Has crude oil stopped its decline?Can we buy crude oil?Because of market concerns about the recession, the demand for crude oil has been hit to a large extent. Then the acceptable price of crude oil in the cycle of slow economic development is in the 70-65 area. People familiar with the crude oil market must know that crude oil basically fluctuated in the 70-82 area in the early stage. Judging from this, crude oil still has room to continue to fall.
Judging from the current crude oil trend structure, crude oil has fallen sharply and broken below the flag-shaped consolidation structure, and the bearish trend is obvious. Although the current downward trend has paused, there is no signal to stop the decline completely, and the rebound here is extremely weak, so the pause here may be to build a downward relay structure.
In addition, in the ultra-short-term structure, crude oil has repeatedly tested the support near 74 without breaking below, so in the case of a short-term plunge in crude oil, there is a need for technical upward repair.And there is 50% support for Fibonacci below the short-term, so crude oil may also use this to launch a small-level rebound.Therefore, pay special attention to the defensive situation near 74 in the short term.
In trading today, the trading signals I announced on the channel to go long gold around 1980 and 1976 all reached the take-profit target of 1986. The trading signals in the last two weeks have achieved a comprehensive victory, and the result of 0 losses is enough for us to reap satisfactory profits.In trading, whether it is gold or crude oil, I have the ability to satisfy your desire to make money. I have announced detailed trading signals about crude oil in the channel. Please pay attention to the trading signals in the channel.
Usoiltrend
With multiple positive support, oil prices are expected to rise?Although the major oil-producing countries have implemented production cuts to give some support to crude oil, the demand for crude oil is not too strong because the economic recovery may be much slower than originally expected.Because when market demand surges, OPEC does not need to cut production significantly, so oil prices may not rise further, but will continue to fall.
On the daily chart of crude oil, in view of the surge and fall of oil prices on Monday, and the failure to break through the pressure of the strong resistance area upward for a long time, oil prices at this position are at risk of short-term volatility and peak, and the phased replenishment of the gap has not yet been completed, so compared with the top, there is still a lot of space below, so once the upward energy of crude oil is exhausted, you need to seek new technical support downwards.
Short-term trading reference:
Sell crude oil above 80.2, take profit level 79.4
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views in dcb for USOILTVC:USOIL broke down a major support zone and now that support zone acting as a major resistance zone. upcoming strong support zone 62.45-60-65. upcoming trend will be sideways to downtrend.
Disclaimer - This chart analysis is only for educational purpose. Do proper research before trade/investment or consult with your financial advisor. This expressed opinion/view/analysis isn't a trade/investment advice/recommendation. SEBI unregistered independent trader/analyst.
USOIL: Bottom fishing, with potential return to $80 per barrel
US crude oil has fallen for three consecutive days, pushing oil prices below $70 per barrel. As the market continues to revise down expectations for economic growth, and rising crude oil supplies offset the boost from China's reopening and the instability caused by the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse and Credit Suisse crisis, the financial market is facing huge instability, which has led to a sharp drop in oil prices.
As the development of fundamentals continues to weigh on risk sentiment, US crude oil has extended its decline, breaking through the previous support (now turned into resistance) at the important psychological level of $70. As of Wednesday's close, US crude oil has fallen more than 12% this week, pushing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) into oversold territory. At the same time, this round of decline has pushed oil prices towards the 200-week moving average (MA) of around $66, and oil prices have temporarily found support at this level.
Personally, I am bottom fishing and going long on USOIL at $66-68 per barrel. Due to the huge volatility of energy products, please control your position size. Only consider following my strategy if you have sufficient capital. Enter the market with a small position and aim for long-term profits, with a target of $80 per barrel on the upside.
I have conducted in-depth research on futures products such as cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks, gold, and crude oil. I also update my daily operation strategies. Thank you for your attention and support. If you have any questions, please feel free to leave a message, and I will provide the most secure advice. I hope I can help you.
howto set stoploss correctly and do a goodjob of risk managementStop loss is a necessary means to control risk, and using a good stop loss point is the only way for investors to win.
There are two types of methods for setting the stop loss point: the first type is a regular stop loss, that is, when the reasons and conditions for buying or holding disappear due to changes in market conditions, the position must be closed or stopped immediately. The second category is auxiliary stop loss. In practice, the maximum loss method, retracement stop loss, sideways stop loss, expected R multiplier stop loss, key psychological price stop loss, tangent support level stop loss, moving average stop loss, cost moving average stop loss, Bollinger band stop loss, volatility stop loss, K-line combination stop loss, chip intensive area stop loss, CDP (contrarian operation) stop loss, etc.Investors should judge based on their own risk tolerance and choose a stop loss method that suits them.
The market has been fluctuating all the time, and there are opportunities at all times, but before we make a transaction, when we look at a certain position, we also need to refer to whether the stop loss position is well set, how much profit margin can be grasped, and whether it has played a role in using small capital to fight for high returns.
