Usoiltrade
oil price developing in a parallel channel approaching the $42.0after the massive selloff from this week, we see that the price is approaching an important support level which is respected multiple times
in history. all stocks and indexes are in deep red numbers and this includes oil too. on the other hand, we know that this selloff has also
an end. from next week, we can expect some reversal signs. personally I expect some little more downside movement to hit the 42$ zone.
watch for potential longs in the $42.00 zone
USOIL and the SHORT ZONEAs we can see the value is falling for the Coronavirus consequences, anyway We also expect the fall (with a possibility of a retest in the uptrend tendence) but the value will continue falling, we also see a good retest in 61% of fibonacci , an evening doji star at the last LH and a strong down tendence
WTI Crude ABC Corrective Pattern - Possible Wave 3 Buy SetupCrude Oil fell quite sharply past month due to US-Iran conflict and recent Corona Virus news, there is plenty of support around $50 mark on this market, this is a counter trend trade as I am seeing momentum weakness and convergence around this area so expecting the market to revisit $54 mark.
Trade Safe!
#USOIL, Only if you like risk click on the above signal! True, this is a signal that goes against the current trend and therefore the risk is higher but the above support line $ 50.8 cannot be ignored.
The RSI has reached the bottom possible, a necessary price correction.
Stochastic shows that USOIL in Oversold.
Target: $ 54
In case of break of the above support line the signal is canceled.
USOIL Fundamental UpdateUSOIL Fundamental Analysis
The president of OPEC mentioning a February meeting with the Russian oil Minister. An emerging meeting could be held as early as this coming week. The question is, what is the real impact of price of a barrel of sweet crude with so many moving parts across a trillion-dollar global supply chain. The president of OPEC mentioning a February meeting with the Russian oil Minister. An emerging meeting could be held as early as this coming week. The question is, what is the real impact of price of a barrel of sweet crude with so many moving parts across a trillion-dollar global supply chain. Fundamental headwinds include the impact on jet fuel demand and tensions in the middle east (Libya).
What's to come:
OPEC and the Saudi Oil minister wants to prove to the public right now that they are reacting proactively and display an earner willingness to react.
Output will be slashed. This was seen as the company went public back in December.
As mentioned, Libya has just shut down an 800,000 barrel/day pipeline. This compensates easily for the demand impact stemmed from the virus outbreak that the markets ignored; which is the issues on the supply side of Oil. Sentiment is so negative, that the market is fixated on the demand headlines and ignore issues on the supply side. Libyan production being offline for the last 2 weeks, has kept over 2 million barrels off of the market. When Libya went offline, it was assumed this was political. I think this shows something much worse, which is a theatre of war and thus a destruction to infrastructure.
Jet fuel prices in Asia are crashing. The question forward is, what’s the timeframe for the Coronavirus?
The U.S. rig count is at multi year lows, since last summer. At the current rig count level, the industry can’t grow. It would be at best a flatline, and probably a decline. A catalyst needs to come desperately, and this catalyst would be a spike in oil prices. Unless oil prices recover from current levels, there will be a structural shortage of WTI for years to come.
Bias is now long for both fundamentals and technical for WTI going forward this Q1
21:26:24 (UTC)
Sat Feb 1, 2020
USOIL EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change is included in the weekly report issued by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. It presents the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US companies.
EIA includes this report into Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) along with other information on supplies, stocks and prices for crude oil and principal petroleum products. It is a reliable source of current information on the energy industry used by manufacturers, press, policy makers, consumers and analysts, as well as state and local authorities. The report data describe supply and disposition of crude oil and petroleum products in the United States and large US regions.
The report is compiled based on data submitted by all companies, which can store at least 1000 barrels of crude oil. They include:
All pipeline companies (local and state), including interstate, domestic and local pipelines
Crude oil producers (oil companies)
Terminal operators
Crude oil storers (except refineries)
Companies transporting Alaskan crude oil by water in other states and the District of Columbia
Increase of US crude oil stocks can indicate a decrease in demand for crude oil or increase in production. Such an increase negatively affects global oils prices, though it is a short-term effect. A downward trend is only formed in the market if crude oil stocks increase steadily for several weeks in a row.
Simple Technical Buy Set-up in USOILAfter a decent correction, USOIL is now showing signs of consolidation at the 100D EMA.
Besides, it has also bounced off the ascending Trend Line.
In addition, we have a nice Doji candle after the recent drop.
All these technical factors point to a rise in USOIL in the coming days.
So, if price manages to stay above 58, I would be looking to buy with 63 as my initial target.
If price breaks the area that I have highlighted in my chart, then long entries will not be safe anymore.