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Crude Oil WTI

Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend. Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher. US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices. Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories. OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024. The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June. The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend? While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum. A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months. The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services. On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives. The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market. While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
USOIL: Short near 81.and Support 79.5~79.7Crude oil technical analysis Daily resistance 83.4, support below 77.5 Four-hour resistance 81, support below 80-77.5 Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil slightly rose to 81 yesterday, and then fell back and fluctuated sideways under pressure. The overall price support stabilized above the 80 mark, showing a strong bullish oscillation rhythm. The short-term local decline adjustment will not change the overall bullish strength. At the same time, short-term adjustments will provide better opportunities for long orders to enter the market. Today's support is around 79.7-79.5. If it falls back to this position during the day, continue to go long. The upper target continues to focus on the new high. The short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 79 mark. If the daily level stabilizes above this position, continue to go long at a low price. SELL:80.0 near SL:80.40 SELL:81.0 near SL:81.30 SELL:83.4 near SL:83.70 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOT
by ActuaryJ
USOIL: Can crude oil stabilize at the 80 mark?Technical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 83.4, support below 77-75 Four-hour resistance 81, support below 80-79 Operation suggestions for crude oil: The overall technical form of crude oil shows a bullish breakthrough. Today's support below continues to focus on yesterday's hourly neckline near 79.5-79.7. Return to this area during the day to continue to follow the trend and look for a breakthrough. The upper target is still expected to break through. The overall bullish strong dividing line moves up to the 78 mark. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to follow the trend and keep the low-price long rhythm unchanged. (At the same time, beware of sudden trend changes. The technical side also has a warning of a sharp drop and wash) BUY:80.0 near SL:79.70 SELL:81.0 near SL:81.30 SELL:83.4 near SL:83.70 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by ActuaryJ
USOIL H4 | Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 80.73, which is an overlap resistance. Our take profit will be at 78.78, an overlap support level close to 23.6% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 83.56, which is an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by FXCM
WTI OIL Shifted to longterm bullish, but expect correction firstWTI Oil (USOIL) broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and invalidated April's Channel Down. Last time we saw such a Channel Down bullish break-out following a rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was on December 20 2023 and before that on May 17 2023. The common characteristic was that a 1D MACD Bullish Cross accompanied all those break-outs and the last two formed a 1D Death Cross. On both previous occasions, the price pulled back to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, touching the 1W MA50 again. As a result, even though we have confirmed a new long-term uptrend, we will turn bearish on the short-term, expecting a pull-back towards the 0.618 Fib, targeting $76.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
OIL: Operation in the range of 77~80Crude Oil Technical Analysis Daily resistance is 80-83.4, support below is 77-75 Four-hour resistance is 80, support below is 77.8 Crude oil operation advice: Yesterday, crude oil experienced a strong bullish rise around the 77.5 mark. In the Asian and European markets, the price slightly stepped back to test and stabilized at the 77.5 mark, ushering in a rebound. The European market rose slightly and broke through the 78 mark, falling into sideways fluctuations. After the US Bulls continued to work hard during the session, and the hourly line continued to rise and broke through and stood at the 79 mark, and continued to rise to close strongly near the 80 mark. After the overall price fluctuated around the 77 mark for nearly 4 trading days, the bulls broke through. In the short term, the oil price stood above the 79 mark and entered the bullish rebound cycle again. Today's lower support focuses on the neckline of yesterday's hourly line near 78.5-78.7. The intraday retracement relies on this position to continue to be bullish. The upper target continues to focus on breaking highs. The short-term long-short strength and weakness dividing line focuses on the 77 mark. Any retracement before the daily level falls below this position is a long opportunity. BUY: 78.4 near SL: 78.00 BUY: 77.8 near SL: 77.50 SELL: 80.0 near SL: 80.50 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by ActuaryJ
