Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. Although a sell signal briefly appeared in the previous session, the MACD failed to form a bearish crossover with the signal line, instead finding support and rebounding. The index strongly bounced from its low, reaching the 5-day moving average (MA) before closing with an upper wick.
Since the MACD is supporting the signal line and potentially resuming an upward trend, the key level to watch is whether the price can break through the strong resistance at 19,625–19,675. As long as the MACD does not confirm a bearish crossover, it is advisable to trade within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the index rebounded from the bottom while generating a buy signal. However, with strong resistance around 19,675, if the price pulls back once more, it could either form a double bottom or resume a strong upward move from a single-bottom structure.
Although the MACD has crossed above the signal line (golden cross) on the 240-minute chart, it is still far from the zero line, suggesting that further pullbacks may occur after additional gains. It is important to avoid chasing the price and instead focus on buying dips at key support levels while maintaining a range-trading approach.
Crude Oil
Oil closed flat, facing resistance at $72. On the daily chart, the price broke above the 240-day MA and is now testing resistance from a previous supply zone. It is likely to consolidate within a range while pulling up the short-term moving averages.
The daily MACD has moved above the zero line, lifting the signal line as well. If the price remains in a range-bound consolidation, the signal line will eventually rise above the zero line, further supporting a bullish structure.
Key upcoming events include today’s oil inventory report and tomorrow’s OPEC meeting, which could act as catalysts for either a continuation of the rally or a pullback. Since there is still a gap between the 3-day and 5-day MAs, range trading remains the best approach.
On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum continues, but given the heavy supply at previous resistance levels, a period of sideways movement or a pullback is likely.
If a bearish crossover occurs on the 240-minute chart, oil could drop below $70. For now, monitor whether the uptrend can hold, and if it does, consider trading within the range while managing downside risks.
Gold
Gold closed lower after an overshoot to the upside. On the daily chart, the price was in an overextended high position, with a significant gap from the 3-day and 5-day MAs. After a brief rally, selling pressure emerged, leading to a bearish close.
Since gold has yet to properly test the 5-day MA, a pullback to this level remains a possibility. However, the daily MACD is still trending upward, and liquidity remains strong, increasing the likelihood of a one-way rally unless the 10-day MA is broken. Short positions should be approached with caution.
On the 240-minute chart, a bearish crossover has occurred, leading to a pullback from the high. However, since the uptrend remains intact, even if the MACD crosses below the signal line, the fact that it is still above the zero line suggests a potential rebound.
The best strategy is to focus on buying dips at key support levels, as the market is likely to consolidate before resuming a trend move. Be cautious when trading within a range-bound market.
With Friday’s U.S. employment report approaching, market volatility remains elevated. Trump’s tariff policies are increasing concerns about inflation and a potential economic slowdown. The interpretation of upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining market direction.
Risk management remains essential, so trade cautiously and stay prepared.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
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