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USO

short-term pullback in Oil expected. $OIH $WTI This thing has gotten way overcooked and gone parabolic. If it continues to go parabolic, it will destroy the consumer. Which is 70% of what drives the US economy. So I doubt that will be allowed to happen by the market gods lol. I expected TVC:USOIL to return to its well-defined travel that it bonered out of like a rocket. Unless we see 3 consecutive closes above $115 a barrel for WTI crude, then I expect a return to earth (the channel) and then continuing its slug upwards until renewables and EV's have completely replaced fossil fuels and ICE's. Please see the tagged post for more info. And to understand this is not my first time doing due diligence on the subject. And not to say I told you so, but I told you so, I was spot on with oil last time. I gotta take my W's. The easy way to potentially play this while limiting risk exposure is puts on $USO, and use any profits to add to $OIH. #TRUSTinTheTiger
TVC:USOILShort
by EBITDAtiger
WILD BORRBorr Drilling Company has become very cheap once again. Considering the incredible rally in oil over the last year, BORR looks like an even better discount. The price action alone in BORR suggests to me that a bottom is being put in under 0.75. Regardless of my opinion, I have some tools and charts I can use to demonstrate why it is historically cheap and why I believe BORR could be on the verge of a major rally. I will share these ideas below. Please note that the chart above is using Renko blocks. Currently, TradingView does not allow Renko charts to be 'played' like traditional candlestick charts. Renko is different from candlesticks in that Renko blocks do not 'print' unless price moves a certain defined amount. Time is mostly irrelevant and is only useful for the 'time' required for a block to print. What this does is allow a more pure trend to be identified with the time factor removed. If price doesn't move, a block does not print. What you are left with is PRICE ACTION. Here is one such way to measure BORR. Because BORR is in the oil business. Just compare BORR to OIL. So for this use USOIL/BORR. Here is what comes of the ratio: This ratio appears to be topping out and can indicate, as previously seen in cyan ellipses, that BORR could be bottoming in this range. Just know that it doesn't have to work and there's no guarantee of anything. Use what tools are available and think for yourself. Your investing decisions are your own. Do not buy or sell anything based on anyone's advice. Why risk your own money without your own research? Study this for yourself and consider risk to reward.
NYSE:BORRLong
by gghsusa
6
Micro analysis on Crude Oil - to spike once morePreviously, in what was hoped to be a blow off top, there was a need for crude oil prices to close the gap soonest. Well, it did... thing is, it closed the gap, only to reopen with gusto. In a Gap and Close, we know it is a reversal. In a Gap and Run, we also know that the gap may or, more likely, not to be tested, and prices continue the trend strongly. In the crude oil scenario, it closed the gap (rectangular black box in chart) , only to reopen it with bullish looking candlesticks. The 4H MACD has not yet crossover bullishly, but suggest potential to. Crude oil is now more likely to spike up to the last high, and even exceed it, some time within the rest of this week. In correlation, yesterday we saw the S&P500 and NASDAQ post its worst day since Oct 2020, but it is suspected to have more downside momentum, given another reason to trigger a crude oil price spike. Now... IF, and when, prices should retrace, it should fall back to close that gap, and close it more permanently. By then, it should be below the 4H 55EMA. Heads up!
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
War, Inflation, Oil & Natural GasSince the early 2000s commodities have had a major boom, a major bust and another boom which began in April 2020. The current boom isn't caused by the world going into the right direction and economies are booming, but rather we have major issues in the production of commodities. Globalization led to a massive economic boom post WW2, a trend that slowly started reversing since 2008, accelerated a bit in 2020 due to Covid and now has massively accelerated due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This boom to a large extend relied on the financialization of the economy and the outsourcing of production on emerging markets, most of which don't align with western values and tend towards authoritarianism. This essentially lead to huge underinvestment in the production of commodities in the 'west' and heavy dependence on the 'east'. As the world is de-globalizing inflation has become a problem for everyone, but mostly for the developed world which now seems to be at odds with the developing world. Unfortunately, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the continuation, or I should say the real 'breakout' into a new world order. A reset was going to come, tensions were going to rise and things would eventually get at this stage. It's in the nature of human beings to repeat the same mistakes over and over again, and as technology is progressing these mistakes tend to be more destructive and costly. Personally, I see no way how this situation gets resolved peaceful and doesn't result in the world being heavily divided in two camps, one US centric and one China centric. The next 10 years are probably going to be very turbulent, with all sorts of problems arising and the world going through some very dark times, yet I also think that after that period we going to come out of it stronger and potentially have another massive boom. It's currently all a matter of surviving over the next 10 years monetarily, physically and mentally... because we are about to go through a really rough period where inflation gets totally out of control, especially in nations that don't produce enough of their own food and energy. There are multiple reasons as to why inflation is going to ravage the world economy, but the key ones will be higher energy prices, broken supply chains (dysfunctional trade), freeze or reduction in production of certain goods in countries like Ukraine or Russia. What is going to exacerbate the problem but at this point is a necessary evil, is the insane amount of money printing in order to cover all sorts of deficits and