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Ussteelcorp

X Swing Options Trade Plan 2025-05-23X Swing Analysis Summary (2025-05-23) Model Summaries • Grok/xAI Report – Strongly bullish across 15-min, daily, and weekly timeframes; price above all key EMAs. – RSI overbought (15-min 76.7, daily 81.3, weekly 71.7) and touching upper Bollinger Bands but MACD remains positive. – Positive news catalyst (U.S. Steel/Nippon partnership) and call OI at $55 suggests further upside. – Recommends buying the $55 call (expiry 2025-06-06) at $0.22, 50% profit target to $0.33, stop-loss at $0.11, 80% confidence. • Claude/Anthropic Report – Technicals severely overbought; short-term pullback likely despite fundamental news. – Max pain at $45.50 vs current $53.22 signals mean reversion. – Recommends buying puts, ideally $50 strike, targeting reversion to max pain, 75% confidence. • Llama/Meta Report – Moderately bullish: price well above EMAs, bullish MACD, but overbought RSI/Bollinger Bands and max pain counter-signal. – Recommends buying the $55 call at $0.22, profit target $0.50, stop-loss $0.10, hold up to 10 days, 75% confidence. • DeepSeek Report – Strongly bullish: parabolic move, high-volume news catalyst, price above upper bands. – Recommends buying the $55 call (expiry 6/06) at $0.22, target 100–150% gain ($0.44–$0.55), stop if price closes below $51.97, 80% confidence. • Gemini/Google Report – Moderately bullish: powerful news and momentum outweigh overbought signals in the near term. – Recommends buying the $55 call at market open, entry $0.22–$0.25, profit target $0.44/$0.66, stop-loss $0.11, 70% confidence. Agreements and Disagreements • Agreement: Four of five models favor buying the $55 call for a near-term swing. • Disagreement: Claude advocates a bearish put play ($50 strike) due to extreme overbought conditions and max pain. • Risk view: All acknowledge overbought RSI/Band readings; only Claude sees near-term downside. Conclusion • Overall Market Direction Consensus: Moderately to strongly bullish in the very short term, driven by a major news catalyst and sustained momentum. • Recommended Trade: Buy a single-leg, naked $55 call option expiring 2025-06-06. • Strategy: Naked call purchase. • Expiration: 2025-06-06 (swing‐trade timeframe). • Premium: $0.22 per contract. • Entry Timing: Enter at market open. • Confidence Level: 75% • Key Risks and Considerations: – Severely overbought RSI and price trading above upper Bollinger Bands—risk of pullback. – Elevated VIX and max pain at $45.50 exert downside pressure over the next two weeks. – Low absolute premium and liquidity—wide bid/ask spread potential. – News-driven volatility could reverse if there’s profit-taking or adverse headlines. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "X", "direction": "call", "strike": 55.0, "expiry": "2025-06-06", "confidence": 0.75, "profit_target": 0.44, "stop_loss": 0.11, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.22, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-23 15:51:18 UTC-04:00" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: X 🔀 Direction: CALL (LONG) 🎯 Strike: 55.00 💵 Entry Price: 0.22 🎯 Profit Target: 0.44 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.11 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-06 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 75% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-05-23 15:51:33 EDT Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
NYSE:XLong
by quantsignals
U.S Steel's $14.9 Bln Merger with Nippon Faces White House BlockOverview: U.S. Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion merger with Nippon Steel is facing a major roadblock as President Joe Biden is reportedly set to block the bid, citing national security concerns. This development follows intense scrutiny from the White House, labor unions, and bipartisan political opposition, throwing the future of the deal into uncertainty. Merger Background Nippon Steel, Japan’s leading steelmaker, announced its intention to acquire U.S. Steel in December 2023 with the goal of creating a global steel giant. The proposed $55-per-share offer promised significant enhancements to U.S. Steel’s production capabilities, technological innovation, and overall competitiveness, especially against state-supported competitors like China. Despite these promises, the merger faced hurdles, including regulatory reviews and objections from U.S. labor unions concerned about job security and mill closures. U.S. Steel shareholders supported the merger in April 2024, and regulatory approvals from other countries were secured, but the U.S. approval remained elusive. White House Intervention and National Security Concerns: Two sources familiar with the situation revealed that President Biden plans to block Nippon Steel's acquisition, emphasizing the potential national security risks. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) still needs to make its recommendation, but there’s growing speculation that the President’s stance may influence the committee’s final decision. This situation highlights a significant geopolitical dimension, with the U.S. government wary of foreign influence in critical industries, particularly from non-allied nations. The Biden administration's concern centers on maintaining control over domestic production capabilities vital to national security, especially amid rising tensions with state-backed Chinese competitors. Market Reaction and Investor Concerns: U.S. Steel’s stock experienced a sharp decline, closing at $29.38, which is approximately 47% below Nippon Steel’s $55-per-share offer. This wide deal spread reflects investor skepticism that the merger will proceed. Merger arbitrageurs noted that while CFIUS typically recommends action before the President makes a decision, the current scenario appears reversed, adding to market uncertainty. Frederic Boucher, a merger arbitrage specialist, remarked, “Is the President trying to pressure CFIUS into recommending the deal should be blocked? Investors aren’t waiting for clarification and are exiting quickly.” This sentiment is evident as options trading volume on U.S. Steel surged, reflecting heightened bearish bets on the stock. Potential Impact on U.S. Steel: The failure of the merger poses serious implications for U.S. Steel’s future operations. The company has warned that a collapse could jeopardize thousands of union jobs and lead to the closure of some mills. U.S. Steel also highlighted the potential shift of its Pennsylvania headquarters, a move that could disrupt local economies and the broader U.S. steel industry. Nippon Steel had committed over $2.7 billion in investment in U.S. facilities in Pennsylvania and Indiana, contingent on the deal’s approval. Without the merger, these investments are at risk, further straining U.S. Steel’s ability to modernize and compete globally. Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, U.S. Steel ( NYSE:X ) shares are navigating volatile trading conditions. The stock fell by 17% in extended trading on Wednesday but showed some resilience, rising 2.11% in Thursday’s premarket session. The price movement suggests a potential bullish reversal pattern could emerge if normal trading supports this premarket rally, especially if investor sentiment stabilizes. Outlook: The unfolding situation underscores the complexities of global mergers in strategic industries, particularly when national security considerations are at play. For U.S. Steel, the road ahead is fraught with regulatory hurdles, and the Biden administration’s position is a critical variable that could shape the company’s future trajectory. Investors will need to closely monitor further developments, particularly the CFIUS decision and any official announcements from the White House. As the debate continues, the broader implications for U.S. industrial policy and foreign investments in critical sectors remain a focal point for market participants.
NYSE:X
by DEXWireNews