Get started

USO

Update of crude oil: It did turn up. Current target.This is a follow up from my March 27 posting suggesting a possible bottom in oil. See link below. From the 2 hr chart you can see the last downtrend line has been broken and price has gone above the the previous short turn high which supports the bottom may now be in. Short term I think a rise to the 35-40 range in likely. Drop below the short term up channel is negative. Process your way. Make decisions on your own analysis. Best to ya. Feedback welcome.
FX:USOILLong
by goodguy
OIL PRICE BEHAVIOR EXPLAINED Yesterdays epic negative oil prices were due to the fact the CL1! Futures expiration was 21.04.2020, therefore all unsettled contracts had to undergo a physical delivery in the Oklahoma Terminal. The problem however is that the storage is 70% full already and any level above 80% is considered dangerous from the technical point of view. There is nothing unnatural in the current situation, although the depth of the fall is indeed unprecedented. The spot and the nearest futures prices are suppressed due to massive oversupply. If you take a look at the November 2020 prices, a healthy 32 USD per barrel is printed. What is of particular interest is that while WTI spot is negative, Brent and Urals oil benchmarks are trading at the reasonable levels, having lost just about 6%. The differential shows us that the oil market is fragmented and is not entirely global. There are hundreds of types and brands of crude oil of varying chemical composition and different quality, and the refineries are customized to deal with a particular type of oil. While the Saudis are offering 3 month payment free oil shipments to Europe, there is a technical and infrastructural constraints on the volumes of oil that Europe can take from the unusual source. The fed had confirmed that they will be buying junk grade corporate bonds, but they are targeting to help those who are solvent but illiquid. To quote the fed official: the fed wants the price discovery process to continue. Given the current oil price combined with the levels of indebtedness of the shell oil producers, we will see bankruptcies as their objective long term insolvency won’t let the fed take on the risk and save them. On a practical note: USO etf, which is a holder of near term oil futures, seems to be a decent option to go long on oil as there is only one way for oil to move now. Shell oil producers are too risky at these price levels. Yet, as the time goes and investors flee from the default risks, and the near default stocks start trading for pennies, one might start picking those stocks. Buy 20 of them. 15 go bankrupt. 5 left survive narrowly and get a x500 upside. One good trade. What do you think guys? Are you among those who burned themselves badly trying to catch the falling knife of the spot oil today? Or were you the lucky shorter who will be buying a Bentley tomorrow? Tell me in the comments.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CassidyWaterhouS
6
WTICOUSD - Oil weekly. Is oil ready to pivot?4/17/2020 OIL weekly chart All the talking heads are saying how the C-19 virus destroyed the Oil and etc. The truth is the oil peaked in 2008 and it is looking to be completing a 5 wave structures down. Currently the oil is in 19 handle I can see Oil may go down to the 17 handle I can also say see that Oil met the minimum requirement to begin moving up from this area. EVERYONE was bullish when oil was $130-$140 EVERYONE is bearish now when WTI is $19.xx and USO is at $4
OANDA:WTICOUSDEducation
by Successful_Inv_Strategies
1
Incoming Reversal! Technical Analysis of USO - United States OilFirst, we look at the 1 week chart and establish there's an overall bearish trend. This is indicated by the downwards purple trend lines. Then we zoom in to the daily chart for more details and establish a level of support, indicated by the horizontal purple line. We also determine the short-term bearish signs and determine there's a loss of momentum. This new bearish trend support/resistance are indicated by the green lines. What we'll be looking for on Monday is to break out above the long-term bearish purple line. Look to place a trade around end-of-day Monday based on current position above or below that line. For me, the loss of momentum and the recent activity with oil in the news (Russia/Saudi deal) I'm going to lean towards a bearish trade. AMEX:USO
AMEX:USOLong
by CameronDWills
2
Bullish on OilCrude just hit $13. either we bounce here or oil is dead forever. Long term, i think its very unlikely for oil to stay this low for long. Just look at these companies break-even cost for oil. www.reuters.com to summarize -Russia break-even cost $25-$30 per barrel I would imagine that applies to most of the middle east countries. In addition to that, most oil reserves around the world will be filled to the max by end of April so once it bursts, they will have to pay people to buy oil lol. we know that's not happening. Why is oil price so low then? because in the past few years, american oil company started to dominate the world market, we were producing tons and tons of oil and selling it, thus driving oil price down. the opec no longer had a monopoly and there is no better opportunity for them to kill these american oil company than now.( i know it's horrible for us ) So with the demand driven down 75% due to corona virus and they increased their supply by 400% ( that's a huge surplus) they instantly crushed the oil price and are forcing a lot of the us shale company to go out of business because their balance sheet was already weak. a lot of them are in the process of pending doom so they are kind of putting a clearance sale on all their oil at like $8 a barrel. Btw, 1 barrel is 42 gallons. if oil is $13 a barrel, that's $13/42g= .31cent per gallon. so? I would go long at $13, and continue to add more every $2 drop. on longer dates. or do uso.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by WallSt007
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, NFLX, IBM EARNINGS; /ZC, /CLEARNINGS: IBM (63/54) announces Monday after market close. SNAP (92/102) announces Tuesday after market close. NFLX (66/70) announces Tuesday after market close. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE SCREENED FOR RANK >50/IMPLIED >35%: XLU (77/47) GDXJ (77/84) GDX (67/65) SLV (66/45) TQQQ (63/111) USO (62/112) XLE (59/70) EWW (58/54) EWZ (53/69) XOP (59/91) BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE: IWM (72/54) QQQ (47/38) SPY (45/28) EFA (44/31) EEM (41/36) FUTURES ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK/PERCENTILE: /ES (44/40) /NQ (47/39) /YM (51/13) /RTY 72/53 /CL (62/130) /NG (94/71) /GC (67/27) /SI (66/43) /ZC (57/28) /ZS (33/17) /ZW (27/31) Notes: Pictured here is a /ZC August 21st 310/330 long call vertical, currently trading at 11.25 with a break even at 321.25 versus 321 spot. Ideally, you'd want to put this on with at least make one/risk one metrics, which would occur if the spread priced out at 10.00 even or below. /ZC is tantalizingly close to those August 2016 lows at 310 '06 ... . Another future worth mentioning here: /CL. As I write this post, the May contract is currently trading at multi-year lows at 15.09, with the June contract trading at 23.66. May drops off this week with the question being how low the June contract will go. I continue to look to sell puts on weakness in the active contract at or below $20. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 38.15 with the /VX term structure in backwardation.