Oil Broader Support Market Optimism, Despite Lingering UncertainOil prices edged higher this week, marking their strongest gain in seven days. This upward momentum came despite a somewhat ambiguous outlook for crude itself, suggesting the driving force behind the rise lies elsewhere: positive sentiment in the broader financial markets. Risk-On Rally Lifts Oil The primary factor behind oil's recent rise is the prevailing "risk-on" sentiment dominating global markets. Equity indices, particularly in the United States, have been scaling new highs, with the S&P 500 reaching its 30th record this year. This optimism seems to be spilling over into the commodities market, including oil. Investors, buoyed by the positive performance in equities, are displaying a greater willingness to take on risk, and oil is seen as a potential beneficiary. OPEC+ Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions Offer Underlying Support Beyond the broader market sentiment, a couple of oil-specific factors are also contributing to the price increase. Firstly, the decision by OPEC+, the world's leading oil producer alliance, to extend production cuts has helped to tighten supply and prop up prices. Anxieties surrounding potential disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East are also lending some support. Mixed Outlook for Crude: Demand Questions Linger However, the outlook for crude remains somewhat clouded by uncertainties. While the supply side appears relatively stable thanks to OPEC+ intervention, demand remains a question mark. Signs of slowing economic growth in some parts of the world, particularly in Asia, raise concerns about future oil consumption. Data from China, a major consumer of oil, recently indicated weaker-than-expected industrial activity, potentially signaling a softening demand outlook. Additionally, rising gasoline prices in some regions, like India, could dampen consumer spending and lead to lower demand for fuel. The Balancing Act: Weighing Optimism Against Uncertainty The current situation presents a complex picture for oil markets. The positive sentiment in broader financial markets is providing a tailwind for oil prices. However, this is counterbalanced by lingering uncertainties about future demand, particularly in Asia. The net effect of these opposing forces will determine the future trajectory of oil prices. Looking Ahead: Navigating a Volatile Market Oil will likely see continued volatility in oil markets. Investors will be closely monitoring key factors like: • Global economic performance: The health of major economies, particularly China, will significantly influence oil demand. • Monetary policy decisions: Actions by central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, could impact risk appetite and indirectly affect oil prices. • Geopolitical developments: Events in major oil-producing regions can disrupt supply and cause price spikes. By carefully weighing these factors, market participants can navigate the current uncertainty and make informed decisions regarding oil investments.
FX:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
WTI stages breakoutCrude oil's rally today underscores its recent resilience. Prices surged despite weaker Chinese industrial data, suggesting investors are expecting the oil market to tighten as we head deeper into the US driving season. Thanks to the rally, WTI has broken its bearish trendline that had been in place since April, finding strong support around $77.80, where the 21-day exponential moving average is present. Today's rally has lifted WTI to its 200-day moving average, just below the $79.50 level. Previously, it had struggled within the $79.50 to $80.00 range. Considering last week's V-shaped recovery and the subsequent break above the bearish trendline, crude oil bulls are now looking for a move above May's high of $80.63. Achieving this would mark the first higher high and confirm a bullish reversal signal for WTI. Conversely, if oil prices turn lower in the coming days and fall back below the breakout area around $77.80, the bearish trend would likely resume, leading to further technical selling. However, the bullish scenario appears more probable to me. Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com Follow me on twitter: x.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Crude oil is trading in a range, with a focus on 73.8~76.5Technical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 78.4, support below 72.7 Four-hour resistance 76, support below 75-73.8 Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil fell first and then rose last week. The weekly line is in a wide range of fluctuations, and there is no strong unilateral trend. In the form of repeated tug-of-war between long and short positions, pay attention to the support of the low point of 73.80 this week. If it holds, it will continue to be bullish. The overall price shows a rhythm of long and short narrow fluctuations. Although the daily level has experienced two consecutive positive fluctuations and rebounded, the overall technical indicators are still in a short position. The upper side is still facing the pressure of the 76.5 mark. Today's rebound relies on the 76.5 line to continue to be short first. The short-term support below focuses on the vicinity of 74.3-74.5. Today, we will rely on this range to maintain the rhythm of fluctuations and sell high and buy low. SELL:76.0 near SL:76.50 BUY:73.8 near SL:73.40 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOT
by ActuaryJ
USOIL Is Bearish! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 78.44. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 76.80 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
Daily Timeframe suggests Bearish Price ActionWe are currently inside a 12$ Range on Crude Oil on the monthly timeframe. Support being 71.32 and resistance being 83.22. After two weeks of trading in June, Oil is up roughly 2/3 of 1 Percent. The First week being quite bearish but which was corrected, plus an additional some to the upside on the second week. Price came awfully close to the weekly resistance level ( about 25 cents) on Wednesday but coincided with US weekly Inventories and dropped on a higher than forecasted number. Weekly Bearish Target for Crude this week I have 75.36 Weekly support level. Weekly Long target for crude this week I have 79.58 Weekly resistance Level. What's interesting is that after the initial climb on last Monday, Crude simply consolidated for the rest of the week. It actually printed 3 Daily candles that had a larger top wick than the body of the candle. My Bias is bearish to kick off the new trading week and short term targets are 77.30 for the upcoming session.
TVC:USOILShort
by ShrewdCatfx