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USO

Looking for a decent, if minor correction on USO > 44-ishLooking to purchase Oil/energy equities, looks like USO has a slight negative bias and might break down from ascending wedge. Looking to purchase more oil/energy on a dip. I can see 43-44 on a correction. 100 EMA near 44 should cap losses, unless we have a news catalyst. Exxon and other energy names have moved up hard over the last few weeks, might be time for a correction. This would be to add to existing positions or to add new names. Also noticing some bearish divergence on the RSI in the 4-hr chart. Looking to pick up a few shares of FENY to diversify. Main vehicle is XOM, FENY is not ideal for diversification, but it provides some. Charts and indicators look okay, XOM appears to be at distribution and therefore a dip is underway as I write. Ideal price for FENY would be 9.90ish, for XOM, I would say anything below 40. Market will do what it wants, so I might just put in a trailing buy order with a half-decent delta and see if I can get a better price, but not going to try to get too "cute" about getting a sale price.
FX:USOILLong
by JJMa
1
EXXON MOBIL LONG|ECONOMIC RECOVERY BET| XOM is an oil major, and the stock fell from 70$ to 30$ as a result of the corona-crisis That brought economic recession and a decrease in both demand and price of oil Later, XOM established a double bottom after retesting the lows of the pandemic And now it is surging. I think that buying XOM is a bet on the economic recovery Which will happen eventually The target of 65-67$ is very realistic As this is the minimum of what the company should be worth without outperforming I would say, that 65$ is the price which will be achieved by just getting the demand for oil back to normal Without any further increase in oil prices. (As there is plenty of ready to go supply, so the new demand will be covered easily and so the oil price will remain stable as the oil companies revenue will grow! Therefore, Long XOM. Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
NYSE:XOMLong
by ProSignalsFx
1
Dollars, Gold, and Something Else...Something inTERe$tiNg is unfolding and you heard it here first. It involves the dollar, gold, and... drum roll... ...the W r e c k i n g B a l l I'll save that one for last. Like any good thesis, it will evolve as new data comes in. For now let's look at some data. We can see from the Commitment of Traders report that both Asset Managers and Leveraged Speculators are reducing longs and increasing shorts on the D X Y. Asset Managers, being the more conservative investors, are decidedly betting on further weakness while Leveraged Speculators are pretty much split even. "U.S. DOLLAR INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S." ------------------------- Date: 2020-11-17 Open Interest: 29413 ------------------------- Asset Managers / Institutions Long: 5255 -887 change Short: 9148 332 change Spreading: 931 -3 change ------------------------- Leveraged Funds Long: 9509 -763 change Short: 8709 407 change Spreading: 1401 -731 change Looking at the charts we see this bearish momentum playing out, however, the technicals are a bit overextended and I am keeping an eye out for something like a dead cat bounce in the next few weeks, followed by a plummet into the abyss. This same pattern would inversely reflect in nearly every market but let's just look at Gold for now. If this plays out we can expect a sucker rally from the weekly 50 EMA, followed by an ugly move to test the next fibonacci level down. This is where I would start aggressively adding to my core positions. As of Nov 19 2020, US Investor Sentiment, % Bull-Bear Spread is at 17.99%, compared to 30.96% last week and 15.90% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 7.29%. This data signals that investors were much too bullish on the overall market are beginning to become more bearish. THE WRECKING BALL REVEALED Many are calling for the market bubble to pop but it just keeps trucking along. As we enjoy that sweet bubble bliss, that truck is driving off road into the Wild West and if you know anything about history, you know that the rest of the world is not so bubbly. This theory is a purely speculative shot in the dark but... 1. If the dollar does plummet, you better believe that oil is going to ROCKET like Kim Jong-un's 36th birthday present 2. Saudis are trouble, or the U.S. is. It's hard to tell. Probably both. The global economy is vulnerable to high oil prices which is part of the reason the U.S. wants to control Saudi Arabia. It could very well be part of the reason why U.S. oil producers "shoot themselves in the foot" *wink wink*, intentionally driving down prices by over producing. Fact is that inflation is basically a national security threat with the current debt levels and it's very unlikely the powers that be are not heavily involved in the oil sector. Fun fact: 80% of Saudi Arabia's exports are oil. When economy's get squeezed, you can be sure a reaction will follow. Aggressive retaliatory action would certainly drive oil prices to the moon and with a plummeting dollar, this would be a perfect storm. The global economy would implode, the bubbles all pop, and we won't be able to finish watching Peaky Blinders on Netflix. Keeping at least 1 eye on this. Trading is risky. Don't do it and don't listen to me. Long: Crypto: BTC, ETH Bullion: Gold, Silver Equities: Commodities, International Dividend and Growth stocks "All religion is a foolish answer to a foolish question." - Thomas Shelby
TVC:DXY
by ryan-snk
Oil Bears in for a Crude AwakeningDon't get excited just yet. The only certainty in the oil game is it's not for the faint of heart and right now, the bears are getting crushed. Now that prices are gearing up it looks like it's time to make a new plan. Before I do let's recap the last one. Previously I had noticed a particular trendline that prices broke out of in early August. As that breakout failed, it seemed a retest of that trendline was inevitable. Prices bounced right back up to a macro fib retracement level (@ $40) as they often do, like a magnet. Then after it failed at that fib level and retested that trendline again, I noticed a potential tricky oil move playing out: the head and shoulders fake out. Now here we are breaking $40.50 and the 50 Week EMA. Although I have been buying oil stocks on these dips I am not trading futures just yet until prices can stabilize above $40. Eventually, I'd like to see a weekly close above that 50 week EMA and then start buying dips on the 1 hour chart all the way up to the 200 week EMA at $51.50 The MACD on the monthly chart is showing a nice divergence and as always, I'm keeping an eye on that macro Fib retracement level at $40 as the pivot point. Trading is risky. Don't listen to my advice. Long LUKOY, KMI and buying dips
O
by ryan-snk
WTI OIL(USOIL) will fall from Resistance. Sell! Hello, Traders! OIL is approaching a confluence of strong resistance levels Even thought the Dollar is pretty weak The demand for oil is dubious Due to the recovery rate uncertainty And the possibility of new lockdowns Vaccine efficiency and deployment etc.. All of the above leads me to believe That bulls wont't be pushing above the confluence Therefore, I expect oil to pullback To retest the falling support Sell! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
TVC:USOILShort
by TopTradingSignals
2
OIL will rise a bit more, then fall. Sell! Hello, Traders! OIL is going UP on the fundamentals. Improved outlook on the economic Recovery rate Based on the vaccine successes Consequently improves outlook on oil demand Therefore we see a price increase. However, On the technical side We see a strong rising resistance ahead. That is my target short spot From which I expect oil to retest falling support Sell! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
TVC:USOILShort
by TopTradingSignals
5
OIL TRADING PLAN| KEY LEVELS|ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW| OIL is trading in a falling channel/wedge and is approaching a confluence of resistance level. Having missed all the long opportunities I am looking at a short trade and I am waiting for the market to present me with the reversal pattern. IF this confluence fails, My next short target area is the 43-44$ massive daily resistance level. The market will almost certainly respect it and give us a nice pullback trade. Watch the video for more details. Like and subscribe to never miss a new video! See you all then!
TVC:USOILShort
by ProSignalsFx
3
THE WEEK AHEAD: ROKU, WYNN, SQ EARNINGS; XOP, USO, GDXJ, EWZEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: ... Screened for options liquidity and 30-day implied greater than 50% and ranked by "bang for your buck": ROKU (38/31/16.4%),* announcing Thursday after market close. WYNN (27/76/14.7%), announcing Wednesday (no time specified). SQ (43/74/14.3%), announcing Thursday after market close. PYPL (56/60/11.6%), announcing Monday after market close. GM (20/59/11.4%), announcing Thursday after market close. QCOM (45/54/10.9%), announcing Wednesday after market close. BABA (65/55/10.5%), announcing Thursday after market close. Pictured here are two 2 x expected move setups in ROKU, one in November (19 days 'til expiry), and one in December (47 days 'til expiry). The November setup was paying 8.55 at the mid price as of Friday close, with delta/theta of -.89/51.22; the December: 10.13 at the mid price as of Friday close, with delta/theta of -.95/27.88. I could see doing either, with the primary benefit of the shorter duration being that the volatility contraction tends to be more rapid, and with the primary benefit of the longer duration one being that you've got a little bit more room to be wrong. If you're of a more defined risk bent, look for an iron condor setup paying at least one-third the width of the wings in credit, such as the November 20th 160/165/265/270, paying 1.63. Look to put this on in Thursday's session prior to market close, adjusting strikes as necessary to accommodate movement between now and then. With the exception of GM, the remainder of the underlyings can be short strangled or iron condored, but would go short straddle or iron fly in GM due it's size (34.53 as of Friday close). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: XOP (23/69/18.7%) USO (14/71/17.5%) GDXJ (22/56/15.7%) EWZ (29/56/15.5%) XLE (38/57/14.9%) GDX (23/46/13.3%) SLV (28/48/13.0%) XBI (36/44/12.1%) EWW (35/49/11.6%) IWM (42/42/10.8%) SMH (28/42/10.9%) QQQ (43/40/10.8%) BROAD MARKET: IWM (42/42/10.8%) QQQ (43/40/10.8%) SPY (38/38/9.6%) EFA (33/30/8.4%) IRA DIVIDEND-EARNERS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%: EWZ (29/56/15.5%) XLE (38/57/14.9%) KRE (32/50/14.1%) SLV (38/48/13.0%)** XBI (37/44/12.1%) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price the November at-the-money short straddle is paying. ** -- SLV does not pay a dividend.
NASDAQ:ROKU
by NaughtyPines
2
Green New Oil DealOil prices should offer some nice opportunities to create some green days in the near future. Calling the bottom is difficult however, it should be a fairly safe trade once it closes above the macro fib level, 50/200 Day EMA, and this down trend line. Clearing these levels could mean that Bill Gates will have a vaccine for us soon or the Dollar Index is falling into the abyss. The Macro Fibs. Prices continue to coil up around these levels and act as check points in the trend. The DXY. On the macro level it appears it's only a matter of time before the Dollar breaks below it's first fib extension target. Should this happen, you do not want to be short oil. A Closer Look. The OBV is showing that selling pressure taking control and now that prices broke out of the uptrend and failed to retest, it looks like traders might look to test this pink trend line once again and could offer another buying opportunity. My last post, linked below, we can see that this pink trend line offered a perfect buying opportunity. If it get's there again I'll look for a bounce to take advantage of.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ryan-snk
Crude does not look sustainable...Yes, still bullish up trending, but honestly, look at the technicals and it’s like crazy... Cannot keep this weak rally up for too much longer. MACD is so bearishly divergent and recent rally is weak Th ebottom panel is the net non-commercial interest and it has been steadily waning as price edge higher. I thought it was going to give way earlier but everything is extending into September. Now I still expect Crude to roll over in September...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
Crude Oil - Buying the DipsOil prices are coiling up for a move which will eventually head towards to the mid $60s for the following reasons: - Bankruptcies - DXY destruction - Demand bottoming - Chaos in the Middle East at some point Pit stops along the way are marked by the fib extension from the first impulsive move - 0.5 and 0.618 being the most significant. The simplest strategy is to assume the fib levels are to at first sell the resistance levels and then buy when it flips to support. Right now it looks like the 0.236 level is now support. Below that you have a possible floor at the macro fib level around $40 - any dips here will likely be bought up quick. Still long QM @ $42.85 Total Oil P/L: $1,930 All trades linked below.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ryan-snk
