UCO a crude oil ETF LONGUCO popped in April and then dropped into a consolidation in May and June where
it set up a base shown by the POC line on the volume profile. Once over the POC
on July 6th on the daily chart coinciding with a golden cross on the HMA 56/210
combination the bull trend began. The dual time frame RS lines in the 60s suggest
more to come. I am trading UCO and similar oil-based instruments including USOUSD
or forex in the near term until I see signals of a topping that are not yet evident.
USO
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/11/23For Friday, the 81.49 - 81.64 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.15 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.
In the more immediate vicinity, 84.14 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.15 indicates 86.15 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures - once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks.
A daily settlement above 86.15 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.
Downside Friday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 78.02 then expected by the end of next week, 70.85 attainable by the end of September.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/10/23For Thursday, the 81.49 - 81.66 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.28 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.
In the more immediate vicinity, 84.18 can contain session activity, above which 86.28 is attainable intraday and able to contain weekly buying pressures, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks.
A daily settlement above 86.28 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.
Downside Thursday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 77.86 then expected within 3 - 5 days, 70.77 by the end of September.
IMPP a volatile penny oil/energy LONG pre-earningsIMPP is rising from its lows of July after falling from a triple top in June at 3.8 which is
the target for a long trade. Price is now above the POC line of an intermediate term volume
profile having crossed the mean VWAP line anchored at the share split (purple and thick black
lines respectively). Price bounced off the first negative standard deviation line making this
a VWAP band bounce. The MACD lines are upgoing and so diverging. I see a stop loss of
0.2 as compared with a profit target of 0.6 making this setup a r:R ratio of 1:3. I will go long
here also knowing of the rising energy sector supporting this ticker. This stock is a retail
trader favorite when energy is" hot". With earnings in the morning, for me this is a no brainer
to buy in the premarket and if rising complement with a call option. If you want my idea of
a good call option, please ask in a comment.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/8/23For Tuesday, the 81.49 - 81.71 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.54 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.
Upside Tuesday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.54 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.
Downside Tuesday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.
$CL Crude Oil FuturesCrude oil futures have been in a parallel uptrend since June 28th. On August 5th, Crude Oil futures tested the double top from April 13th, but were unable to break through. This is a bullish sign, as it suggests that buyers are still in control of the market. Now, we are waiting for a period of bullish consolidation before a breakout to the upside.
The next resistance level to watch is the $90 per barrel mark. If crude oil futures can break through this level, it could open the door to further gains.
Overall, the outlook for crude oil futures is bullish. The current uptrend is still intact, and buyers are still in control of the market. A breakout to the upside is likely in the near future.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/7/23For Monday, the 81.49 - 81.73 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.67 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.
Upside Monday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.67 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.
Downside Monday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/4/23For Friday, the 80.50 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.77 is likely by the end of next week, 62.14 attainable over the next 3-5 months. On the other hand, a weekly settlement today at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61 – page 2) would set off a meaningful buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3-5 weeks, 103.33 within 3-5 months (p 2). Downside Friday, 78.97 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.97 allows 76.77 intraday, able to contain selling into next week and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2-3 weeks.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/3/23For Thursday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.57 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.
On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement tomorrow at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months.
Downside Thursday, 78.56 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.56 indicates 76.57 - 77.37 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/2/23For Wednesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.48 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.
On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months.
Downside Wednesday, closing below 80.53 indicates a good weekly high, 76.48 - 76.97 then expected by the end of next week, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/1/23For Tuesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 73.40 is likely by the end of August, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.
On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.48 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 over the following 3 - 5 months.
Downside Tuesday, 78.12 can contain session weakness, while closing below 78.12 indicates a good high through next week, 76.12 - 76.13 then expected over that time horizon, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
Retracement and higher high on CL?We successfully broke the weekly trend line and right now we are at the daily sell zone. I would like to see some retracement and then a higher high to around 83 area.
Also, we crossed the 200 EMA on the daily timeframe which is a strong trend reversal signal.
Entry - 77.5-78 (I would wait for a retracement to this level to go long. We can enter early around 78.5 if you do not want to miss the move.)
Stop - 76.85 ( I would like to see a daily close below this level )
First target - 80
Second target - 82
Final target - 83
Please let me know your inputs. Happy trading!
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/31/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.61 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Upside, 81.61 can contain buying into later year, once tested 62.14 attainable over the following 3 - 5 months, where the market can bottom out on a seasonal basis.
On the other hand, a weekly settlement above 81.61 indicates a good low for the year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 considered a 3 - 5 month target able to contain buying well into next year.
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For Monday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area remains can contain buying through summer activity, below which 73.40 is likely by the end of August, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.
On the other hand, closing today above 81.61 allows 84.52 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 over the following 3 - 5 months.
Downside Monday, 78.12 can contain session weakness, while closing below 78.12 indicates a good high through next week, 74.83 - 75.41 then expected within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
GOLD to OIL prices the RATIO ANALYSIS ( and meaning )GLD is an ETF tracking gold futures prices across a blend of durations. USO is a similar ETF
for crude oil. I was interested to see what the ratios look like and considering the trading
advise of buy low should I be trading and bartering gold to get oil or viceversa. It is applicable
for be because I am in part a commodities trader and has some activities on the leveraged forex
market.
On the daily chart dressed with a set of two long term anchored VWAP standard deviation lines ,
and some horizontal static resistance lines added, it is obvous to me that the ratio is
currently sitting on the mean VWAP band for support confluent with the lower trendline
of the ascending megaphone pattern which is typically considered demostrative of increasing
volatility. I conclude that if I am a barterer I should trade my oil for gold. If I have gold only
and dry powder I should increase my gold holdings. If I prefer trading oil I should short the
market. This is because the ratio is set up to rise. The means that gold will rise or oil will
fall or some hybrid combination of that. My entry here is when the volatility on the indicator
is green and crosses over the running average.
This is a simple demonstration of how charting with TradingView can help a trader make well-
grounded and profitable trading decisions while lowering risk and making profits more probable.
What do you think of this analysis? What are your agreements or disagreements with it?
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/28/23For Friday, the 78.04 level can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 80.65 - 81.73 long-term resistance remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain buying through summer activity.
A weekly settlement today at or above 82.55 (1% above 81.73) would set off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 then expected over the next 3 - 5 months.
Downside Friday, closing below 78.04 indicates a good high through next week, 76.57 then expected within several days, 73.38 within 2 - 3 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/27/23For Thursday, the 77.96 level can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 80.65 - 81.73 long-term resistance remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain buying through summer activity.
A weekly settlement above 81.73 would set off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 then expected over the following 3 - 5 months.
Downside Thursday, closing below 77.96 indicates a good weekly high, 76.23 then expected within several days, 73.35 within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/26/23For Wednesday, the 77.88 level can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 80.65 - 81.73 long-term resistance remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain buying through summer activity.
A weekly settlement above 81.73 would set off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 then expected over the following 3 - 5 months.
Downside Wednesday, closing below 77.88 indicates a good weekly high, 75.88 then expected within several days, 73.32 by the end of next week, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/24/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.73 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Inside this wide range, 77.71 can contain weekly buying pressures, 73.27 weekly selling pressures, with a settlement below 73.27 indicating 68.25 within several weeks, where the market can bottom out on a monthly basis.
Closing below 68.25 indicates 62.14 within several weeks, able to contain selling into autumn activity and a meaningful downside continuation point into later year.
Upside, a weekly settlement above 81.73 indicates a good low for the year, 103.70 seven considered 3 - 5 to month target able to contain buying well into next year.
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For Monday, the 76.98 - 77.71 region can contain weekly buying pressures, possibly through August activity, below which 73.27 remains 1 - 2 week objective, possibly yielding 68.25 by the end of August.
Downside, 74.66 can contain session weakness, while closing below 74.66 signals 73.27 tomorrow, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for signaling 68.25 within 1 - 2 more weeks, able to contain selling through August activity.
Upside Monday, closing above 77.71 indicates 80.61 - 81.73 by the end of next week, longer-term resistance able to contain buying through summer trade, with a weekly settlement above 81.73 setting off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 that expected over the following 3 - 5 months.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/21/23For Friday, 73.24 and contain selling into later next week, once tested the 77.63 formation attainable again within a full week of activity.
On the other hand, closing today below 73.24 signals 68.25 within 1 - 2 weeks, where the market can bottom out through August trade.
Upside Friday, the 77.63 - 77.72 area can contain buying through next week, and below which the market prone to testing 68.25 over the next several weeks.
On the other hand, closing above 77.72 signals 81.85 by the end of next week, longer-term resistance able to contain buying into later year and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/20/23For Thursday, 73.22 and contain selling through the balance of the week, once tested the 77.55 formation attainable again by the end of next week.
On the other hand, closing today below 73.22 signals 68.25 within 1 - 2 weeks, where the market can bottom out through August activity.
Upside Thursday, the 77.55 - 77.72 area can contain buying through next week, and below which 68.25 is attainable over the next several weeks.
On the other hand, closing above 77.72 signals 81.85 by the end of next week, longer-term resistance able to contain buying into later year and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/19/23For Wednesday, 76.00 can contain intraday buying pressures, below which 73.19 is attainable intraday, able to contain selling through the balance of the week and the region to settle below for then indicating 68.25 longer-term support within 1 - 2 more weeks.
Upside Wednesday, pushing/opening above 76.00 allows 77.46 - 77.72 intraday, able to contain weekly buying pressures, and below which 68.25 is attainable over the next several weeks.
On the other hand, closing above 77.72 signals 81.85 by the end of next week, able to contain buying into later year and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/18/23For Tuesday, 76.20 can contain daily buying pressures, below which the targeted 72.87 - 73.34 area is likely today, able to contain selling into later week and the region to settle below for then indicating 67.08 within 1 - 2 more weeks.
Upside Tuesday, closing back above 76.20 signals 77.77 within 1 - 2 days, able to contain weekly buying pressures, and below which 67.08 is attainable over the next several weeks.
On the other hand, closing above 77.77 signals 81.85 within 1 - 2 weeks, long-term resistance able to contain buying into autumn activity and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/17/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.85 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Inside of this wide range 77.70 and 67.08 can both contain weekly activity, possibly into August trade.
Closing below 67.08 indicates 62.14 within several weeks, able to contain selling into autumn activity and the level to settle below for then indicating 53.87 within several months, longer term Fibonacci support able to contain selling into later year.
Upside, a settlement above 77.70 indicates 81.85 within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain buying into autumn trade, and the region to settle above on a weekly basis for then indicating 94.67 within several months, able to contain annual highs.
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For Monday, 77.70 can contain weekly buying pressures, possibly into August activity, below which the 72.86 level is likely within the week, 67.08 attainable over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
Downside Monday, 75.45 can contain session weakness, while closing today below 75.45 signals a test tomorrow of 72.86 - 73.16, able to contain selling into later week and the region to settle below for then indicating 67.08 within 1 - 2 more weeks.
Upside Monday, closing above 77.70 signals 81.85 within 1 - 2 weeks, long-term resistance able to contain buying into autumn activity and a significant upside continuation region over the same time horizon.