USOIL / TRADING BELOW SUPPLY ZONE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Prices are currently on a downward trajectory, trading below the identified supply zone at approximately 70.04 and 69.21. The market is now approaching the support level at 67.27. There is a possibility of a brief retest of the supply zone before the price continues its decline towards the next support levels, which are around 66.87 and 65.58.
Conversely, if the price manages to break above the resistance level at 70.04, this would suggest a potential upward movement. In this case, the next target would be the resistance level at 71.54. For a confirmed upward trend, the price would need to break and maintain stability above 71.54. Achieving this could lead to further gains, with the next resistance target being around 74.03.
KEY LEVELS :
Supply Zone: 70.04 , 69.21 .
Resistance Levels : 71.54 , 74.03 .
Support Levels : 67.27 , 66.87, 65.58 .
Crude Oil WTI
WTI continues to be under pressure, notable data this weekTVC:USOIL remains under pressure, after data showed weaker-than-expected US employment data in August, which was mixed with support from OPEC+ oil producers delaying supply increases.
US government data showed job growth in August was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not need to cut interest rates very significant this month.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, less than expected to increase by 160,000. (July's increase was revised down to 89,000, the smallest increase since December 2020).
As for the geopolitical situation, as the Israeli army battles Hamas-led rebels in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, medics said on Saturday that Israel's military assault on Gaza has killed at least at least 61 people in 48 hours.
The warring parties continue to blame each other for the failure of mediators including Qatar, Egypt and the US to broker a ceasefire. The United States is preparing to present a new proposal, but the prospects for a breakthrough appear slim as the differences between the two sides remain wide.
In general, there are still no notable new points regarding the geopolitical situation, so it will have less impact on the market than before.
This week will release OPEC's monthly crude oil market report, EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook report and IEA's monthly crude oil market report, which are the focus of the US oil market. this week and the market will pay special attention to them.
On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL still in a downtrend with technical conditions leaning towards the possibility of a price decrease.
First, the long-term technical trend of WTI crude oil will be noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
Although WTI crude oil stopped falling after reaching the 1% trend-following Fibonacci extension that readers noticed in the previous issue, this is not a trending support so once WTI crude oil Breaking below the 66.96USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci will condition the price to continue falling. The next target level of WTI crude oil will be noticed at 64.55 – 63.66USD.
As long as WTI crude oil remains in the price channel and below the EMA21, it still has a main bearish trend with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 66.96 – 64.55 – 63.66USD
Resistance: 68.84 – 69.77USD
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 70.30 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 72.56 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 67.14 which is a swing-low support level.
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#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Very strong breakout below previous support around 70 and market is on it’s way to test the 2024 low 64.46. Oil has not traded below 63 for more than a year. Bulls are in pain but some pullback is expected next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Not much changed. On the weekly it looks more bearish than it is. Until one side get’s a daily close above or below previous lows/highs, market continues to contract and the breakout is near. Weekly ema is flat as can be. Either scalp to both sides or wait for the breakout. Bears want to get below 70 and bulls want 78 and higher. Odds favor the bulls around 72 to trade back up to at least 76.
comment: Bears did surprise me big time on Monday where they closed below the August low but the bigger surprise was the follow through on Tuesday where they closed below 70. That was the lowest close for 8 months and bears just sold it relentlessly on every small rip. We are now 4% away from the January low and given the strong selling on much higher volume, we will likely test below 65$ next week. All pullbacks last week were mostly sideways and every time market got near or touched the 4h 20ema, it sold off big time. Any pullback the bulls get, bears will probably continue and try to keep 70 resistance. Selling 67.67 is probably not a good idea so I what for Monday and if we can get near the 4h ema again and there I’d look for weakness.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 60-72
bull case: Bulls are really trying if you look at the 1h chart but every rip bigger than 100 ticks is sold heavily by huge bear bars. Right now at 67.67 I don’t think we are at a bigger support level where bulls want to fight this. Could happen on Monday but I think many more bulls wait for 65 to be hit before longing this. First objective for the bulls is to make the market go sideways and then get a 4h bar close above the ema. Anything above 71 would surprise me.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears broke strongly below very big previous support and trying to test the 2024 at 64.46. They are in total control of the market until bulls can close a bull bar above the 4h ema. So we have a clear target with 65 or even 64.46 and a clear invalidation level of the max bearishness with the 4h ema.
Invalidation is above 70.32
outlook last week:
short term : Bullish above 75, bearish below 73. Bulls want 77 and bears want 72 or lower.
