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USO

Oil: Close below 51 might trigger a big sell offOil chart doesnt look good for bulls at all, if it closes below 51 (which seems to be the "demand" line) we might see a massive sell off to last year's lows. However, seasonally oil rallies in August 70% of the time (long August 7th to 27th) It's in "no mans land here" basically with the conflicting signals , probably safer to just daytrade it until we get a clearer picture. **If you're interested in joining a group of like-minded traders, send me a PM. This is NOT a subscription service, just bunch of average traders sharing insights in a FREE group
FX:USOIL
by D707
1
Fundamental QuagmireIt appears the underlying fundamentals have hit equilibrium. The supply/demand imbalance continues to get worse as more countries post econ data supporting slowing trade. My favorite number so far this week is from Korea. The 11th largest economy in the world reported a 10% decline in exports from the previous year. Here in the US we are expecting inventories to pick up (possibly posting net gains for the first time in weeks) as production gets back to peak capacity after tropical storm Barry disruptions last week. Despite the increasingly bad news for crude bulls, geo-political tensions continue to escalate in the gulf as Iran seized a UK affiliated tanker and its crew. The UK is said to be looking at sanctions against Iran but I doubt sanctions would be enough to see prices rise. If we get another tank seizure or drone incident that could change. I'm still bearish long term and net bearish in the short term but I think this could be a "choppy" week for Oil as the bull and bears fundamental narratives vie for control of price action. Longs should be wary of bearish API and EIA numbers this week and Shorts will want to stay up to date on developments in the gulf. Agree? Disagree? Let me know what you are thinking!
NYMEX:CL1!
by CheersOrTears