What Is the Base Price or Long-term Support for Crude Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well.
I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume.
The cost of goods varies between producers and merchants, and then from merchants to end consumers. However, it all starts with the producer. Before a producer acquires oil for refining, they reference crude oil prices as a benchmark to decide whether to make a purchase or hold back.
So, “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
As we can see from the yearly chart, in every few years the base price of crude oil keeps adjusting higher; in levels and stages.
There is also this parallel channel formed by joining across its troughs and mirror it to its prominent resistance, we can observe crude oil prices range bound between this broad uptrend over time.
We can try to apply this analysis to other commodities; we will find a similar broad uptrend across most of them. But why? Because of inflation.
Regarding the bottom-line support for crude oil, we observed that it was at $10 from the 1980s until the turn of the millennium. Over time, accounting for inflation, this support level shifted upward to around $30 from the early 2000s until 2020, the year of COVID-19. And now we can see there is a new support at $60 since the start of 2020.
How to explain this break below $30 base price and went to -$40?
In technical analysis, this break is considered a false break, because, at the close of that year, on this yearly chart, prices settled above the support line at $30.
The story behind this is that when COVID hit, airlines were grounded, leading to storage issues for large quantities of oil. It cost more to store the oil than its selling price, which caused prices to drop below zero, reaching as low as -$40. But prices ultimately found its equilibrium and settle at a fair value at $48 that year.
Where is the support for crude oil, and what is its current direction?
This was a video analysis on Sep 2024, in this weekly chart, we can see a wedge pattern. Then I believe if the price breaks above this downtrend line, it suggests that we may see higher crude oil prices. And this analysis is taking shape today.
We can see prices initially broke above this trendline, but shortly sink below and broke this support line at $66 to $55. And today we are at $73 after the renewal of the Middle East tension.
How should I interpret the move to the recent low around $55?
I would encourage to always discover the development with different time frame as time progress.
Switching to the yearly chart, we observed that crude oil is still supported above $60 that year.
Please also make a point to adjust this downtrend line from time to time as market dynamic changes.
Watch the full video:
WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
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Crude Oil WTI
WTI Oil H4 | Multi-swing-low support at 61.8% Fibo retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 72.92 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 69.10 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 77.60 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Trump’s “ambiguous” statement, where will oil prices go?
💡Message Strategy
Trump's remarks are repeated, and the geopolitical premium still limits the downward space of oil prices
Trump said that the United States "may or may not" join Israel's actions against Iran. Analysts pointed out that if the United States is officially involved in the conflict, oil prices may rise by $5; if peace talks are launched, they may fall by the same amount.
The geopolitical focus is still on the Strait of Hormuz
Iran produces 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, but more importantly, about 19 million barrels of crude oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of the conflict may threaten the safety of the waterway.
The Fed's policy turn to dovish failed to effectively support oil prices
Although the Fed hinted that it may cut interest rates twice this year, Chairman Powell emphasized that the decision still depends on inflation data, and Trump's upcoming new round of import tariffs may push up prices and limit the boost in oil demand brought about by loose policies.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart level, crude oil prices in the medium term broke through the upper resistance of the range and tested a new high of 75.50. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, and the medium-term objective trend is in the direction.
The current trend is in the upward rhythm of the main trend. The MACD indicator fast and slow lines overlap with the bullish column above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is currently full, and it is expected that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in a wave of rising rhythm.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:73.00-73.50,SL:72.50
The first target is around 75.50
The second target is around 76.50
If the situation in the Middle East escalates, the room for crude oil to rise will be enlarged
Weekly Market Forecast: Wait To Buy S&P, NAS, & OIL!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 22-28th.
The tensions in the Middle East take center stage, as Iran has signaled they are willing to discuss limitations on there Uranium enrichment program. This could allow outflows from safe havens and inflows to risk assets.
Keep and eye on Silver for shorts, in the near term, though.
Let's see if the market tilts its hand early next week. Monday should bring clarity.
Wait for confirmations before entering trades. A break of structure would be ideal! Enter on the pullback to that structure point.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Oil panic buying after Iran Strikes?President Donald Trump has confirmed that the U.S., in coordination with Israel, has conducted three strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Will there be panic buying of WTI and Brent at the open?
In response, Iran’s parliament has approved a proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. The final decision lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
If a blockade is enforced, oil prices could rise sharply. ClearView Energy Partners estimates a short-term closure could add between $8 and $31 per barrel. JP Morgan has suggested that a full-scale conflict and complete shutdown could drive prices to $130.
