WTI Crude Oil: Trade Idea Context and SetupOur Long trade idea has already reached its target at 5921.75 in ES futures.
If you missed it, here’s a link to our article from the start of the week:
Note that, our entry was at 5861, while our stop was at 5837 in the example trade idea. The maximum low price was 5835.75 during Monday’s overnight session. Our stops could have been filled given this, however, we want to remind traders that these example trade ideas are for educational purposes, they are not a recommendation. Stops are never meant to dictate exact stop prices. Trader’s should place their stops according to their own risk management plan whether that be a mix of fixed dollar amount and market structure or filtering down to execution time frames to place stops per market generated information and structure.
Today’s Trade Idea: WTI Crude Oil
We will analyze the Long trade idea in WTI Crude Oil, providing both context and setup.
Fundamental Analysis Supporting Our Scenario:
Following the reciprocal tariff announcements, WTI Crude Oil fell to its lowest level of 54.48, a price last seen in 2023.
While equity markets have recovered, crude oil remains subdued—widely attributed to concerns over OPEC+ overproduction.
However, as we’ve previously explained, this interpretation is incorrect. The OPEC+ production increases were planned as early as December 2024, and the rollback of voluntary cuts is primarily aimed at meeting domestic demand within OPEC+ countries.
This uptick in consumption also coincides with seasonal demand from summer and the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, with the reversal of China’s escalatory tariffs and newly signed deals in the Middle East, many analysts have revised their GDP and recession forecasts upward.
We believe this improved economic outlook is yet to be priced in by the oil markets.
Technical Analysis Supporting Our Scenario:
From a technical standpoint, there is a significant resistance zone and key Low Volume Node (LVN) stacked just above the 2025 mCVAL and Q2 2025 mCVAH. The March 2025 Low also sits just above this cluster.
Our analysis projects a potential move from these levels up to the next major area of stacked levels:
• AVWAP from 2025 High
• Yearly 2025 VWAP
• 2025 Mid-Range
This sets the stage for a potential long opportunity in WTI Crude Oil as markets begin to price in shifting fundamentals and technical conditions align.
Key Levels:
• 2025 mCVAL: 63.38
• Q2 2025 mCVAH: 63.21
• AVWAP from 2025 Hi: 66.70
• Yearly 2025 VWAP: 67.44
• 2025- Mid Range: 66.52
Example Long Trade Idea: Probing Liquidity
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
• Entry: 63.50
• Stop: 62.90
• Target 1: 64.37
• Target 2: 66.70
• Risk: 120 ticks
• Reward: 407 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4R
Important Notes:
• Note that DOE inventories numbers are scheduled today at 10.30 am ET. Watch your risk amid volatility caused by this economic release.
• These are example trade ideas and not financial advice or recommendations.
• The trade idea considers 2 contracts to calculate risk and reward.
• Traders should conduct independent analysis and ensure proper risk management.
• Stop-loss orders are not guaranteed; slippage may occur, resulting in losses beyond predefined levels.
• AVWAP levels are accurate at the time of posting, they may vary as indicator further calculates prices with new volume and price information.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
VAL: Value Area Low
VAH: Value Area High
VP: Volume Profile
AVP: Anchored Volume Profile
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
AVWAP: Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price
NYMEX:CL1!
Crude Oil WTI
USOIL:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
With the easing of geopolitical tensions and the bearish impact of the US EIA crude oil inventory data, the overall trend of crude oil remains bearish. Technically, focus on the resistance level of 64.5 - 64.0 on the upside and the support level of 60.5 - 60.0 on the downside. In terms of operation, wait for a rebound to go short.
Trading Strategy:
sell@63.5-63
TP:62-61
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TA on WTI Oil - 2025.05.14Quick technical analysis on WTI oil.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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USOIL UPDATEHello friends
Given the recent growth in oil prices, it is natural for the price to correct. Now we have obtained the most important price support areas for you and we have also specified the target. If you are willing to enter the transaction, be sure to observe capital management.
*Trade safely with us*
Crude Oil Going Higher - TA and fundamentals aligneThe 0-5 count is not over yet.
