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UVXY

Carnival of SoulsMarkets have been on an absolute tear this week, and as we kick off the final day of trade for the week, it's important to reflect on what we just witnessed, especialy given last weeks (long awaited) bearish price action. We saw a massive rally this week fueled by stupidity, greed, and fraud, and I'm not convinced we're seeig natural price action off the back of "new investors," most of whom are entering the market with $2000 or less in their account. Yes, they can leverage this to the max, but as we've learned by the 90+% success in market makers books, most of those traders lose all their money in a very short space of time. Except for the past year. Also, volume is showing that next to no one is participating in these melt-ups, and gap-ups. Doing research, fundamental and technical analysis, and other means of making sense of markets, gets you one result in today's market: losses. If you try to make sense of the market, you might want to look at things like individual company valuations, growth rates & market prospects, balance sheets, cash flows, market/ vertical constraints, labour/skill shortages, technical indicators, the strength of the economy, etc. But, all that gets you is on the wrong side of price action, almost guaranteed. It's as if the central banks and market makers have figured out exactly what the market should be doing, and are working morning, noon, and night, to do the polar opposite. Like many of you, this feels personal to me as a career trader. When we see technicals breaking down, and markets showing weakness, we see the Vix spiking, as it should. But, last week we saw the Vix spike over 60%, on a mere 3% pull back. I've never seen that type of reaction from a 3% sell-off in my entire career. But, hey, as you guys know, I was long UVXY, HUV, and short Nasdaq through HQD, and QID. Needless to say it was a fantastic week for my portfolio. Then, suddenly, price action didn't just reverse, but reversed into hyperdrive. We're looking at a scenario this week that reminds me of November, when we saw the Titanic of short squeezes gap markets up almost every single night, without fail. It was a rocket ship, similar to what we're seeing now, and the entire global market "participated." Is all this price action off the back of new investors entering the market? No way. Volume is abysmal. No one is participating in this Ponzi anymore. It's like market makers and central banks are purposely moving price action in the opposite direction to get any contrarians out of the market. Are we so desperate to compete with China, that now we're nationalizing our markets as well, and racing to debase our currency? We used to be hard on China for "currency manipulation." Now it's our favorite pass time? Soon the Fed will own half the indexes, and bond markets as well (like in Japan), and the free market dream will be dead. Imo it's already dead, and the minute the last few bears standing close out their shorts, and risk protection (myself included), markets will then crash, and the market makers will be the only ones short, having taken the opposite side of all (long) trades. If not, we're going to have to start researching life in Zimbabwe to prepare for whats to come over the next 25 years. We can clearly see that rates are rising, with the 10Y yield up over 100% since August 2020, and the dollar is following suit, even though it's worth less than toilet paper in this new reality. When markets are melting up, rates are rising, and the dollar is rising, mean while, the labour market is seeing 800k jobless claims per week, and almost 5 million continuing claims, half of retail stores closed permanently, and businesses are paying their staff with government subsidies, and yet, markets are at all time highs? That's when you know we're in fucking outer space. The fact that government, and market and policy makers seem to think they're doing good (maybe they're just that stupid), by persistently injecting Trillions in "liquidity" into markets, while simultaniously injecting Trillions in "stimulus" into the economy, while the dollar becomes worthless, and the real economy rots from the inside out, is straight up insane to me. The billionaire class has been repeaing all of the rewards from this type of policy, while the middle class takes on more, and more debt, and more, and more risk. The housing market is a massive ponzi, it's entirely made up of near zero interest speculative debt. The slew of Heloc's on top of those mortgages, that are crippling families from spending, really can't see a rate increase, because then half of households will likely go bankrupt, and the houses will become worthless, with next to no buyers qualifying for mortgages. Maybe the Fed will start buying our houses soon? Oh wait, they're already holding like 5 Trillion in mortgage debt through Fannie and Freddie, so what's another 10 or 20 Trillion? I digress... Sorry for the rant today, my friends, but like many of you, I'm simply "Fed" up... I won't be doing a live analysis today, I'm taking the day off to do some research, and will come back refreshed on Monday with a new solution to this direct attack on logic. I'm not taking this lying down anymore. Have a great weekend everyone! Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
41
