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USO

THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR EARNINGS; FXI, USO, XOP; VIX, VXX, UVXYEARNINGS: TWTR (66/54) announces earnings on Thursday before market open, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session to take advantage of post-announcement volatility crush. Pictured here is a 16 delta short strangle in the March cycle with -2.88/2.95 delta/theta metrics and break evens wide of the expected move paying 1.10. There are naturally a number of other earnings announcing next week (i.e., DIS, SNAP), but TWTR has the best implied volatility rank/30-day implied metrics to set up for a volatility contraction play. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK WITH FIRST MONTH IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: FXI (86/30), June USO (72/41), March XLE (72/33), May SMH (68/29), May XOP (56/38), March IBB (56/25), June EWZ (50/30), April GDX (30/31), May GDX (27/27), May BROAD MARKET FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK WITH THE FIRST MONTH IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: EEM (62/23), September EFA (60/15), December IWM (54/20), August QQQ (51/22), September SPY (50/18), October FUTURES (EXCLUDING CURRENCIES AND TREASURIES) ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK: /CL (64/42) /GC (47/13) /SI (38/21) /ZC (32/20) /NG (29/40) /ZS (18/18) /ZW (7/24) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 18.84 with months 1-3 in backwardation; February finished at 18.30, March at 17.80, and April at 17.83. Here, I would add short volatility spreads in either VXX or UVXY, looking to collect one-third the width of the spread in credit (for short call verticals) or not pay more than one-third the width of the spread in debit (for long put verticals) (e.g., the VXX March 20th 16/17 short call vertical, paying .34).
NYSE:TWTR
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: USO, EWZ, XLF; VIX/VIX DERIVATIVESEARNINGS: Earnings kick off in earnest this week with a bevy of financials (WFC, GS, JPM, C, BAC, MS). Generally speaking, I haven't played these in the past due to low background implied, and nothing has changed in that regard this go-around from a premium selling standpoint: WFC (30/21), GS (27/24), JPM (20/21), C (16/23), BAC (0/22), MS (0/24). That being said, it looks like the financial sector exchange-traded fund XLF (5/16) has put in a multi-year double-top, so I could see taking a bearish assumption directional shot on the notion that earnings in this sector may disappoint in a low interest rate environment. For example, the XLF February 21st 30/32 long put vertical costs 1.04/contract to put on, has a max loss metric of .96 and a break even of 30.96 versus a Friday close of 30.69, which are the kind of the risk one to make one/break even at/near where the underlying is currently trading metrics I like to see out of these. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF STOCK PRICE: UNG (36/40), February SLV (33/20), July USO (32/32), April EWZ (29/26), June GLD (26/12), January '21 Pictured here is an EWZ 20-delta short strangle set up in the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle is paying greater than 10% of the stock price, 1.91 credit, delta/theta 0/1.41. Although I would ordinarily go with the underlying paying in the shortest duration, we will start to run into seasonality issues with UNG in the February or March cycles (depending, of course, on Mother Nature), so would rather not hit that underlying non directionally here. And USO can be somewhat of a pain to trade due to its smallness. BROAD MARKET WITH THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF STOCK PRICE: EEM (66/16), September EFA (20/11), December SPY (14/12), November QQQ (9/17), September IWM (0/15), September Well, we're in a volatility lull here, so this comes as no surprise that shorter duration isn't paying. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 12.56, with the March, April, and May /VX contracts trading at 16.04, 16.56, and 16.80, respectively, so term structure trades remain viable in those months. VXX and UVXY -- my go-to derivatives instruments -- both hit new 52 week lows last week, and VXX finished the week at 14.12, UVXY at 11.59. Although VIX has room to trundle lower from here, it probably wouldn't be a bad thing to pull off a few units in profit put on higher up the ladder and then wait for the next >25% pop in VIX (which would be a modest pop at 16 or so) to start legging back in.
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
2
Long Term Bear, do not hold 3x futures based productsI enjoy trading DRIP and I believe long term, oil is worth less than today. ESG is a movement that will continue, especially when it comes to China and India's eventual and inevitable higher participating in the space. Day trade DRIP, but do not hold. The issue arises from the cost to roll the futures and the cost to leverage the future or ETF into a swap that returns the 3x. The cost is high, the slippage is insurmountable, and the product will deteriorate even if you chose the correct trade. Examples of this are everywhere. Trade events and noise, it is a risk / reward play. Saudi oil field was the last great play for this product, any large move up in CL1 would be a short term long DRIP. If you chose to trade the technicals, do not use the ETF, but CL1. This includes USO, this will also deteriorate away from CL1. **no position, but always waiting **happy to share further details on this topic and how these products function
AMEX:DRIP
by RCB1229