OVX - Crude Oil VolatilityThe current volatility is above historical volatility, traders anticipate higher volatility for
Price in the Short to Intermediate-Term.
Crude Oil WTI Jan '22 (CLF22)
66.26s -0.24 (-0.36%)
Crude Oil WTI Feb '22 (CLG22)
66.10s -0.17 (-0.26%)
Crude Oil WTI Mar '22 (CLH22)
65.93s -0.10 (-0.15%)
Crude Oil WTI Jun '22 (CLM22)
65.26s +0.02 (+0.03%)
Crude Oil WTI Dec '22 (CLZ22)
63.69s +0.26 (+0.41%)
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Currently, the Term Structure for Crude Oil is in very slight Backwardation.
The Teem Structure is flattening somewhat - this will change in time, for now
it is in the Confidence Cycle interest to keep things tightly aligned, both Up and Down.
CL remains a hostage to further News Cycle surrounding OPEC's attempt to
support Price to the best of their abilities within reason.
They do not want to spook the Market but instead will attempt stability in the very short term.
USO
CL - 1 Hour 3/3In attempting to stress the Risks associated I need to step it up... this is the
entire Measured Move and RTs for CL into 2022.
85.41 - HIgh
23.6% - 66.7872
38.2% - 55.2664
50.0% - 45.955
61.8% - 36.6436
76.4% - 25.1228
100% - 6.5 Low
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For now, with traders looking for a "Right Shoulder" but waiting for a lower
Fill for the reversal...
The Trade IS 100% CF, a WAG Trade.
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Traders are afraid to wait, afraid to Enter.
Fear is present, everpresent.
FEAR
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The rather odd thing, once again... is there a Rush to discover how wrong you could be?
I certainly would like to believe not, but am proven wrong every day by the Majority.
Gunslinging is an Option, always.
We prefer the Bar, where Dirty Monkeys are chill, smoke is thick and Alexandra can find
her next soul mate.
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The game has been to run the price up into Lunch SELL thereafter,
Launch Globex opens on the right day of the week and pray.
We'll bite, but... with extreme caution... the Downside is enormous, the upside contained.
Greed will kill a great many here.... both ways.
Be Nimble, be quick, and don't anticipate Miracles... they're not arriving.
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CL is a WidowMaker once again.
CL - PO Hit during GlobexCrude crossed its Retracement Objective during Globex @ 67.16.
63.73 and 62.42 are now the Lower Range.
OPEC Wraps up today.
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Currently, the largest influence on Oil is the Equity Complex, it is tracking
the NQ closely.
Expect VX in CL as it's due for far more, they'll need to squeeze this back up
to 68.69 to prevent a waterfall decline.
A Break of the LT Trendline is now 64.45 - Price traded it yesterday.
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OPEC Meeting began @ 8 PM EST and should conclude this morning with
an announcement by 10:30 AM EST to 11:30 AM EST.
WTI NEW BULL WAVE HAS STARTED 88.91 TARGET WTI has been working within a near perfect fib relationship in every wave . my target i called for was 85.9 spot on and now a ideal pullback within the relationship calls for the next rally to peak at 88.91 I would look to be long as the news on the low came and is in the market as well as cycles . this would lead to a new rally to just take out the last peak and then a major new BEAR MARKET to start . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
An Impulse of Intuition, An Ideal time to Sell your Oil 🛢️⛽🖼️Perhaps the seed of Charting Rbob Gasoline Earlier.
This Black Gold stuff is a slippery liquid.
Oil seems to be stealthy making lower lows &
perhaps about to make a lower high.
Have to be slick to market time the ole WMD.
*Short ideas are SELL ideas only, don't support outright short selling.*
Peek the detailed breakdown notes
in the high def chart links below :
TVC:USOIL
AMEX:USO
LSE:PBRT
NYMEX:CL1!
TVC:UKOIL
NYMEX:BB1!
CL - Wedging out for Break Crude Oil remains in a Weekly SELL, Resistance continues to hold
overhead after reaching our 7061 TGT.
With the DX gaining strength, CL will come under pressure.
Price Objective - 67.68
Has Oil's uptrend come to an end?My short answer is no. Oil hasn't peaked yet in my opinion, although in the short term it might chop between 63-77$ before a big breakout. As OPEC+ has decided to increase production, we might slowly see the effects of that + there are some general deflationary pressures like new Covid strains and endless lockdowns that might push oil lower in the short term.
However in my opinion due to the ESG movement and the climate change proponents in general, the underinvestment in oil + forced production cuts due to protests might limit supply so much that if demand slowly increases the price of oil could skyrocket.
Technically Oil is still in an uptrend and its more than a decade long bear market has come to an end. Speculators were flushed out but oil has manage to hit some key levels which if broken might attract more speculative capital in the market. Above 77$, 90$ is a very easy target and we could see it go even to 100$+. In the short term if there is a panic across all markets and we get a strong dip everywhere, I think oil could get to 42-55$, which in my opinion would be an incredible opportunity.
Oil around 50$ is ok for allowing for more global growth, but it is also signaling slow growth. Low oil prices could translate in lower bond yields which would mean deflation which would allow the status quo to remain.
USO - bearish double topOPEC + just agreed to increase output until 2022, Gasoline stockpiles build up more than expected EIA report July 13. Look for bear flag to form on 4 hour. PT .618 Fib level or 47.75. August - Usually refiners shutdown and that means build up of inventory. The only bullish case I see, if there are major hurricanes knocking out supply in Gulf of Mexico. I am in 8/20 $48 puts at 1.5, current 4000 OI. Good Luck this week!
USO: TurmOIL!🪔🪔🪔The discussions at the tables at the OPEC+ conference do not end, and it shows. We expect the course to drop for quite a bit now. In total, the correction should end somewhere between $41.29 and $39.27, before new bullish runs set in. Once that happens, prices above $59.35 will be targeted.
Let’s go Bears!
WTI short term bearishOn the 1 hr TF we see that
MACD crossover, possible HS, bearish volume continues to build
RSI continues to get LL
Pressure on top BBand
Confirmation of downward trend if responsibly passes 74.6 S1
Target1 73.74,
Target 2 VWAP 73.5,
Target 3 Bottom BBand at ~72
Short term trading, no long term holds.
Note: yday OPEC meeting still inconclusive - can have impact based on outcome.
USO: Waiting for the next entry! 🤠🤠🤠From the current level, we expect the USO to fall all the way down to prices around $40.56. Once in this region, the next bullish run should bring us close to $60. However, with the bullish price development of the oil market, there is a 45% chance of an early bullish breakout.
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