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Crude Oil WTI

Oil Prices Plunge Amid Global UncertaintyCurrent Price Movement: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the NYMEX have extended their downside, trading below $78.00. This decline is primarily driven by concerns over China's economic outlook and political uncertainty in the United States. Factors Influencing the Oil Price: China’s Economic Concerns: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) unexpectedly reduced its Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points to 3.35% (one-year) and 3.85% (five-year). This rate cut follows weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 0.7%, below estimates of 1.1% and previous figures of 1.5%. As the world's largest oil importer, China’s economic slowdown raises concerns about future oil demand, exerting downward pressure on prices. Supply Outlook: Morgan Stanley forecasts an increase in oil supply by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025 from OPEC and non-OPEC producers. The anticipated supply growth exceeds demand growth projections, contributing to the easing of tight market fears and further weakening oil prices. US Political Uncertainty: The potential nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic leader and speculation about Donald Trump’s potential victory in the upcoming presidential election have created political uncertainty. Trump’s promise to increase US oil production if elected could lead to a future increase in supply, adding downward pressure on oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged lower amidst this political uncertainty, affecting oil prices inversely. Global Economic Indicators: Preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data from various nations are expected to provide insights into the global demand outlook, which will further influence oil prices. Canadian Dollar (CAD) Dynamics: The USD/CAD pair has risen to near 1.3750, influenced by the sharp correction in oil prices. Canada, being a leading oil supplier to the US, sees its currency affected by oil price movements. The weakening CAD amidst declining oil prices reflects this relationship. Expectations of the Bank of Canada (BoC) cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% due to easing price pressures and a cooling labor market also impact the CAD. US Economic Data: The trajectory of the US Dollar will be influenced by upcoming US economic data, providing clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Political developments, such as the withdrawal of Joe Biden's re-election bid, have added to the uncertainty, impacting the DXY and, consequently, oil prices.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Summary of Bullish Outlook for (WTI) OilSeveral factors are contributing to a bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in the near future: 1. **Rising Global Demand**: As major economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial and transportation activities are increasing, particularly in Asia with significant contributions from China and India. 2. **Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to implement production cuts to stabilize and boost oil prices, preventing significant declines. 3. **Declining Oil Inventories**: Recent reports show a notable decrease in oil inventories in the United States and other countries, indicating higher consumption and demand in the market. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Instability in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa can lead to supply concerns and price increases. 5. **Investment in Alternative Energies**: While the long-term shift to renewable energy sources may reduce oil demand, short-term transitions and policy changes can cause price volatility and increases. ### Conclusion Given these factors, the outlook for WTI oil prices is bullish. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these dynamics to make informed decisions in the oil market.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Cryptowormshot
USDCAD - A MEGA Drop Inbound!Complex is an understatement for USDCAD. As you can see from the chart, we have been meticulous in our analysis. To put it plainly. we are in a major WXY correction (3-3-3). We are in the final stretch of the correction (Wave Y), which appears to be a 535 zigzag. We are currently in subwave 2 and looking for a massive move down to complete the overall WXY correction. Trade Idea: - Watch for subwave 2 to complete - Once at the top of the structure, watch for rejection - Enter when reversal signs appear - Targets: 1.34 (400pips), 1.31 (700pips) Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
by WicktatorFX
5
USOIL What Next? BUY! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on USOIL and concluded the following: The market is trading on 78.58 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 79.96 Safe Stop Loss - 77.69 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
1
USOIL Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 81.01. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 79.89 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
WTI Oil Price Analysis: Market Dynamics and Global ChallengesCurrent Situation: The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has experienced a slight decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar (USD), supported by rising yields. Currently, the price of WTI is around $81.20 per barrel during European hours on Thursday, after gaining ground in the Asian session due to a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil inventories. Supply and Demand: The reduction in US crude oil inventories has been significant. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of 4.87 million barrels for the week ending July 12, a figure much higher than the expected drop of 0.80 million barrels and the previous decrease of 3.443 million barrels. This decline in inventories may suggest robust domestic demand, which can have a positive effect on oil prices. Impact of Monetary Policies: Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates in September could improve economic conditions in the United States. With lower borrowing costs, economic activity could increase, which in turn could support oil demand. Statements by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin indicate a possible rate cut, which could further incentivize oil demand. Market Pressures: Despite some positive signs, the overall decline in commodity demand expectations continues to threaten the energy complex. According to Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TDS, the absence of an increase in supply risk premia could continue to exert downward pressure on prices. However, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) still have substantial resources to deploy in the market, which could limit price declines in the short term, barring a significant downturn. Global Challenges: Another challenge for WTI oil prices is the economic slowdown in China in the second quarter, which reduces demand from the world's largest oil-importing country. Increasing trade tensions, with new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles imposed by the United States and the European Union, contribute to an uncertain global economic outlook, negatively impacting oil demand.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL Will Move Higher! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 81.336. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 82.947 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
WTI OIL Still bearish but watch this level for a reversal.WTI Oil (USOIL) is posting today the 2nd straight green 1D candle following yesterday's EIA report but the short-term pattern remains a (dashed) Channel Down, which keeps the trend bearish. Ever since the July 05 rejection at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Triangle pattern, we've been aiming for a 1W MA200 (red trend-line) contact, similar to the February 05 2024 Low. As long as the 1D RSI remains below its MA trend-line, we will remain bearish, moving however our medium-term Target a bit higher to 78.50. If however the RSI breaks above its MA, we will close the short immediately and buy instead on the bullish break-out, targeting 87.60 (Resistance 2). Keep also an eye on the RSI's Symmetrical Support level (43.35) for a potential reversal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
2
Exploring Bearish Plays w/ Futures, Micros & Options on FutureIntroduction The WTI Crude Oil futures market provides various avenues for traders to profit from bullish and bearish market conditions. This article delves into several bearish strategies using standard WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts, and options on these futures. Whether you are looking to trade outright futures contracts, construct complex spreads, or utilize options strategies, this publication aims to assist you in formulating effective bearish plays while managing risk efficiently. Choosing the Right Contract Size When considering a bearish play on WTI Crude Oil futures, the first decision involves selecting the appropriate contract size. The standard WTI Crude Oil futures and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts offer different levels of exposure and risk. WTI Crude Oil Futures: Standardized contracts linked to WTI Crude Oil with a point value = $1,000 per point. Suitable for traders seeking significant exposure to market movements. Greater potential for profits but also higher risk due to larger contract size. TradingView ticker symbol is CL1! Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $6,000 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions. Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures: Contracts representing one-tenth the value of the standard WTI Crude Oil futures. Each point move in the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures equals $100. Ideal for traders who prefer lower exposure and risk. Allows for more precise risk management and position sizing. TradingView ticker symbol is MCL1! Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for Micro WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $600 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions. Choosing between standard WTI Crude Oil and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures depends on your risk tolerance, account size, and trading strategy. Smaller contracts like the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures offer flexibility, particularly for newer traders or those with smaller accounts. Bearish Futures Strategies Outright Futures Contracts: Selling WTI Crude Oil futures outright is a straightforward way to express a bearish view on the market. This strategy involves selling a futures contract in anticipation of a decline in oil prices. Benefits: Direct exposure to market movements. Simple execution and understanding. Ability to leverage positions due to margin requirements. Risks: Potential for significant losses if the market moves against your position. Mark-to-market losses can trigger margin calls. Example Trade: Sell one WTI Crude Oil futures contract at 81.00. Target price: 76.00. Stop-loss price: 82.50. This trade aims to profit from a 5.00-point decline in oil prices, with a risk of a 1.50-point rise. Futures Spreads: 1. Calendar Spreads: A calendar spread, also known as a time spread, involves selling (or buying) a longer-term futures contract and buying (or selling) a shorter-term futures contract with the same underlying asset. This strategy profits from the difference in price movements between the two contracts. Benefits: Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions. Potential to profit from changes in the futures curve. Risks: Limited profit potential compared to outright positions. Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position. Example Trade: Sell an October WTI Crude Oil futures contract. Buy a September WTI Crude Oil futures contract. Target spread: Decrease in the difference between the two contract prices. In this example, the trader expects the October contract to lose more value relative to the September contract over time. The profit is made if the spread between the December and September contracts widens. 