XTIUSD H4 AnalysisXTIUSD Showing a bearish Flag. If it breaks this zone above, Most probably can fly upto 81.00 and higher. If no, Can rally between 72, 68 or even 66. Trading Analysis from 23-06-25 to 27-06-25. Take your risk under control and wait for market to break support or resistance on smaller time frame. Best of luck everyone and happy trading.🤗
US-Oil will further push upside After Testing TrendlineHello Traders
In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XTIUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Missiles Flying! Buy OIL, GOLD! Sell the Stock Indices!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 22-28th.
This is a revision of the Weekly Forecast I posted yesterday! With the latest US strikes into Iran nuke sites, the fundamentals go from zero to a hundred! Risk on turns immediately to risk off, and gap opens are likely to present themselves.
Look to long the safe havens and short the equities until tensions ease.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Crude Oil Market Trend Forecast for Next WeekThe oil price continued its upward trend this week, despite a brief correction on Friday. As of Friday's Asian session, Brent crude oil futures dropped by $1.57, or 2%, to $77.28 per barrel. However, the cumulative weekly gain reached 3.9%, marking three consecutive weekly increases. Geopolitical risks continued to fuel market sentiment. Oil prices surged nearly 3% on Thursday after Israel bombed Iranian nuclear targets, following Iran's missile strikes on Israel after its earlier missile attack on an Israeli hospital. The focus of the current crude oil market has shifted entirely from supply-demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks. Although Iran's crude oil exports have not been substantially disrupted, investors have started to price in the worst-case scenario. If the situation further deteriorates and affects shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, global energy prices may face a new round of sharp volatility.
In the short term, oil prices still exhibit upward potential, with the current trend maintaining an overall upward trajectory. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines overlap with bullish bars above the zero axis, signaling robust bullish momentum. This suggests that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in an upward rally.
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Trading Strategy:
buy@72.0-72.5
TP:75.0-75.5
USOIL: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 73.969 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
WTI POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on WTI
WTI has been on a strong 2-week rally, following the geopolitical escalation where Israel launched a preemptive attack on Iran. This event sparked a 2% surge, keeping prices hovering around $77 for the past two weeks.
Despite the bullish momentum, I am anticipating a healthy pullback before looking to engage.
My eyes are on two key zones:
- April High Region (Previous resistance turned support)
- 50% Fibonacci Retracement (Measured from recent rally low to high)
🧭 Trading Plan:
1. BUY: is currently the only play, and as I anticipate for a two-level of pullback on the 4H chart.
🟢 Risk-to-Reward:
Targeting 1:3 R/R on either entry.
BRIEFING Week #25 : Heading into Summer ModeHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 73.94
Target Level: 72.14
Stop Loss: 75.12
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
$100 a barrel coming soon for Crude oil futures In this video we focus on the current accumulation in the oil chart and the prospect of higher prices ahead .
I highlight how the respect of the previous quinquennial pivots gave us a 45% move to the upside in the past 8 weeks .
Looking ahead on the monthly timeframe we have the following confluences above the current price of $75 .
Above the current pa we have the point of control at $ 88 and the avwap at $97, if we can reclaim the poc I think we will continue to push up to the fib levels that I have mentioned in the video.
In addition to the above we also have the decennial pivots at $107/$112 alongside the value area high .
All of this validates for me why oil will be pushing back up throughout the course of the year .
Tools used in the video
Tr pocket , pivots , fived range volume profile and fib expansion
Middle East Tension: Read This Before You Trade today⚔️🕊️💣 Middle East Tension: Read This Before Markets close for the Weekend 🌍🔥✌️
Video:
Hey traders,
Today’s landscape is delicate and raw: we stand between a possible US strike on Iran and a chance for leaders to step back from the edge. Many are asking: Should I bet on gold? Should I short the indices? Should I buy oil?
Here’s my honest read, straight from today’s video (which I highly recommend you watch for full context 📺):
👉 Bitcoin (BTC)
Still ranging sideways. The last move hit my resistance zone perfectly. For now, BTC keeps its cool — but watch out: global fear can spark sudden moves, or the opposite, a liquidity crunch.
👉 Gold & Silver
Yes, they’re classic safe havens — but don’t fall for the textbook trap. When true chaos strikes, big players often sell profitable gold positions to cover losses elsewhere. So an initial spike is possible, but deep pockets can reverse it fast. This is why I’m cautious: I do not expect a guaranteed pump on gold or silver.
👉 Crude Oil (WTI)
The chart says it all: any strike in the Middle East fuels oil prices fast. But as I’ve always said — I do not long oil during human tragedy. Ethics over easy pips.
👉 Indices & USDJPY
Gaps are likely. Risk assets may get hammered if bombs fall. If leaders choose dialogue instead, expect a risk-on rebound. The USD stays a wildcard: trust in the US remains, but shocks test that trust.
👉 Airlines Pausing Flights?
Yes — major airlines are avoiding the Gulf. That alone signals how real this risk is.
✅ My plan is clear:
I never short disasters. I never profit from pain. I am LONG on humanity and peace. I’d rather lose a trade than wish for blood in the streets.
I do have some carefully calculated positions open tonight — fully risk-managed and small-sized. If Monday gaps bless me, fine. If peace wins and my trades lose? Even better.
👉 Watch the full video for my live charts, context, and unfiltered thoughts.
This text is just a recap — the full idea is already posted as a video.
Stay sharp. Stay ethical. Protect your capital and your soul — one good trade is never worth your humanity.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Middle East Tension & Markets: My Honest Stance🌍🕊️✌️ Middle East Tension & Markets: My Honest Stance 💣 🔥 🗡️
Hi everyone,
It’s Friday, June 20th — and we face a fragile moment: the uncertainty of possible US military action against Iran. 📉📰✈️
On my charts:
Bitcoin (BTC) reached key resistance and now ranges sideways as we await clarity.
Gold (XAUUSD) remains the classic safe haven — it holds an ascending structure, but profit-taking could trigger dips if markets crash.
Silver (XAGUSD) is similar, yet needs broader industrial strength to outperform gold.
Crude Oil (WTI) could spike dramatically if bombs fall — but I choose not to profit from pain.
USDJPY & USD pairs reflect global trust in the dollar and US stability — I’ll cover this more next week.
My personal stance is simple:
💙 I never short disasters. I never profit from human suffering. I am LONG on humanity and peace. 🕊️✌️🌈
👉 I expect potential market gaps between now and Monday:
✅ Bad news (war) → gold, silver, oil likely pump
✅ Good news (diplomacy) → risk assets rebound, oil stabilizes
I am positioned carefully with small risk and clear stops. My goal: protect my capital, trade my plan, but never bet on pain. If I lose because peace prevails — I win as a human.
Stay safe, trade wisely, and never forget: sometimes the best trade is no trade at all.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
USOIL:Waiting to go long
The impact of the news is still continuing, the situation did not ease in a short period of time, there is still a rise, the above large space to see 76-77, trading ideas on the long space and advantages are greater. Intraday short - term trading to consider low long.
Trading Strategy:
BUY@72.8-73.2
TP: 74.5-75
More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗
Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls After Trump’s DecisionXBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls After Trump’s Decision
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price of Brent crude oil has pulled back from yesterday’s 4.5-month high following a statement from the White House that President Donald Trump will make a decision within the next two weeks on whether the United States will take part in the Israel-Iran conflict.
According to Reuters, the US President is facing backlash from some members of his team over the prospect of launching a strike against Iran, which could drag the US into yet another prolonged war.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
From a technical standpoint, Brent crude oil price is developing within an upward channel (marked in blue), though several bearish signals are appearing on the chart:
→ a bearish gap that formed overnight;
→ a false bullish breakout (indicated by an arrow) above the $76.50 level, drawn from the 13 June high;
→ bearish divergence on the RSI indicator;
→ a break of the recent local ascending trendline (marked in orange).
Given the steep angle of the rising blue channel, it is reasonable to assume that bears may attempt to break through its lower boundary, which is currently acting as support. Whether this scenario materialises in the oil market will largely depend on developments in the Middle East.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Can Crude Oil Spike to 150 USD / bbl ? Scenario Analysis.With Mid East tensions rising and overall unpredictable
situation around Strait of Hormuz, let's review potential
scenarios for the Crude Oil Prices. I've outlined three
scenarios with projected oil prices for each scenario below.
🚨 Market Alert: Israel-Iran Conflict Impact Forecast 📈
🔴 Worst-Case Scenario: Regional War + U.S. Military Involvement
🚢 Oil (Brent): Soars to $150–$200+ if Strait of Hormuz closes
🥇 Gold: Skyrockets to $4,500–$5,000 (safe-haven rush)
₿ Bitcoin: Initial volatility; settles at $80k–$100k
📉 SPX: Crashes to 4,000–4,500
💻 NDX: Drops sharply to 15,000–16,000
🟠 Base-Case Scenario: Protracted Tension, No Major Disruption
🛢 Oil: Stabilizes at elevated $75–$95, occasional spikes
🥇 Gold: Moves higher, trading $3,500–$3,800
₿ Bitcoin: Trades steady, $90k–$110k range
📊 SPX: Pullback moderate, around 5,200–5,500
💻 NDX: Moderately lower, 18,000–19,000 range
🟢 Best-Case Scenario: Diplomatic De-Escalation
🌊 Oil: Eases down to $65–$75
🥇 Gold: Mild decline, holds at $3,300–$3,500
₿ Bitcoin: Positive sentiment, lifts to $100k–$120k
📈 SPX: Slight dip; stays strong near 5,800–6,200
💻 NDX: Minor correction, remains high at 20,000–22,000