Today and Weekly Outlook for Nasdaq, Crude Oil, and Gold FuturesNasdaq Analysis
Yesterday, Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. It formed a double bottom near the 21,000 level and rebounded, entering a consolidation range near the moving averages. The MACD remains above the zero line, and the Signal line is also above the zero line, suggesting the potential for another upward attempt this week. However, due to the significant gap between the MACD and Signal lines, there is a high possibility of a failed buy attempt followed by a downward move. If the MACD shifts downward, a break below the 60-day moving average could occur.
On the weekly chart, no sell signal has emerged yet, but the MACD and Signal lines are closely aligned. This week may determine whether the weekly chart enters a third wave of buying or declines into a death cross. The 240-minute chart currently shows a buy signal, indicating that the market may focus on buying at the start of the week, with a potential shift to selling later in the week as the MACD leans bearish and a third wave of selling emerges on the 240-minute chart. It is advisable to consider support and resistance levels based on daily moving averages and respond to key levels in the longer-term range.
Crude Oil Analysis
Yesterday, crude oil continued its strong upward trend and closed higher. The price has posted five consecutive bullish candles, with the short-term peak near $74 serving as a resistance zone. A pullback to the 5-day moving average should not be ruled out. On the weekly chart, crude oil formed a large bullish candle, breaking through major resistance levels like the 60-week and 120-week moving averages in one move. Buying near the 72.80 level, which corresponds to the 3-week moving average, is favorable during pullbacks, and maintaining support at the midpoint of the weekly bullish candle will be crucial.
The 240-minute chart also reflects strong buying momentum. Above $74, a short-term sell with stop-loss protection is advisable, while aggressive buying during pullbacks below the 5-day moving average on the daily chart is favorable. This is a typical pattern transitioning from bearish alignment to bullish alignment, so caution is advised when considering selling.
Gold Analysis
Gold closed lower yesterday with a bearish candle. Combining Thursday and Friday’s candlesticks, a doji pattern emerges. If gold fails to break above the 60-day moving average on the daily chart and tilts downward, the key support level at 2600 will be critical. On the weekly chart, the sell signal remains intact, with strong resistance around the 10-week and 20-week moving averages. If gold cannot strongly break through this resistance, a pullback should be anticipated. Although the daily chart confirms a buy signal, the movement lacks significant momentum, leaving room for a swift erasure of the buy signal and a shift to selling this week.
On the 240-minute chart, gold is facing resistance at key support/resistance levels. While the pattern can be viewed as a range-bound box, a sell signal on the 240-minute chart could lead to strong selling momentum following a false breakout. Adopting a range-bound strategy with a focus on selling is advantageous.
This Week's Outlook
This week, major events such as CES 2025, the release of FOMC minutes, and the Nonfarm Payroll report are on the agenda. Additionally, next week’s CPI is within view. Be cautious around key events and data release times to manage risks effectively. Wishing you a successful trading week!
Crude Oil WTI
Crude Opportunity Part 1Previously, heads up about BTCUSD and it was pretty spot-on.
Oddly enough, CRUDE OIL CL1! is next.
For the first part, here we look at the marked time lines, and the effect after these time lines. 5 of the last 6 times, saw a bullish rally. Of these, 4 of the 5 occasions had the Rate of VolDiv (custom indicator) trend changed for an uptick.
In essence, the current weekly Crude Oil Futures CL1! show a similar set up ready for a spike and rally for Crude Oil. No fundamental reason (yet) but the technicals are projecting a billish scenario based on the technical set up.
Part 2 will look more in-depth and zoom into the recent time frame...
Stay tuned if you are keen...
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to overlap supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 72.65 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 71.10 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 75.13 which is a pullback resistance.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Bullish Signal
Crude Oil was in a deep consolidation since October.
The market was stuck within a huge horizontal range on a daily.
With the market opening after holidays, Oil looks strongly bullish.
A breakout of a resistance line of the range, indicates the completion
of a bullish accumulation.
It opens a potential for more growth.
Next resistance on focus is 75.55
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Possible strong trend change in oilOil is at a critical chart crossroads with the Light Crude Oil contract flirting with an upward break of the strong long-term downtrend line “K” that has been passing through the $73 area in the last two sessions. On Friday morning when the article was written, the contract was trading at $72.90.
A possible now confirmed upward break of this line will make it difficult for the contract’s sellers as it will have the power to open the way to $76. Above that, the price of $80 per barrel will “flash”.
On the other hand, however, the apparent inability of oil to pass above $73 and the “K” will mark a third consecutive exhaustion peak, pushing the contract back below $69.
It is of course best not to attempt to push oil prices above $76 because it will begin to "undo" the positive scenario of further weakening inflation.
USOIL PredictionWelcome to our trading analysis! It’s great to see dedicated traders like you pursuing success with focus and determination. Trading is not just about profits—it’s about learning, adapting, and growing with every market movement. Today, we’re analyzing USOIL, which is currently trading at $74, with a bullish target of $100. The market is forming a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish setup signaling a potential upward breakout. Before the price reaches the target, it needs to confirm a breakout from this wedge, which will mark the beginning of a strong rally. This pattern indicates a high reward-to-risk opportunity for traders who patiently wait for the breakout confirmation. Watch for strong volume and momentum during the breakout phase, as these are critical indicators of strength. Stay focused, trust your analysis, and remember that consistency and discipline are the keys to long-term trading success.
