UPDATE: Oops, I made a mistakeI would like to apologize for my previous analysis on oil. Whilst the idea was correct, I falsly planted the fib retracement a nd got wrong levels. Apparantly, the new pivot point is at $46.1. Thus I changed my target to that. Other than the wrong levels, you can read "Oil hates uncertainty" for more information on the trade.
Usoilsell
Oil hates uncertainty1 month ago today, OPEC unofficially decided that they would cut production by 32.5-33m br/day. That announcement sent oil into gains frenzy skyrocketing it to almost $52/barrel. That unofficial statement was not enough to make oil break the resistance and reach the expected price of $60/barrel. Now during the OPEC and non-OPEC members meeting in Vienna in Friday and Saturday things took a very different turn than hoped. Starting with the OPEC meeting on Friday, the members failed to come to a conclusion and cut production with the biggest opposer being Iraq. Saturday, leaks hint towards a non-conclusive meeting as well. This leads me to expect further movement south for oil over the next weekend. TP for me is $47. Still, I think no production cut could mean that oil tumbles more and thus I will be trading oil over the next month until their next meeting ONLY if it manages to break below the $47-46.8 area with relatively high volume and if indicators favour a short play.
OIL SELL TRADEON THE DAILY WE HAVE A STRUCTURE WHERE PRICE HAS BOUNCED BACK FROM THE 43.00 FIB LEVEL.
ALSO THERE IS A SQUEEZE MOMENTUM PATTERN WHERE PRICE WILL MOST LIKELY FALL TO PROFIT TARGET 40, 8 AND PROFIT TARGET 33.63.
ENTER TRADE JUST BELOW THE 43 FIB LEVEL WITH A STOP JUST ABOVE 44 LEVEL.
PRICE SHOULD AFTER THAT TEST THE RESISTANCE TREND LINE AND FALL TO
PROFIT TARGET 1 40.80
PROFIT TARGET 2 38
PROFIT TARGET 3 33.63
AFTER THE BREAK OF EACH PROFIT TARGET DOUBLE UP ON POSITION.
/CL - Comex Market Analysis and Trading Tips - 28th June 2016Overview:
The Crude oil market had a fairly negative day on Monday, as market continue to worry about all things European Union and United Kingdom related. The primary trend of Crude oil is bearish on charts. On its 4 hourly chart, market is trading below 100 days moving average. It is having important resistance at the level of $48.12 and support level at the level of $46.50. On its 4 hourly charts, MACD is sustaining in its negative territory and RSI is sustaining in its selling zone indicating the upcoming bearish trend in the oil prices. On an intraday basis one can go for sell on higher level strategy.
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Short USOILFundamentals:- Although we had a drop in the API figures yesterday the EIA figures have not been reflected consistently in the Price. The freeze in Oil production is looking less likely to happen with Iran still wishing to compete for their market share. With little hope of a reduction in production the Oil price is likely to remain low for some time.
Technicals:- As you can see from the chart we are in the early stages of a head and shoulders pattern which is indicative of a reversal on this up trend. I will be looking to sell from the top of the second shoulder targeting the 26.00 support price. Learn to trade like a pro for free bankonadam.com
USOIL ::: SHORT ::: REVERSAL CALLUSOIL is expected to sink now.
There are many reason why we feel it may sink.
01. It is trying to touch Tgt 01. of quarterly short level of 29.66
02. HAMMER in daily Chart.
03. To sink and come near quarterly Tgt 01. sell level of 29.66
04. Stoch RSI (3,3,14,Close) clearly states it may sink.
05. RSI(14,CLOSE) Is also of the same view.
06. CCI(20,CLOSE) Is also sinking.
Keeping all the above indicators in view along with the chart pattern we expect it to sink. Our sell call shall be from sell bellow:31.29 with a SL @: 31.71 Tgt01: 30.06 Tgt02: 29.66 . Please bear in mind this is reversal call. Caution: The above is our personal view. Neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for trade. Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing.