UUUU LONG. Uranium Exploding higher with Worldwide Energy NeedsI am a bit late to the party on this one. But UUUU has a prior ATH of over $200. MONTHLY chart is starting what appears to be a strong uptrend. Weekly , Daily charts already look strong as well. Recent bounce off TL support (Yellow Line) which happens to also be Horizontal support (Green Line). Long Wick on yesterday's candle and todays break above Horizontal support and yesterday's high of the day are further BUY signals. MACD Rising and above ZERO line. Add to this all the worldwide energy needs and Fundamental reasons for Uranium to skyrocket soon and this trade feels like a no brainer. usually I try to catch the trend a bit earlier but this is definitely a good LOW RISK Trade. Entry will be LIMIT Order @ $8.41. We will see if we fill at better price. If it does not fill within 1st 10 min of trading then I will plan on entering in at the then current price @ 0940 AM.
Entry = $8.41...???
SL = $7.28
1st TP = $11. Will reeval TP levels as price action evolves.
UUUU
Uranium momentum , bullish Nov option flowWhat is driving Uranium? China demand for power and Spot Uranium has increased from $34 to $42 in Sept 2021.
Options flow for Cameco - Nov 19 put call ratio is .27, almost 4 to 1 calls to puts. over 19000 sitting in OI for $25 calls, 14000 in $28 calls.
Other names to watch: URA, UUUU, NXE and UNRM.
$UUUU & *Completed* Wyckoff AccumulationThose of you who know me know I **LOVE** finding completed Wyckoff Accumulations. Today is a good day, because we found another one.
Introducing $UUUU. This stock has recently completed ~6 years of accumulation and appears to be in the early stages of markup. If you go through my related ideas of some other assets that have had similar setups, observe how those patterns ended up playing out. And bonus points here with how LONG (how much TIME) has gone into this pattern. This isn't like the 1 or 2 month patterns that crypto TA loves to go all-in with... this is ~6 years worth of effort to bring us to the start of what appears to be a major run.
Note: Don't get too caught up in FOMO - with a 6 year floor, I'd estimate it will be a year or two for the stock to hit it's ultimate top. Of course, the market is going to do whatever it wants and not ask our permission. If it pulls a GME and insta-moons with all of WSB, then the top will be found much, much sooner than a couple years (imo/nfa).
Link to schematic for review
school.stockcharts.com
The case for Uranium: Master Plan with a Price Target of 100$+In the early 2000s, the flooding of the McArthur River and Cigar Lake mines were immediate black swan catalysts that further accelerated the existing bull market into a mania moving uranium spot prices to a peak of $150/lb in 2007. The flight to commodities as an inflation hedge following the Great Recession served as an additional catalyst underpinning the macroeconomics behind the commodity boom of the 2000s. The last bull run ended when higher supply combined with the fallout from the Fukishima nuclear disaster sealed uranium into a now decade long secular bear market. Given the lack of speculation, mines today have been idled and the industry has been in consolidation and liquidation ever since. Over the past decade, Uranium prices have descended into the abyss.
Because it costs more than $50/lb to mine uranium, the current spot prices indicate an extreme imbalance. The former Soviet state-owned-enterprise, now publicly traded Kazatomprom has forced cheap supply onto the market over the last decade, however overly bearish sentiment has held back the necessary investment in new mines and exploration leading to consistent annual supply deficits. New reactor construction in China and India has lead to strong growth in uranium fuel demand. Given the extreme asymmetry and cyclicality of uranium spot prices, investors are presented with a once in a lifetime opportunity.
On top of that, COVID19 has lead to further supply constraints. Cameco's Cigar Lake Mine, which accounted for 18% of worlds supply, was and remains closed. Now, mining companies such as Denison have started actively buying uranium off of the spot market to fulfill their obligations.
Its only a question of time until the remaining supply wont be enough to fill demand.
At that point, we could experience a bull market in Uranium and the mining companies of epic proportions.
Note that uranium bull markets are multi-year to even decade long affairs.
My estimation is that we will see prices go to around 50$ in the short term, and then continue a rise up to the 70-90$ region, where price could be sustained for longer periods.
However, on shorter timeframes, this longer term target could certainly be overshot, and by a lot.
Does 150$/lb sound realistic? Perhaps.
While we haven't had a bear market as severe preceding this bull market as we had in the early 2000s, you would need to account for other factors too.
Adjusted for Inflation, 150$ in 2007 would be around 200$ in todays prices.
On top of that, there could be additional catalists coming up along the way.
My plan is to start selling my miners once we reach the 70-90$ range, and let a portion run to see how high we can go. If we go significantly above 100$, I will make sure to not sell the rest of my shares below 100$ U308.
Keep in mind that miners tend top out before the price of actual Uranium. Catching the top will be difficult, and there probably wont be a lot of time for it.
My favourite ways to play this is to go long on $UUUU, $DNN, $CVV, $FCU, $NXG, $URE, $CCJ.
Since there are only about 20 publicly traded mining companies with (high) exposure to the uranium market, of which around 15 are viable investments in my oppinion, even a "spray and pray" approach probably will likely be able to reap in significant returns if my thesis plays out.
Once the tide rises, it wont matter too much in which boat youre in.
March back to $6The FA for the entire uranium industry could not be more bullish. UUUU has added the rare earth processing element to its books which will prove to be a massive asset as 90%+ of all rare earths are processed in China.
TA wise I think we follow the trend through the ichi cloud and retest $6 as resistance. Would like to see it broken and the retested for push back to yearly highs ~$7.30.
UUUU update - Terrible time for shortsUpdating my chart as it seems to be followed by a few lately and has proven accurate since breakout in Nov..
We may see a quick (C) down to the confluence of support (Trend, Fib and MA) which would constitute a spike, though it may have enough buying buoyancy to be rather shallow.
Once correction is complete, this week will show the beginning of a W5 up to the $8 master resistance. It may get rejected there and correct up to 50% of the current 5 wave structure. That correction will be the LAST buying opportunity in UUUU/EFR
UUUU top out at 10Update to my UUUU chart. I last posted a while back before breaking out of the wedge where I proposed repositioning if we failed to break and challenge the red trend resistance.
Since we have broken the wedge to test the RED. The RED was stiff and we will now retrace the move since April. This part of the wave structure would usually retrace shallowly, but I present the deepest possible retrace will test the 50 dMA.
Once the retrace is complete we could test the RED resistance. If broken we test 10. If fails, we probably sideways until true spot market moves, potentially nearer September.
My last entry was at 5.57 and a strong push to 10 would be 80% before considering a reposition to somewhere lower in the channel (As per the previous post)
I think that UUUU is now in Markdown phaseI think that the labor market is now getting better, national mask mandates are lifting, sanctions on covid are lifting.
Mines are going to go back to work, more labor available, newer machines with grants and eco bills.
I think that the cost of UUUU will go Down, due to uranium supply re opening, and technical data. this will persist until maybe October in the winter months when energy is in high demand and labor is more expensive.