Looks like CRUDE OIL is the first to give way...In a market where everything goes up, and ignoring the fact that we are no better than when the year started... something was gonna give. It is Crude Oil that appears to cave in first... The daily Crude Oil futures CL1! clearly shows a waning momentum to push oil prices just about 42. And this waning momentum was under a technical bearish divergence of the MACD, and price action within a rising wedge. Any technical chartist would know the probability of how this eventually pans out... So here you go, Crude appear to be the first mover, and soon, when it fails to bounce off the wedge support, breaks down, and drops below 40... we all would have an “ah ha!” moment. Well, you got a heads up here... be warned, it almost time. Interesting outcome... I was watching a couple of charts, wondering which would give the first signal, and how the cascade would start. Stay safe and have a good weekend ahead!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Oil struggling to find momentumFor most of my investing life, I have been a part of the upwards bull run spanning nearly a decade. Growth stocks outperformed cyclical and value, interest rates were kept low, and oil was at favorable prices. However, this year I experienced two unprecedented events: The Pandemic and negative oil prices. Both the pandemic and negative oil prices come hand in hand Pandemic forced everyone in their houses, forcing a build up in oil inventories. So much so, that storage was filled to the brim, and oil producers were paying buyers (what a weird statement) to take their oil – hence, negative prices. Since that historic day, oil prices have doubled, and Brent Crude has stabilized around the $40 – $45 range. However, it struggles to find momentum getting back to the glory days of $60 and $70 a barrel for oil. If New Zealand is to be followed, higher prices for oil may be unlikely We are all optimists at heart – no matter our opinion, we want things to be better than expected. Better than expected results for earnings means we get a boost in a stock price. Better than expected, Coronavirus vaccine results mean we can return to a life of normal quicker. However, in the words of Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, “Things will get worse before it gets better.” Jacinda’s statement was on the back of New Zealand recording more Community transmitted cases after 102 days of no community transmitted cases. Two things can be deduced from this: No matter how successful you are at flattening the curve, just like New Zealand has, community transmission is inevitable If we argue that New Zealand has relatively been the most successful in trying to get rid of the virus through their harsh lockdown measures and there still is community transmission – how is the rest of the world going to cope? Oil isn’t just about supply This is important because no matter how much suppliers restrict the supply of oil, there are two sides to the picture – the other side being demand. If New Zealand, after fully flattening the curve for 102 days, goes into another lockdown, can we assume that the rest of the world will follow a similar trajectory? Not to mention that countries like the United States and places like Victoria, Australia, have not been able to achieve what New Zealand has. Countries like Japan and Australia were initially praised for their low Coronavirus cases. However, they both have seen spikes due to community transmission. That is a long-winded argument to back up the idea that Oil demand (and therefore oil prices) are inversely correlated to potential second lockdowns. And that may be the reason as to why we do not see oil push past $50 a barrel anytime soon. Oil producers are hoping that that the Coronavirus doesn’t force a second lockdown The International Energy Association (IEA) reported they predict oil demand would average around 91.9 million barrels a day (BPD) in 2020. This is 8.1 Million barrels a day lower than the average of 100m BPD last year. Quick maths Average oil prices were around $64 a barrel in 2019 Currently, Brent is sitting at around $45 a barrel in 2020 Difference is $19 a barrel $18 x 8.1 = $15.4 Billion of average potential oil revenues a day lost due to the Pandemic That $15.4 Billion is assuming that oil prices stay at $45 and demand staying at an average of 91 Billion barrels a day this year. If a second lockdown occurs, we will see oil demand drop and the price of oil drop, causing a double blow to producers. IEA noted that “Recent mobility data suggests the recovery has plateaued in many regions” and that the global oil supply was expected to be roughly steady in August. Assuming that demand is constant in August, we should see Brent Crude oil stay around the $45 mark. However, a second lockdown across the world as OPEC slowly increases its supply will lower oil prices.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Crude Oil - Black GoldCommodities are rallying today as the Dollar index loses value and right on cue, oil has hit my target at $43 (the 50 week EMA) and could pullback soon. I've closed my positions for a $1,237.50 gain (entry/exit linked below) and am looking to buy dips moving forward. I believe oil is heading higher by the end of the year and the fib extensions should help map out buy/sell points and hint on the strength of the moves. That pink trend line also will likely come into play at some point. Goodluck.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ryan-snk