🛢️📉 Crude Oil top reversal: CL1! - back to H&S neclineformed a bear flag by wave (c) in massive weekly supply zone. Now iam expecting fall back to H&S pattern couple days back to test for demand in red area at $62.My sweet spot to short entry is in blue area which will be tested for supply between 64.34 - 64.87
here is data for my trade:
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 64.51
Stop Loss: 65.27
Profit target: 62.01
Time stop: 2 days
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USO
Crude Oil burnt out Seldom post about Crude Oil but this is too obvious to miss and a very good learning point...
You see, Crude (and Energy) has recently been on fire (almost literally) with the rise of Crude oil due to many factors in recent months. The thing is, warning signs appear to tell of a retracement pullback, or even end of bull run.
The Weekly chart kindly heads up with long upper tails above 61.50. The RPM clearly warns of a pull back too. Net interest from Non-Commercials are not increasing as it was in early Nov, and the Top 8 Traders appear to be going more Net short.
Perhaps the daily chart (right panel) shows it clearer... with a marubozu-doji-reversed marubozu top pattern, and technicals to boot where RPM has crossed down, and MACD cross down after a bearish divergence flatline.
Something is clearly about to change... the party is almost done.
A look at WTI Crude Oil on the daily, last resistance level!Good morning, as you can see from the chart we are coming into the last reistance level for WTI Crude oil at 63.3-63.4 range. From there a clean break above and we open up the 66-76 level for oil. Watch in conjunction both USO and UCO as indicators of the strength of the move.
Holding between $38 and $45We are comfortable holding long term USO between $38 and $45 based on current global environment and trading structure. There is a long term trend line that sweeps through at $38 that heads to $39 slowly, very slowly which is easier to take advantage of. Still targeting $45 on the long term that is a safe place to take a position off this trade but continue the uptrend
Dead wrong on Oil, but what now?Obviously my previous predictions on Oil were wrong, however, it is hard to forecast a vicious virus from the far East. Now, the doomsdayers are back, touting their long bond positions with gold, saying "I told you so." Those positions have worked, and oil has tanked. To be clear, I don't dislike bonds or gold here, but Oil is ripe for a rebound. We are deeply oversold, indeed, I believe this sell-off is far overdone. From a pure technical perspective, the RSI is now turning, and MACD looks to be bottoming out. We should retest the ~60 level again, as this was the previous range bound channel crude was trading in. If 50 is broken, this thesis is invalidated and I am dead wrong. We will see.
Nice setup to short Crude oil falling channel 🛢️📉NYMEX:CL1! is trading now in long-term supply area ( resistance). After estabilished triple top price pattern we could see trading NYMEX:CL1! in falling channel.On hourly timeframe its clear downtrend and price forming hanging man pattern.
After breakdown diagonal trendline price is testing it, its perfect setup to short entry.
here is data for my trade:
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 52.62
Stop Loss: 52.92
Profit target: 51.54
Time stop: MOC ( Market on Close)
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Upward channel on SCO: Short Crude Oil at TopHi mates, i posting another of my todays trades. Its based od triple top on in my another idea posted few days ago. Its in realated.
here is data for my swingtrade:
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 9.98
Stop Loss: 9,82
Profit target: 10,62
Time stop: 3 days
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USOil (WTI)Due to the fall of the May contract into negative territory, oil can hardly be counted superordinate, as this is not provided in the EWT. Therefore, I have here only the last movement counters. Here it is not yet quite clear whether the final yellow (z) only the red w (here Alt. w) was completed or whether it was already completed. The 0.618 minimum target was reached in any case, so that a further rise would not be mandatory.
Oil Playbook ( 2021 )Prices for Crude Oil are down -20% from last year which means the bearish outlook is priced in. The bearish outlook is that the -16% drop in consumption outweighs the -7% drop in production plus the 4% increase in inventory stockpiles. Bulls want to know if demand has bottomed or not and since consumption tends to be highest in Jan-Feb, it might have further to fall since travel is still lagging. However, exports have recovered and circling back, the -20% discount in crude prices indicate the market is fundamentally balanced given the uncertainty.
Production
2019 Average: 12,197
2020 Average: 11,318
%Change: -7.76%
Stockpiles
2019 Nov: 1,918
2020 Nov: 2,003
%Change: +4.24%
Consumption
2019 Average: 1,070
2020 Average: 916
%Change: -16.81%
Exports
2019 Average: 8,471
2020 Average: 8,407
%Change: -0.76%
Trading Strategy
Swings in the dollar index are primarily moving prices so this will create the trading opportunities in the near term. Get ready.
There is a momentum divergence on the DXY daily chart and the RSI has some room to run.
Crude prices have reached a resistance level.
If the Dollar index does start to rally then crude prices are going to waterfall. Best to wait for a decisive candle closing below the 10 day EMA before making a short trade.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long oil/gas producer equities
KMI, LUKOY, EQT
Crude oil under pressure - 📉 Trading bearish flag on CL1!🛢️If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow.
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Hi fellows, just one of my today daytrades:
Nice entry point on bearish flag
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 48.07
Stop Loss: 48.22
Profit target: 47.60
Time stop: Exit at market close
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Crude oil drop by 4% soon! If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow.
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Hi fellows, just one of my today swingrades:
Crude oil forming head and shoulders pattern inside supply zone. Drop is very likely very near.
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 48.18
Stop Loss: 48.67
Profit target: 46.41
Time stop: 5 days
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