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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/13/23For Thursday, the 72.41 - 72.84 area can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which the 77.56 formation is likely by the end of next week or sooner, able to contain weekly buying pressures - possibly through the balance of July.   A daily settlement above 77.56 indicates the more significant 81.97 long-term resistance level within 1 - 2 more weeks, where the broader market can top out into later year and a significant upside continuation point over the same time horizon.   Downside Thursday, closing below 72.41 signals 69.05 within several days, possibly yielding another test next week of 67.08 within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain selling on a weekly basis and above which 77.56 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/12/23For Wednesday, 72.83 can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which the 77.48 formation is likely by the end of next week or sooner, able to contain weekly buying pressures when tested - possibly through the balance of July.   A daily settlement above 77.48 indicates the more significant 81.97 long-term resistance level within 1 - 2 more weeks, where the broader market can top out into later year and a significant upside continuation point over the same time horizon.   Downside Wednesday, closing below 72.83 signals 69.15 within several days, possibly yielding another test next week of 67.08, able to contain selling on a weekly basis and above which 77.48 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
OILU an ETF for OIL - Leveraged and LongOILU is a risky high volatility ETF on oil exploration and production. Where there are risk and volatility there can also be plentiful profits. On the 4H chart,OILU can be seen breaking up through long-term anchored VWAP bands in a trend that began in mid-May. Price is now approaching the mean VWAP lines. The POC line validates those VWAP lines coming in at nearly an identical price level. On the MACD, negative amplitudes have gradually decreased in a fashion consistent with bullish divergence. The RSI indicator shows the MTF RSIs to be in mid-range suitable for taking an entry without evidence of oversold or overbought parameters. Fundamentally, a variety of factors including OPEC the re-emergence of the Chinese economy, Russia's war fear of a recession causing a decrease in demand for oil all have contributed to a mixed picture. The chart is suggesting a long trade to me and so I will take up the suggestion. I will set a stop loss at the recent pivot low of $32 while targeting the highest VWAP band at $47. I will raise the stop loss to break-even when price hits $38 while respecting the ATR and volatility. I see this as a safe trade with a potential upside of about 33%
AMEX:OILULong
by AwesomeAvani
1
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/11/23For Tuesday, 72.83 can contain selling into later week, above which the 77.41 formation is likely by the end of next week or sooner, able to contain weekly buying pressures when tested, possibly through the balance of July.   A daily settlement above 77.41 indicates the more significant 81.97 long-term resistance level within 1 - 2 more weeks, where the broader market can top out into later year and a significant upside continuation point over the same time horizon.   Downside Tuesday, closing below 72.83 signals 69.25 within several days, possibly allowing another test of 67.08 by the end of next week, able to contain selling on a weekly basis and above which 77.41 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
2023.6.16 Daily European Perspective USDX has plummeted !2023.6.16 Daily European Perspective USDX has plummeted ! Hello, I'm Older Duan. Today is Friday, June 16 2023. Now it's 16pm Beijing time. Let me give you a quick comment on the technical forms of the current international mainstream varieties! First, what we see is the daily graph of the dollar index. As shown in the figure, the U.S. Dollar Index broke down yesterday, breaking through the daily line level of 55MA and the top to bottom golden section of 2.382! Now, let's look at gold. Now you can see the daily chart of gold. The figure superimposes the combination of gold's recent bottom-up golden section and Fibonacci parameter mean square! As shown in the figure, after breaking through the daily level of 144MA yesterday, gold rebounded to the 2.000 level (around $1960) of the bottom up gold split! Then, in the following time today, just use this position as an important point in the day for Bitwise operation! Above this position, bulls dominate; Below this position, bears dominate! Let's take a look at American crude oil. What you are now seeing is daily level candle chart of US crude oil. The graph superimposes the recent bottom-up golden section of US crude oil and the Fibonacci parameter mean square combination! As shown in the figure, US crude oil surged by $3 yesterday, returning above the integer level of $70. Both today and yesterday's highs are close to the daily level of 21MA ($71.09)! Then, in the following time today, just use this position as an important point in the day for Bitwise operation! Above this point, bulls dominate; Below this point, bears dominate! Let's look at EURUSD. What you can see now is the daily chart of EURUSD. The figure superimposes the combination of European and American currencies against the recent bottom of the golden section and Fibonacci parameter mean square! As shown in the figure, European and American currencies rose sharply against each other yesterday, about to test last month's bearish starting point, which is the opening price on May 11, 2023 (1.09820)! Then this position will be used as the Bitwise operation operation of the important point in the day in the future! Above this position, bulls dominate; Under this position, bears dominate! Finally, let's take a look at GBPUSD. Now you can see the daily chart of GBPUSD. The figure superimposes the combination of the recent bottom of the GBPUSD against the golden section and the Fibonacci parameter mean square! As shown in the figure, the pound US currency has hit a new high in recent times! Then in the future, the previous opening price of 1.28283, which was opening price on April 25, 2022, can be used as an important Bitwise operation in the day! Above this point, bulls dominate; Below this point, bears dominate! Well, the above is a quick inventory of the technical forms of the international mainstream varieties in today's European period! Special reminder,Today is Friday, weekly line will be cloesd tonight! Please pay attention to the risks!! Im Older Duan. Wish you happy win . Goodbye!
