Usoiltrend
USOIL room to go downUSOIL has reached a major resistance at $52 and given that all indicators show that USOIL is currently overbought, I expect some downward movement to previous local maximum $50-49. The 200ema MACD though shows further possibility for upward movement, that's why I set my stance to neutral for the time being and stand by my previous analysis suggesting that oil will go higher in the first 2 quarters of 2017.
Don't miss the remaining opportunities.
We had a 13 days crazy run again and we got a bearish engulf again. I think this time we will pull back to 0.382 again. Here is my reason:
1, we had a repeatable history before, we hit the low, and rise a bit and rally on OPEC meetings. Exactly the same game OPEC has on us. The last time to retrace to 0.382, this time we do. Also take a look at that price, this is where the monster rally begins. The big guys built position before and rallied there, profit at the top and sell also for big profit. They have a lot of power to sell as long as the price is above 46 in this case.
2, the technical chart let everybody sell, overbought in every where. Retails would just get scared. Those who don't, are idiots.
3, there is on immediate impulse for OIL. Rumors will come out because Nov meeting is too far away. They will repeat the same story again. You know the US newspaper are nor free. They are controlled by big money. They are shameless. They can sell their parent, wife, child and soul to appeal money. They would repeat that OPEC has given us to much promise while no actions indeed.
4, the OIL stockpile will rise. We are fortunate enough to have 4(or 5, I forget it) OIL drawback in EIA. It is time to rise because the decade strong hurricane will suppress a lot OIL consuming. You know the hurricane goes to Florida not Texas. I think supply remains.
5, the EMAs. The only EMA I see useful here for OIL is 50EMA as a support(actually it is more complex.). Check it, it is 46!!! What a surprise, right?
6, the breakout in Thursday is a fake! Without a great news, the green candle attack the 50 is the greatest opportunity to sell the OIL. We will not get a lot of power up, it is very obvious.
Based on those 6 reasons, I sold 20% of OIL at Wednesday, then 80% of OIL at Thursday. And I built 20% short position on Thursday and short 80% on Friday.
Disclaim: I am not an expert on trading. You can see I didn't post any. I had a fulltime job (not trading) which makes me enjoy and nice money. I trade because I love the way market works. I feel encouraged when my idea is where the market will go. Post for interest. Let me know if I make critical mistakes in my analysis.
USOIL CRUDE LONG, LONG TERMIn this chart I feel oil is bearish until 37.95, we have here on the daily what seems to be an inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. if prices do reach 37.95 and stay above 37.95, we can see a rally towards 50-51$ and possibly even beyond that.
thus possibly breaking past the downward channel.
keep your eyes peeled for this one.
This does not represent a trade signal, or constitute any form of Investment advice. but rather my ideas on how i view the markets, I am not responsible for any losses or gains made from this. Please use your own discretion
Oil may not be out of the woods yet?There is still the potential for oil to slip to test or drop below the recent lows. After the big drop we had a stutter step and a retracement followed by another big drop. If price disrespects the 4 hr trend line look for a retracement. It is not if, but when and how far. While oil futures are painting a rosy picture price may be being slightly manipulated.
- Iran is back on track and will be pumping out record volume.
- Reserves are at all time records or near enough.
-We are still not using as much as we are producing.
As the higher cost extraction oil will be shut in we will get to a balance. Then we can see prices rise as reserves fall and equilibrium is restored.
On the other hand as a commodity that can be manipulated there is always the chance that the puppet masters can keep the price inflated.
Short OIL on 15 EMA dataIn looking at the recent weeks data and the way the price of Oil has reacted to the 15 EMA I am very very interested in a short, potentially from tomorrows open. I may have a look at the price in the early European session to see if it pushes up to even touch the EMA - just to get the best price. But I would predict a strong decline tomorrow based on the fundamentals of the large rig count increase and the constant fear of the global glut. Today was clearly that bullish day bringing us closer to that EMA, and the slightly positive data I think the overall trade idea should continue to trade this lower and see what the price eventually does around the 38.20% fib. Even possibly the 50%.
Good luck trading out there.
USOIL IntradayPivot: 44.40
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 44.40 with targets @ 46.00 & 46.90 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 44.40 look for further downside with 43.85 & 43.30 as targets.
Comment: a support base at 44.40 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
/CL - Comex Market Analysis and Trading Tips - 28th June 2016Overview:
The Crude oil market had a fairly negative day on Monday, as market continue to worry about all things European Union and United Kingdom related. The primary trend of Crude oil is bearish on charts. On its 4 hourly chart, market is trading below 100 days moving average. It is having important resistance at the level of $48.12 and support level at the level of $46.50. On its 4 hourly charts, MACD is sustaining in its negative territory and RSI is sustaining in its selling zone indicating the upcoming bearish trend in the oil prices. On an intraday basis one can go for sell on higher level strategy.
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USOILPivot: 47.75
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 47.75 with targets @ 49.30 & 50.20 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 47.75 look for further downside with 47.30 & 46.80 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.
Where could we go from here? SUPPORT/RESISTANCERed ~60% most likely
Increasingly bearish but crossing over more resistance lines holds more support in the down eventual down trend.
This shows some choppy trading to come.
CRUDE LONG WEEKLY VIEWWe expect CRUDE to rise.
STOCH RSI is rising.
RSI is rising.
CCI is rising.
We expect crude to stay long above: 34.77 SL: 34.48 TGT 01: 35.59 TGT 02: 35.91 TGT 03:36.91
Caution: The above is our personal view. Neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for trade. Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing.
USOIL ::: SHORT ::: REVERSAL CALLUSOIL is expected to sink now.
There are many reason why we feel it may sink.
01. It is trying to touch Tgt 01. of quarterly short level of 29.66
02. HAMMER in daily Chart.
03. To sink and come near quarterly Tgt 01. sell level of 29.66
04. Stoch RSI (3,3,14,Close) clearly states it may sink.
05. RSI(14,CLOSE) Is also of the same view.
06. CCI(20,CLOSE) Is also sinking.
Keeping all the above indicators in view along with the chart pattern we expect it to sink. Our sell call shall be from sell bellow:31.29 with a SL @: 31.71 Tgt01: 30.06 Tgt02: 29.66 . Please bear in mind this is reversal call. Caution: The above is our personal view. Neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for trade. Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing.
