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COVID-19 2nd bear wave? (DJI wave analysis)Fundamentals: If we consider permanent damage to the economy caused by COVID-19, we should expect a decline in corporate profits, therefore a fundamental devaluation of stocks and a great deal of uncertainty Now the market optimistically bets on fast recovery. Nobody wants to be overboard a rising stock market. This conditions remind me an Elliott Wave B definition. When the markets swiftly recovers from initial big sell off, and everyone is confident that the worst storm is left behind. Price drifts close to previous top or even slightly exceeds it, but then a dramatic sell off occurs. Technical analysis: Wave B (red) looks pretty sluggish. Rather a 3-wave pattern than an active impulse wave. It has driven stock market (DJI) only 10.7% above the top which was set in January 2018. I've discovered that wave (B) is equal to 161.8% of wave (A). A green wave (b) is an assumed result of investors being overoptimistic. Although the recent volumes and STDEV confirm the downward bias/momentum, it's not certain that an assumed wave (b) is finished and soon decline in stocks is inevitable. Forecast: If assumption is right, we should expect a strong decline in stock prices sooner or later. DJI is anticipated to reach 16225-16679 area. PS: I've duplicated the publication so that more investors can see it in the "markets - indices - major world indices - dow30" pass.
TVC:DJIShort
by OleksandrSnitko
COVID-19 2nd bear wave? (DJI wave analysis)Fundamentals: If we consider permanent damage to the economy caused by COVID-19, we should expect a decline in corporate profits, therefore a fundamental devaluation of stocks and a great deal of uncertainty Now the market optimistically bets on fast recovery. Nobody wants to be overboard a rising stock market. This conditions remind me an Elliott Wave B definition. When the markets swiftly recovers from initial big sell off, and everyone is confident that the worst storm is left behind. Price drifts close to previous top or even slightly exceeds it, but then a dramatic sell off occurs. Technical analysis: Wave B (red) looks pretty sluggish. Rather a 3-wave pattern than an active impulse wave. It has driven stock market (DJI) only 10.7% above the top which was set in January 2018. I've discovered that wave (B) is equal to 161.8% of wave (A). A green wave (b) is an assumed result of investors being overoptimistic. Although recent volumes and STDEV confirm the downward bias/momentum, it's not certain that an assumed wave (b) is finished and soon decline in stocks is inevitable. Forecast: If assumption is right, we should expect a strong decline in stock prices sooner or later. DJI is anticipated to reach 16225-16679 area.
FX:US30Short
by OleksandrSnitko
Could the FIS share continue to rise? If So, Lets "Buy"US technology services shares rose strongly despite the demonstrations and protests in The United States of America. FIDELITY NATL INFORMATION SERVICE, known as FIS, stands for a strong bullish rally based on the bottom side of the ascending channel And it was able to form a wide triangle that it broke through. Any return to price at 140, which represents the upper side of the expanding triangle, is a strong opportunity to buy towards the upper side of the ascending channel at price 150
NYSE:FISLong
by TradingFleet
NASDAQ TECH FLEXNDAQ is having a bit of an electric surge and could push ATH (all time highs) amid the pandemic playing out. Tech for the win it seems during times of uncertainty to save the day. Bears are getting a bit of a slaughtering here as many are turning to and being more reliant on technology than ever before. A forethought is that smart money in other US markets will leave these stagnate companies to flow into high tech tech firms, due to FOMO thus NASDAQ will hit ALL TIME HIGHS. Keep in mind that this also makes the economy look stronger yet soo many more are staggery than ever before since the start of 2020 due to the flow on effects of covid and the recession that no one is clearly speaking about that’s been teeter totting since mid last year. (You can’t polish a turd)
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by LandenInternational
US Markets Testing Previous Highs Normal Economic Sentiment:The following below remains, however S&P and DJI are testing the previous high. If these markets break this I’ve added a safety point on which I will deem these market have revered from the cover turmoil and it’s ‘business at usual’, the FED will most probably still have that money printer going Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr though… VERY BEARISH if the following transpires before breaking the above safety points: S&P: If P action closes below the orange line at 2723.3 attention will turn more bearish and watch for market to fall to 2460.2. In this instance will reassess market dynamics as it may bounce in this range or continue to fall Dow: The same flows for Dow Jones with P action closes below the orange line at 22931.5 attention will turn more bearish and watch for market to fall to 20842.4. In this instance will reassess market dynamics as it may bounce in this range or continue to fall If markets stay above these initial levels for the next 3 months (i’ll be surprised) however this will look like economies are back in order from COVID-19 and running ‘normal economics’
TVC:SPX
by LandenInternational
SHOPIFY INC| One of The Most Top Dog Stock| 27th Apr 2020"When movement control order period extended, any related online is boosted.." -Zezu Zaza Webinar 22nd April 2020 The best part in online business is you can do your business worldwide without any restraint. One of my most profitable stock trading. People highlighted to you about this stock. Why? Because it is not popular compare to biotech stock or trending pharma stock right now. People still using online business and e-commerce to make income or selling product online. This is why when MCO extended, this stock skyrocketing. Just because all people in the world using their service and pumped up with volume. If you love this stock, please also look to other e-commerce stock as well. Most of e-com out there are right now skyrocketing. Watch the Amazon right now and JD.com. I am sure you will love to trade this stock as e-commerce stock is one of my favourite stock to trade after biotech and others. Our MCO has been extended until 12th May 2020. Trump not yet to re-open the economy. Just ride the bandwagon. Btw, this stock earning report will come on 6th May 2020. So standby. Most of spike will occurred as soon as the earning report release to public. Thanks. Regards, Zezu Zaza 2048
NYSE:SHOP
by Zezu_Zaza
2
Wall Street Stays FlatUS stocks have not seen any major changes this week, staying uncharacteristically calm despite headlines such as the oil price crash. The Dow Jones gained 457 points on its Wednesday session, a jump of 2%. It is now trading at 23,400 points on the hourly chart. Likewise, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices saw similar gains, climbing 2.3% and 2,8%, respectively. However, this is most likely as investors are also still awaiting news such as this week’s jobless claims data. Latest predictions expect around 4.2 million new unemployment claims to be filed, bringing the total up to 26 million claims in just 5 weeks. Likewise, the US Senate just passed another bill to aid in the fight against the coronavirus in the State. After weeks of negotiations, the Senate passed a $500 billion bill in order to help small businesses, and it is expected to go to the House of Representatives later this week. This news did give some relief to the stock markets, as they now look to extend their gains for the second session in a row. But there are reasons to continue being bearish about the stock market. Investors are vying for stocks to gain momentum again, with news such President Trump pushing state governors to ease their lockdowns and begin reopening their state borders again. However, reopening so early, before the virus is under control, poses the risk of a wave of new infections flooding in. This poses the risk of causing more damage to the economy in the long term. Despite Trump’s eagerness to reopen the economy and start recovering the damage that virus has caused the stock market, the opposite could end up happening if he pulls the trigger too soon.
U
by BlackBull_Markets
US Stocks Market — Corona Bulls In Charge?Hello! Dear dear friends, brothers, sisters, hodlers, scalpers, swingers, bulls and bears! I want to share with you idea about US stock market before it opens in Monday In less than 20 hours. Fist of all, I am looking at technical points, and price action. But can we spend few mins to think about next: Who going survive after this crisis? (I mean companies) First of all the price of SP500 is based on top US stocks, so means by that, most of these companies will survive as they are basically giants... Even if some of them in "frozen" or limp mode, after get used to quarantine and new order, they will run in full power. Jobless claims exceed 20 million in four weeks, inflicting a toll on the labor force not seen since the Great Depression. Okay that is what it is, many people are out of their jobs, for many reasons for sure, and after some period of time I believe we going to find the way-out, and everyone will get it’s place in new order. Let's step away from corona bullshit and start think what is going on with chart and price. Few important notices I put on chart: 3000 basic and strong resistance for big period of time. Now we going to challenge it. Monday opening will show what force bulls and bears have. 2650 is another important level for bulls as it Is possible invalidator of impulse wave setup. 2300 is bears gap — if we going to revisit this zone, I will start to worry for real ;) DISCLAIMER: If you following somebody with good Risk/Reward and Win Ratio. Without risk management and allowing yourself to lose some trades, you won’t be good trader/investor. Please don’t follow any analyst blindly on this website. Always use stop loss to prevent yourself from losses. Make sure you understand and afford the risk. Please. ATTENTION: Dear followers please consider to appreciate my ideas on tradingview with your likes, this will help bring more quality content in next trading ideas. And if new to my work, and you like it, you can Follow my page to receive ideas in your Ideas Stream. Thanks 🤝😊 Stay tuned to Artem Crypto
TVC:SPX
by ArShevelev
2
