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Usoilforecast

Why Crude Oil and NATGAS prices are rising? What is next? Since August 20202, the crude oil price has risen because of demand. However, during covid suddenty, crude oil demand dropped. But very soon, crude oil managed to recover its market. Since November 2020, Crude oil prices have been rising gradually following its trendline support and trendline resistance. Everything was fine till the Russian and Ukraine crisis started. When the situation started, and till now, crude oil prices rose almost $25/barrel. Is Russia is a factor in the rising crude oil and others fuel prices? The answer is yes. Russia is the largest exporter of fuel to the European market. Neither the United States nor Russia has moved away; On the contrary, both sides have increased their military presence. In the meantime, the Nord Stream-2 pipelines have been under discussion for a few days. This pipeline has been laid to take gas from Russia to Germany. However, both the United States and Germany have said that if Russia invades Ukraine, work on the Nord Stream-2 pipelines will be delayed. As a result, NATGAS prices also rose nearly $2. Russia, Norway, Algeria, and Qatar are the four countries in the European Union that import the most natural gas. Of this, 41.1% came from Russia and 16.2% from Norway. The rest of the countries from which natural gas comes are less than 10 per cent. The same is true of crude oil. Europen country's imports from Russia are 26.9 per cent of their crude oil. The amount of crude oil imported from any other country is not more than 10 per cent. In addition, 47.8% of timber and coal are imported from Russia. According to the European Union's 2019 update, the United States imports 16.6 per cent of this timber and coal. This means that if Europe imposes sanctions on Russia over its attack on Ukraine, Russia alone will pay the price. In this context, we can talk about the 1967 Israel-Aber war. In the wake of the six-day war, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Libya, and Algeria joined forces to cut off fuel supplies to the United States, the United Kingdom, and West Germany. In 1963, the Arab-Israeli war broke out again. Once again, Arab countries cut off oil supplies to the United States. The reason is that the United States supplied arms to Israel. In addition, Arab countries cut off oil supplies to the Netherlands, Portugal, and South Africa because they supported Israel. Although its impact is felt worldwide, oil prices are rising all over the world. Though the situation is not the same right now, Arab countries are best allies with the USA and European countries. But we have to keep in mind that Rusia himself supplies 41.1% crude oil to Europe. So, only the Arab countries won't tackle that demand and situation. So as long as this crisis won't finish or world leaders won't reach a solution, it is expected that the crude oil and NATGAS price has more chances to rise in the upcoming days. If you are a crude oil and NATGAS trader, you should always keep in touch about the Russian and Ukrain issues. As these commodity prices stay in pick, any developing news about the Russia and Ukraine crisis may decrease crude oil and NATGAS prices. Crude Oil Technical Analysis Crude oil is hovering nearly its trendline resistance zone. The present rate, trendline resistance, is identified at $93/95/barrels. So, unless the crisis accelerates, we may see some correction from the trendline resistance level. $77 is identified as trendline support from the current level. If the market goes for correction, it may test the $77/75 price zone. As long as crude price holds above the $75 price zone, it still is an uptrend. So, we may see another upward lag from the $77/75price zone. Our final upside target is $100/107price zone this year. It may take time to see the crude oil price above $100. But if what won't solve the Russia and Ukraine issue and accelerates more, it is just a matter of time before the crude and NATGAS price will spike to the upside.
TVC:USOILLong
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
US OIL MARKET BREAKDOWN Hello traders and welcome to our opening week breakdown...Lets cover oil in all its glory. After Tuesday oil broke away from it's bearish correction before reaching it's target zone...I stated we must stay open to this idea and that oil could do this although it's in need of a pullback. As oil pushed higher during the week we have another bullish weekly candle and we can expect price to go higher but until there is a clear break above 87.97 then I would be open to the possibilities of those pull backs first. We had two daily DOJI candle's showing indecision at a crucial zone so price will get interesting from here. Please don't think I am being ignorant to the bullish move as I stated oil would have a very bullish Q1 and Q2 expecting price to breach into the $90 region so we are still inline with the overall analysis. As stated before Oil will need some serious momentum and drive to breach this $87.97 region...this breach will either come from technical or fundamental data. If the breach comes from fundamental data (news, data, inflation etc) then the move will be large and parabolic but should the move come from technical data then we need to open to ideas of pull backs to obtain liquidity. The longer oil goes without a significant pull back the more volatile the drop will be when it does come. We can see that oil has met a ranging region which it needs to break from either way...the candles show downside but Between 84.64 - 87.97 the areas are very choppy so we can't rely on candle data alone. Confirmation is needed but likely when the move comes it will be fast. I am looking to long oil from SIGNIFICANT PULL BACKS ONLY (MANIPULATION). Set ups are available by following the signature.