Sudo 4 and 5 are still lurking.
It's good to see how the Medianline-Set cought the Highs of the swings. Likewise we can see the subborn rejection at the Center-Line at P3.
I will not trade CL to the short side, until it's clear that P4 is engraved in this Chart. Until then, I maybe shoot for some intraday or dayli trades in Crude.
Economy Facts that support a rise, up to P4:
Crude oil refineries typically switch to producing more gasoline (fuel for cars) in the spring, particularly around March to April in the United States and other northern hemisphere countries.
Seasonal demand: Warmer months mean more driving and vacation travel, increasing gasoline demand.
Regulatory change: Refineries begin producing summer-grade gasoline, which has lower volatility and is required by environmental regulations (especially in the U.S. under EPA rules).
The switch to summer-grade gasoline must be completed by June 1st for retail and May 1st for terminals and pipelines in the U.S.
In Summary:
- Switch begins: March–April
- Completed by: May (terminals), June (retail)
- This seasonal shift is often called the "refinery maintenance season" or "spring blend switch."
USOIL BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 63.61
Target Level: 55.26
Stop Loss: 69.15
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
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USOIL:The short-term trend direction resumes an upward trend.The short-term trend of USOIL has started to rise again and is currently fluctuating around $63. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, and the objective short-term trend direction has resumed an upward trend. The oil price in the early trading session has declined within a narrow range, forming a secondary rhythm. According to the law of primary and secondary alternation, it is expected that the intraday trend of crude oil will continue to rise slightly.
USOIL
buy@62-62.5
tp:64-64.5
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
USOIL POTENTIAL SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL has been growing recently
And Oil seems locally overbought
So as the pair is approaching a horizontal resistance of 64.82$
Price decline is to be expected
SHORT🔥
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CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?! (VIDEO UPDATE):Oil prices broke down lower in the past few weeks, after a much needed LQ grab, following a 2 year consolidation. We’ve seen a ‘5 Wave Complex Correction’, which should now be followed by price recovery.
Wait for buyers to BREAK ABOVE our ‘buying confirmation’ level, followed a by a retest before buying❗️
WTI OIL Buy and sell levels within its Channel Down.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern on the 1D time-frame. The price is now rising having priced its most recent technical Lower Low. Every Lower High rejection happened either on or above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the current rebound looking similar to September - October 2024, we expect a 0.786 Fib and 1D MA200 test at $68.50 (buy) and then reversal to a minimum -17.30% decline to $57.00 (sell).
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USOILUSOIL is in a correction phase. If the price can stay above 61.5, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying in the red zone.
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WTI Oil H4 | An overlap support at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) could fall towards an overlap support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 60.44 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 57.60 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 63.42 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Crude Oil Dipped: Downtrend Could ResumeFenzoFx—Crude oil has begun consolidating around $63.5, a resistance level aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Selling pressure has resulted in a long-wicked bearish candlestick pattern at this level.
The primary support level stands at $61.45. A break below this threshold could trigger a new bearish wave, potentially driving the price toward the $60.20 support, reinforced by the 50-period simple moving average.
However, the primary trend remains bullish as long as the price holds above the $60.20 support.
USOIL Today's strategyThe short-term trend of USOIL hit a new high, reaching around $63.5 before falling back and adjusting. The oil price broke below the moving average system, and the objective short-term trend direction has entered a transformation. In the MACD indicator, the fast and slow lines crossed below the zero axis, and the bearish momentum is quite strong. It is expected that after the oil price in the day falls back in line with the trend, it will obtain support near 60 and then rebound upwards.
USOIL
sell@62-62.5
tp:61-60.5
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
USOIL | 4H | SWING TRADING Good morning, dear friends
Due to high demand, I’ve prepared a USOIL analysis for you. My target level is set at 63.600.
Once my target is reached, I’ll be sharing updates under this post.
Dear friends, your likes are always my biggest motivation to keep sharing analyses. That’s why I kindly ask each of my followers to show their support—please don’t hold back on the likes.