Weekly Market Forecast Jan 6, 2025This is an outlook for the week of Jan 6-10th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices look set to move higher, with the possible exception of the DOW.
The metals will underperform against a strong USD, which remains so in the near term.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
WTI - 2025 Q1 Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas!💡 Midterm forecast: (Daily Time-frame)
While the price is above the support 64.00, resumption of uptrend is expected.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 66.51 on 11/18/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 75.44 and maximum to Major Resistance (77.92) is expected.
Take Profits:
68.80
72.27
75.44
77.92
80.10
83.96
87.00
93.80
100.80
109.19
126.35
💡 Short Term forecast: (H4 Time-frame):
The bullish wave is expected to continue as long as the price is above the strong Support at 70.53
Forecast:
1- Correction wave toward the Buy Zone
2- Another Upward Impulse wave toward Higher TPs
SL: Below 70.53
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Oil Bulls Go for the Break into Yearly OpenOil prices are threatening a major breakout here after clearing resistance yesterday at the objective 2024 yearly open near 72.14 .
The focus is on todays close with respect to the 61.8% retracement at 73.90 . A daily close above would keep the focus on a possible rally towrads the 78.6% retracement at 75.89 and the October high-close at 77.25 - note the highlighted slope confluence (look for a larger reaction there IF reached).
Initial support back at 72.14 with bullish invalidation now raised to 71.02 .
MB
Will Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Redefine Global Energy Markets?In a world where geopolitical tensions and energy markets dance an intricate waltz, the latest developments surrounding Iran's nuclear program have emerged as a pivotal factor in global oil dynamics. The Biden administration's deliberation of military options against Iranian atomic facilities has introduced a new variable into the complex equation of international energy markets, forcing investors and analysts to reassess their traditional market models.
The strategic significance of the Middle East's oil infrastructure, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, hangs in delicate balance as diplomatic chess moves unfold. With approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply flowing through this crucial chokepoint, the stakes extend far beyond regional politics, touching every corner of the global economy. Market participants have begun incorporating these heightened risks into their pricing models, reflecting a new reality where geopolitical considerations carry as much weight as traditional supply and demand metrics.
The energy sector stands at a crossroads where strategic petroleum reserves, investment strategies, and risk management protocols face unprecedented challenges. Portfolio managers and energy traders must navigate this complex landscape while balancing short-term volatility against long-term strategic positioning. As the situation continues to evolve, the global oil market serves as a mirror reflecting the broader implications of international security dynamics, challenging conventional wisdom about energy market fundamentals and forcing a reevaluation of traditional risk assessment models.
USOIL Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 72.837.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 68.454.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Brent - good start of oil in the new year!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $75 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward.
Over the past three months, the Brent crude oil market has emerged as the largest commodity market in the world, with a daily trading volume of $75.2 billion. The credit rating agency Fitch has stated that geopolitical tensions may increase volatility in the global oil and gas sector. The agency expects global oil demand in 2025 to grow at a similar pace to 2024, although this growth is likely to be slower than in 2022 and 2023.
President Joe Biden is reportedly planning to impose a 20-year ban on leasing public lands for oil and gas exploration in Nevada. According to Fox News, this move is being considered in the final weeks of Biden’s presidency, just ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. This prohibition would prevent companies from leasing federal lands in the region for oil and gas exploration or extraction activities.
As reported by Axios, Biden has been reviewing potential options for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This action would only be considered if Iran takes significant steps toward building nuclear weapons before January 20. Reports indicate that Iran has enriched uranium to 60%, which is close to the 90% threshold required for weapons-grade material. Additionally, advancements in Iran’s centrifuge technology suggest the country could achieve this level within a matter of days.
However, reports also caution that developing a nuclear warhead would still require at least one year. These assessments come as Biden approaches the end of his term and Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency.
Trump’s approach to Iran and its nuclear program is a topic of great interest, given his record during his first term. Previously, Trump adopted a “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran and withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The question now arises whether he will pursue a similar course of action or take a different approach in his new administration.
CL - Crude Oil confirmation and unwritten potentialHi guys, we are following up with probably one of our favourite assets to participate in. You guessed it right it's CL. Currently the Crude Oil is sitting in a very specific range , which has been traded since late August , until the end of October where we saw a big spike and got out of boundaries due to the escalation in Iran and Israel, of which after the cooling off we got back into the range of 73.00 as a strong resistance line , and 67.00 as a strong support. This range has made a lot of traders stay away from CL, but I do believe that there is potential to be caught.
Current analysis and entry :
Entry today at a level of 68.90 , with two targets of take profit :
Target 1: 71.52
Target 2: 72.92
Now this is the bold move if you don't want to miss out on the current opportunity and your Risk Tolerance is on the higher end.
If you want to be more protective and your Risk Tolerance is on the lower side, you can get a Pending Order at the level of 66.61 , and then enter 3 follow up targets
Target 1: 68.50
Target 2: 71.05
Target 3: 72.45
P.S. My current opinion is to go with a current entry because the missing out of opportunity is too high ,hence we are seeing more tensions in Israel&Gaza conflict, additionally the tightening of the situation in Ukraine&Russia adds more Fundamental Value, towards a swing on an upside of the Crude Oil.
Do let me know in the comments below or in my community what is your thought process and opinion about our favourite Black Gold!
Happy Trading!