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn33264805
1
US OIL MARKET BREAKDOWN USOIL MARKET BREAKDOWN: We have stayed silent on oil this week and let it run it's course. Unfortunately oil is at a region where it's extremely choppy at all levels which makes trading and analysing that little bit harder. Oil broke the bearish channel with an extreme impulse showing bulls back in control of the smaller trend. I was surprised that we didn't see larger dips or even a retest of the bullish trend but again it makes the uptrend vulnerable to a large dip. Charts should have an equilibrium about them making for organic structure which is usually what we see in oil but right now we are not. Oil is at a region now where it will push to $93 without a pullback or it will pull back first. I warned members of an inverse head and shoulders which ended up coming through. Should OIL push to $93 without a pullback in the first instance then the drop will be large and volatile once resistance is met in this area. I am only interested in shorting from $93 region. My eyes are set on buys and these have been marked by the blue arrows. The dashed blue lines show oil taking a dip towards a major support zone which also lines up with a hidden trendline...Should oil find support here then I will look to long. The solid blue lines show oil taking a dip towards the last line of defence for oils bullish move to stay valid which also lines up with the clear trend...Should oil find support here then I will look to long. Regardless oil is bullish and pullbacks are due I warned of quick movements to the upside given the bullish pressure we have seen. We took three trades on oil this week leaving us around 180-190 pips in profit. OIL is currently in an area where I see no trade but once is meets one of my three aspects mentioned above then I will look to execute a trade. Regardless on my thoughts on pullbacks I will not be looking to short any short-mid term bearish movements. Make sure you are following us and using the signature down below to keep up to date with us.
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn33264805
2
USOIL UPDATEGood Evening guys; Beautiful short taken by our community today...Falling further is something I expected as stated in my last breakdown. The drop was called and I said a "FREE FALL" will take place below 84.74 which is exactly what happened. This is no coincidence as we know where the market it going. My bias hasn't changed on oil and I am still bullish and as we can see we have a nice down trend channel forming. Again the rise from $74 to $87 was called and then we would starting seeing pullbacks...You can't make this type of accuracy and knowledge up! Oil is now below a significant resistance point which until it has solid closures above oil will continue to fall further, although we can see bulls taking back ground I still see $80.40-$79.88 coming through before we move towards $90 again. The market will be confusing for many but not for us, we know where the market is going and we know how to trade with the institutions. our sell limit wasn't met so this was changed to a sell order missing out on our TP by 12 pips but we were still able to secure around 250 pips today. Fake outs to the $85.20 region are very welcome and I will look to short given the set up and conditions are correct but as soon as I see 80.40 -79.88 I will look to long. Great trade. Great result. Great community. Follow us to keep and use the signature for our trade updates
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn33264805
15
USOIL TRADE IDEASGood Evening guys; Market open tonight and I am looking forward to see where oil will open...If you haven't read my most recent breakdown make sure you do so as it gives contexts to these two trades. It's not often I post the positions that I play on taking on trading viewing so I hope you enjoy these...We bagged around 350 pips by the end of the trading week and we look to carry it on this week. These set ups could change so make sure you are following us and use the signature down below for even more content. Disclaimer: This isn't financial advice and trading carries risk! Do not overleverage
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn33264805
4
USOIL MARKET OVERVIEW Good Evening guys; Here is my opening week breakdown/overview for OIL... As we can see from the $87 dollar region OIL reversed nicely with a large bearish gap and a rejection of the trendline. We can see that OIL has had some of the most bearish 4hr candles that we have seen in a while and this is a good sign for a deeper correction, we can also see that bulls are struggling to gain lost ground so sellers are in the market to an extent. The more organic candle development there is, the easier charts flow. We can see from the reversal area that Oil has made a gradual correction almost forming a natural channel but we can see under the most recent candles that for buyers price is in steep incline making it unstable and liable to breakouts. OIL is caught between the two dashed orange lines and this is a choppy range where oil will either break to the upside or downside (arrows mapping the movements). Should OIL fall below the bottom orange line then it will be a quick drop to the bullish reversal zone. This bullish reversal zone is key for oils development. Should it break then we will see deep liquidity to the red line or even drop off 72.40. In this case I see 80.40 acting a strong support area and creating a new lower high in the market attracting buyers again. OIL is still stupidly bullish which is why I have marked the "blue arrow scenario" because we can't ignore this. Tensions with Russia could cause extreme volatility within oil at any moment so I am taking less risk and keeping tighter stop losses on ALL trades. The community has been given a road map to follow for oil and so far it's playing out nicely, upon clear rejections I will be looking to short again and then buy once support is found around 80.40. MAKE SURE YOU CHECK OUT OUR SIGNATURE
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn33264805
1