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Think_More
2023.6.14 Daily European Perspective GOLD is about to test 19302023.6.14 Daily European Perspective GOLD is about to test 1930 ? Hello, I'm Older Duan. Today is Wednesday, June 14 2023. Now it's 16pm Beijing time. Let me give you a quick comment on the technical forms of the current international mainstream varieties! First, what we see is the daily graph of the dollar index. As shown in the figure, the daily closing line of U.S. Dollar Index returned to below 144MA! Now, let's look at gold. Now you can see the daily chart of gold. The figure superimposes the combination of gold's recent bottom-up golden section and Fibonacci parameter mean square! As shown in the figure, gold remains relatively weak near the lower edge of the recent oscillation range! Then, in the subsequent period today, we can take today's opening price ($1943.89) as the important point of the day! Above this position, bulls dominate; Below this position, bears dominate! Let's take a look at American crude oil. What you are now seeing is 4-hour level candle chart of US crude oil. The graph superimposes the recent bottom-up golden section of US crude oil and the Fibonacci parameter mean square combination! As shown in the figure, US crude oil rebounded upwards yesterday and today, but still did not return above the integer level of $70! Then, in the following time today, we can take the integer pass of $70 as the important point in the day! Above this point, bulls dominate; Below this point, bears dominate! Let's look at EURUSD. What you can see now is the daily chart of EURUSD. The figure superimposes the combination of European and American currencies against the recent bottom of the golden section and Fibonacci parameter mean square! As shown in the figure, European and American currencies rose and fell against yesterday, still engaging in long short competition near the daily level of 144MA (1.07952)! Then this position will be used as the important point in the day ! Above this position, bulls dominate; Under this position, bears dominate! Finally, let's take a look at GBPUSD. Now you can see the daily chart of GBPUSD. The figure superimposes the combination of the recent bottom of the GBPUSD against the golden section and the Fibonacci parameter mean square! As shown in the figure, the pound US dollar showed an engulfed bullish line against yesterday's daily line, completely engulfing the previous day's decline! In the future, the opening price (1.26247) on May 11, 2023 will be taken as the important point of the day! Above this point, bulls dominate; Below this point, bears dominate! Well, the above is a quick inventory of the technical forms of the international mainstream varieties in today's European period! Special reminder, today is Wednesday, and tomorrow morning there will be a Federal Reserve interest rate resolution and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell! Please pay attention to the risks! Im Older Duan. Wish you happy win . Goodbye!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Think_More
NRGD a 3X Leveraged ETF that shorts oilNRGD goes up when oil goes down; this ETF tracks the oil futures ; it is leveraged and managed. Here on the one-hour chart with an Bollinger Bands and EMA bands indicator added, it can be seen that price had been trending down in two waves beginning June 1st , Upon dropping outside the BB lower line, price reversed upward to reach the upper BB line and reversed again. Finally, price dropped outside the BB lower line and reversed this past Thursday. The RSI oscillator has recently trended between 65 and 40, suggesting healthy price action without and oversold or overbought conditions. As it is now trending up again. I see it as suitable for a l long trade. I have plotted horizontal resistance lines in order to plan a tiered exit from a trade of 4 shares where I will partially close the position by selling a share each time price reaches one of those lines. At the same time, I will move the stop loss up to midway between its l location and that line. I will repeat this until all shares are sold. I am expecting a 12% profit overall for a week-long trade. This will be a free trade without risk after the first move of the stop loss to above the entry point. If the RSI remains below 80, I may let the last share run until I am alerted that price has hit the BB upper line by an alert or alternatively set up a trailing stop loss of 2%.
AMEX:NRGDLong
by AwesomeAvani
Crude Oil Ka-BoingNice long tail on the weekly chart, after a lower low. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv appear bearish but this is suspiciously like a hidden dragon. Taken altogether, the first resistance is 76, and once close above 80 is firmed bullish. The lower low suggests more downside, but the length of that tail is telling a very bullish story for the next couple of weeks. So... expecting a consolidation range fighting between bears and bulls between 70-80; while leaning towards a bullish breakout much later... perhaps (ideally) after higher low. Do note that in alignment to the earlier post about the USD dropping, it does look like Crude now has a better chance of turning around to reinstate its bullish efforts.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
CRUDE to bounce a bit, if at all, else dive hardBased on Crude's weekly chart, it clearly lost the bullish plot (posted 1st May, see linked post). As of the current Crude futures price action, a few preliminary observations can be recorded... 1. A lower low is recorded, and this aligns with the weekly technical outlook of a more bearish close to the weeks ahead; 2. Yesterday closing at 68.52 broke down all prior marked supports, except for the TDST at 66.12. Note that a close below and 3 days of closing below 66.12 changes Crude into a bearish primary trend. So, expect a lot of dancing about (or bounces off) this area, until that happens. 3. Today closing is important... IF closing at current levels, then a bounce to 74-76 can be expected, due to the long shadow/tail (green ellipse). Otherwise, a breakdown below the TDST support level turns all bearish. 4. Technically, it appears to favour further downside once market hours open. MACD and VolDiv on the daily are aligned to weekly indication of more downside momentum, having already crossed into bear territory. Watch the USD... it has a lot to do with the magnitude, although other fundamentals will affect Crude directly. Mindful that tomorrow is the Non-farm Payrolls.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
USO Up or Down OIL ECOMONY in fluxAs certain countries want to exchange oil for money with anything but USD such as Chinese Yen or even a cryptocurrency to be launched by US neutrals or adversaries cooperating, USO on this chart rose dramatically over the past month and is now sitting at resistance as shown by the LuxAlgo Supply and Demand Zone indicator. The RSI shows possible bearish divergence perhaps heralding a reversal of the uptrend. I see this as a good place to take a short sell entry and most buyers have taken their profits. Fundamentally there are enough competing geopolitical and macroeconomic factors to deprive USO of the energy to push through resistance. See also the link below from US federal forecasters. I see this as a short trade at a limit price below the resistance zone and stop loss above it. Profit targets can be the VWAP, the midline between the supply and demand zones as a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend and finally one standard deviation below the anchored VWAP making for a safe three-tiered take-profit procedure to optimize profit and diminish risk also adjusting the stop loss at intervals using ATR as a guide. 40% at each of the first two targets and the remainder at the last. Put options 20-30 DTE at the a strike above the resistance zone for a good delta are another consideration.
AMEX:USOShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
Crude Oil Looking To Complete Impulse Elliott Wave SequenceCL_F (Crude Oil) favors higher in 5 wave Impulse Elliott Wave sequence as wave 1 before pullback starts. It placed (B) at $64.12 low on 3/20/2023. Above (B) low, it placed ((i)) at $71.67 high & ((ii)) at $66.82 low. ((ii)) was 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((i)). It favored ended ((iii)) at $81.81 high on 4/04/2023 high as extended ((iii)). Within ((iii)), it placed (i) at $74.37 high, (ii) at $72.61 low, (iii) at $81.69 high, (iv) at $79.00 low & (v) ended at $81.81 high as ((iii)) as 2.0 Fibonacci extension of ((i)). It ended ((iv)) at $79.37 low as double as shallow correction on 4/11/2023. Above ((iv)) low, it favors higher in ((v)) of 1. Above ((iv)) low of $79.37, it ended (i) of ((v)) at $81.85 high & (ii) at $81.28 low. It ended (iii) at $83.53 high & favors pullback in (iv) before upside resumes in (v) to finish ((v)) as wave 1. Impulse sequence expects to finish with momentum divergence in fifth wave against third wave before correction starts. So, if it erases the momentum divergence with more upside, then it can be the part of nest within impulse sequence before pullback starts. Once it finished wave 1 as impulse sequence, it expects to pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 3/20/2023 low before turning higher. It expects to remain supported at extreme areas in pullback.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
CRUDE - the technical alignment to the UPside Part IIThe daily chart shows greater details as to why a shallow retracement of sorts is expected. The Gap occurred after the Sell Setup completed. This becomes an overextension. The overextension is now a collection of 4 dojis of indecision. This tells that it is not a Gap and Run scenario, and leaves the Gap and close to be more likely. The technical indicators MACD and VolDiv are also tapering off and need to retrace to launch further into the longer term picture. The gap is denoted by the red box. The expected bounce zone by the green box inside the red box. Noted that the daily trend is still a bear trend as the TDST Resistance of 80.94 was not exceeded by the Sell Setup closing 31 March. This is again another point suggesting a retracement... before a new Sell Setup can be started to break above 80.94. Oh... watch the orange 23-week EMA levels too! Btw, for more info on these Buy/Sell Setups, you should look into Thomas DeMark indicators, especially from his original books or the more recent condensed version by Jason Perl.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
1
CRUDE - the technical alignment to the UPsideJsut reviewing Crude, especially in light of the recent major gap up last week after OPEC decided to cut output... Orientate to the weekly chart shows the TD Setup displayed and the Sell Setup (green box early 2022) and Buy Setup (red box mid 2022). These set the TDST, and the support is at 66.12, being the lowest point of the Sell Setup. Noted that the Buy Setup did not close below the TDST, and so noted that the long term (weeks) primary trend is bullish. Price action however, decided to test the TDST in March 2023 and bounced off. This is a bullish sign and was an expected bounce point (trade taken and exited btw, shared in earlier analysis). This bounce off was followed through by a nice gap up and a Sell Setup (bullish) restarted. Noted also that 123.68 is the TDST, which is a little far for the next two weeks, with the exception of an anomaly of very severe events happening, it is unlikely to break that level any time soon. Nonetheless, there are ranges to watch... the yellow, red, and green boxes denote these. The yellow box is the major range which Crude is ranging and needs to break out of. Expected to as the break back in a few weeks ago suggests that a breakout is in the cards. You see, when a breakdown is reversed and price breaks back into a range, it tends to go out the other side later. For now, the gap up represents a gap range that is likely to be tested to close the gap. However, price action, and other technical indicators like the MACD and VolDov are suggesting that the attempt to close the gap would be short lived. For this, a smaller time frame analysis marked out the green box for a probably bounce off support level in the likely to fail close the gap attempt, at about 77.5 to 78. Shorter term is likely to see a stall up to 82ish. Long term, bullish, but a shallow retracement and then reversal upside should be in play...
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
USO (CRUDE) Bullish Bounce... something is up!Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down. So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the 15min chart ( system alerts set based on 15min intraday chart as a personal standard ). It was a calculated risk and probability count. USO/Crude had oversold, bounced off a couple of times, and broke our of a short term trend line. The Daily chart had a range breakdown, followed by long tails for the previous three days. It appeared to have a good probability of recovering. A position was taken (USO 50 delta Call). From there, we can observe the volatility (and hence you prefer to be in earlier and smaller position) and the development of the trade in the daily chart shows the opening of gap ups and closing of gap downs. Furthermore, USO / Crude broke back into the range. And for such failures that recover and break back into range (orange and/or yellow box), there is a high probability of breaking out the other end. And yet other observations have the Fibonacci retracement bounce off the 50% to project a near term target of about 65.68 (150%). All these are encouraged by the previous day's candlestick as Monday's candle gapped up and closed a previous gap down, and ended the day very near to intraday high. Daily technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) have crossed over and are starting a bullish alignment.(Noted that the breakdown out of the range did have a VolDiv bullish divergence that was very obvious, an early suggesting that it was going to bounce and recover. Going forward, USO is starting to be overbought, and a possible pullback to head up further to near term target is expected. Could be more bullish or otherwise more bearish. but am expecting the range support to hold better this time.
AMEX:USOLong
by Auguraltrader
USO: Forest Bathing 🌲🌳 🌲🌳Forest bathing can improve mental or physical health, as spending time in nature can reduce stress and pain and boost positive mood. The United States Oil Fund should take this to heart and set out for the lush composite consisting of the turquoise zone between $52.24 and $43.83 and the green zone between $46.36 and $40.29. Therefore, it should drop below the support at $63.00, which should provide further downwards pressure. Wave 2 in turquoise should then ideally finish just before the support at $45.30, changing into upwards movement afterward. It is also possible, though, that USO could climb above the resistance at $72.22 to expand the last low in the form of wave alt.b in orange first before heading downwards.
AMEX:USO
by MarketIntel
CRUDE to bounce too!Been a while since crude futures were reviewed, and since the last post, crude categorically dropped... but it maintained a decent range between 70-80/82. The thing about crude now is that it appears to be coiling and is starting to show signs of a break out. Here is how I see it... the candlestick pattern (especially in the Daily chart, not shown here) is bullish, at least leaning towards bullishness. The MACD is aligning up, and the VolDiv is tapering but not crossed over yet. The MACD is forming that not so subtle anymore bullish divergence. Also noted that the TD Sequential is still in bullish primary trend mode (not shown here). Now, to qualify a good break out, we need to set some parameters. 82 is the break out resistance level (green line) and this is about half of the range since August 2022. Coincidentally (or not), the 23EMA is at 81, and the weekly price needs to close above 81. And a really good break out (out of the yello box range) above 94 would be seriously bullish, although that might mean the Ukr-Russ conflict might have escalated. Sidenote that the USD in a choke-hold and depreciating would help Crude rally up more. Alternatively, a 23EMA failure, MACD cross under can happen as the VolDiv accelerates further into bearish territory. a close below 72 would favour the bear case. Given the longer term view, it appears Crude is ready for a (surprise) bounce, and is likely to revisit the last low in December 2022, probably May-July 2023. While this is not obvious in the weekly chart, the Monthly chart TD Sequential indicates, so heads up.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader