Factors supporting WTI crude oil, weekly outlook analysisThis week, the crude oil market, especially WTI crude oil, experienced a series of fluctuations, ultimately ending the weekend trading session with a slight decrease in WTI crude oil futures prices. Despite pressure from a stronger US Dollar, growing US oil demand and falling fuel inventories supported crude markets, while geopolitical tensions added to market uncertainty.
The strength of the US Dollar has had a significant impact on the crude oil market. The dollar hit a seven-week high against major currencies, making dollar-denominated crude more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially curbing oil demand. Global.
However, strong US economic activity, especially business activity hitting a 26-month high in June, has provided some support to oil demand.
WTI crude oil increased 3.23% this week to 80.52 USD/barrel. Brent crude oil increased 2.53% this week to $84.18/barrel.
Supply and demand dynamics:
Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that total petroleum product supply increased significantly last week to 21.1 million barrels per day, indicating that the US oil market is tightening. The arrival of the summer driving season, along with falling inventories, has pushed U.S. gasoline futures higher, reflecting growing demand.
Geopolitical factors:
Geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict between Israel and Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, have added pressure on crude oil markets. These events have raised concerns about supply disruptions, which could pressure oil prices.
General opinion:
Rising oil demand over the summer and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to be key factors that continue to drive crude oil markets, especially WTI crude. In addition, readers also need to pay attention to outstanding developments in the Fed's monetary policy because it will also affect oil prices because crude oil is priced in US Dollars.
Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is gaining important upside potential with an uptrend formed and noticed by the price channel.
On the other hand, WTI crude oil is still stable above the 0.382% Fibonacci level, showing the possibility that it will continue towards the next Fibonacci level at 0.236% in the near future. Along with that is support from the EMA21 moving average.
In the short term, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, above the EMA21, and the RSI has not reached overbought levels, it still has a bullish technical outlook.
Notable levels will be listed again as follows.
Support: 80.04 – 77.70USD
Resistance: 82.94USD
Crude Oil WTI
USOIL BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL downtrend evident from the last 1W red candle makes longs trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 80.33 area still presents a good opportunity for us to buy the pair because the support line is nearby and the BB lower band is close which indicates the oversold state of the USOIL pair.
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Finally time for bullish oil? $USO to $120 then $300+People have been calling for the oil bull market to begin for the past two years and the trade largely hasn't worked as we've gone sideways to down. However, based on the chart, it looks like we're finally ready for a run.
This would also line up with my bearish equity thesis.
Oil looks to have broken out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern and althought it's a diagonal pattern which are less reliable, the indicators that I have seem to support the narrative.
I think there's a possibility that we could see a 4x move over the next year or so.
Let's see how it plays out.
WTI extends rally to form bullish signI think today's big reversal qualifies as a key reversal day on oil. The rally means WTI is forming a three-bar reversal pattern on its daily time frame. Prices have been supported by further sharper-than-expected drop in US oil stocks, suggesting US driving seasons is well and truly underway. A close above the shaded area on the chart in the next couple of days would further boost the appeal of WTI on the long-side. Longer-term, we will need to see a clean breakout from the converging trend lines for prices to establish a clear directional bias.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
US Crude Oil Prices Hover at $82: Bearish Setup in Sight?US crude oil prices continue to fluctuate within a sideways trading range, currently hovering around the $82.00 mark. This consolidation phase has presented an intriguing supply area, suggesting a potential bearish movement in the near term.
In this context, it's essential to consider the positions of various market participants. Commercial traders, who often include producers and large institutions, are maintaining a bearish stance. This bearish sentiment from the commercial side contrasts with the behavior of retail traders, who are currently in buying mode. This divergence between commercial and retail positions can be a significant indicator of potential market direction.
Given the current market conditions, we are monitoring this supply area for a bearish setup. On a daily timeframe, the possible targets for this bearish movement are the next demand areas. These zones represent potential levels where buying interest might re-emerge, providing support to the prices.
While there isn't a strong seasonal trend supporting a bearish continuation, statistical analysis suggests that there could be a bearish impulse lasting until mid-August. This potential decline aligns with historical patterns, even though the current market lacks a definitive seasonal bias for a prolonged bearish trend.
The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions provides a nuanced view of market sentiment. Commercial traders' bearish outlook, combined with the retail traders' bullish stance, creates a dynamic environment that could lead to significant price movements. This scenario highlights the importance of closely monitoring market sentiment and positioning to identify potential trading opportunities.
In conclusion, US crude oil prices remain in a sideways range around $82.00, with an interesting supply area indicating a possible bearish movement. The contrasting positions of commercial and retail traders add complexity to the market outlook. Despite the absence of strong seasonal trends, statistical analysis suggests a potential bearish impulse until mid-August. Traders should remain vigilant and consider these factors when developing their trading strategies in the current market environment.
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USOIL ( BREAKOUT DEMAND ZONE ) (4H)USOIL
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , after breakout demand zone .
TURNING LEVEL : the price of turning level around 76.96 , until the price trading below this level reach a support level (1) , but if the price breaking this level reach resistance level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : this level around 80.49 , for reach this resistance the price it will be breaking turning level .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 82.83 , for reach this level it will be breaking by open 4h or 1h candle above resistance level (1)
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : as long the price trading below turning level reach this level around 75.05.
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : this level around 72.46, for reach this level the price will be breaking by open 1h or 4h candle below support level (1) .