CBOT:ZC1!
by NaughtyPines
Oil Related comapanies.“Unprecedented measures for unprecedented times,” Ed Morse, Citi’s global head of commodities, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday. Morse said the cut will have a significant impact in the second half of the year and help lift prices to the mid-$40s by year-end, but that there will be short-term pain while the market rebalances. --NBC I made a projection few days ago explaining why USOIL can reach $50 a barrel. Fundamental comparison of cash flows, valuation, and risk of bankruptcy.
C
by UnknownUnicorn3827973
S&P 500: The data suggests a contrarian bullish view Unfortunately, I think that the easy returns have already been made, hedging and asset allocation will be very important moving forward . 1. Initial claims are a risk, however, it's wise to take fiscal stimulus and the specific unemployment per industry into consideration. - Unemployment benefit increases by $600 per week on top of the $384 national average. This works out to $25/h based on a 40-hour workweek. For context, Washington State has the highest minimum wage at $13.50/h. Households earning less than $99k per year are also entitled to $1,200 one time payment and $500 per child. 2. The Employment change by Industry implies that the unemployment numbers are heavily concentrated among "Leisure & Hospitality", and "Education & Healthcare". Given the details of the stimulus package, the incentivized caused bias for many of these workers is forced layoff because it is a quasi pay rise. This is dollars entering the system!!! Stimulus in 2009 - 2011 was concentrated in MBS and T-Bills meaning $$$ never left the financial markets. 3. Feds response was expected given the BoP issues that arise when asset prices fall. The pain threshold today versus 2008/09 is far lower. 4. Intervention by the Fed in high yield credit specifically alleviated default risk from levered corporations. 5. Since, high yield credit has returned 22.5% since March 23rd, outperforming a number of liquid equities. 6. Growth of M2 is EXPLODING, the YoY rate of change is likely to top out closer to 20% to 25%. This has outpaced the GFC, DotCom & crises from the early 80s. The expectation would be to see VoM2 start to rally OR a blow out of Gold to the upside. In 1933 FDR confiscated Gold in tandem with fiscal stimulus so that $$ were spend which would push growth and inflation higher. If VoM2 doesn't pick up, I would expect a special tax and/or a restriction on domestic Gold consumption. Russia have recently taken this step. 7. Fear, as measured by VIX, equalled the lows of GFC. 8. A move above a1.4 ratio on the 5-day moving average of PCC has coincided with a major low, indicating that fear has likely led to overshooting on the downside. So far this has worked for a 3rd time in a row. Suggesting that mid-March was a significant low. 9. Fear & Greed hit an all tie low of 1. 10. The manufacturing recession in 2019 is an important cornerstone to understand why we are in a very transitory deflation before much higher inflation in 2021. More likely stagflation. 11. Customer inventories have been wiped out, we are currently at similar lows to the DotCom bubble burst low in 2003 and not too far away from the GFC low in 2009. We now have lots of liquidity (M2 growth), but not enough supplies. This issue compounds as lockdowns continue. 12. New Orders for manufacturing ticked higher earlier in the year suggesting that manufacturing was ready to rebuild inventories until lockdown caused a transitory drop. Similar to hospitality jobs returning after lockdown, I would expect new orders pick up thus adding manufacturing job growth into 2021. 13. Production followed new orders higher with a big spike, again, adding to the idea that inventories will be rebuilt once lockdown ends. 14. Manufacturing labor markets have been shedding throughout 201 due to slow order growth, expect this to ramp up in time as social norms are back. 15. 65% of crude demand is gasoline, as the price collapses this acts as a quasi pay rise for consumers in the form of lower oil prices. With lockdown currently reducing demand by 18 million barrels per day, prices have collapsed more than 50% in a short period of time. Taking into consideration IEA purchases and OPEX+ agreement we are likely to see a cut of between 19 to 20 million barres. It's important to recognize that markets are future discounting mechanisms, what's in the price is a demand shock. The duration of oil cuts will matter, but it puts a floor under the price in the near term. A move from $20 to $30 over the next 12 months will add inflation to markets, given the volatility that's not out of the realms of possibility. 16. Tech developments that led to Shale oil ramp up disrupted the market. This recent crash has scaled back CAPEX dramatically, this capital is not likely to come back online until prices trade closer to breakeven at $49. 17. The rate of change in rig counts in the Permian Basin is collapsing. This is supply that will remain offline until prices trade back towards $49. Conclusion, inflation follows and I dont think many are prepared.
FX:SPX500
by UnknownUnicorn266486
1