20% away from making a new ATH, so I wouldn't be surprised if it goes 2x above its previous ATH in the next few months. Essentially we are seeing a reverse capitulation of what happened in April 2020 when oil went to -40$/barrel on the front contract. That ended the oil bear market as it forced a lot of producers to shut their oil wells and flushed out speculators. So high could oil go? Is there a limit? Although there is no limit to the upside due to the potential devaluation of fiat currencies, the truth is that higher prices are the cure for higher prices. Higher prices incentivize producers to start producing a lot more, and will probably make all the environmental concerns go out of the window, hence allowing all sorts of 'bad' for the environment energy sources to be used by everyone. What is actually even more likely is that such high oil prices will make the global economy collapse, which will in turn lead into a collapse in demand for oil. But again... How high can its price get? Based on the previous two largest Oil rallies, as well as based on technical analysis & fractals, the absolute top could be at 440-550$/barrel if things get extremely bad (ceiling), while 250-300$ is more likely to be either the top or a local top for quite some time. So far we have spoken about the upside, but there is also significant potential for downside here before the bull trend continues. I don't think it is very likely, yet it is possible. Volatility on energy could get wild based on how fast the output is increased, while demand drops. The current trend can't and won't last forever, as we can't leave so many gaps behind without one day retesting them. Definitely wouldn't rule out a 2008 style crash on oil at any moment, however for now 75$ seems to be the floor, the same way 60$ was the floor in Q3-Q4 2021. Getting back to 40$ is also possible, but this one would definitely requite a 2008 style crash. Therefore on the one hand the potential upside is about 85-335%, while the downside is 35-65%. Now it's time to talk about Natural Gas, as this is another really major component of the inflation equation, especially in Europe. Russia is the largest supplier of Natural Gas to Europe, which has been paying more and more for NatGas to Russia, and the situation is getting worse by the day. Someone could say Russia is holding Europe as a hostage, because Europe really really needs that gas as many people use it for heating, cooking and energy production. As its price was low for so long, people believed it would be cheap forever and started using it more and more. Unfortunately now it isn't easy to go back to using other sources of energy and Europe is really far way from only using clean/green forms of energy. Unless it moves quickly back to nuclear energy (re-activating reactors), coal and even getting natural gas from the US or somewhere else if possible, Europe is going to having blackouts for a long time. Not only will there be blackouts, but it will be pretty much impossible for anything to function properly. The situation in Europe is totally different from that of the US, whose NatGas prices are about 15 times lower than the ones in Europe. That's because the US is producing its own and doesn't rely on other countries for it. It is also producing substantial amounts of oil, while many countries around it (i.e. Canada) also produce a lot of oil. The high dependence on Russia is putting a lot of pressure on Europe, which might not be able to grow at all for many years to come. What is interesting is that this situation is making Europe come together under a common threat, but it also somewhat benefits the US as it gets closer to Europe. Although I don't know how long would it take for this to work and if it is actually possible, but if the US starts exporting LNG to Europe, this could push the price of NatGas in the US up, and that in Europe down. This could eventually become a great trade (long NatGas in the US and short in Europe), but it might take quite some time. Like with Oil, TTF could go up another 2-5x before it rolls over, while NG barely looks like it could reach its previous ATHs. The higher oil goes and the higher the costs in Europe, the more likely it is that NG will go higher. It has formed a decent base and it looks bullish, just nowhere near as strong as the other two.
TVC:USOILLong
by BitcoinMacro
Short $USO?I know no one thinks oil is going to go lower after the run we've been having and the fact that there's a shortage of oil supply due to the conflict with Russia/Ukraine, but the chart is telling me a different story. I don't know what could cause a pullback, but I could see $USO falling back the $56-62 support levels sometime over the next few weeks before continuing higher. Definitely a high-risk trade and I'm playing it through options... let's see how it plays out.
AMEX:USOShort
by benjihyam
4