provide people with support. In my opinion and I've talked about extensively before, is that raising interest rates in this environment will do nothing to stop inflation. What the public and private sector really needs to do is relax regulations and provide all sorts of help to producers, so that each country can get as much autonomy as it can get. Doing whatever it takes in order to produce as much energy and food, as it really is a matter of national security. A few weeks ago, it looked like inflation was going to come down. There wasn't much liquidity in the markets and all sorts of issues started showing up. Like I had mentioned in my previous ideas, inflation was due to several issues that had nothing to do with QE and ZIR, but due to issues on the supply side. It started looking like the Fed wouldn't need to or wouldn't even be able to raise rates more than 1.5-2%. However, then the conflict broke out and everything changed completely. Now the inflation caused by non-monetary issues has gotten completely out of hand, with no end in sight. Even though the issue is mainly on the supply side, it is a very tough one to fix and it is one that needs a lot of time to fix... while in the meantime intervention by money printing, wars and so on, will most likely make things a lot worse. So instead of the markets finding some sort of balance as low supply slowly crashes demand until production ramps up, we could see things get completely out of hand as the monetary systems breaks down along with production and distribution of goods, energy etc. In this analysis I won't get into any commodities other than Oil and Natural let's get into the charts and take everything step by step. Starting with oil, it is very clear that the market is extremely overbought, but at the same time it looks like it has also had a major breakout. Based on all metrics it is the most overbought it has ever been, yet at the same time its uptrend is very clean and strong. Since its December low the price of oil has doubled, and since the low on Feb 25th after the war broke out, it went up 40%. Currently it is just 20% away from making a new ATH, so I wouldn't be surprised if it goes 2x above its previous ATH in the next few months. Essentially we are seeing a reverse capitulation of what happened in April 2020 when oil went to -40$/barrel on the front contract. That ended the oil bear market as it forced a lot of producers to shut their oil wells and flushed out speculators. So high could oil go? Is there a limit? Although there is no limit to the upside due to the potential devaluation of fiat currencies, the truth is that higher prices are the cure for higher prices. Higher prices incentivize producers to start producing a lot more, and will probably make all the environmental concerns go out of the window, hence allowing all sorts of 'bad' for the environment energy sources to be used by everyone. What is actually even more likely is that such high oil prices will make the global economy collapse, which will in turn lead into a collapse in demand for oil. But again... How high can its price get? Based on the previous two largest Oil rallies, as well as based on technical analysis & fractals, the absolute top could be at 440-550$/barrel if things get extremely bad (ceiling), while 250-300$ is more likely to be either the top or a local top for quite some time. So far we have spoken about the upside, but there is also significant potential for downside here before the bull trend continues. I don't think it is very likely, yet it is possible. Volatility on energy could get wild based on how fast the output is increased, while demand drops. The current trend can't and won't last forever, as we can't leave so many gaps behind without one day retesting them. Definitely wouldn't rule out a 2008 style crash on oil at any moment, however for now 75$ seems to be the floor, the same way 60$ was the floor in Q3-Q4 2021. Getting back to 40$ is also possible, but this one would definitely requite a 2008 style crash. Therefore on the one hand the potential upside is about 85-335%, while the downside is 35-65%. Now it's time to talk about Natural Gas, as this is another really major component of the inflation equation, especially in Europe. Russia is the largest supplier of Natural Gas to Europe, which has been paying more and more for NatGas to Russia, and the situation is getting worse by the day. Someone could say Russia is holding Europe as a hostage, because Europe really really needs that gas as many people use it for heating, cooking and energy production. As its price was low for so long, people believed it would be cheap forever and started using it more and more. Unfortunately now it isn't easy to go back to using other sources of energy and Europe is really far way from only using clean/green forms of energy. Unless it moves quickly back to nuclear energy (re-activating reactors), coal and even getting natural gas from the US or somewhere else if possible, Europe is going to having blackouts for a long time. Not only will there be blackouts, but it will be pretty much impossible for anything to function properly. The situation in Europe is totally different from that of the US, whose NatGas prices are about 15 times lower than the ones in Europe. That's because the US is producing its own and doesn't rely on other countries for it. It is also producing substantial amounts of oil, while many countries around it (i.e. Canada) also produce a lot of oil. The high dependence on Russia is putting a lot of pressure on Europe, which might not be able to grow at all for many years to come. What is interesting is that this situation is making Europe come together under a common threat, but it also somewhat benefits the US as it gets closer to Europe. Although I don't know how long would it take for this to work and if it is actually possible, but if the US starts exporting LNG to Europe, this could push the price of NatGas in the US up, and that in Europe down. This could eventually become a great trade (long NatGas in the US and short in Europe), but it might take quite some time. Like with Oil, TTF could go up another 2-5x before it rolls over, while NG barely looks like it could reach its previous ATHs. The higher oil goes and the higher the costs in Europe, the more likely it is that NG will go higher. It has formed a decent base and it looks bullish, just nowhere near as strong as the other two.
