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Ustreasurybonds

Opportunity to buy US Treasuries and a failing fiat system?The 2/10 treasury yield spread is approaching an inversion. All of the previous yield curve inversions were associated with catastrophic event many of which stemming out of a fiat monetary system that seems very obviously to be failing. We are seeing the failing fiat monetary system if we look at the amount of money being created out of thin air by the FED (and ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan). The FED is expected to raise interest rates at its May 3-4, 2022 meeting. More rate hikes are expected to follow, with the goal of reducing inflation. The markets anticipate that the federal funds rate will exceed 3% by early 2023. The dollar is showing great strength across other leading currencies. If you invest in treasury you can get a fair interest rate of 3% (and assuming with more rate hikes even more), as US treasuries bond are available at a great rebate. Do consider the currency devaluation possible if your base living currency is not the USD.
TVC:US10Y
by CarpeMomentum
Bond yields in the era of high inflationAs you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as all kinds of maturities are rising at the same time and are rising pretty fast. The trend is showing no signs of exhaustion and this could get pretty ugly for the world economy, as the Fed has barely raised rates so far and they are threatening to raise rates by 0.5% at every meeting in 2022. Many analysts claim that the bond market is broken and that yields will rise even further, but are they correct? Well the truth is that the way bond market topped (yields bottomed) in March 2020 is definitely an indication that a bull market is over. Currently the market has broken below most major support lines and seems to be accelerating rather than decelerating, while the correction from the peak is indicating that the bull market is over, as during bull markets corrections tend to stay within a certain range, and this correction is way larger than any previous corrections. At the same time the 2y year yields are above 2.5%, a level that they 'shouldn't' have broken if the bond bull was intact. The reason behind this is that usually 2y bond yields would never go above the peak of the Fed Funds Rate and during the last hiking cycle the FFR had peak at 2.5%. Currently the 2y yields look like the formed the perfect round bottom (bullish technical pattern) and have broken above their downwards channel and could also be headed higher in the medium to long term (an indication that the bond bull could be over). However not everything is really bearish for bonds at the moment and there is some hope for the bull market, even if that means we only get a strong bounce before going lower. As the 10y and 30y yields haven't broken above their resistance levels yet, it might be a good time to start buying bonds. Why? Well as yields are at resistance, bonds are close to support. The actual bonds are so oversold, that the current move might be getting totally irrational. Yes inflation is going up, yes inflation could go higher and inflation expectations keep rising, but the rate of inflation could come down. Not only that, but the Fed is so trapped that everyone knows they can't really raise rates much more or sell bonds without breaking the market. Financial conditions have already tightened so much, that investors will eventually run to the safety of bonds which finally have a pretty attractive yield. Of course my reasoning doesn't just rely on some random fundamental analysis, but also some technical factors. The first one has to do with how this break of the trendline could be a trap and this move is headed straight into a very important area in which there is strong support. On TLT there is a major gap at an area that was support, it was broken and then the market quickly closed back above it. That's the perfect place to go long. The second one has to do with the fact that the yield curve had inverted and has now un-inverted itself. Usually inversions happen close to the bottom of the bond market (peak in yields) and therefore this could be another useful signal that a bottom isn't far away. Again this doesn't mean that someone has to go long right now or go long big, just that maybe its time to cut down shorts and put on some small longs. Personally I like to move between being a bond bull or bear based on the data and not have dogmatic views about what will happen in the future. Finally I'd like to talk a bit about junk bonds, which are at the same level they were when the Fed had raised rates at 2.5% and kept saying that they would keep hiking. With so much debt in the world, the Fed threatening to keep hiking rates and the global economy being in shambles due to Covid-19, aging demographics, supply chain issues, lockdowns in China, the Russia-Ukraine war and commodity shortages, it is hard for someone to really see how owning junk bonds is a good long term bet here. Shorting junk bonds is probably the best bet someone could take at this stage, if he/she believes that there is going to be a major collapse either in the stock market or the bond market. What I find very interesting is how resilient American companies have proven to be, and how after so many major crashes since 2008, now junk bonds are rallying against treasuries. By looking at the HYG/TLT ratio, we can see how they have outperformed since the March 2020 crash, potentially due to how much the US government has support those companies and how much more the private sector has benefited from low rates and money printing compared to the public sector. By adding to the mix how strong stocks have been over the last 2 years despite all the negative events, we can make sense of why junk bonds are outperforming us treasuries. Maybe this is also a major sign that buying stocks is a much better idea in the long term than buying bonds, and that the stock bull market is still intact, but that's a topic which I will discuss in another idea. In conclusion, the bond bull could be over. There are several signs indicating extreme weakness in bonds as inflation expectations keep rising and the Fed is unwilling to support the bond market. Yet we are at levels that not buying bonds seems like the wrong decision, even if buying them would only for a short time period only.
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro
US10Y approaching a structured topThe US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has been trading within a Channel Up since the early August low. The price is currently way above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and after a strong rally it is now within a structured Channel Up. The pattern resembles the October structured Channel Up, which led to a top and pull-back back below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Assuming this stands again, we should be expecting a top by the end of next week. In any case, if the 1.695 Support breaks earlier, the target would be the 1D MA200. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
2
📚#e⏭️06 : Ultra Bond Futures Are Super Boring🥱💤Don't Click💡💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money Yes💡 Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role : To Correctly Price The Value Of Future Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably We Win The Game We Have Kept The Flame🔥 We Have Served A Most Important Mission We Fulfill A Founders Vision d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Regardless Of Trade Size Only Pay Spread Fee As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Quarterly Rollover Spread Only Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader In Time On Time Every Time Same As Any Business 📔 Rules Of The Rodeo Trend Is Dearest Life-Long Friend Bond Bull Market 40 Years Strong So We Will Mostly Trade Long Positions Actively Managed Entry Orders Executed At The Market Trading 0.01 Unit At A Time ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Starblazers 🌠 Dreamscapers 🧙🏼‍♂️ Rebellion 🧗🏻‍♀️ Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery Utilising The Instruments Symbolising Our Servitude Slaves Become Masters Masters Serve Slaves Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 US 30 Year Yields📊 CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y 📚#e04 : 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
33
📚🎬💎#e08 : An Ultra Bond Future💍Married To The⛪💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course Money But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money The Cost Of Money Cost Of Money Yes💡 Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role : To Correctly Price The Value Of Future Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably We Win The Game We Have Kept The Flame🔥 We Have Served A Most Important Mission We Fulfill A Founders Vision💜 d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Regardless Of Trade Size Only Pay Spread Fee As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Quarterly Rollover Spread Only Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader In Time On Time Every Time Same As Any Business Ventured C4L 📔 Rules Of The Rodeo Trend Is Dearest Life-Long Friend Bond Bull Market 40 Years Strong So We Will Mostly Trade Long Positions Actively Managed Entry Orders Executed At The Market Trading 0.01 Unit At A Time Slow Drip💧 ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Keep Your Bond⚔️ Watch Your Loyalty⌚ Buy Freedom To🔥 0.96 % x Cost ♋ Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 ☔ 📚#e07🩸GG : 📚#e⏭️06 : 📚#e04 : 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 : CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y Pluto 🛰️ Hndrxx 👩🏻‍🎤
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
13
📚#e04 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money Yes This Is True Bet You Didn't Know That Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role Is To Correctly Price The Cost Of Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably Our Roles Are Fulfilled ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Only Pay Spread Fee Regardless Of Trade Size As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader Over Time Same As Any Business d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Starblazers 🌠 Dreamscapers 🧙🏼‍♂️ Rebellion 🧗🏻‍♀️ Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery Utilising The Instruments Symbolising Our Servitude Slaves Will Topple Masters Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 US 30 Year Yields📊 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 : CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
42
