USOILCrude oil currently has a low opening and low trend in the 4-hour level, and the price has fallen below the short-term moving average. The K-line began to bear the pressure and the short-term moving average maintained a weaker oscillating trend. In the hourly level trend, after the European session, the price fell below the previous terraced support band. In the short-term trend, there is a high probability that there will be room for continued adjustment.
Operational suggestions: short near 63, stop loss 63.7, or long near 61-61.1, stop loss 60.3.
Crude Oil WTI
Crude Oil Stabilizes Above Key Fibonacci LevelFenzoFx—Crude Oil is consolidating after testing $63.9 resistance, trading near $62.23, supported by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
While the bullish trend persists above the 50-period simple moving average, the Stochastic Oscillator shows an oversold condition, hinting at a rebound.
A bullish wave may target $64.00 if Oil holds above $62.00. However, if it dips below this level, momentum could extend down to $60.77, near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 62.01 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 58.60 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 65.63 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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RB - US Gasoline Futures to Decline due to Lower ConsumptionNYMEX: RBOB Gasoline Futures ( NYMEX:RB1! )
WTI crude oil futures declined 13.4% since the beginning of the year. It dropped as much as $20 from the mid-January peak of $80 a barrel, before recovering to $64 last week.
In my commentary on February 11th, “Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil Lower”, I described the main reasons behind the oil market correction:
• US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy by President Trump as “Drill Baby Drill”
• OPEC+ to increase crude oil production, ending its voluntary production cuts
• Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand
First, on March 31st, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) reported that U.S. field production of crude oil reached 13.146 million barrels per day (mb/pd), up 592 mb/pd or +4.7% from the year-ago level. This is the highest January production level since 1920!
Second, on April 3rd, the OPEC+ members met and decided to end the voluntary production cuts, gradually bringing back 2.2 mb/pd additional supply to the oil market.
Third, Reciprocal Tariff has brought the container shipping industry to its knees. MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, which ferry goods for retail giants like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot, have seen sharp declines in booking. The tariff uncertainty caused many importers to cancel their orders. This could cause major consequences.
According to Statista, about 71% of the items sold on Amazon were sourced from China. The procurement for Christmas-season products has already begun. Without a US-China trade deal, US consumers could expect fewer gift options at higher prices. Inflation could rebound sooner, as merchants deplete their inventory and face a supply shortage.
This could hurt gasoline demand. On the one hand, higher shopping costs cut into consumer spending budget; on the other, fewer deals at retailers discourage shoppers from taking a trip.
On April 18th, American Automotive Association (“AAA”) reported that national average price for regular gas was $3.182 per gallon, down 14% from the year-ago level.
On April 19th, RBOB gasoline futures quoted $2.0839 per gallon, up 1.8% year-to-date. This contrasts sharply with the down trends in the spot market and the oil futures market.
The April EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (“STEO”) report states that U.S. retail price for regular gasoline averages $3.10 per gallon in its forecast for this summer (April–September), about 20 cents less than the previous forecast in March. The lower price forecast mostly reflects the expectation of lower crude oil prices. If realized, the forecast gasoline price would be the lowest inflation adjusted summer average price since 2020.
In my opinion, gasoline prices could stay relatively high during the peak summer driving season. After that, Gas prices could turn significantly lower through the end of the year.
Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on April 15th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX RBOB Futures is 418,277 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 52,114 in Long, 36,615 in Short and 47,628 in Spreading positions.
• While they maintain a long-short ratio of 1.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 5,198 (-9%) while increasing short positions by 6,021 (+14%).
• This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on gasoline.
Trade Setup with RBOB Futures
If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures ( CSE:RB ).
RB contracts have a notional value of 42,000 gallons of gasoline oil. With Friday settlement price of $2.0149, each September contract (RBU5) has a notional value of $84,626. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $5,840.
Hypothetically, a trader shorts September RB contract and RBOB prices drop to $1.90. A short futures position would gain $4,826 (= (2.0149 – 1.90) x $42000). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +82.6% (= 4826 / 5840).
The risk of shorting gasoline futures is rising oil and gas prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop-loss at $2.10 when entering the short order at $2.0149. If gasoline price continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $3,574 ( = (2.10 – 2.0149) *42000).
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Concerns about demand limit the upside potentialDriven by the U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports, crude oil rebounded in the short term. OPEC has received updated compensation production reduction plans from eight countries (reducing daily oil production by 305,000 barrels until June 2026), coupled with the U.S. intention to reduce Iran's energy exports to zero. The recent oil price rally is primarily driven by short-term news, reflecting supply disruptions and sentiment repair rather than fundamental improvements.
Although U.S.-Iran sanctions and OPEC quota adjustments may trigger periodic tensions, escalating global trade concerns and institutional downward revisions to demand forecasts will limit the upside of oil price rebounds.
USOIL
buy@62-63
tp:64-65
I hope this strategy will be helpful to you.
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Weekly Market Forecast WTI CRUDE OIL: Bearish! Wait For SellsThis forecast is for the week of April 21 - 25th.
Oil has made a classic bearish impulse down, then a corrective retracement. The natural expectation is another impulse down. The fact that price pulled back into a W -FVG allows for this bearish expectation.