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Oil Price Reversal? Why I’m Bullish on WTI Right Now! 🛢️ WTI crude oil is showing renewed bullish momentum. This move is backed by a shift in sentiment following the recent U.S.–China tariff truce and positive trade headlines. While OPEC+ supply increases and elevated inventories remain headwinds, surprise U.S. crude draws and strong jet fuel demand are tightening the market. I’m watching the current retrace. As always, keep risk tight—oil can turn fast! 🚀🛢️📈
USOIL:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyToday,we have successfully achieved a target of 120 points. resulted in profits! Check it!👉👉
The alleviation of trade concerns has boosted the demand outlook for crude oil. Moreover, Iran is expected to reduce production in June. In the short term, the price of crude oil is likely to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the changes in global trade sentiment and the actual progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations. In terms of today's trading of crude oil, it is recommended to mainly go long on pullbacks. Pay attention to the resistance level of 64.0-64.5, and the short-term support level of 61.0-60.5 below.
Trading Strategy:
buy@61-61.5
TP:63-64
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Fridays BULL RUN CONTINUATION, Sunday EntryFridays entry at Break of POi(Point of interest) 59.892
Entry 2: Sunday Night 10pm
price retested previous high 61.084
Previous high, turned into new price Low
SetUp: Retest, Break + CLose of 1hr wick (61.281
Entry:
stops below hourly Low (60.970]
TP: 63.135 : filled @ 3am EST London Session Open
+174 pips banked
Crude oil trend todayInternational oil prices continued last week's upward trend. Brent crude oil futures rose 27 cents to $66.06 per barrel; WTI crude oil futures rose 28 cents to $63.5 per barrel. OPEC+ plans to accelerate the pace of production increase from May to June to meet market demand. However, according to market surveys, the production of the organization in April instead saw a slight decline. The expected production increase has, to a certain extent, curbed the room for oil prices to rise. The United States and Iran concluded nuclear negotiations in Oman and plan to continue consultations. If an agreement is reached, the return of Iranian crude oil supply will increase global supply pressure, which may push down oil prices. In addition, data shows that the number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the United States last week dropped to the lowest level since January this year, reflecting that U.S. energy companies remain cautious about the future market. Crude oil showed a volatile upward trend, and the oil price broke through the previous high, reaching the expected price. The oil price has formed a three-wave structure. If the subsequent adjustment does not break through the channel, there is a high probability of a continuation of the bullish trend.
The increase in crude oil has approached the previous wide-range oscillation pressure level. Whether it can break through still requires some tug-of-war. In terms of operation, it is considered to lay out long positions on the pullback as the main strategy, with short selling at highs as a supplementary strategy. Pay attention to the resistance at the range of $63.5-64.5 per barrel, and the support at the range of $62.2-61.1 per barrel.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Crude oil gains could be limited. Here's whyAlong with other risk assets, crude oil has had a positive day, albeit a much quieter one compared to the major indices. It has been held back in part by the dollar also finding good support. So, I think a large part of the rally today in WTI is just a function of the market pricing in higher demand because of lower tariffs. Thus, it is the removal of a bearish factor driving prices higher, which could be factor for a while yet as market finds a new equilibrium. The underlying issue of an oversupplied market is what will ultimately determine oil prices. On that front, you have the OPEC ready to release more withheld supplies as it doesn’t want to lose more market share to non-OPEC producers. Thus, the upside linked to a brighter demand outlook should be capped. So, while I do think prices may rise a little further, I don’t think that we will see significantly higher prices with the current state of supply picture. I wouldn’t be surprised if $70 turns into resistance now on Brent, or if WTI holds this shaded yellow resistance range you can see on this chart around $65 area.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Crude oil trend todayThe US-China trade talks eased concerns about the global economy and energy demand, driving crude oil prices higher. The US added 188,000 barrels last week, the first increase in recent months. Tariff cuts improve the global economy, and there is a risk-seeking sentiment in the market. Crude oil fluctuates in a range, short on highs and long on lows. The upper resistance is 61.80-63.00. The lower support is 61.00-60.00.
USOIL Is Going Down! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 63.388.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 57.927 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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