→ Last Sunday we traded 73.55 and now we are at 67.67. Clear levels given, hope you took shorts below 73.
short term: Full bear mode but a pullback is expected. Good r:r shorts are to be found around 69-70. Above 70.32 we will see a more complex pullback and I’d be out of shorts and wait.
medium-long term: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines
USOIL - at his most expensive region ? holding or not??#USOIL - perfect move as per our last couple of ideas.
now market at his one of the most expensive region of month that is around 66.30 to 67.20
keep close that region because if market hold it then you can see a bounce from here otherwise below that you will see a smooth drop towards his next supporting areas.
dont be lazy here.
good luck
trade wisely
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 9-13th: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 9 - 13th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
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CRUDE OIL Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL keeps falling
And Oil is locally oversold
So as it is retesting a strong
Horizontal support level of 66.74$
I will be expecting a local bullish correction
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
USOIL What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USOIL is below:
The market is trading on 68.08 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 70.57
Recommended Stop Loss - 66.61
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
WTI Poised for a Rally? Key Support Hold Could Send Prices SkywaThe chart indicates that WTI is approaching a critical support zone between $67.60 and $69.40, a level previously tested and held.
After forming a consolidation pattern, the price is likely to break upward, heading toward the next resistance at $72.50 and potentially extending to $76.00 if momentum builds.
A bullish move would be supported by the price remaining above the $69.40 area, indicating strong demand at these levels.
However, if this support breaks, there could be a further downward move towards $67.60.
The target zones to watch on the upside are $72.50 and $76.00, with significant resistance around those levels.
USOIL BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is trading in a local downtrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 1D timeframe the pair is going down too. The pair is oversold because the price is close to the lower band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to buy the pair with the lower BB line acting as support. The next target is 78.60 area.
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CRUDE OIL SWING LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL is about to retest a key structure level of 66.94$
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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USOIL: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
USOIL
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long USOIL
Entry Point - 68.08
Stop Loss - 66.47
Take Profit - 71.28
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Crude Oil - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
OI Analysis: Generally last few weeks OI has drifted lower while CM's adding to longs - bullish. CM's approaching extreme long positioning, but not quite there yet.
True Seasonal: True seasonal to go up until mid October - bullish.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Front Month Premium - Bullish
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
USOIL: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily USOIL prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 68.90
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Crude OIL $UKOIL Classic patternI've seen this pattern many times over the last 5 years on different instruments, and its working out to over 50%
The essence of this pattern is a classic triangle with horizontal support, most of the participants realize that we will break down, but not everyone believes that we will take liquidity off the top before going down.
An instrument like oil is quite trivial and it can fall without taking liquidity off the top.
But I want to share a few examples of my theory working out, where the upper resistance line is broken before the drop-down
Best regards EXCAVO
Join me in buying USDCHF
Hey Dears
Come with me before it's too late
One of the important resistances has been broken, which I showed with a dotted line.
There is another resistance that I have shown as a dotted line, but it seems that the candles will reach the goal I specified.
what do you think mate?
If you like my analysis, support me
How to Use Intermarket Analysis? - Crude Oil Potential DirectionAn example of Crude Oil and Palm Oil in my intermarket analysis to demonstrate how I identify potential upcoming trends and why I believe both are about to move.
To help narrow down potential opportunities in other markets, you can apply the techniques I am about to share.
Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
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USOIL / TRADING ABOVE DEMAND ZONE IN THE DAILY CHART - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELO TRADERS
The overall trend is uptrend , until trading above demand zone in the daily chart .
Current Position Prices are above the demand zone, which is a strong support area. This indicates that the current support level is holding and may lead to a price increase , For an uptrend to be confirmed, prices need to break and stabilize above turning level at 71.82 . Successfully doing so suggests that the bullish momentum is strong enough to push prices towards the next resistance levels at 74.24 and then 76.21.
If prices fall below 71.82 and stabilize, it indicates that the support level is no longer effective, potentially leading to a decline , If prices reach 69.18 and a 4-hour or 1-hour candle closes below this level, it suggests a continuation of the downtrend. A further break and stabilization below 68.28 would confirm a sustained bearish trend, indicating further price decreases.
KEY LEVELS :
TURNING LEVEL : 71.82 .
RESISTANCE LEVELS : 74.24 , 76.21 .
SUPPORT LEVELS : 69.18 , 68.28 .
USOIL BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the USOIL pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 73.19 level.
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