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Crude Oil WTI

Waiting for WTI rebound. H4 30.08.2024 Waiting for WTI rebound Oil WTI has been flattening with pullbacks all week, which is exhausting. My top-up was knocked out together with the rest of the last buy. Although the total plus came out due to partial fixation. Now the price is back to the key support area, it went down to the buyers' zone 73.34-72.63 and near the specified 1/2 margin. There are no large volumes, which is confusing, but they can make a buyback. Therefore, you should look here for confirmations on your strategy. If pushed the zones below, then the price will go to 71.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by KovachTrader
USOIL What Next? BUY! My dear friends, USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 74.21 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 75.14 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
2
Managing Oil Price Uncertainty with Micro WTI StraddlesYou cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for it. This is even more true for crude oil prices. Forces driving and pulling back oil prices are in full play in parallel at the same time. Oil prices remain at the risk to both the upside and the downside concurrently. Take this week as an example. WTI prices started with a rally extending a three-day uptrend of >7% following Fed’s hint at rate cuts plus heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The rally reversed as tensions eased. Crude oil prices crashed 3.8% over Tuesday & Wednesday on fears of feeble demand. RATE CUTS AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS DRIVE OIL PRICES HIGHER The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signalled that the time to pivot was about now when speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week on 23/Aug. This boosted optimism for oil prices, fuelling a rally reversing a price slump caused by weak Chinese economic data and disappointing US payroll revisions. Chair Powell’s remarks lifted market sentiment, leading to gains in oil prices and the dollar weakening. A feeble dollar makes oil cheaper for non US consumers and can help increase demand pushing up oil prices. Source: CME FedWatch Tool According to CME’s FedWatch tool , there is a 67.5% likelihood of a 25 basis points (“bps”) rate cut and a 32.5% chance of a 50 bps rate reduction at the September FOMC meeting. Sadly, the tensions in the Middle East continue to prevail. Last weekend, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones into Israel, prompting a swift response from Israel's military, which deployed around 100 jets to prevent a larger attack. Adding to these factors are disruptions in oil production in Libya and Colombia. The easing of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel reduced supply fears, with some speculating that Iran might view Hezbollah's missile attacks as sufficient retaliation. Despite easing tensions, supply concerns persist in Libya threatening to reduce oil production by 1.2m bpd. WEAKENING DEMAND AND OVER PRODUCTION COULD PULL OIL PRICES BACK Concerns over weak oil demand from China, a global economic slowdown on the horizon, and elevated Russian crude production is keeping oil prices under check. Russia has exceeded its OPEC+ production targets since March, leading to excess supply that is undermining the impact of OPEC+ production cuts and keeping prices low. Source: OPEC and IEA On Wednesday, the EIA reported a decline of 846,000 barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending 23/Aug, falling short of analyst expectations of a 2.7 million barrel drawdown. The market response to this smaller-than-expected inventory decrease was muted. Demand for crude and gasoline will soften as US summer driving season ends first week of September. Expectations of weaker US gasoline demand and lower refining margins have led several refiners to scale down their operations reducing demand for crude. The largest US refiner, Marathon Petroleum ( NYSE:MPC ), announced that it will reduce its refining capacity to 90% this quarter, the lowest for a Q3 since 2020. PBF Energy ( NYSE:PBF ) will lower its capacity utilization to a three-year low, and Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ) will cut its capacity to a two-year low. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reduced their 2025 Brent crude forecast to USD 77/barrel and USD 75/barrel respectively. Reasons cited for reducing forecasts include weaker Chinese demand, higher inventories, oversupply from OPEC countries, and rising US shale production for the downward revision. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Over the past two weeks, crude oil prices have been volatile for reasons mentioned above. Looking ahead, rate cuts in September, the ongoing crisis in Libya, and reduced US gasoline demand will fuel further uncertainty to oil prices in the near term. This is evident from rising WTI crude oil implied volatility. Earlier on 05/Aug it slid from its YTD high of 44.7 but has started to pick up again. Source: CME CVOL Establishing a directional position amid such uncertain backdrop is rife with risks. Long straddles using Micro WTI Crude Oil Options offer an effective way to capitalize on rising volatility. Straddles are designed to benefit from (a) significant price movements in the underlying asset regardless of the price move and (b) volatility spikes. Sharp oil price moves, and volatility spike are to be expected given the current context. Straddles provides “unlimited” profit potential combined with limited downside risk. A straddle comprises of two trade legs, namely, a long ATM call option combined with a long ATM put option. This paper posits a long straddle on CME Micro WTI options expiring on 17th September. Micro WTI options provide exposure to 100 barrels of WTI crude offering a smaller contract size and lower premium requirements. Based on 30/August market prices, this hypothetical trade set-up uses CME Micro WTI Crude Oil options expiring on 17th September and involves (a) Buying a 76 ATM Call, and (b) Buying a 76 ATM Put. The premiums for each