CADCHF bearish due to weak oil prices
Bearish CADCHF as Downbeat Crude Oil Prices Put Pressure on the Canadian Dollar
The CADCHF exchange rate is currently trading at 0.671, down from its high of 0.703 in early September. This bearish trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks and months as downbeat crude oil prices put pressure on the Canadian dollar.
Canada is a major exporter of oil, so its currency is closely correlated with the price of oil. When oil prices fall, the Canadian dollar tends to follow suit. This is because oil is a major source of revenue for the Canadian economy, and a decline in oil prices weakens the demand for Canadian exports.
Crude oil prices have been falling in recent weeks due to a number of factors, including concerns about a global recession and rising interest rates. These factors are likely to continue to weigh on oil prices in the coming months, which will put further pressure on the Canadian dollar.
As a result, investors should be bearish on the CADCHF exchange rate in the near term. There is a high probability that the CADCHF will continue to decline towards 0.650 or even lower in the coming weeks and months.
Here are some key factors that could support further weakness in the CADCHF:
Continued decline in crude oil prices: If oil prices continue to fall, it will put further pressure on the Canadian dollar and the CADCHF.
Rising interest rates in the United States: The US Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. This will make the US dollar more attractive to investors, putting further downward pressure on the CADCHF.
Weaker economic outlook for Canada: The Canadian economy is facing a number of headwinds, including rising inflation and interest rates. This could lead to a slowdown in economic growth, which would further weaken the Canadian dollar and the CADCHF.
Investors who are bearish on the CADCHF should consider selling CADCHF short or buying USDCHF long. However, it is important to note that the CADCHF is a volatile currency pair, so traders should use appropriate risk management strategies.
Usyield
This chart pattern suggests yields are going higherUS10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow.
But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation. Granted, there are one or two of those engulfing candles that do not fit the exact description (as an open or close is out be a few ticks, meaning it has not truly engulfed). But we've relaxed the rules to note bullish candles that show clear range expansion over the prior candle.
And if that pattern persists, it looks like the 10-year yield (and likely yields across the curve) are at least going to make an attempt to retest or break their cycle highs.
US yield curve down by 80% this yearSince the start of the year, the US yield curve (10y-2y) is down by a whopping 80%. While the Canadian 10y-2y curve is not far behind (-75%). The market is buying into the thesis that both CBs got ahead of themselves. Interesting to see NZ curve barely budged since early Q2.