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US Oil SPOT | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe week concluded with crude prices surging by a staggering 7%, leaving investors on edge as the Middle East crisis intensified. Israel's announcement of a ground assault on Gaza propelled the region into a new phase of heightened tensions, further fueling market uncertainty. As we look ahead to the coming week, two pivotal factors will shape the direction of oil markets. Firstly, the extent to which the conflict in the Middle East escalates and its potential impact on oil supplies in the world's leading oil-producing region. Secondly, all eyes will be on the eagerly awaited weekly update on US crude stockpiles, set to be released on Wednesday. Notably, last week witnessed a significant surge in crude stocks, with exports experiencing a sharp decline of nearly 2 million barrels, bringing the daily average to 3.067 million barrels compared to the previous week's 4.956 million barrels. These developments set the stage for a captivating week ahead, filled with anticipation and potential market shifts. Let's explore what lies in store for us in the upcoming week. US Oil Technical Analysis: In this video, we delve deep into the 4-hour timeframe, dissecting key supply and demand zones to uncover invaluable insights into the potential trajectory of price action for USOILSPOT in the week ahead. Join us as we delve into a comprehensive technical analysis of the US oil market, exploring trends, key levels, and chart patterns that hold the key to unlocking profitable opportunities. Don't miss out on this golden opportunity to elevate your understanding of the future path of USOILSPOT. Stay ahead of the curve and gain a distinct competitive edge by immersing yourself in this price-action-based technical analysis. Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
FX:USOILSPOT
by darcsherry
USOIL: Oil today analysis The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated following Hamas attacks on Israel, with oil markets on edge and uncertainty about how things will play out or how far the conflict could spread. In its closely watched oil market report for October, the IEA said: "A sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East is keeping markets on edge. The region accounts for more than a third of global seaborne oil trade. Oil prices surged on Monday after attacks by Hamas against Israel reignited tensions in the Middle East and the war premium reappeared in the market. Crude oil market yesterday morning opened at 83.21 US dollars/barrel, after the market first pulled up, the daily peak reached 85.28 US dollars/barrel, after the market fell strongly, the daily minimum to 82.35 US dollars/barrel Short-term strategy reference: high probability scenario: bearish below 85.6, target 83.2-82.5; Low probability scenario: Bullish above 85.6, target 86.5-87.2
TVC:USOILLong
by HectorBrown1
USOIL: Today's crude oil analysis and operation Crude oil yesterday's typical interval arrangement, the highest 86.7, the lowest 85, the daily line closed small Yin at 85.9, the four-hour chart of the large interval, the top 87 will be an important resistance point in this interval, the lower focus on the 84 break, the breakthrough will fill the gap; From the point of view of the 1-hour line, the lower focus on the 85 support situation, coupled with the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict, may have a certain impact on oil prices, and the day is mainly low and high The specific layout is as follows: (1) below see 85/85.3 long, loss 84.5, target 86.2-86.5 break on the look (2) Above, focus on the breakthrough of 87
TVC:USOILLong
by HectorBrown1
USOIL: Oil today analysis The outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, if more forces are involved in the subsequent, the Middle East oil producers may be directly affected, crude oil production may be in short supply, and oil prices may rise more sharply. In the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine last year, the oil price rose sharply from $90 to the highest price of $130, and it took half a year to return to the $90 line. In summary, the current turmoil in the Middle East has attracted much attention, and the limelight has overshadowed the OPEC+ production cut plan, and the follow-up trend needs to be paid close attention. Crude oil fell sharply to $81.50 last week, the direction of the daily bullish line has not changed, if the resistance level of $89 above the smooth stand, the rally can be expected. In the evening, focus on the support of the $84.1 line, if it breaks down, it may test the strong support level of $81.5. High probability scenario: bullish above 84.1, target 87.1-88.2; Low probability scenario: Bear below 84.1, target 83.0-81.5. If you are confused about trading, please join me, I believe you will have a great harvest!
TVC:USOILLong
by HectorBrown1
USOIL: Crude oil analysis and operation With Opec + pledging to curb oil supply until the end of the year and Asia's economic recovery expected to expand again, we expect global oil inventories to fall by 70 million barrels over the next three months. As a result, we now see Brent averaging $91 / BBL in the second half, up from $81 / BBL previously. Still, our forecast for 2024 remains at $90 per barrel, thanks to an increase of 1.2 million BPD in non-OPEC supply from Guyana, Canada, U.S. shale, and Brazil. In addition, if sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are further eased, supply will increase by 450,000 BPD in 2024. As Opec + politics and global geopolitics allow, the increased supply will help restrain further price increases. Oil prices surged 3.50 per cent yesterday, with intraday highs above $95. After the opening of the morning, oil prices surged on the inertia, the high point entered the $95 mark, and the current pressure is below 94, and the momentum of turning the gun is still strong. In operation, it is still a reasonable choice to short the rally. Short-term strategy reference: High probability scenario: bearish below 95.0, target 93.0-92.0; Low probability scenario: Bullish above 92.0, target 95.0-96.2.
