US10Y continues to rise inside a long term Channel Up, with its 1D technical outlook bullish (RSI = 57.618, MACD = 29.942, MACD = 0.116). The 1D RSI though is for the first time in the recent months under a LH bearish divergence so for the first time the probabilities for a bearish reversal get stronger. Consequently, if the price crosses under the Channel's...
• 2s30s spread : The US2US30 spread refers to the yield spread between the 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The chart visualizes the difference, or spread, in yield for these two bonds over time. The 2-year bond represents more of the short-term outlook, whereas the 30-year bond is more indicative of long-term expectations. So, when people refer to the...
First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up. US1Y: Bullish US2Y: Bullish US5Y:...
Just a quick chart on the 10-year yield . Long-term we will see if it can make the next swing high level of 5.10%. I doubt the FED have the conviction to get there quickly.!
The blue line area shows the historic and current FED's Fund Rate. Looking back in the past it appears the US10Y (yellow line) is predictive of FED's fund rate upper target (orange arrows). The US3M (turquoise line) seems to be a good indicator to get a feeling for the FED's fund rate short-term up or downward trend. In the FOMC Summary of Economic Projections...
The 2/10 treasury yield spread is approaching an inversion. All of the previous yield curve inversions were associated with catastrophic event many of which stemming out of a fiat monetary system that seems very obviously to be failing. We are seeing the failing fiat monetary system if we look at the amount of money being created out of thin air by the FED (and...
As you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as...
WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE which broke up and close @ 2.5890 on a weekly basis above the former high @ 2.5160 reached a year ago in March 2021. RSI @ 70.85 is not converging therefore there is a potential BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN PROGRESS ! On the other hand, the LAGGING LINE is far away above the TS, KS and the...
WEEKLY (W1) Looks like a corrective move which should, for the time being, be seen as a consolidation phase or pullback towards the triangle pattern breakout level ! Indeed, looking at the weekly picture, we can identify two important support levels, which are the following : S1 : 1.7960 (Tenkan-Sen) also roughly the 38.2% Fib ret (@ 1.7850 % of the last...
TREND REVERSAL CONFIRMED ON THE DAILY CHART !!! Price action, acceleration upside move, seen over the last couple of days confirmed the trend reversal, calling for higher levels.(Pullback failure attempt) Indeed, the former daily downtrend line resistance has been broken and has also been confirmed by the Chico.span price action. RSI above 50 @ 69 Only a...
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I haven't updated my 10Y Bond Yield outlook in almost a month, ever since calling the top and the potential of a bearish reversal: The top successfully took place and the rejection gave way to the reversal on which the price has been trading until now. The similarities with the March - May formation remain and have even become stronger. As you see there is a...
Looking quickly to the intraday time frames H15 and M15, bearish divergences in progress. watch carefully ongoing price action over the coming hours which will help you to validate or invalidate on one hand the breakout of the 1.6000 area and the potential double top in progress too. Ironman8848
M1 : Ongoing bearish (yield) price action, currently below KS. W1 : Ongoing breakout progress of the MBB important support level (1.5160) D1 : Currently below the clouds and testing the bottom line support of the ongoing downtrend channel H4 : Far below the clouds area and below all indicators, (KS, MBB and TS) H1 : Failure to recover above the clouds (1.5320)...
M1 : Ongoing bearish (yield) donwtrend in progress ! W1 : Currently below TS and still above MBB. Watch 1.4840 ahead of 1.3240, the latter being the key pivot levels on this time frame. D1 : Roughly in the middle level of an ongoing donwtrend channel, within the clouds Watch carefully at the bottom of the clouds. A daily closing below the clouds (around the 1.5000...
If price action remains in Uptrend channel.
The Canadian dollar has lost ground for a second straight day. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2634, up 0.35% on the day. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a high of 1.2674, its highest level since March 10th. It's been a quiet start to the week for USD/CAD, with no Canadian events. That will change on Wednesday, with the release of Canada's GDP for January....
The dollar pulled back from a 3-month high and found support at neckline 91.44 after erasing the week's gain. The dollar was under pressure as the US bond yield rally halted. However, the pullback was shallow and it soon returned to 1.6% and a little breakthrough took place before the market closed. Therefore, the dollar may continue to climb on technical...