TVC:USOILLong
by BitcoinMacro
Short $USO?I know no one thinks oil is going to go lower after the run we've been having and the fact that there's a shortage of oil supply due to the conflict with Russia/Ukraine, but the chart is telling me a different story. I don't know what could cause a pullback, but I could see $USO falling back the $56-62 support levels sometime over the next few weeks before continuing higher. Definitely a high-risk trade and I'm playing it through options... let's see how it plays out.
AMEX:USOShort
by benjihyam
4
XOM- USO oil overdone!The oil trade has the masses crowding the same trades banks and energy up 26% in 5 weeks. Considering the economic data, the start of a bear market, slowing economy, possible rate hikes and the shift to EV oil got way ahead of itself and I would expect a 12-15% correction in the coming weeks. Some would look at this chart and call a breakout, I think an 8 year high in oil going into a slowing economy is reminiscent of 2008 when oil hit $151 intraday was a blowoff top, the same time Goldman Sachs was pounding the table predicting $250 a barrel oil, within a couple months later oil hit $35. I think as usual the crowd is wrong here and I am usually a contrarian on everything! BTW, Feb 9th is XOM ex-dividend date so likely the stock will remain artificially elevated until then. GL
NYSE:XOMShort
by ShortSeller76
4
Trade Idea: USO July 15th 2 x 72/62 Put Ratio SpreadWTI is the highest it's been in a very long time ... . You can naturally play /CL directly or use USO Here, I would buy 2 x the 72's in July and sell the 62, with the result being a break even where the stock is currently trading. I would go longer-dated in this particular case to allow shale to get back in the game, U.S. production to increase somewhat toward pre-pandemic levels, and stockpiles to build. Metrics: Max Loss: 19.91 ($1991) Max Profit: 62.09 ($6209) (That assumes that the underlying could go to zero, which it naturally won't) Break Even: 62.05 relative to today's closing price of 61.68 Delta/Theta: -88.19/-1.57
AMEX:USOShort
by NaughtyPines
CL - 4 hour / Gap FilledCrude Oil will provide the Leading Indication for a Reversal into the 3/5 for the Indices. The DX has been wandering in the Desert @ 96. All eyes have been on the Breakup and out to 98, it has yet to materialize and with Rates pulling back, we will see quite clearly where the Operators have designs on Price. ____________________________________________________________ EIA has shown Crude Draws with odd movements in RBOB / RB. Energy has been a Pillar of the safety Trade since December into January. We see the potential for a reversal setting up nearer term. Perhaps it will be the Instrument that provides leadership. It's either down to 61 or up to 88 and then potentially 104. Tik Tok.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
CL - 15 Minute MicroCrude Oil has an expanded range from 78.36 to 80.48. Sellers have been roundly pushed back as CL would simply collect the energy and grind higher. API Today and EIA T0morrow will provide direction, the Gap remains overhead and should be filled. Rates have had a mild impact on CL, as has the DX. ___________________________________________________ We currently hold no positions and are awaiting the next break of 80 or support to trade to consider a Position. The Weekly and Monthly ranges are quite large and have us squarely on the sidelines while the Indices are providing greater Velocity Intra-Day. Should TNX backtest the breakout, we will be closely watching the reaction within Energy. NG came up nicely off its 3.50/3.70 range to move back over $4. RBOB remains in a larger Range and is becoming a leader in the Energy Complex into March as reformulations begin to gain momentum.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
USO, 10 Jan. Is the Oil price about to crash?Oil has completed a 5-wave move on 25 Oct. Oscillators and geometry suggest a decline. Geometry: Price got rejected at the lower boundary of the channel. The red trend line is a second resistance, connecting the previous low and the gap. Elliott: We can count an ABC (in green), which makes up corrective wave (b), in blue. If correct, we can expect a wave C to the downside. Oscillators: The RSI shows a strong bearish divergence. The MFI points downwards. Stochastic is overbought and due to retrace. Correlation: USO is -.74 inversely correlated with TLT, at support, and .71 with XLE, at resistance. How to trade it: The idea is to build short exposure between 57 and 60. The red and blue trend lines give us two excellent risk-reward ratios. If price continues towards 60 it is likely to form an expanding flat correction. The idea is invalidated if USO establishes support above 56.
AMEX:USOShort
by UnknownUnicorn12250317
CL - Daily / Weakening Structure / EIA 10:30 AM ESTLeave it to OPEC to Delta the recent Phantom 400KBPD Output Increase. Called BS on that farce, and it's knee-deep. Thursday, they will announce a cut or rollback of the most recent snafu. Hachoo Hookah as we refer to it. ________________________________________________________________ Crude remains the Leader along with the NYSE Comp and BitCon. Weakening in Daily Structure and Failing the 3 drives to a Top at the 50% no matter how you draw it. 77 or bust again, 57's re-open. ________________________________________________________________ 10:30- AM EST will be a pivotal Time for everything.
C
by HK_L61