US10Y Close to a major bearish move towards July's lowsI haven't updated my 10Y Bond Yield outlook in almost a month, ever since calling the top and the potential of a bearish reversal: The top successfully took place and the rejection gave way to the reversal on which the price has been trading until now. The similarities with the March - May formation remain and have even become stronger. As you see there is a Triangle pattern on both which in June it broke aggressively to the down side turning the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into its Resistance until late August. Right now the 1D MA50 is supporting. If the price breaks below it and gets rejected there (turning it into a Resistance) on the first test, then I expect the US10Y to targe the 1.125 Support. Until then, we are trading sideways within the Triangle. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
2
US10Y Signs of a bearish reversal.The US10Y has reached (and so far got rejected on) the 1.707 Resistance (1), which last time rejected the price on May 13. With the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (is on Lower Highs while the actual price is on Higher Highs), similarities can be made with the February 25 - March 30 sequence, which after an RSI Bearish Divergence got rejected on the 1.775 Resistance (2) and essentially started the correction towards the 1.125 Support. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and if broken the 0.618 level which may be even more likely as it is the top of the recent High Volatility Cluster. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
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CBOT:ZB1!Long
by hadimozayan
Bond yields keep fallingBonds all across the world, across all different spectrums (from gov bonds to junk bonds) have been rising (their yields falling). This is a signal that there are deflationary pressures and that people are searching for yield in an environment with few opportunities. There are other reasons too, but overall this isn't the best signal. Clearly big corporations and governments are benefiting from the situation, but this is also a fragile situation. Although the current conditions benefit some stocks and risk assets due to the highly negative real rates, this doesn't mean that everything is perfect. Personally I believe equities haven't topped and they have much more room to grow from here, but I also think a big correction isn't far away (10-20%). In my opinion bond bulls are in control (bearish on yield) and yields could fall even lower.
TVC:US10YShort
by BitcoinMacro
5
DJIA/Gold Ratio & 30-year Bonds/Russell2000 in Phase Transition!The Dow Jones (IA) / Gold Ratio and the U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds / Russell2000 Index Ratio are coinciding at key levels. Both ratios are at historic turning points, foreshadowing their respective Phase Transitions! (and as such, indicating highly volatile, multi-standard deviation moves in the global equity indexes.) The title chart is an extended (120 years) view of the ongoing DJIA / Gold analysis, this time applying the same metric as used in the earlier US 30-year Treasuries / Russell2000 Ratio analysis; ... For easy comparisons. U.S. Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP now having exceeded 2.75 while the Historic Norm (not the low) remains 0.78 - i.e. ~70% below current levels(!!) - , it is rather self-evident that these phase transitions are likely to result in major (equity) market declines, and on a global scale. U.S. Margin Debt / U.S. GDP has also surpassed all previous, historic records (by a very wide margin!), not only in nominal measures but also in relative terms! I.e. Once this trap door opens (forced liquidations??... The most likely, least resistance path, catalyst) an initial 20%-25% decline in the SP500 would be well within the minimum expected.
TVC:DJI
by Nemo_Confidat
22
US GOV BONDS 10 YR YIELD - TREND REVERSAL IN PROGRESS...M1 : Long term picture is showing a failure to breakout the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 1.8060 % , high seen being 1.7740 % Price action seen during February and March is showing, first of all, a breakout of the Mid Bollinger Band, which was at that time @ 1.1460% in February which has been confirmed by a second breakout of the Kijun-Sen line which was at that time in March @ 1.5660 (same level now). Therefore, on a monthly view and on a closing basis a move below 1.5660 would trigger further downside move. W1 : Price action seen over the last couple of weeks is showing some lack of momentum; indeed after a succession of white candles we can see a clear break of the upside movement which triggered a sideways price action with a bearish engulfing pattern which took place last week Trigger level on this time frame is @ 1.5890 (see D1 comment below) D1 : Currently in a bearish (yield) mode price action. Mid Bollinger band is under attack with already one closing price below it. A failure to hold above 1.5890 would confirm a double top pattern in opening the door for a technical target of 1.4040% which is currently the middle zone of the daily clouds support !
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848