2. Butterfly Spreads: A butterfly spread involves a combination of long and short futures positions at different expiration dates. This strategy profits from minimal price movement around a central expiration date. It is constructed by selling (or buying) a futures contract, buying (or selling) two futures contracts at a nearer expiration date, and selling (or buying) another futures contract at an even nearer expiration date. Benefits: Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions. Profits from stable prices around the middle expiration date. Risks: Limited profit potential compared to other spread strategies or outright positions. Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position. Example Trade: Sell one November WTI Crude Oil futures contract. Buy two October WTI Crude Oil futures contracts. Sell one September WTI Crude Oil futures contract. In this example, the trader expects WTI Crude Oil prices to remain relatively stable. Bearish Options Strategies 1. Long Puts: Buying put options on WTI Crude Oil futures is a classic bearish strategy. It allows traders to benefit from downward price movements while limiting potential losses to the premium paid for the options. Benefits: Limited risk to the premium paid. Potential for significant profit if the underlying futures contract price falls. Leverage, allowing control of a large position with a relatively small investment. Risks: Potential loss of the entire premium if the market does not move as expected. Time decay, where the value of the option decreases as the expiration date approaches. Example Trade: Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures with a strike price of 81.00, expiring in 30 days. Target price: 76.00. Stop-loss: Premium paid (e.g., 2.75 points x $1,000 per contract). If the WTI Crude Oil futures price drops below 81.00, the put option gains value, and the trader can sell it for a profit. If the price stays above 78.25, the trader loses only the premium paid. 2. Synthetic Short: Creating a synthetic short involves buying a put option and selling a call option at the same strike price and expiration. This strategy mimics holding a short position in the underlying futures contract. Benefits: Similar profit potential to shorting the futures contract. Flexibility in managing risk and adjusting positions. Risks: Potential for unlimited losses if the market moves significantly against the position. Requires margin to sell the call option. Example Trade: Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days. Sell one call option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days. Target price: 76.00. The profit and loss (PnL) profile of the synthetic short position would be the same as holding a short position in the underlying futures contract. If the price falls, the position gains value dollar-for-dollar with the underlying futures contract. If the price rises, the position loses value in the same manner. 3. Bearish Options Spreads: Options offer versatility and adaptability, allowing traders to design various bearish spread strategies. These strategies can be customized to specific market conditions, risk tolerances, and trading goals. Popular bearish options spreads include: Vertical Put Spreads Bear Put Spreads Put Debit Spreads Ratio Put Spreads Diagonal Put Spreads Calendar Put Spreads Bearish Butterfly Spreads Bearish Condor Spreads Etc. Example Trade: Bear Put Spread: Buying the 81.00 put and selling the 75.00 put with 30 days to expiration. Risk Profile Graph: This example shows a bear put spread aiming to profit from a decline in WTI Crude Oil prices while limiting potential losses. For detailed explanations and examples of these and other bearish options spread strategies, please refer to our published ideas under the "Options Blueprint Series." These resources provide in-depth analysis and step-by-step guidance. Trading Plan A well-defined trading plan is crucial for successfully executing any strategy. Here’s a step-by-step guide to formulating your plan: 1. Select the Strategy: Choose between outright futures contracts, calendar or butterfly spreads, or options strategies based on your market outlook and risk tolerance. 2. Determine Entry and Exit Points: Entry price: Define the price level at which you will enter the trade (e.g., breakout, UFO resistance, indicators convergence/divergence, etc.). Target price: Set a realistic target based on technical analysis or market projections. Stop-loss price: Establish a stop-loss level to manage risk and limit potential losses. 3. Position Sizing: Calculate the appropriate position size based on your account size and risk tolerance. Ensure that the position aligns with your overall portfolio strategy. 4. Risk Management: Implement risk management techniques such as using stop-loss orders, hedging, and diversifying positions to protect your capital. Risk management is vital in trading to protect your capital and ensure long-term success. Conclusion In this article, we've explored various bearish strategies using WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures, and options on futures. From outright futures contracts to sophisticated spreads and options strategies, traders have multiple tools to capitalize on bearish market conditions while managing their risk effectively. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
USOIL ( BREAKOUT CHANNEL ) ( 4H )USOIL HELLO TRADERS TENDENCY : the price stabilizing below turning level , indicates is under bearish pressure TURNING LEVEL : the price around 81.71 . PRICE MOVEMENT : the price in previously rising an reach a target , but dropping significantly because of the attack on trump . PRICE ACTION : SHORT CONDTION : after the price breaking a channel , price stable bearish zone , currently price 81.14 , price trying to retest before dropping a support level at 80.50 , then breaking this level reach 79.25 . LONG CONDITION : if the price breaking 81.71 by open 4h candle above this level reach a resistance level at 83.57 , then stabilizing above this level reach a 84.97 . TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL :83.57 , 84.97 SUPPORT LEVEL 80.50 , 79.25
TVC:USOILShort
by ArinaKarayi