S&P 500 | The Current Pump Might Be Over?Hi, After dropping around 2200, the price of the S&P 500 got a pretty decent pump upwards. The pump has been pretty strong but technically, it looks like it might find an end because the current resistance is quite heavy for those kinds of market situations. I will say that in the next weeks the S&P 500 price may start to correct back downwards. A lot of unemployees, a lot of questions and etc. The fundamental research is your decision but for me, as technical analysts, it looks like the current price area can start a correction back to the lower levels. From the current price action I cannot say how low it can go but for those who are looking entries for stocks - you can wait, you will get those needed stocks with a better price than they are right now. Technical criteria for the correction downwards are: 1) AB=CD equal waves from this year's bottom and the D point is inside the red box. 2) Fibonacci retracement 62%, known as a Golden Ratio and it is also a pretty strong resistance indication inside the red box. 3) Fibonacci Extension 162% lands into the marked rejection area. 4) The 2018 high can play an important role inside of it, to add strength to the mentioned resistance zone. 5) Simply, the strong price level marked as an orange horizontal line. It has been a clean resistance, it has been clean support and definitely it shows that investors might be interested in this level. 6) Daily EMA 100&200 are playing an important role inside of the strong resistance zone which stays between 2850-3000 7) Weekly EMA 50&100 acts as resistance levels. 8) Just in case the round number 3000. It is the final level of this box which can act as resistance but at the moment I don't think it might reach there for a while - obviously never know ;) So, a lot of signs from the recent price action are pointed to the marked red box which can produce a short-, mid-term retracement downwards. As said, for those who like to jump into a current "Bull run", do not Do your own research and please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You! Regards, Vaido
SP:SPXShort
by VaidoVeek
8
Dow Jones - Macro OutlookWelcome to the first of my macro market ideas. My goal is to have a post for each market sector to give you a long term perspective of the given asset class, so that you are able to drill down to smaller time frames and make wise and calculated trades. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has market data on TradingView going all the way back to 1915. Since the Dow is the most mature index for US stocks, it is inherently the market leader. Having a long term grasp on where the Dow Jones is headed will tell you where we are in the market cycle, and help you understand when it is a good time to long or short stocks. I will update this thread on a monthly and sometimes weekly basis with my current perspective on where price is headed. While there are many political and economic factors that impact the Dow, I will do my best to keep this thread purely technical in nature. Please feel free to leave a comment below with any questions at all. I am happy to answer. Best Regards, Micah J Miller
DJ:DJI
by micahjmiller
S&P500 | Does History Repeat Itself?Hi, Do be honest, I discovered this "pattern" at the beginning of January and I presented this at the local conference of investment. At this time I didn't know it could happen SO fast, it was just a simple coincidence, but now it has come reality - the price of SP500 has started to approach super-aggressively old strong resistance levels which now becomes support! Those resistance levels are 2000 and 2007 yearly highs. Two times within one decade the price found resistance from the same price levels. The resistance in 2000 pushed the price down and the price falls 50% from the peak. If you have seen my previous ideas about stocks then there is a "The club of 50%". It means if the price falls 50% from the last clean high (it would be better if it starts to fall from all-time high) then this price level starts to act as a strong support level, the support level "window" will stay between 47%-53% from the top. Example: from $200 to $100 and this $100 will act as a strong support). ...and here is a perfect example - the downwards movement which started in 2000, found a support level exactly after it dropped 50% from the top and the climb continued. The climb continued until the price reached to 2000 yearly high in 2007, another crisis has started, the price starts to fall and we got another confirmation that 1500-1700 is a super strong resistance level. After the tiny all-time high in 2007, the price starts to fall and again it founds a support level after the price is reached into "The club of 50%", it dropped 52% and perfectly matching with our 50% club window which was 47%-53% from the last peak. ....and the climb continued, another confirmation that those 50% drops are pretty powerful support levels. This climb which started in 2009 guided us to the longest and craziest bull run ever. Obviously, now it is over and we have a big question, where is the bottom of this crisis?? Where is the bottom, technically!? Fast education: 1. The old clean resistance level becomes a support level. 2. A bit more specific but long-term Fibonacci levels are really powerful, and the most powerful Fibonacci retracement level is 62%, known as the Golden Ratio! 3. 50% drop from the all-time high starts to act as a support level (the window was 47%-53%) Adding those criteria to the chart: 1. We have a super-powerful resistance level from the last decade. Two times, in 2000 and 2007, the price got a rejection from 1500-1700. The third time was a successful attempt and it guided the SP500 into the all-time-bull-run. After the breakout, this strong resistance level becomes a support level and as said previously, the price has started to approach it super-aggressively. So, the first major stop should stay between 1500-1700. 2. The Fibonacci Golden Ratio of 62% is waiting for the price around the same area as talked on the previous point, definitely adding strength to the mentioned support level. 3. The price fall, which began in 2000, found support after a 50% drop. The price fall, which began in 2007, found support after it dropped 52%. Now, from the all-time high to the previously discovered strong support area (1500-1700) is ~52%!!! Long story short: start building your portfolio after the S&P500 has reached to the major support around 1500-1700! :) Hopefully, it was helpful. Hopefully, it was informative and if you agree with me then hit the "LIKE" button! :) Best regards, Vaido
SP:SPX
by VaidoVeek
28
The week results: the epidemic & the Friday bloodbathThe past week has so far been considered the most eventful of the last few months. And the point is not even in the number of new events that took place, but in the price dynamics in the financial markets. One of the strongest drops in the US stock market in history (during the week Nasdaq lost up to 15% of its capitalization), the Fear Index grew almost three times, the oil decreased by almost 20%. The culmination was a natural "blood bath", which was arranged by traders in the financial markets on Friday, when, for example, gold was reduced by $80 during the day. How did markets get to such a life? We wrote about this quite actively for more than six months and now we are faced with the results of those temporary bombs that were planted. Epidemic coronavirus is still able to be a "black swan", which freed all the energy that accumulated markets. More precisely, not all, because it is still only in the process of development. The main event of the past week - the coronavirus epidemic ceased to be a local problem in China and became a global disaster (the number of newly diagnosed cases outside China steadily exceeded the number of cases in China). It was after this that investors became completely scared. And if the week began with the fact that the problems were in South Korea, Japan, Italy, and Iran, then it ended with a radical expansion of the list. Now it has the USA, France, Germany, Spain, Great Britain, Singapore, Malaysia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and many others. The total number of cases in the world over the week has grown significantly and has already exceeded 7,000. Naturally, now no one has any doubts that the world economy will suffer and will suffer very much. Out of habit, everyone turned their eyes to the Central Banks, which have recently been playing the role of traditional savers of the economy. Fed Chairman Powell said at the end of last week that the US Central Bank is ready to act. Accordingly, the markets instantly rebuilt their expectations and now assess the probability of a rate cut in March at 100%. Typically, 95% of traders expect a decline of 0.5%. So the problems of the dollar on Thursday and Friday are generally understandable. One side. On the other hand, other central banks, in particular the ECB, may also lower rates. Thus, we continue to consider the growth of the EURUSD pair abnormal and this week will be very active in selling the euro against the US dollar. Not forgetting, of course, about the feet. In general, in the current conditions, when the most terrible volatility has increased many times, a trader can do it - work without stops and try to impose his will on the market. So we’ll definitely put the stops - it’s better to re-enter the position when the dust settles, rather than stand against the market and lose the deposit in one day, essentially out of the blue. What else do we plan to do this week? Definitely buy gold and at the same time buy a pair of USDJPY. It’s a kind of under-hedge on safe-haven assets that did absolutely nothing on Friday, but we believe that the markets will return to some semblance of rationality and this hedge will work. This week, we are inclined to start buying oil, because a) the achievement of the $ 44 mark for the WTI brand corresponds to our goals, which we announced when it was still in the region of $ 60; b) OPEC is seriously concerned about what is happening, and this week there will be a meeting within the framework of which amendments may be made to the OPEC+ agreement - they announce an additional reduction in oil production by 1 million BPD. It is very serious. But again, these purchases are a rather risky attempt to catch a U-turn, which is not yet available. So we advise fans to take risks, do not forget about the stops, and we recommend that conservative traders put the oil trade on hold or at least wait until the end of the week and OPEC's decision.
Short
by Trade24Fx
S&P 500 versus GoldThe 1.5-year-old declining resistance line (magenta) has proven too strong for the 4 year rising support (blue) which was broken just last week due to the record drop in the US indices. The drop was due to a combination of a market that had been overzealous and priced to perfection in an increasingly deteriorating economic environment. The coronavirus certainly added fear to the markets as it is looking increasingly likely that the service sector globally is going to get hit pretty hard in the coming months. This break-down of a 5-year consolidation, especially with an initial fake breakdown and fake breakout attempt, appears to be hinting at gold outperformance over stocks over the next 12-24 months. The ratio needs to continue putting in lower highs and lower lows to validate the gold>SPX thesis. Central banks response to the carnage in stock markets is going to tell us a lot. How stocks and gold respond to the shift in monetary policy will also be extremely valuable data. I want to stress that with this SPX to Gold Ratio, SPX/XAUUSD ratio, is that we don't know if this pattern is going to break higher or break lower. Breaking higher into a hyper mania similar to 2000 Dotcom is still possible, the next few months will be telling us, but it's also possible we're near the limit that this current stock bubble can maintain. Rates and economic growth were a lot higher in the 90s which you could argue enabled/justified the massive overvaluation. And by many measures (not at all) the current markets are the most overstretched that they've ever been. For example value versus growth is the most skewed its ever been in favor of growth. Commodities are basing at 40-year lows. The gold mining sector versus their own product is the most undervalued it has ever been. If you think gold has the potential to rise 20%, 50%, 150% or more in the coming 1-5 years, then a position in both the metal and the mining sector is a no brainer. Utilizing funamdental and technical analysis we can find the best companies and make timely and strategic purchases over time. Your odds of making a profit are better when you buy something when it is cheaper than normal. Everyone's piling into what's done well for the past several years - that's classic momentum investing and can cost you dearly if we're near a significant top in US indices. I much prefer buying things when they're on fire sale. Be watching how central banks respond and how gold and spx respond to the central banks. This multi-year triangle consolidation is coming to an end and when these triangles breakout in a direction, it is not uncommon for it to be followed by extremely volatile moves in the direction of the breakout that can last for years.
TVC:SPXShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
2
SPX: VIX close to 30 level some infosHi Guys, in absolute terms, VIX values greater than 30 are generally linked to a large volatility resulting from increased uncertainty, risk and investors’ fear. VIX values below 20 generally correspond to stable, stress-free periods in the markets. www.investopedia.com Since the beginning of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis, VIX exceeded 30 level during the European Debt Crisis culminating with Greece Bailout. en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org When VIX is high is time to buy? Please share your views or comment and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
TVC:SPX
by cozzamara
How close is the US stock market to repeat 1987?On October 19, 1987, the United States stock market fell the most in its entire history. The Dow Jones Index lost almost 23%. This event went down in history as “Black Monday”. For traders and investors, this event became a kind of guideline when the situation develops according to the scenario “there is nowhere worse”. Formally, that Monday was not much different from any other day, that is, there was no super-event that would trigger that flash crash. The point is the general accumulated fatigue of the market, which has long been ready for it to breakthrough. And it burst through. The US stock market now in its state is somewhat reminiscent of the one that was on the eve of Black Monday. There are 4 key features of the US stock market in 1987: 1. The market has shown the strongest growth in recent years. 2. The market is euphoric. 3. Sharp drops in price dynamics became more frequent on the eve of “Black Monday”. 4. The negative effects of financial innovation. If you look at what is happening today in the US stock market, then with one degree or another degree of confidence, you can check the box at 1, 2 and 4 points. Point number 1. From the beginning of 1987 until August 1987, the Dow Jones Index soared 44%. At the same time, over the previous 5 years, it has grown by 265%. The Dow soared 44% from the beginning of 1987 to its peak on August 25, 1987. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 265% in the five years ending August 1987, suggesting reinvested dividends. In 2019, the Nasdaq Index grew by 42%, while over the past 5 years, the growth exceeded 200% As you can see, the situations are very similar. Point number 2. Worse measurable. But in 1987, after decades of growth, it was believed that the stock market could only grow. To date, there are various metrics (for example, CNN's Fear and Greed Index) that allow you to quantify the level of greed in the stock market. So, by the end of 2019, the level of greed reached historic highs. Point number 4. In 1987, one of the reasons for the flash crash was the automatic execution of stop losses, which provoked a panic wave and significantly increased its effectiveness. The situation today looks many times more vulnerable. According to various estimates, up to 80% of transactions in the stock market are performed automatically (by computers). The total for a full analogy is lacking only strong downward movements. On the eve of Black Monday in 1987, the US stock market lost 10%, depriving investors of confidence in themselves and the market and creating the prerequisites for a full-fledged panic. Given that over the past couple of sessions, stock markets have dipped 3-4%, it seems that the circle is closing. Thus, the basic prerequisites have already been created. It remains to bring investors and traders to their senses and return them to the ground, and then a full correction will become inevitable. Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx