USOIL Short Setup: Key Zone to WatchUSOIL is testing a significant resistance zone around the 78.00 level, an area where price previously faced strong selling pressure. Current price action suggests potential exhaustion, with signs of rejection visible.
If sellers take control, a pullback toward the 76.01 level, acting as the first key support, could be in play. Traders should look for bearish confirmation, such as reversal candlestick patterns or breakdowns below recent lows, to position for a potential short move.
Crude Oil WTI
CL Bearish Outlook Look like after price took out BSL at the PDH from 80.16 it has moved lower and has been targeting PDLs. There is a nice discount D BISI that I believe price will trade into and if price is truly Bearish then it will trade right through the D BISI CE level and find minimal support and then the next area of focus could be the double bottom at 72.70
Lets continue to watch price and see how it delivers.
USOIL H1 | Potential Bearish BreakoutBased on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 77.058, which is a pullback resistance. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bearish setup.
Our take profit is set at 75.240, a pullback support level, marking a logical target for the trade.
The stop loss is set at 79.010, above the recent swing high, providing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bearish bias.
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USOIL - Expect retracement !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USOIL.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. After price filled the imbalance we can see price to start the retracement, I expect continuation till level 74.00 where we have huge imbalance.
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Weekly and Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ closed higher, breaking above the upper trendline resistance on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, the sell signal is still active, and the MACD has yet to cross above the signal line. Therefore, even if the market rises early this week, it could potentially retreat again. This underscores the need to avoid chasing highs.
On the daily chart, a buy signal was generated with today’s candle, but it is not confirmed by yesterday’s action. If today’s session ends with a bearish candle, the buy signal could disappear. For a sustained upward move, today must close with a bullish candle and create a clear buy signal. Furthermore, for this signal to be meaningful, the signal line must move above the zero line, with a wider divergence between the MACD and the signal line driven by additional gains.
On the 240-minute chart, a long bullish candle has created a potential third wave up. Breaking through the upper trendline is significant, but whether this uptrend will continue remains uncertain. Additionally, with U.S. markets closed today for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, today's and tomorrow’s daily candles will be combined. Expect sideways movement with a bullish tilt today, with the main market session tomorrow likely determining the direction. Focus on buying on dips while avoiding chasing highs.
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil closed lower, forming an upper wick on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, the price is significantly distanced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages, suggesting that this week could see consolidation or a pullback from the $79 resistance level.
On the daily chart, crude has fallen below the 5-day moving average, now trading within a range between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The $74–$75 range represents an attractive buy zone during a pullback. This area aligns with the weekly 5-day moving average, making it a critical level to watch.
Around $76, where the 10-day moving average lies, significant support exists on intraday charts. Observing whether this level holds on the first test is crucial. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD remains significantly above the zero line, favoring continued buying on dips. The first key support is around $76, and the second is in the $74–$75 range, where the MACD could attempt another bullish crossover. Be mindful of reduced trading volumes due to the U.S. market holiday and focus on range-bound strategies.
GOLD
Gold faced resistance near the 2760 level, closing with a doji candle. On the weekly chart, the MACD is diverging from the signal line, suggesting that further upside may face resistance around the 2785 level. If the MACD on the weekly chart fails to form a golden cross, a pullback may occur.
On the daily chart, the strong buy trend remains intact, favoring a buy-focused strategy. However, on the 240-minute chart, a potential dead cross could signal short-term corrections. With U.S. markets closed today and tomorrow, gold could dip to the 5-day moving average, creating buying opportunities during pullbacks.
For today, short-term selling at highs with a focus on key support levels for buying on dips is recommended. Sideways movement during pre-market hours may continue, with tomorrow’s main session likely setting the next direction. Stick to box-range trading and take advantage of key opportunities if prices reach critical levels.
With U.S. markets closed on Monday, reduced trading volumes make box-range trading strategies more effective. Use this time to prepare for potential opportunities at key levels. Stay diligent with risk management, and have a successful trading week ahead.
