Foreign markets have made some headlines in recent months. The German Dax and French CAC 40 hit record levels toward the end of 2023. Those indexes are generally priced in local currency, and a rising dollar in 2023 led to relative underperformance among US-traded ETFs. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has consolidated around the key 104 level lately. Amid this FX...
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has gotten off to a rip-roaring start to 2024. Up more than 2% on the year, the greenback’s ascent comes after significant declines over the final handful of months in 2023. That is usually a headwind for equities, particularly shares of companies domiciled overseas. Not surprisingly, we’ve seen many foreign index funds suffer relative to...
Following US dollar strength looking at DXY during the final hour of trade this morning on the US markets, both DXY and UUP represent a potential bearish opportunity should momentum continue and lower highs and lower lows be made past the current position, aligning with technical indicators of RSI and DMI. Personal stop loss for the trade would be the high of the...
Financial conditions have eased significantly in recent months. Pundits toss around that term haphazardly, but there are actually a handful of specific indicators that determine how loose or tight financial conditions in the domestic economy are. Of course, the Fed Funds rate is crucial to interbank lending and the corporate fixed income space along with where the...
DXY- UUP positions - watch Euro closely here. #cash only this week the risk reward is not there for equities / commodities
Gold is up an even 10% year to date. The precious metal has frustrated bulls at times in 2023 but falling real interest rates over the past several weeks have undoubtedly been a boon. While it’s encouraging to see spot gold climb above the $2000 per ounce mark, I see potential upside in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Notice in the chart that the portfolio of...
In today's trading session, we observed the formation of a Double Top pattern, a bearish reversal indicator commonly used in technical analysis. Despite this, it's crucial to note that the asset remains within a parallel uptrend channel. This juxtaposition of signals presents a complex trading landscape. The Double Top pattern suggests a potential exhaustion of...
The chart posted is coming to the end of the up cycle to end wave C up for WAVE B TOP the US $ should now breakdown to into lows into a major cycle low due mid march below 27in uup and in the dxy we are going to see a print of 93 into this next
I really don't think the dollar is going lower here. We've largely been moving sideway for the past 6 months consolidating. You'll see on the chart that price action in January fell below key support. Then after that we rallied and tested the 200 DMA 3 times and have also retested support 3 times and haven't broken through. Now that price action is well above...
The dollar has been basing below the 200-day MA. If you don't see it, flip the chart and you will see a bullish valatility contraction pattern. For me this should resolve to the downside to continue its downtrend. This would be good news for stocks.
The USD has given a couple of bullish signals and these are: 1. A higher high and breakout close of the highest close in the last 10 candles; 2. the MACD is turning up, crossed up the signal line too; 3. the VolDiv is beginning to turn upward and significantly turned up (white dot trigger); 4. The higher high and higher low pattern to bottom out of a downtrend...
TVC:DXY has been weaker since our last call, cratering even Lower highs since peak of Sept last year Lower highs in recent trend since Nov 2023 Relative Strength breaking lower AMEX:UUP also shows this as well (The following is not seen here, sorry, pls check profile for more info) Weekly TVC:DXY shows the weakness clearer RSI hasn't been able to break...
UUP has already broken above the W and/or Adam and Eve pattern here, and may indicate that DXY is about to do the same in preparation for a move back to 112 and then to 118+: UDN could also become bullish however, indicating the opposite, so keep an eye on both:
Just a quick note that as Biden signed the raise of the US debt ceiling, the USD is going to be bullish for a bit, and then meet the upper range resistance, and then lose it to get back to range support. Projection Targets marked.
This probably is not a good sign for the SP:SPX , as these assets are highly correlated (0.88) and normally AMEX:CPER leads the business cycle. Also, the TVC:VIX is back above 20 and NASDAQ:TLT hasn't resume its downtrend. Even the dollar AMEX:UUP is showing strength again. I'm 87% in cash and also have tighten all my stops. Let's wait and see if the...
The USD Futures Daily chart is already pointing that way... Once it breaks the yellow support line, it will look for 99. MACD slowing its ascent, while VolDiv is crossing down itself and below zero line. TD Setup is bearish for the USD. Bearish outlook overall.
watch the rest of the week. The USD is likely to slide down further based on the MACD; but VolDiv suggests that it is not likely to be a drastic off the cliff type. A revisit to the last low is very probable (small yellow ellipse) as it broke down the TDST (red dotted line) and should continue to remain below. If it closes the week below the TDST, USD is in a...
Now, if the fed pivots may 2nd.. i'd expect walmart to fly sky high to new highs.. but theres a recession coming. Aint nobody going to buy walmart into new highs in the face of a recession. me thinks ****s about to hit the fan.