SPY Rejection (Again) at White Channel ResistanceHey guys, sorry I missed you yesterday, I had a busy day of meetings and was away from my desk. Let's get right into it this morning. US Futures are struggling to hold on to the (weak) overnight gains, which saw the majors bounce between quarter and half a percentage point as of 8:30AM. We saw jobless claims come in hot at 779k claims, but better than the 825k expected, along with 4.592MM continuing claims. I love how analysts are still expecting over 800k claims each week, while they simultaniously, and almost unanimously, suggest that the economy has recovered. When all this debt binging ends, (if ever), and stimulus payments aren't enough to replace GDP, what then? NIRP? According to the ECB, banks should start preparing for NIRP. I guess the ignorance at the central banking level knows no bounds. On another note, unit labour costs came in more than double the expected 3.3%, at 6.8%. Vix continues to get battered, and is back at the ascending support trendline, and descending green dotted trendline, which went from resistance to support on Jan 27th. We should see strong demand for risk protection at these levels, especially considering the dollar (DXY) is extending it's recent breakout, and hit a new high of 91.485 moments ago. We're now seeing some light selling as we approach the open. But, with rates (10Y yield is retesting the recent highs, and we saw a 1.155% print earier this morning, before pairing some gains), and the dollar gaining momentum, we may continue to see pressure on bond markets, and equity valuations in the near term. Gold has lost the 200 day MA ($1,851.32), and is looking quite bearish at the moment around $1,819/oz. We're in a medium term descending channel, and the recent low is back in play at $1,764.73. Silver is also taking a beating, with the SLV back at a 24 handle, after hitting a 27 handle on Monday. Bitcoin is looking strong, but also may be topping, as we revisited a 38k handle this morning, while Ether almost caught a $1700 handle earlier on. SPY continued it's rebound yesterday, with another solid, but short lived retest of the upper band of the white channel (around 383.70). The 21 day EMA, is sitting at 377.60, and barring a break above the white channel, this is the next logical target, which suggests a notable pull back in the immediate term. We're also seeing quite a few light supports on the hourly, with the 21EMA (h) at 380.64, the the 50 MA (h) at 379.16, and the 200MA (h) at 376.87. The lower band of the white channel is now sitting around 372, and has seen persistently heavy support at this level. This is my target for EOW. We look poised to open near the gamma neutral zone, around 383, and we'll see if upper white channel resistance can hold off the infinitely deep pocketed bulls. If the bears successfully defend this level, we're going lower... Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Stay tuned for our live daily play-by-play to begin shortly at www.hedgeoftheworld.com Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
14
SPY at White Channel ResistanceI'm away from my desk today guys, as I have a few meetings, but I wanted to share an idea nevertheless. The rocket ship appears to be running out of fuel around the gamma neutral zone (383), and the top of the white channel, where we saw 5 houly rejections in a row yesterday afternoon. AMZN and GOOG beat on earnings after the market close yesterday, and yet, futures are relatively flat this morning. Will we finally see a (notable) correction this week, after some light turbulence last week? God I hope so...
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
36
Stocks Rise on Tuesday, Stimulus & Earnings in FocusThe US majors are extending yesterday's gains with European and Asian markets up across the board, and leading the way. The S&P broke above the 21 day EMA in the overnight session, after seeing a rejection during yesterday's cash market. You guys know the game - when bears go to sleep, central banks show up and raid the barn. I see no reason for the continued irrational exuberance today, and so I suspect we're seeing the last of the interim bounce, which will quickly reverse by EOD/tomorrow. The Dollar (DXY) continues to break out, and although we may see a retest of the neckline around 90.75, we're likely going much higher in the near term, as traders continue to digest the repetitive, but weakening "hope" and "optimism" driven narratives, spoon fed to them by the media each day. We're seeing Vix take a breather at a 27 handle, and we're sitting just north of the highway of MA's on the hourly. As we mentioned yesterday, it's possible we trade in a tight range here, while markets exaust the last of the dip buying. We're seeing notably less euphoria over in the WSB crowd, with many of the most shorted names significantly off their recent high's, and heading lower. After hitting an 8 year high, Silver is taking a beating today, and is down almost 10% since yesterday's open. Needless to say, when the clearing houses raised Robinhood's deposit requirements 10-fold overnight recently, they proved to the world that margin is a weapon, and it's controlled, operated, and managed by the clearing house, not the investor, and not the broker. Some of us in the industry understand this, as we've seen this type of behaviour in the past, but many traders are not aware of the power of clearing houses. They mistakenly blamed Robinhood, who had no choice in the matter. Traders should be extremely cautious with their leverage right now in a market which has become more corrupt and fraudulent with each passing day. Amazon and Alphabet release earnings after the close, and I expect to see a blow out quarter, as usual. With these 2 giants potentially seeing some flows later/tomorrow, and possibly raising the tide for all boats this week, we may see further pressure on Vix. We'll have to wait and see what the numbers look like, and then reassess our outlook based on the technicals/ prevailing sentiment. Lastly, with Democrats threatening to move ahead with their $1.9 Trillion stimulus proposal without the support of Republicans, we should see a slew of MSM headlines today about how awesome this proposal is going to be, and how it will change everything for average American households. Republicans are offering up a measly $600 Billion proposal, which I imagine is just a formality, as Democrats now have control of the congress, senate, and white house. Crazy fact of the day: According to Zero Hedge, over 75% of companies in the S&P have beat earnings expectations in the past 4 quarters in a row. 84% have beat in the most recent quarter. What pandemic? Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Stay tuned for our live play-by-play to begin shortly. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
25
IWM Rejection at the 21 day EMA?Global futures are rebounding on Monday after a bearish close on Friday, and the worst week for markets since October. The SPY is catching a strong bounce off the 50 day MA, and is working its way toward the 21 day EMA at 376.80 as we approach the open. I expect to see strong resistance here, and a continuation of the downtrend from last week, toward the 50 day MA at 370.80. The Nasdaq ( QQQ ) is poised to open above it's 21 day EMA , also, which is sitting around 317.56. If QQQ sees a rejection at the open, our first target is the 50 day MA at 309. On the Russell (IWM ), we're currently trading above the 21 day EMA, with the 50 day MA sitting around 196.56. The Vix is seeing some pressure at the moment, as the indexes rebound. But, we're looking strong at a 31 handle as of 9AM. I suspect we may be nearing the lows of the week, with Vix about to see another leg higher, possibly to a 40 handle by Friday. The dollar ( DXY ) is notably higher this morning, and is approaching a 91 handle. We're testing the neckline again, and may be on the verge of a break out. Bitcoin is still holding on to some of it's recent gains; we're currently trading at a 33k handle, and flat on day. Keep an eye on Silver today, as the WSB crowd continues to hammer the most shorted securities, of which, Silver seems to be the latest focus. SLV was up over 9% in pre-market trade. Looking at the week ahead, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG, "Markets will concentrate again on the really important developments: ongoing vaccination and therefore brightening outlooks regarding re-openings with increasing activity, paving the way for pent-up demand driving the economic recovery.” I literally laughed when I read this quote. He may as well have said, "everything is awesome, so investors are feeling pretty awesome, and we'll see something happen this week that's awesome." You'll rarely ever hear a negative outlook from the sell-side; their job is to acquire, and keep your money invested. Just something to keep in mind when you're reading about, or discussing different market outlooks. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY , HUV , HQD , QID .
AMEX:IWMShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
QQQ Bounce to 21 day EMA, Rejection Next?The Nasdaq ( QQQ ) is poised to open above it's 21 day EMA, which is sitting around 317.56. If QQQ sees a rejection at the open, our first target is the 50 day MA at 309. On the Russell ( IWM ), we're currently trading above the 21 day EMA in pre-market, with the 50 day MA sitting around 196.56. SPY is also seeing a bounce toward the 21 day EMA, where we expect to see a rejection. The Vix is seeing some pressure at the moment, as the indexes rebound. But, we're looking strong at a 31 handle as of 9AM. I suspect we may be nearing the lows of the week, with Vix about to see another leg higher, possibly to a 40 handle by Friday. The dollar ( DXY ) is notably higher this morning, and is approaching a 91 handle. We're testing the neckline again, and may be on the verge of a break out. Bitcoin is still holding on to some of it's recent gains; we're currently trading at a 33k handle, and flat on day. Keep an eye on Silver today, as the WSB crowd continues to hammer the most shorted securities, of which, Silver seems to be the latest focus. SLV was up over 9% in pre-market trade. Looking at the week ahead, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG, "Markets will concentrate again on the really important developments: ongoing vaccination and therefore brightening outlooks regarding re-openings with increasing activity, paving the way for pent-up demand driving the economic recovery.” I literally laughed when I read this quote. He may as well have said, "everything is awesome, so investors are feeling pretty awesome, and we'll see something happen this week that's awesome." You'll rarely ever hear a negative outlook from the sell-side; their job is to acquire, and keep your money invested. Just something to keep in mind when you're reading about, or discussing different market outlooks. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY , HUV , HQD , QID .
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
SPY Poised to Retest 21 Day EMA as ResistanceGlobal futures are rebounding on Monday after a bearish close on Friday, and the worst week for markets since October. The SPY is catching a strong bounce off the 50 day MA, and is working its way toward the 21 day EMA at 376.80 as we approach the open. I expect to see strong resistance here, and a continuation of the downtrend from last week, toward the 50 day MA at 370.80. The Nasdaq (QQQ) is poised to open above it's 21 day EMA, also, which is sitting around 317.56. If QQQ sees a rejection at the open, our first target is the 50 day MA at 309. On the Russell (IWM), we're currently trading above the 21 day EMA in pre-market, with the 50 day MA sitting around 196.56. The Vix is seeing some pressure at the moment, as the indexes rebound. But, we're looking strong at a 31 handle as of 9AM. I suspect we may be nearing the lows of the week, with Vix about to see another leg higher, possibly to a 40 handle by Friday. The dollar (DXY) is notably higher this morning, and is approaching a 91 handle. We're testing the neckline again, and may be on the verge of a break out. Bitcoin is still holding on to some of it's recent gains; we're currently trading at a 33k handle, and flat on day. Keep an eye on Silver today, as the WSB crowd continues to hammer the most shorted securities, of which, Silver seems to be the latest focus. SLV was up over 9% in pre-market trade. Looking at the week ahead, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG, "Markets will concentrate again on the really important developments: ongoing vaccination and therefore brightening outlooks regarding re-openings with increasing activity, paving the way for pent-up demand driving the economic recovery.” I literally laughed when I read this quote. He may as well have said, "everything is awesome, so investors are feeling pretty awesome, and we'll see something happen this week that's awesome." You'll rarely ever hear a negative outlook from the sell-side; their job is to acquire, and keep your money invested. Just something to keep in mind when you're reading about, or discussing different market outlooks. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis! Check us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
15
UVXY Potential This idea varies from my other ideas because I focus primarily on the fundamentals instead of the technicals. Details are provided on chart. I plan on purchasing shares, not options, due to the low price. From a macro perspective, this upcoming 1-3 months may possess an immense amount of volatility. I will keep this idea updated, as I don't plan on longing quite yet; I'm interested to see what the $900bn stimulus check will do. But as always, do your own DD. Happy trading!
CBOE:UVXYLong
by tacosaucewalkin
7
Face/OffGlobal futures are tanking again on Friday morning, with the US majors down around 0.8% pre-market. We're seeing a sea of red across Europe and Asia as well, with the DAX, CAC40, FTSE100, and Hang Seng all down around 1.5%. Vix is catching a strong bid this morning, and is back at a 33 handle and up around 12% pre-market. The short squeeze bonanza continues this morning, with hedge funds suffering max pain, as retail investors trample on their shorts, one by one, and in carefully coordinated fashion. As we mentioned yesterday in our analysis, "As hedge funds continue to suffer massive losses from these running short squeezes, they're forced to liquidate their long positions in the most loved companies. This could be why we're seeing broader market weakness this morning despite strong quarterly earnings reports." The dollar (DXY) is trading flat, and hovering between the descending trendline, and IHS neckline just above. A break above the neckline could put major pressure on risk assets. The 10Y yield is blowing up this morning after a strong bounce near the 50 day MA. We're now back above the 21 day EMA, and sitting around 1.09%. In Crypto, Bitcoin is soaring after Elon Musk tweeted about the asset, and changed his Twitter description to simply "#Bitcoin". At 3AM on the dot, Bitcoin went parabolic, and rose by as much as 15%, back to a $37k handle. Maybe the SEC may want to look into this? Wait, who? While crypto's are soaring, so is good ole' original money, Gold. We saw a strong bounce off the 200 day MA at $1,849/oz, and we're up 1.5% on the day, and sitting at $1,870. Needless to say, we're seeing a risk off mood across the board as we approach the cash open. Key levels to watch today on SPY are the 21 day EMA at 377.47 for strong resistance, and the 50 day MA, sitting at 370.55, for strong support. The 50 is actually overlapping the lower band of the white channel. If bears capture this level, the almighty megaphone is back play, around 361. As I write, we're getting panic bid towards the 21 day EMA. Let's see what the hedge funds have to say today in rebuttle to the WSB crowd. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. If you'd like to follow the price action all day, join us over at the Hedge of the World website for our live daily play-by-play. Have a great weekend! Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY , HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6