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21510 / 21480 / 21350 / 21310 / 21270
-Sell: 21650 / 21740 / 21780 / 21880
Crude Oil - Bullish Market
-Buy: 76.90 / 76.30 / 75.70 / 74.95
-Sell: 77.80 / 78.25 / 78.60 / 79.00
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2730 / 2723 / 2719 / 2715
-Sell: 2747 / 2753 / 2758 / 2762 / 2777
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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USOIL SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
USOIL uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 72.06 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the USOIL pair.
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WTI Crude continues with bearish tilt until Trendline is brokenBLACKBULL:WTI Crude has reached the top of the long-term triangular structure. Momentum benefits the upside but the long-term liquidity trendline is more important.
Optimism (as per Sentimentrader data) shows a potential optimism.
I will wait for the breakdown of near support to enter short
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OUR TRADE TODAY ON OILToday, we took 3 trades, A profitable and 2 in loss.
I will share the 3 of them so I share with you the other side of trading with only few people show which is losses.
Our trade on OIL went as expected, but the other one on NASDAQ and GOLD didn't go as planned which left me and my clients with couple $ up. And that's normal since we're still in profit on the weekly and monthly basis.
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Oil Market: WTI Barrel Faces the $78 BarrierOver the past two sessions, the price of crude oil has dropped more than 2%. This decline coincides with the Israeli Prime Minister reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. The temporary peace deal has been perceived as favorable for oil production, as it eliminates a geopolitical conflict that could have disrupted operations in the Middle East. As a result, production expectations have risen, contributing to downward pressure on crude prices.
Uptrend
The WTI crude market has maintained a steady upward trend since early December 2024. However, the most recent bullish peak showed significant momentum, which could signal the emergence of bearish corrections in the price.
MACD Indicator
The MACD and signal lines remain bullish but have begun to exhibit a negative slope. Additionally, the histogram has fallen to a fully neutral position around the 0 line of the indicator. These developments suggest a potential exhaustion of previous bullish momentum, creating opportunities for bearish movements.
RSI Indicator
The RSI line remains close to the overbought territory, hovering near the 70 level. Any future movements that revisit this level could increase the likelihood of short-term bearish corrections.
Key Levels
$78: This is the current resistance level, coinciding with the highs from August 2024. Sustained moves above this level could strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially accelerate the ongoing uptrend.
$72: A crucial support zone where bearish corrections are likely to see significant activity. Moves near or below this level could jeopardize the formation of the current upward channel.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
WTI OIL expecting a +10% rise.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Up, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since the December 27 break-out. The price has already made contact with the bottom of the pattern (Higher Lows trend-line) so it is already a buy opportunity.
The ultimate buy signal technically, however, has been the 4H RSI Higher Lows since the December 06 Low, so it is possible to see one more small pull-back before the trend reverses.
Since the previous two Bullish Legs have increased by at least +10% since their 4H RSI Lows, we are targeting $84.40, which is the Resistance 1 level, exactly on the +10% mark.
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Brent - Peace returned to the Middle East?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $80 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward.
Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $80 per barrel. This price increase continues to be supported by declining U.S. crude oil inventories and uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supplies following new U.S. sanctions.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the latest U.S. sanctions have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s energy exports. These sanctions have blacklisted over one-fifth of the tanker fleet transporting Russian oil. Last week, 160 sanctioned tankers transported over 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2024, accounting for approximately 22% of the country’s maritime exports. However, the IEA has maintained its current outlook on Russia’s oil supply and will update it based on future developments.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, though Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office stated that details are yet to be finalized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for his role in the Gaza agreement and announced plans to meet him in Washington soon. Netanyahu also expressed gratitude to U.S. President Joe Biden for aiding in the hostage agreement. A senior Hamas official confirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire proposed by mediators.
In the oil market, attention remains focused on uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supply after the announcement of stricter U.S. sanctions. Additionally, declining U.S. crude oil inventories provide further support for prices. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.96 million barrels last week to under 413 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2022. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in crude oil imports by 304,000 barrels per day and an increase in exports by 1 million barrels per day. In refined products, despite a 1.6% drop in refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 5.85 million barrels and 3.08 million barrels, respectively.
The Colonial Pipeline, which transports about 1.5 million barrels per day of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast, is expected to remain closed until Friday following a leak earlier this week. This has provided limited upward support to gasoline prices.
The IEA and OPEC have both released their monthly oil market reports. The IEA warned that new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could lead to supply disruptions. Additionally, the agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward due to colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The IEA estimates that global oil demand in 2024 will increase by 940,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous estimate. For 2025, demand is expected to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day.
OPEC, in its monthly report, maintained its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.45 million barrels per day. For 2026, the group’s initial forecast predicts an increase of 1.43 million barrels per day. OPEC also kept its 2025 supply growth estimate for non-OPEC+ countries unchanged at 1.11 million barrels per day and expects a similar increase for 2026. OPEC’s production in December rose slightly to 26.74 million barrels per day, while overall OPEC+ output fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 40.65 million barrels per day due to reduced production in Kazakhstan. OPEC data indicates that demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 will reach 42.5 million barrels per day and rise to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2026.
Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani told Reuters that Iraq plans to sign a major oil and gas deal in Kirkuk with BP by early February. He noted that this deal will surpass the scale of the major 2023 agreement with TotalEnergies.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ closed lower, facing resistance near the 20-day moving average. It struggled at the midpoint of the long bearish candle formed on January 7 (21570), which coincides with the upper trendline resistance originating from the December 16, 2023 high (22450). The market's direction—whether it breaks above the upper trendline resistance around 21500 or reverts to the center of the downtrend—remains to be seen.
On the weekly chart, a sell signal has been triggered. On the daily chart, the significant gap between the MACD and signal line suggests a higher likelihood of continued downside. However, after consolidating around the center of Wednesday's large bullish candle, the market may trade sideways for a few days before determining its next direction.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line are above the zero line. After consolidating in a box range, the market may see a bullish third wave supported by the MACD holding above the signal line. Alternatively, a dead cross could form, signaling a shift to bearish momentum. For today, a range-bound strategy focusing on selling at highs and buying at lows is appropriate. Note that Fridays can often bring choppy price action.
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance at the upper monthly boundary. On the daily chart, the significant gap between the price and moving averages increases the risk of pursuing long positions at higher levels. If oil breaks below the 5-day moving average, the 10-day moving average or the $74–$75 range could act as support. A pullback to these levels would provide an opportunity for buying on dips.
The recent month-long rally has caused the MACD and signal line to diverge significantly above the zero line, supporting a buy-on-dip strategy during corrections. However, as mentioned previously, a sell signal has appeared on the 240-minute chart, along with MACD divergence, suggesting a higher probability of additional downside. The recent $79 rally could represent the head of a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder acting as resistance upon a rebound. Below $76, strong support exists, so box-range trading near critical levels is recommended.
GOLD
Gold closed higher, supported by declining Treasury yields. The daily chart confirms a fully established uptrend, making it advantageous to focus on buying during pullbacks. Treasury yields, which have been inversely correlated with gold, are also showing sell signals, suggesting further downside in yields and strength in gold.
If gold breaks above the 2755 level, it could test the weekly chart resistance at 2788. However, resistance at this level may prevent the weekly MACD from forming a golden cross, leading to a consolidation phase over the next few weeks. On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum suggests a bullish third wave that could replicate the prior move from 2625 to 2735. With the clear daily trend and one-way price action, this is a favorable period for swing trading to maximize profits. Traders should consider this an opportunity to grow their accounts.
This week included major events like the CPI report. Next Monday, Donald Trump will officially be inaugurated as U.S. President. Given past market volatility during Trump's presidency, expect heightened price swings ahead. Always adhere to stop-loss levels and manage risks diligently. Wrap up the week well, and best of luck in your trading endeavors.
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Range-bound Market
-Buy: 21150 / 21090 / 21020 / 20940
-Sell: 21330 / 21370 / 21420 / 21490
Crude Oil - Bullish Market (March futures)
-Buy: 77.50 / 77.00 / 76.20 / 75.70 / 74.90
-Sell: 78.55 / 79.00 / 79.35 / 80.30
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy: 2738 / 2729 / 2722 / 2715 / 2700
-Sell: 2757 / 2765 / 2772 / 2780 / 2788
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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OUR TRADE TODAY ON USOILMy clients and I today too 2 trades, one on Oil and the other one on Nasdaq, we entered after that the market gave us a reversal point to target the liquidity level, which the market filled later in the day.
I didn't post it since we had to focus on recovering the losses silently, since we did, I'll be reposting again.
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Could the price drop from here?USO/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 79.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 80.50
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 77.49
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.WTI Crude Oil is neutralizing the previously overbought 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.520, MACD = 2.080, ADX = 64.888) as after crossing over the R1 level, it is pulling back under it. Technically this has been mirroring the March-August 2023 fractal and based on that, we should see this pull back almost reach the 1D MA50. A buy opportunity is waiting there and our target is the 1.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 86.00).
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USOIL Will Fall! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 79.103.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 74.465 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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8 Tips to Optimize Your Tradingview for Clarity & PerformanceIn this video I share 8 ways to optimize your Tradingview for improve your performance.
Most people focus on strategy, but that is only a piece of successful trading. What I would argue is even more important....is your ability to execute.
Better execution is a result of - repetition, clarity, understanding
The things in this video will help you with clarity.
People make the comparison to trading and gambling all the time, for good reason.
But let me ask you this...
Have you ever taken a moment to look at your tradingview workspace and see how it's like walking through a virtual casino?
Think about it...
You have thousands of assets to choose from (machines & tables)
You have people with their ideas and chatter (forums, ideas, chats)
You also have sounds and stimulation everywhere (notifications, alarms)
This is not bad! But it's something to be mindful of as you design your work environment for execution.
We want to improve clarity, and simplicity. We want to eliminate as much noise as possible to improve your ability to focus on the task at hand, which is to execute your strategy.
Here are 8 tips to improve your performance:
(yes some of these are generic but they make a huge difference)
Turn off the Gain%, Change, Vol, and Last on your asset sidebar
On the same side bar, drag the news section down to the bottom so it's not visible anymore
Change the color of your candles to soft more soothing colors ( google search calming colors )
Turn off notifications so you don't get hit with other trader's ideas while you're trading
Use anchor text notes to put your plan for each asset right on the chart so you don't deviate
Remove news event from the bottom of your charts, reduces clutter (personal preference)
Create templates for each step in your analysis process
I realize now that there were only 7 not 8, but I recorded the video so it's too late to go back now lol.
I hope this helps you on your journey!
I'd love to know what helps you with clarity, and getting in flow state while you trade.
👇 Share in the comments below
-Gio
Crude OIL Follow the plan Oil is one of the main tools that pressure the global economy. This tool is manually controlled; I will not repeat who owns it.
For the last 10 years, I have seen this pattern very often when we see a triangle that breaks down, but before it collects liquidity from above and breaks the upper resistance
I talked about it in a previous post
The idea is still the same; the timings are stretched longer.
I intend to pick up a historical start this year, most likely at the end of the year.
That's my lazy plan.
The realization is more complicated because opening a position at the ideal entry point will be challenging. All shorts will be liquidated and stop out for a long time, so we will probably have to stand in the reversal formation phase for a long time.
I could go on and on about politics and how it's explained to you on TV. But I don't do that.
Best regards EXCAVO