leg and the corresponding option Greeks as shown QuikStrike Strategy Simulator are shown below for ease of reference. The straddle requires USD 1.91 per barrel in premium for the long call and USD 1.8 per barrel for the long put. In aggregate the straddle would cost USD 3.71 a barrel. Each CME Micro WTI Crude Oil option comprises 100 barrels which translates to a premium of USD 371 per lot. When Micro WTI Crude Oil futures trade past break-even points as shown in the chart, this straddle will deliver positive returns. • Lower break-even point: 76 - 3.71 = 72.29 • Upper break-even point: 76 + 3.71 = 79.71 However, at expiry, if Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures prices settle between USD 72.29 and USD 79.71 a barrel, this straddle will incur a maximum loss of USD 3.71/barrel or USD 371/lot. The straddle pay-off are summarized in the table below to augment the above chart, illustrating the potential P/L of this trade at a few settlement prices. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by mintdotfinance
WTI Oil H1 | Potential bearish breakoutWTI oil (USOIL) is looking to make a bearish break below an overlap support and could potentially drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 74.13 (wait for the 30-min candle to close below this level for confirmation). Stop loss is at 75.10 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 72.81 which is a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILShort
by FXCM
USOIL Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 74.743. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 72.884 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
USOIL / UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE - 4H USOIL / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Tendency , prices is under downward pressure , until trading below turning level at 77.73 . Downward Condition : With the price holding steady at the current turning level at 77.73 , it is likely to decline towards the support level of 76.16. If it stabilizes below this level, it could then reach the next target level of 74.77 . Upward Condition : for an upward , a potential is expected if the price breaks the turning level at 77.73, leading to a rise toward the resistance level (1) at 79.93 . For a sustained increase, the price must breaking the resistance level (1) to reach the next resistance at 82.50 . TARGET UPWARD ZONE : RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : 79.93 . RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : 82.50 . TARGET DOWNWARD ZONE : SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : 76.16 . SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : 74.77 . TURNING LEVEL : 77.73 .
TVC:USOILShort
by ArinaKarayi
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST AUG 26 - 30th: S&P NASDAQ GOLD SILVER OILThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast AUG 26-30th. In this video, we will cover: S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:BZ1!
by RT_Money
2
WTI OIL holding the multi-year Support Zone.As mentioned on our last analysis, it is critical for WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) to hold the 1M MA50 (red trend-line) and close the monthly candle (1M) above it. So far it has been holding, the current one is a 1W time-frame chart and as you see even on a weekly basis, all 4 last candles have held the 1M MA50. At the same time though, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is applying selling pressure for the same time period as a Resistance. If this Zone holds, we still expect a strong rally to start and peak above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Our Target Zone is intact at 91.50 - 92.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
1
Will there be a false breakdown WTI ? H4 20.08.2024Will there be a false breakdown WTI ? H4 20.08.2024 Oil is in an interesting situation right now. Initially I was waiting for repositioning to buy, however the price went lower. As a result, I closed my purchases on be and now the question is whether or not there will be a false breakdown of the support zone 71.30-72.40. The poured volume in the margin at 73.50 did not give a buyback reaction, but oil moves very insidiously. It could do a false breakdown and then come back on volumes and form a delayed culmination. In any case, the rebound is somewhere near, so watch carefully.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by KovachTrader
Possible correction WTI. H4 27.08.2024Possible correction WTI Oil has now approached the marginal resistance zone 77.41-77.97, as shown in the previous analysis. Large point volumes have appeared in the zone and may mean fixation of purchases and the beginning of accumulation of corrective sales. The question is whether the pullback will be and how deep it will be. In general, I expect an approach around 1/2 of the margin and then up again from there. That's why yesterday at 77.40 I closed 50% of buys and I'm still in the waiting mode. Oil after filling volumes likes to make gains and then go into a reversal.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by KovachTrader
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Breakout above happened as written in my weekly update. Only looking for longs now. Want 79 and then 80 before I expect a more complex pullback. quote from my weekly update: short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. comment : Bulls just continued on Monday and my 75.1 target was easily passed through. That trade was good for 200+, hope you made some. We are now at a minor bear trend line around 77.6 and I’d be surprised if we can just melt through that as well. The 1h ema was not touched once since Thursday’s US session. Very strong move by the bulls and decent chances we see 79 this morning. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 75 - 79 bull case: Bulls did what I expected in my weekly outlook and their next targets above are 79 and then 80. I do think 80 can happen today or tomorrow. If bulls can break above current August high 78.99, bears will probably step aside enough for 80 to come fast. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears did not want to fight this after their leg down and market move’s freely higher without any fight. News weren’t on their side either yesterday. Where could we expect a bigger pullback? 78 is a big maybe. 79/80 is where I expect it more but do not look for any fades until bears closed a bear below the 1h ema. You would be trying to short a strong bull trend and that’s mostly gambling. Invalidation is above 78. short term: Bullish for 78 and most likely 79/80 as long as we stay above the 1h 20ema. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longing the breakout above 75.1 as I wrote in my weekly update. Was good for 200+.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
USOil WTI Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe current USOil chart exhibits clear signs of price overextension, with the asset pushing into a critical resistance zone. Given this technical setup, a retracement appears probable. My strategy involves seeking a long entry, but only if the price experiences a pullback to the key Fibonacci retracement levels, specifically targeting the 50% to 61.8% zone. It's crucial to contextualize this analysis within the broader macroeconomic landscape. The recent Bank of Japan rate hike has injected significant volatility into global markets. We must anticipate and account for potential continuation of these heightened volatility conditions, as they could materially impact price action and risk management parameters. This technical and fundamental confluence presents a compelling setup, but as always, proper risk management is paramount. Traders should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual risk tolerance before executing any positions. Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to enter any specific trade.
TVC:USOIL
by tradingwithanthony
1
Can USOIL, which has surged due to geopolitical concerns, contin Due to the expanding armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, supply instability has surged in the crude oil market. Oil prices shot up by 3% in a single day due to temporary halts in oil production caused by political risks in Libya. While geopolitical risks have not significantly impacted oil prices in recent weeks, escalating tensions will likely influence future movements. In particular, the suspension of oil production in Libya, a major exporter of about 1 million barrels per day, could substantially impact the oil market. USOIL has experienced a significant surge, breaking through the 76.50 level. Additionally, the EMA21 is about to golden-cross the EMA78, indicating a strong bullish signal. In addition, the formation of a double-bottom pattern clearly shows a positive future price outlook for USOIL. If USOIL continues its current uptrend and breaks the 77.50 resistance, the price may gain upward momentum toward the 79.00 level. Conversely, if USOIL breaks the 75.00 threshold, the price could fall further toward the 74.20 support level.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
USOIL AnalysisOil prices have surged on Monday, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions in Libyan oil production. The recent uptick in violence between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with ongoing drone attacks and bombings, has severely diminished the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire deal, pushing oil prices higher. Adding fuel to the fire, Libya is facing a significant disruption in oil production due to an internal political conflict between rival governments vying for control over the central bank. The sudden halt in production exacerbates supply concerns, contributing to the sharp rise in oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling after a poor performance last week, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's confirmation of an impending interest rate cut in September. However, markets may be overestimating the scale and pace of these cuts, which could have broader implications for the oil market if expectations are not met. Technical Analysis Oil is currently in a strong position at the start of the week. Despite fears of a sell-off from hedge funds, oil prices have rallied, potentially inviting more bullish positioning. The violence in the Middle East raises doubts about the feasibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and any further escalation could drive prices even higher. On the technical front, WTI Crude Oil is trading around $77.07, while Brent Crude is at $80.44. A key resistance level is at $77.65, which aligns with both a descending trendline and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break above this level could see the 100-day SMA at $78.45 act as another potential rejection point. On the downside, support remains at $71.17, the low from August 5, which has provided a base for the current rebound. Should prices fall below $70.00, the next significant support levels to watch are $68.00 and $67.11, the latter being the lowest point from the triple bottom formation seen in June 2023.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOUSD (WTI Crude) strong bullish move likely … week of 26 AugA ‘hammer candle’ is one of my favorites and we can see a nice one in the weekly chart of oil. It also appears at a major support (73.00) and at a rising trend line. If you are not a fan of the hammer candle like I am, just look left on my chart and see what happened in the past when this candle appeared. But “when” to trade is always a question, directional bias is only a part of our decision making. I will, first of all be looking for USD weakness and CAD strength (correlation). Monitoring PA on the H4 and H1 is always a good idea too. Evidence of bullish PA would justify taking a long trade. However, if a move to the downside forms, that would negate my analysis. This is not a trade recommendation. You should be aware that trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose. Please use sound money and risk management, trading without a stop or moving the stop away from price is a recipe for disaster. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Trading_Vista