Wait for a bearish break of market structure to confirm a valid sell setup... and trade accordingly. No confirmation, not trade!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
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USOIL: Summary of Last Week'st and Analysis for Next WeekLast week, the crude oil market experienced (violent volatility amid the interplay of multiple factors, including concerns over supply glut, bleak demand prospects, and geopolitics. It fluctuated sharply in the game between "production increase expectations" and "geopolitical risks," but eventually closed higher supported by the escalation of sanctions on Iran and compensatory production cuts by OPEC+. The market saw significant volatility.👉👉👉
Next week, geopolitics will remain a core variable. It is recommended that investors pay close attention to the development of confrontations between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the policy trends of OPEC+. They should flexibly adjust their positions. In terms of operations, short-term trading should mainly focus on range-bound strategies, while in the medium to long term, vigilance is required against the continuous suppression of demand by a global economic recession.
Oil trading strategy:
buy @ 60.90-61.50
sl 59.50
tp 63.20-63.60
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USOIL:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategiesEIA data shows 📊: U.S. gasoline & distillate inventories plunge ⬇️, (👉signals👉)
while the increase in crude oil inventories is lower than market expectations 🤔, which supports the rebound of oil prices 🔼. Meanwhile, influenced by the new round of U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports ⚠️ and some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) committing to cut excessive production 🛢️, oil prices are boosted 💹.
In the short term, the objective trend direction has resumed an upward trajectory 📈, and the bullish momentum is gradually strengthening 💪. If the price stabilizes within the range of 61.50 - 61.80 during the pullback ↘️, one can try to take a long position with a light position 💰. The target prices are between 62.5 and 64🎯.
Trading Strategy:
buy@61.5-61.8
TP:62.5-64
The signals resulted in continuous profits, and accurate signals were shared daily.
👇 signals👇
USOIL: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
USOIL
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell USOIL
Entry - 64.408
Stop - 66.133
Take - 60.964
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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BRIEFING Week #16 : ObservationHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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USOIL: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 64.411 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 63.338..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Short on Oil/Back to 57$ SOONI believe we can continue the retest of previous major support level at 65-66$ and fibonacci 0.618. This major support will be flipped to resistance in my opinion. We can see a significant sell-off back towards the 57$ area and below from this location.
I will be looking to enter a short trade from the 0.618 region/66$ if there is a rejection.
My mid-term/end-of-year prediction for US OIL is between 45-50$ and possibly lower.
If you believe in the fundamentals and idea of this setup, feel free to follow and use it.
Not financial advice.
USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 63.67
Target Level: 56.31
Stop Loss: 68.58
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Crude Oil Holds at Key ResistanceFollowing a sharp rebound from the $55 low—mirroring broader market strength and gains in U.S. indices—oil is now hovering near a key resistance level at $64. Meanwhile, major U.S. indices remain below their respective resistance zones, awaiting confirmation of further uptrends.
A sustained break and hold above $64 could open the door for additional upside toward $66 and $70.
On the downside, if gains fail to hold and prices slip back below $64, support levels to watch are $60, $58, and $55.
A decisive break below $55 may trigger a steeper decline, potentially driving oil prices back toward the $49 per barrel region.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 55.204.Colleagues, I believe that the price will continue its downward movement. At the moment we are observing a combined correction. I expect the completion of wave “Y”. Even if it is already completed, the price is still waiting for a downward correction to the support area of 55.204. Therefore, I think that 55.204 is the 1st minimum target.
There are two possible ways to enter the position:
1) Market entry
2) Pending Limit orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Crude rallies on Trump China trade optimism, WTI test key levelCrude oil prices were already on the ascendency but have just hit fresh highs on the day after the latest Trump remarks:
WILL MAKE GOOD DEAL WITH CHINA
WE WILL HAVE A DEAL WITH CHINA
But...
*TRUMP SAYS HE'S IN 'NO RUSH' TO CLOSE DEALS
Anyway WTI has risen to session highs, now testing a major resistance area around $65 give or take $1. The area is shaded on the chart. If we go above this zone then bullish, else the bears remain in control.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Oil - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermH4 - Strong bearish move.
No opposite signs.
Currently it looks like a pullback is happening.
Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
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XTI/USD "WTI LIGHT CRUDE OIL" Heist Plan (Scalping/Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XTI/USD "WTI LIGHT CRUDE OIL" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk MA Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (64.00) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
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📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (59.00) Day trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 68.70
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
🛢️ XTI/USD "WTI LIGHT CRUDE OIL" Energy Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. ☝☝☝
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⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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April 17, 2025 - Powell, Japan & TrumpHello everyone, it’s April 17, 2025. Yesterday’s U.S. trading was pure market carnage. Semiconductors ( NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:ASML ) were steamrolled as AI chip bans to China kicked in and Trump dropped another tariff bomb, hiking duties to 245%. That wiped $200 billion off Nvidia alone.
In Chicago, Powell stoked the flames, warning tariffs will fuel inflation and choke growth, and insisted he’s in no rush to cut rates. The CME_MINI:NQ1! tumbled 3%, the CME_MINI:SOX1! lost 4.1%, and bond futures plunged.
This morning, U.S. futures are up about 0.75% on headlines that Trump’s talks with Japanese negotiators are “going very well,” sparking rallies across Asia: Nikkei +1%, Hong Kong +2.7%, Shanghai +1%. It seems even a whiff of détente with Japan sends everyone scrambling back into risk assets.
On commodities, BLACKBULL:WTI jumps to $63.35 amid fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC output cuts; OANDA:XAUUSD rockets to $3,352 /oz; INDEX:BTCUSD hovers near $83,500.
Today watch the ECB’s rate cut, Powell’s next speech, Philly Fed and jobless claims before the Good Friday shutdown. With Trump’s erratic tariff theatrics and Powell’s warning of higher inflation and slower growth, volatility is set to reign supreme. Buckle up.