CORRECTIVE : the price may be corrective turning level at 76.96 , before drooping .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 80.49 , 82.83 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 75.05 ,72.46 .
Texas Oil to continue in the downward move at market price?WTI - 24h expiry
Our short term bias remains negative.
Our bespoke support of 77.06 has been clearly broken.
Previous support at 77.50 now becomes resistance.
We look for a temporary move higher.
We look for losses to be extended today.
We look to Sell at 77.50 (stop at 78.30)
Our profit targets will be 75.50 and 75.15
Resistance: 77.13 / 77.50 / 78.00
Support: 76.60 / 75.80 / 75.4
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MarketBreakdown | USDCAD, NZDUSD, CRUDE OIL, DXY
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦
The pair is currently testing a significant daily structure resistance.
The intraday price action looks bearish at the moment.
I think that the pair may start a correctional movement
from the underlined blue area.
2️⃣ #NZDUSD daily time frame 🇳🇿🇺🇸
The market is approaching a significant weekly resistance cluster
that is based on 2 important historic highs.
I think that we may see a correctional movement/pullback soon.
3️⃣ #WTI CRUDE OIL daily time frame 🛢️
Crude Oil updated a low on a daily, violating a key horizontal support.
It confirms the strength of the sellers.
The market may keep trading in a bearish trend within the boundaries of the underlined channel.
4️⃣ DOLLAR INDEX #DXY daily time frame 💵
We see a nice correctional movement after a strong bearish impulse.
The market is currently trading within a bearish flag pattern.
Bearish breakout of the support of the flag will be a strong bearish trend-following signal.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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USOIL / GOT IT, AND STILL RUNNING!!! Technical Analysis: USOIL
Current Outlook:
the price remains bearish zone due to stability bearish volume under 77.94
Bullish Scenario:
The price should stabilize above 77.94 to get 79.49
Bearish Scenario:
As long as trades under 77.44 means will drop to 76.30 and 75.35
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 77.40
- Support Levels: 76.30, 75.35, 72.80
- Resistance Levels: 77.94, 79.49, 80.73
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to move between the support at 75.35 and the resistance at 77.95.
PREVIOUS IDEA:
Turbo Tuesdays ? Crude OilNice ranged day on Monday leading me to think today won't be as expansive.
Nether less I am looking for Bearish movement but I would like some sort of BSL to be taken meaning I am anticipating a retracement come NY open 0830est roughly.
15min FVG and the 2hr -OB are areas if price was to retrace to I would look for shorts.
Targets are bellow the weekly ssl and the eql's.
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at Fibonacci confluenceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 77.35 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 61.8% retracement levels.
Stop loss is at 78.90 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 75.43 which is a pullback support.
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WTI OIL on the 3.5 year Support!WTI Oil (USOIL) is attempting to form yet another bottom below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the ultimate long-term Support since February 2021. As you can see, since May 2023, Oil has been forming Higher Lows just below this level.
Despite the presence of the Lower Highs trend-line since September 25 2023, the pattern shows a break-out above Resistance 1, every time such a low is formed. Our long-term Target remains 90.50 (potential Higher High on an emerging Channel Up).
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Oil prices losing strength due to China's economic slowdown
Oil prices continue to trend downward, as are expectations for increased U.S. oil production and pessimism about the Chinese economy. Expectations are growing that oil prices will gradually fall following reports that new wells will be drilled in US shale fields, and the costs for them will drop significantly by about 10% this year alone. Meanwhile, the economic slowdown in China, the world's largest crude oil importer, is also putting downward pressure on oil prices. China's oil imports in June fell 10.7% amid disappointment that the PBoC's rate cuts were not large enough to boost the Chinese economy.
USOIL (WTI) has been trending downward over the past week, falling to the 75.10 level. After death-crossed, both EMAs rapidly widen the gap and send out a typical bearish signal. If USOIL fails to hold the 75.00 support, where the trend line intersects, the price could fall further to 72.50. Conversely, if USOIL advances toward the 76.80 resistance after recovering EMA21, the price may gain upward momentum toward the 78.20 level.
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Lower low again after market formed a perfect double top with Globex high, which was couple of ticks above Globex open. Market is going down but barely. Bears taking profits at new lows and wait for market to go higher again before they sell it. 1h 20ema is a roller coaster. Need to trade small, have wide stops and wait for decent pullbacks.
current market cycle: trending trading range or broad bear channel, whatever you prefer to call it
key levels: 74 - 78
bull case: Bulls buying new lows and making money. That’s about it. They are too weak to push to make new highs and bears will probably stop at bigger resistance which I think is below 74.
Invalid below 73.
bear case: Bears in control but they are taking profits at new lows and thats why the channel down is so broad and we have two sided trading. Play the bear channel until it’s clearly broken. Do not try to be a rocket scientist here and start with macro schmackro stuff about oil. It’s going down, look for shorts. Be Forest Gump and not Cathie Wood.
Invalid above 78.
short term: Bearish. Play the channel.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
current swing trade: Still short since 82.69.
trade of the day: Selling the double top Globex and EU high at 77.6. Had to get short latest at bar 42 but better 41 since it was also a head & shoulders or the top of the trading range. More than enough reasons to sell.
CRUDE OIL WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL is trading in a
Downtrend and the price
Broke the key horizontal
Level of 76.50$ which is now
A resistance and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bearish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bearish continuation
SHORT🔥
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