TVC:USOILLong
by HectorBrown1
Crude Oil: Strategy Advice Short The oil supply outlook remains tight, with Russia and Saudi Arabia both cutting output through the end of the year, while the number of operating oil rigs in the United States has dropped to its lowest level since the end of the year. U.S. refiners are also cutting production capacity, further tightening supply. While these factors are expected to continue to support prices, overall economic concerns are limiting oil prices' upside potential. In the short term, oil prices will continue to be impacted by the above factors. Rising interest rates, a stronger dollar and worries about the global economy appear to be offsetting the benefits of limited supply. However, with the start of China's National Day Golden Week, a potential rebound in tourist numbers may bring some support to oil prices. But until global economic concerns are eased, oil market sentiment tends to be bearish. Short-term strategy reference: High probability scenario: bearish above 90.6, target 90.0-90.6. Small probability scenario: bullish below 88.8, target 88.5-88.9 Market comment: RSI technical indicator runs downward!
TVC:USOILShort
by Dylan-Jones
USOIL: Crude oil analysis and layout Crude oil last week unilateral strong pull up, is currently in high volatility, this wave is still not over, is still a callback to do more, four-hour chart, last week fell back to the mid-track quickly pull up, back just to prepare for the rise, this week is still open at a high level, the current volatility around 91.3, intra-day focus on important support level 89.5/90.3, This position is also the support point of the rail in the four-hour chart, and the position of the tail plate can be more! Specific layout: USOIL:BUY@89.5-90.3 TP 92.0 Join me and don't let hesitation and procrastination affect your earning speed!
TVC:USOILLong
by HectorBrown1
Crude oil: trend analysis continues to push back more Although we are currently at the end of a phased rise in crude oil, the bulls are still very strong and continue to hit new highs. Therefore, we still maintain a bullish and long thinking before the necessary turning signal appears. The only thing that needs to be paid attention to is the number of each transaction. Risk control must be strictly implemented to prevent emergencies from occurring. Still looking for opportunities to continue trading lower during the day. The main reason why crude oil is bullish is that the upward trend of wave 3 and wave 5 is still continuing, and there is still a slight retracement on the way, and it is still bullish. It has now entered the final peak moment of wave 3 of wave 5-5. Crude oil pressure 91.30~92.10, support 91.4
TVC:USOILLong
by Dylan-Jones
Crude oil: exceeded my expectations and keeps rising Crude oil bulls continue to take the initiative in the market and pulled up again yesterday. It is now close to the previous secondary high of 85.5. This is not the ultimate goal of the bulls, but the only thing that needs to be considered is that there may be an adjustment within the day and then rise. In the short term The node still looks at the previous high of 87 as the target. According to the deduction of the wave trading system, the main reason why crude oil is expected to rise is that: the overall rising rhythm of waves 3 and 5 has gradually changed from the initial shock upward to a unilateral rise, and the performance of bulls has become more and more obvious. Crude oil pressure 85~85.3, For crude oil operations, it is recommended to buy at 84.5, with a target of 84.0~84.50. (The point may be revised as the market changes during the day, subject to real-time strategy)
TVC:USOILLong
by Dylan-Jones
Crude oil: back above 80 again Oil prices rebounded at the opening and remained stable. On the whole, whether it is the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations cooling, the dollar’s fall, the rise in U.S. stocks, or the possible impact of U.S. hurricanes on supply, coupled with a sharp decline in crude oil inventories and geopolitical tensions, they all tend to support oil prices. Technical The short-term bullish signal has also strengthened, and oil prices are expected to retest the resistance near the August high of 84.87. The trend of crude oil daily chart is currently stable above the short-term moving average, and today it is stable again above the middle rail line. The market outlook will rely on the middle rail line and the short-term moving average to support the bullish rebound. Below, focus on the support around $81.00 and $81.5. In terms of operational thinking, the main focus is to go long and be bullish. Go long near 81.20, stop loss: 80.70: target 83.00
TVC:USOILLong
by Dylan-Jones
1
Crude oil: There is still room for today's strategy to rise In the U.S. market, WTI crude oil rose and closed down, once rising to $80.7/barrel, but failed to hold the $80 mark, closing down 0.03%, at $79.94/barrel, due to the threat of tropical storms in the U.S. Gulf crude oil production and news that Saudi Arabia may extend the production cut time and other benefits and rise, but the Fed's further interest rate hike worries limit oil prices, Therefore, oil prices continued to run on the strong side at the beginning of the session. Overall, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates has risen, and increasing demand concerns have limited oil price gains. However, tropical storms in the US Gulf Coast may cause supply disruptions to bring support. Before this week's non-agricultural data, oil prices may remain volatile around US$80/barrel. In the short term, pay attention to the impact of API data and market uncertainties on oil prices. Short near 81.60, stop loss: 82.20, target 80.60 First step back around 80.40 to go long, stop loss: 79.90, target to be determined
TVC:USOILShort
by Dylan-Jones
Crude oil: continue to maintain decline I have encountered many investors who are still losing money and are confused. There is no fixed market, and there are no fixed investors. They need to continuously learn and adjust to integrate into the market. Years of experience in the industry and a caring guidance team will accompany you on your investment journey and provide you with solid investment ideas. The market is endless, the market is constantly evolving, and the transaction will never stop. Although we can't do everything in every wave of market, we can seize the ever-changing opportunities, treat the market with an objective and calm attitude, and analyze the market , wait for the market, and make full preparations for each transaction. If a worker wants to do a good job, he must first sharpen his weapon. It is not that trading is better than trading. WTI crude oil October futures closed at US$78.89/barrel, falling below US$80/barrel for the first time in a week, down 0.9% on the day. The EIA report released earlier today was mixed. Crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels, but investors also took a bearish look at the report, which showed U.S. crude production rose to a three-year high of 12.8 million barrels per day. Also, implied gasoline demand was below 9 mb/d for the sixth of the past seven weeks, a weak sign for gasoline demand in what should be the peak summer driving season Go short around 79.20 on the rebound, stop loss: 79.80, target at 77.00
FX:USOILShort
by Dylan-Jones
Crude oil, today's strategy is bearish Crude oil is now clearly in a bearish trend. The k-line starts to exert force from the upper rail, the big Yin line breaks through the middle rail, and the k-line goes all the way south to the lower rail. At present, the k-line directly dives downward, and the Bollinger Band track is also opened downward. The opening is gradually enlarged, the lower triple bottom is near 79.0, the big Yinxian will inevitably break through, empty, 79.0 air The market continues to consolidate weakly in the bottom area, and the overall oscillation at the support level of the trend line has now converged. We can clearly see from the attached picture below that the bottom area signal has appeared yesterday, and the bottom area in the early stage is relatively stable. In terms of a wave of rebound, yesterday’s intraday reappearance is relatively a rebound. In the short term, we can focus on the pressure. Only when we recover the lost ground will we go up further. , the specific suggestions are as follows: Operating strategy: crude oil 79.0 empty, take profit 78.5-78.0, Crude oil 78.0 into,
FX:USOILShort
by Dylan-Jones
Crude oil: bottoming trend again The main reason for crude oil to look down is: the rebound for several consecutive days touched the pressure and fell back. Or a more bullish view is the sub-wave 2 adjustment in the midst of 3 waves and 5 rises. Crude oil pressure 80.65~81.10, support 79.70~79~78.60. Crude oil operation is recommended to enter at 81.1, take profit at 79.6, target at 79.2~79.5, and take profit at 80.3 (the point may be revised as the market changes during the session, and the real-time strategy shall prevail)
FX:USOILLong
by Dylan-Jones
Crude oil: peaking again Crude oil should have mentioned that it will rebound, and the rebound trend is not small. It has already come out this time. From the indicators, the high point of this rebound is around 82. If the peak trend remains unchanged, this Nearby is more difficult to break. Moreover, crude oil is negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar in a certain trend. The sharp rise of the U.S. dollar will also affect the price of crude oil. Gold is in a weak position, but crude oil is due to factors such as production cuts and expectations of interest rate hikes. The price of crude oil continues to soar, but still the same sentence, the reduction in interest rate hike expectations has been large enough. As long as there is something that is not conducive to the suspension of interest rate hikes, the interest rate hike expectations will still rise, and crude oil will be under pressure. Strategy: 81.7 buy up 83.4 buy down The demand for crude oil is expected to increase, but crude oil is not the same as gold after all. Crude oil has no currency attribute after all. Although it also has a hedging attribute, it is still not as strong as gold, and the aspects that can be affected are not as extensive as gold, so the demand for crude oil The expected increase in volume is also a matter of this year, but the price will not be too inclined.
FX:USOILLong
by Dylan-Jones
Crude oil: high, short-term first look at the fall Judging from the current price action, crude oil bulls have encountered a slight resistance, indicating that the market may start to weaken. After experiencing a wave of unilateral gains, the crude oil market was challenged at the 85 level, which may be due to a certain degree of exhaustion in the market, which led to a slight correction. Despite market concerns about an economic slowdown, demand remains resilient, and the fundamentals of the crude oil market look much more optimistic than a month ago. At the same time, due to OPEC+ and Saudi production cuts, supply is decreasing, and short-term crude oil prices may hit 85 again. When the price encountered obstacles near the upper track and fell back, the price rose twice and failed to stand on the 85 line. There are signs of a short-term fall. The price fall is just a normal correction in the process of rising, and it does not mean that the direction is reversed. Watch the market The price retraces slightly, and there is a risk of continuing to go lower. In the short term, we will first see a wave of decline, and then continue to continue the upward trend. The price fell below the first-line support of the middle rail, and there is a possibility of further decline. In the short-term within the day, we need to pay attention to the support near 82.5 below. Once the price falls below this position, it is possible to step back on the first-line 81.8. In terms of short-term operation ideas, we should first take a wave of prices Stepping back, focus on the resistance in the 82.8-83 area above. Operating strategy: rebound in the 82.8-83 area and short, stop loss 83.4, target 81.8
FX:USOILLong
by Dylan-Jones
Crude Oil Analysis Today​Crude oil tested high yesterday and fell back. First, the inertia rushed above 85.3 and was under pressure. The European and American markets oscillated and backtested and corrected. Finally, the daily line harvested the Xiaoyin K line. After the daily yang line turned to the small yin K line for correction, the current space is enough to form the top, which is only regarded as a partial callback correction. The upward trend is slowing down, and after the correction, it will regain its momentum to rise again, but it will become volatile in the short term, changing from a strong rise to a slow rise in shock. Today's weekly line ends. Pay attention to the rhythm of the short-term, it should be to step back first, then start to stabilize and slowly recover the lost ground. The 4-hour chart is in a partial correction in the rising wave, and the indicators in the attached picture are in the overbought area to be digested. At present, the whole is running above the upward trend line, and today's short-term may step back to confirm the support of the upward trend line. The European and American markets started to rebound again. The support points are mainly concentrated at 82-81.5. There is still a certain distance at present, and of course strong corrections may not reach it. At present, it is necessary to wait for the magnitude of the correction. The main idea is to maintain the low and many positions after the backtest, but the long position should be rearranged according to the intraday pattern. After all, there has been a partial correction in the small cycle. Coupled with the closing of the week, the short-term may enter a volatile ending. In terms of operation, it is subject to the market, and the tentative thinking is to wait for the step back and then go long. ​ ​​​​Crude oil operation strategy: SELL84.1-84.5 short, stop loss 60pips, target below 83. Crude oil operation strategy: step back to more than 81.6-82, stop loss 60pips, target above 83.5. The current crude oil spread is large, stop loss friends and the entry position can be set to 60pips
TVC:USOILLong
by ActuaryJ
USOIL:10/8 crude oil analysis,uptrend unchangedAt the beginning of the Asian market on August 10 (Thursday), U.S. crude oil was around $84.4 per barrel; U.S. oil hit a new high in nearly four months on Wednesday, and Brent crude oil hit the highest level since January. Production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia outweighed concerns about slowing demand in Asia. U.S. crude oil inventories climbed last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell as oil exports fell sharply, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Crude inventories jumped 5.9 million barrels last week to 445.6 million barrels, with inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rising by 159,000 barrels in the week ended Aug. 4. Yesterday, the technical aspects of oil prices relied on the 82.9 mark as a whole and continued the trend of extremely strong bulls pulling up and breaking through the high. Breaking through the 84.8 first line quickly fell back to the 83 integer mark and then rebounded to a strong close above 84. The daily K-line reported a shock and broke the high school sun. Around -82.8, the intraday retracement relies on this position to continue to be bullish and then bullish. The upper target level continues to focus on breaking through the high. The recent bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 82.5 mark. Stepping back is an opportunity to do more. ​ Crude oil operation strategy: rebound to 85.6-85.9 empty, stop loss 60pips, target below 84.1. Crude oil operation strategy: Step back to more than 83.2-83.5, stop loss 60pips, target above 85.5. There is a large difference in the quotations of crude oil contracts, SL friends and the entry position can be set to 60pips
TVC:USOILLong
by ActuaryJ