CrudeOil, let's set the Stop ProfitI have to say that MCS did an amazing job this time too . Since we entered there has only been a small drawdown on January 20th, and then it decided to reverse the trend, or at least make a nice pullback, and we are sellers on the highs! Now we have to do something that for many will be incomprehensible, others will certainly not, and finally the last will accept it because they know how certain portfolio management works. We need to set the Stop Profit just below our Entry Point. We need to secure this trade, and assume that I am the first to want to see a profit go to target, but we need to save our buttocks from a hypothetical reversal of the reversal and a resumption of the primary trend. You have to think: If I go to Stop Profit I have not lost anything. This is the winning mentality, I push when there is a need to push towards the target and I also accept the cancellation of my analysis without losing anything, indeed earning a few pips. I close the parenthesis on the mindset and insert the Stop Profit at 85.50
OShort
by The_Cyclical_Trading
USOIL MARKET BREAKDOWNWhat a day to be following us; Lets Recap first: One of my first posts on DEC 28th 2021 I stated oil will push from the $70 region to the $87 region, I stated when we reach that $87 dollar region that the market will reverse like it has done today. We took short from $86.68 and have bagged ourselves around 230 pips profit. Explanation: Due to inflation and other factors oil has been climbing nonstop for weeks upon weeks with virtually no pullbacks, the higher oil went without pull backs the more violent the drop will be. If you look back through my ideas you can quote words such as "violent drops" "liquidity" and "long wicks". All of these have been present today and almost a month of planning has come true...you can't say we don't know oil or what we are talking about. Due to oil climbing rapidly it was only a matter of time before we saw the drop like today (I wont disclose how I knew the reversal point...that's a secret) but I will tell you how it was easily spotted. Oil climb to $86.92 where I went short and took profit before going long back up again, The fact that oil showed some nice pullbacks from this region showed institutions had sell orders around this level. Oil flashed up higher creating a fake out (all you needed to do was look at the daily candle to see where oil actually closed). When oil closed it opened back up with a very bearish market gap which had broken that extremely steep trendline, the trendline was not manageable and this move was long overdue (the bigger they are the harder they fall). When oil came back up and closed the gap it tapped the broken trend, in doing so it had a long wick showing that the institutional sell orders were there again...this all also lined up with the 61.8 fib and a small head and shoulders pattern which developed...all these reasons were to short. I have marked the major resistance zone which oil could pull back above temporarily but ultimately I believe it will fall below...I will look to find another short upon a pullback. This isn't oil going bearish, all it is doing is having a correction from it's bullish rampage. Ultimately I will be looking for longs at the right positions. We did very very well today and there is nothing better than when a long awaited plan comes together. MAKE SURE YOU USE THE SIGNATURE DOWN BELOW!!!!
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn33264805
12
US OIL MARKET BREAKDOWN USOIL BREAKDOWN; OIL has been persistently bullish since 20/12/21 and has we can see on this 4hr chart there has been no pullbacks during it's rally, throughout my breakdowns a constant word has appeared (liquidity), the longer oil goes on without any pullbacks the violent the drop will be grabbing as much liquation as possible to drive it up further. Think of it like this right now is a train powered by coal, the train is constantly being fed with fuel driving it at 100mph but eventually this fuel is going to run out and the train will come to halt at platform and fuel will be loaded back up again. Oil reached 85.47 which was marked out in the last breakdown and its another target hit, as I have stated previously oil is in a region on the charts where there is no slowing down until $87 region but again this could be smashed through due to the train analogy stated above as at this moment in time no one can be sure when the drop is coming, the only region I am comfortable shorting from is the $87 region but this would be done with caution and little risk. The main factor driving oil right now is inflation but the tensions between Russia and the US could drive it even further. DXY plays a role in oil and a decline in the dollar can easily push oil higher as well. Right now oil is a raging bull and its not to be messed with so it's a case of sitting and waiting for $87 before we make a decision. Realistically oil should be offering a pull back around $87 but nothing is certain at this stage.
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn33264805
2
Opening week oil breakdownOpening week breakdown: Summary: Oil closed very bullish and we can see by these price ranges that oil engulfed 2-3 day price range in a matter of hours. This shows oil has a lot of momentum even at these higher levels, as you can see from telegram I stated that we would push higher and the double top was false. Oil shows no signs of slowing right now and the real resistance zone which should show some bearish price action are the two marked zones at the top. I expect oil to hit these rapidly and have a correction. Oil hasn't really corrected since $67 so we are long over due one, I am not looking for shorts in particular due to the smashing momentum but I wouldn't be shy from $87. We have seen in the past that $87 as proved itself as huge resistance and price has ranged from there all the way down to $81, I expected a further dip to fill the gap as this would provide liquidity and false break to the down side. Trade setups are the follow this week in telegram for free members. Should the gap fill scenario playout I would look to long from the gap fill to $90. I will be focusing on my levels to trade and scalp oil. Bias: Long Closing Sub to us and follow are signature to receive start, mid and ending week oil updates, trade ideas and analysis.
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn33264805
1
Unique analyis for USOIL, Wyckoff P&F targetsAs you see P&F chart on the right. USOIL is bullish . Price can reach 85.5-86.6 as our estimating targets. We'd like to see price going up to grab liquidity above previous highs. Now, we're still holding long positions. If we have a distribution, we can think about selling USOIL after that. If you find the article useful or interesting, Let's comment below ! ------------------------------------------ Notes on using this USOIL trading idea This is ONLYGOLD team's idea and analysis. Let's see it as an example or a reference. You also need your own analysis as well and manage risks.
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn33462838