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UUP

Surprising Dollar Holds Trend Line – Next Up A Breakout?The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the coming week (July 31). The odds for at least another 50 basis points by next January are around 61.9% according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Yet, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has regained new life. After breaking critical support at its 200-day moving average (DMA) in late June, the U.S. dollar recovered on July 1st, tested the 200DMA as support numerous times, and last week confirmed that support by bouncing into a challenge of its 2+ year highs set from April to May. {The U.S. dollar index (DXY) managed to survive a 200DMA breakdown.} This resilience has thrown a wrench into some of my plans to bet against the dollar going into and past the Fed. For example, the Canadian dollar’s momentum stopped soon after I wrote about the convergence of monetary policy between the U.S. and Canada. USD/CAD carved out a bottom and is in the process of challenging downtrending 50DMA resistance. Rather than stop out of the position, I decided to accumulate. I am now looking at the 200DMA as the ultimate stop-loss point. {The U.S. Dollar vs the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) bounced off its 9-month low but downtrending 50DMA resistance looms large.} The dollar’s rebound has come even with long-term yields stabilizing. Surprisingly, the price of gold and silver held steady last week rather than pull back sharply as I would have expected with the dollar’s rebound. The U.S. stock market has also ignored the renewed dollar strength: the S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (COMPQX) closed the week at a new all-time highs. Since the U.S. dollar index is about 51% the euro, perhaps the story is really about growing long-term weakness in the euro. Regardless, now the Fed trade setup features a resilient and defiant dollar with equally resilient rates, gold, and silver. Something should give after Wednesday. While I am expecting the U.S. dollar to give way, the CNBC Options Action folks are bullish on the U.S. dollar. Carter Worth used multi-decade, 2-year, and short-term daily charts to make the case for a major breakout. I am not willing to go there until after the Fed makes a move and/or the U.S. dollar breaks out above its 2019 high. @OptionsAction Dollar dollar bills, y’all! As investors await the pivotal Fed meeting next week, the dollar could be gearing up for a breakout. Here’s how Carter Worth and @Michael_Khouw are cashing in on the move $UUP Be careful out there! Full disclosure: net short the U.S. dollar, long GLD, long SLV, long TLT puts
TVC:DXY
by drduru
2
$ Base with DeMark RSI using Structural Momentum Analysis Watched an episode on Real Vision by the Structural Momentum Analysis. I did my best to re-create their measurements and came across this. The DeMark on RSI using the settings of Structural Momentum Analysis for the BASE money supply. I crossed it with QE dates and used another Real Vision legend in SautiagoAuCapital's theory of a rise in $ value as the world gets crushed from $ debt and no $ base. The oversold correspond to stock market liquidity crunches. WEIRD
FRED:BOGMBASE
by UnknownUnicorn4328351
Warn Of Gold's Top - Is The Downtrend Just Beginning? The Macro Strategist team was largely skeptical of gold's sharp, dramatic rally in late 2018. It's not that we didn't understand why gold prices were rallying, but we significantly questioned the momentum and conviction of the move. We began analyzing the volume of the move (Yes, volume matters ), and noticed that total monthly volume was declining. Not a positive under the conviction category. Then, we noticed the 7-month volume rate-of-change turn sharply lower in January. On Jan. 18, we wrote: "In "Charts to Ponder," gold's pricing proxy is hindered as a monthly volume anomaly has appeared for the first time since 2012. Monthly volume is near two standard deviations below the mean, suggesting that if volume mean reverts it could cause a staggering move in price. Two things need to be present for a sustainable rally in gold: dramatically falling real yields and volume confirmation. Sentiment remains neutral while core subscribers will receive TACVOL ranges for GLD, and premium subscribers receive additional ranges of gold miners." We got dramatically lower - albeit still positive real yields - but no volume confirmation. In fact, the monthly volume began heading into negative standard deviation territory during the beginning of the move in Oct while total volume is still positive. March and April's volume exceeded -2 deviations from the mean. Since the top in February, total monthly has increasingly become more bearish and volume mean reversion is beginning since coming off March and April's low. Volume is beginning to confirm the downward bias of gold prices, and we thing the move is just starting. Our, now free, Macro Brief " Are We On The Precipice Of A Dollar Breakout " is likely to confirm our previous view on gold. We have continuously pointed out the links between the USDCNY, USDHKD, gold and the DXY; and the dollar monthly chart is looking to smash expectations and reach triple digits.
COMEX:GC1!
by TheMacroStrategist
DXY / US DOLLAR - Bullish Setup - Inside Bar Pin Bar Fake OutIn DXY we have an inside bar / pin bar fake out pattern that has formed on the weekly charts. This pattern is considered a bullish pattern and has formed within a larger bullish pennant pattern. Last week we saw price break out of the pennant and then pull back in, setting up a short-term bearish scenario. That saw price drop all of the way to the bottom of the pennant. Price briefly tagged the bottom of the pennant and rocketed back up, pulling all of the way back into the previous weeks price range. This has set up the current bullish fake out pattern and could provide the fuel necessary to finally break out of the pennant and see price reach the 99-100 area (or higher). DXY is not directly tradable but it does have an impact on a lot of markets. There are a number of setups that have occurred that I will be discussing in other videos. I will link to those other videos here.
TVC:DXYLong
by krugman87
2
Gold should fall to this support level before bouncingThe US Dollar is poised to rally back to near $97.50 as this recent downside price swing ends.  We believe the US/China trade talks and North Korea deal with result in a strong upside potential for the US Dollar and the US stock market as time progresses. A certain number of industry analysts are starting to announce the recent December 24th lows and subsequent rally as a “new bull market”.  We have been suggesting to our followers that this market has lots of room to run as a continued global capital shift takes place.  We do expect some price rotation over the next 3~5+ weeks in certain sectors – including the US stock market and Gold.  We believe the US Dollar INDEX:DXY strength will continue to push higher, above $97, with the potential to reach near $99 before the end of this year.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by TheTechnicalTraders