The size of the stop loss: It can be set according to the resistance support in the seeking stop loss point above. The size of the stop loss we are talking about here should be set more based on the profit margin. This is the high return of small capital. When our profit margin can only be seen at 5-8 points, the stop loss can be controlled at about 3 points; The stop loss point for medium- and long-term trading can be appropriately enlarged, and when the profit point is above 30 points, the stop loss can be set to more than 8-10 points.Of course, the size of the stop loss is more of a reference factor in resistance and support.
Spread in stop loss: We all know that the cost of trading is composed of spread and commission. When we place an order, we try to find the best entry point and calculate the spread. Then the same is true when setting the stop loss. The above talked about finding the stop loss point and the size of the stop loss, then in the gold investment market, it is often a decimal point that can change the profit or loss, so we need to calculate the spread when setting the stop loss.
Several principles for setting a stop loss point:
1. Once the stop loss point is set, it is not recommended to change frequently if it is not necessary. It should be implemented decisively. Stop loss is actually a prerequisite and guarantee for profit.
2. The stop loss point should be set before each lot is traded.
3. The stop loss point can be flexibly changed, but it must not be changed day and night.
4. Before setting the stop loss point, it must be based on the current overall trend
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Waiting for a rebound to go short.
In the early Asian session, US oil traded near $77.20 per barrel. On Tuesday, crude oil plummeted more than 4%, affected by Chairman Powell's speech exacerbating concerns about interest rate hikes and a stronger dollar. Powell stated to lawmakers on Tuesday that the Fed may need to raise interest rates more than expected to respond to strong recent data, which led to a downturn in most financial markets. Today, shorting is favored in crude oil. Strategy suggestion: Sell crude oil near $78.3-$78.5 with a stop loss at $79.2 and a target near $76. I will also give an alert once it reaches the target.
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TVC:USOIL FXOPEN:XAUUSD
State Of US OILOil has been chopping around for some time now.
Hopefully, you used it for scalp gains and loss mitigation on prior moves.
In either case it's a good time to trade it. But do not treat it as a high risk load in.
Levels have to be broken BEFORE you get to better Key PA ones.
Watch for more.
(back streaming soon)
USOIL top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USOIL possible buy zone!Instrument : USOIL
Possible direction : Bullish
Technical Analysis : After back to back 4 months of strong rejection from the support level, USOIL bulls has taken control of the market with strong impulse on the daily, price has broken out of the weekly resistance zone and it is highly likely USOIL will continue to rise with a strong momentum and may reach to 84.80 level where is the resistance level.
Possible trade recommendation : Bullish as per sketch.
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USOIL is shorted at 77.6
USOIL released the EIA data half an hour ago, which showed bearish news for USOIL. However, the market saw an uptrend mainly due to the fact that the data, although higher than expected, was lower than the previous value, which is actually bullish for USOIL. This rebound was also within expectations.
However, after the data release, the market is expected to return to the trend. Therefore, it is recommended to short USOIL on rallies.
Trading suggestion: short at 77.5, take profit at 76.2 and 75.5, stop loss at 78.2.
I have in-depth research on futures products such as cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks, gold, and crude oil. I also provide regular updates on trading strategies. Thank you for your attention and likes. If you have any questions, please leave me a message, and I will give the most reliable advice to help you.
USOIL top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USOIL Oct 1 22🧅Disclaimer :There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. This is Not Financial Advice
🧅JUST AN OPINION OF THE ONION.🧅
USOIL ! Is this the end of the oil down ? long trade idea.Oil prices have fallen in last few weeks, but the bullish trend continues for a long term. If USOIL get shows a support at the level of 74.20 and bullish forming, I open long trade.
Why oil is still bullish ?
1. World oil production rose 790 kb/d in August to 101.3 mb/d, with a strong recovery in Libya and smaller gains from Saudi Arabia and the UAE offset by losses in Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Russia. From August through December, growth is forecast to slow, edging up by just 280 kb/d to 101.6 mb/d. In 2022, global production is forecast to rise by 4.8 mb/d, to 100.1 mb/d, and by 1.7 mb/d in 2023 to 101.8 mb/d.
2. Geo-political events
The geopolitics of oil and gas can be viewed as resulting from the balance between supply and demand, which affects the power dynamics between energy exporters and importers, energy security, and the military strength of major powers
USO: Island Hopping 🏝 Summer is approaching slowly but surely, and some might start to arrange their next holiday. Meanwhile, USO is already heading south and has a bit of island hopping planned. The first stop should be in the green zone between $68.62 and $66.43, where USO should finish wave 3 in green – and maybe drink a cocktail or two. Then, it should draw some breath in a short countermovement to complete wave 4 in green. Afterwards, the next green island between $62.86 and $60.67 is waiting, where USO should conclude wave 5 in green, wave c in orange and wave in magenta. Following another countermovement in wave in magenta, USO should finally reach the warm beach strip between $60.18 and $43.48 to finish wave in magenta and wave (2) in yellow and to catch some rays.
USOIL warned you about it 2 weeks agoHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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On August 5th I posted about a reversal in the USOIL market, and I've set different Scenarios on how the market is most likely to move.
Today we see the result of that analysis, everything I said would happen happened where the market went near the support levels and bounced back and then down again to breakout the support level and continue moving down.
Now let us talk about what is going to happen with the USOIL market, In the last 2 weeks the USOIL had a big bearish movement as the price dropped more than 14%,
it dropped from 73.36 and today it's trading around 62.99.
It's a big Bearish movement that we had clear signs that it was gonna happen from divergences, Support & Resistance levels, and Candlestick pattern.
in the next period of time we have 2 scenarios of how the market price could be moving :
Scenario 1 :
The market price is now trending near the Support zone from 62.62 - 61.56 by reaching that area we gonna witness a battle between the Bears and the Bulls over control over the market, If the Bears were able to hold control then the price will breakout that zone and will be now on its way to hit the support line at 60.45.
Scenario 2 :
The market price is trending near the Support zone from 62.62 - 61.56, The Bulls will have the chance to show power over the Bears, they will need to gain control over the market and make the price bounce back up, if the Bulls were able to do that then the price will bounce from that support zone and will be headed near the first resistance line at 64.75 where the bulls will have to test the Bears power for any hope to bring the price back up.
Technical indicators showing :
1) The market price is below the 5 10 20 50 100 MA and EMA but still above the 200 MA & EMA. That means that the Moving Averages are giving a strong sell signal.
2) Stoch reached the oversold zone, with a negative crossover between %K (3.90) and %D (4.88)
3) The MACD is under the zero line showing that the market is still in a Bearish state, with a negative crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line.
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 62.62 1) 64.75
2) 61.56 2) 66.10
3) 60.45 3) 69.48
Fundamental point of view :
Oil prices steadied on Friday, clambering away from three-month lows, but they were still on track for a weekly loss of more than 5% as new lockdowns in countries facing surging cases of the COVID-19 Delta variant dampened the outlook for fuel demand.
Broader investor risk aversion also weighed on oil with the U.S. dollar jumping to a nine-month high on signs the U.S. Federal Reserve is considering reducing stimulus this year.
"The spread of the Delta variant amid moderating economic growth and the prospects of tighter monetary policy are creating short-term ripples in the commodity market," ANZ commodity analysts said in a note.
"Increasing restrictions on mobility are raising concerns for oil demand." According to Reuters
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
USOIL Daily analysis, Bearish Reversal possibilityHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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The WTI/USD is giving a lot of bearish signs for the next few days movement and has dropped from the 73.81 range and reached 68.16 yesterday, the price has crossed the support line at 70.36 and closed below it which turned that support line into a resistance line now, and that the price of the market is looking bearish for the time being.
A trade through 69.19 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 74.23 will change the main trend to up.
A 3 Black Crow pattern has appeared on the daily chart which usually indicates a bearish reversal.
So we might be seeing 2 Scenarios before this week ends :
Scenario 1 :
The price will drop even more and hit the support line at 66.15, and a battle will happen between the Bears and the Bulls and the Bulls will try to get that control back.
if the Bulls were able to get control over the market then we should be seeing the price bouncing back up to 70.36.
Scenario 2 :
Just like in scenario 1 the price will drop and hit 66.15, but the outcome here will be in favor of the bears and the bulls will not be able to gain control over the market until the price reaches another support line.
If the Bears were able to hold control then we could be seeing the price dropping even more and could be headed for the 61.68 range where the support line will be waiting to be tested.
Technical indicators confirming this bearish movement as we see that :
1) The market price is below the 5 10 20 and 50 MA and EMA (Bullish sign), but still above the 100 and 200 so for the long-term trend we could still see the market Bullish.
2) The MACD crossed the zero line showing the change of the market to a Bullish state, with a negative crossover between the MACD line and the signal line (sell signal)
3) The STOCH is in a Bearish state with a negative crossover between %K and %D, a divergence has been found between the Market price and the Indicator which could indicate a reversal
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 69.27 1) 71.99
2) 67.97 2) 73.41
3) 66.55 3) 74.71
Fundamental point of view :
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower on Wednesday as growing concerns over potential demand destruction in the United States and China, due to the spread of the coronavirus Delta variant, offset potentially bullish geopolitical developments in the Middle East and another draw in domestic oil inventories.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude inventories fell by 879,000 barrels for the week ended July 30. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 717,000 barrels, the data showed.
Official Energy Information Administration numbers are due later on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. Traders are looking for a draw of 3.2 million barrels. According to FXEmpire
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
What i'd love to see on USOIL!Price broke my resistance trendline, turned it to a support then bought. Price is back to my trendline after creating successive lower highs and lowers lows. In confluence with that structure where price currently is on, my first bias is to short till otherwise. Probabilities lets see
US OIL is now BearishThis has been very steadily grinding downwards and is now entering a Bearish environment again. I think this will reject off the lower trendline that it broke yesterday, it is just below this now. From here I have set 3 targets for TP that can either be held or swing traded. If this does reject the trendline mentioned the SL can be just above this. I do think this could drop even further as indicated by the Fibonacci at 0.382 ($46.19) but it is very risky to hold a short and expect it to reach there.