Value
HCA Healthcare | HCA | Long at $299.00NYSE:HCA Healthcare: P/E of 13x, earnings are forecast to grow 6.01% per year; earnings have grown 10.6% per year over the past 5 years, and trading at good value compared to peers and industry.
From a technical analysis perspective, it dipped to my selected historical simple moving average area and may represent a buying opportunity to fill the daily price gap up to $394.00. Thus, NYSE:HCA is in a personal buy zone at $299.00.
Target #1 = $324.00
Target #2 = $362.00
Target #3 = $394.00
Delta Airlines - Long Term FlyerHey, all. Pretty intense idea here, but I am a buyer of NYSE:DAL at these levels. Obviously, the chart looks awful from a recent performance perspective. However, if you take a long term view, we could actually be rebalancing after an initial range expansion to the upside. Just like NASDAQ:RIVN , airlines are/have been a pretty brutal investment. I guess I have a thing for pain. Ha.
I am certainly a believer that airlines are undervalued here and can reverse back to the upside. Of course, it goes against the current narrative that the economy is showing signs of weakness. But I am just willing to take the risk on this one. I believe the consumer and culture shift in the US to have more experiences in life will continue to hold.
Are we going to come in for a hard landing, or take off to cruising altitude? We'll see what kind of lift the market will give us. Right now the turbulence is pretty intense.
XRP’s Path to Dominance: A Forecasted Price Per TokenAs of March 30, 2025, XRP, the cryptocurrency powering the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) solution, is poised for a potential surge in adoption and value. With the Ripple-SEC lawsuit dropped earlier this year, a wave of bullish developments is setting the stage for XRP to challenge traditional financial systems like SWIFT. But can XRP realistically capture 5% of SWIFT’s massive $5 trillion daily transaction volume, and what could this mean for its price? Let’s dive into the factors driving XRP’s growth, including institutional adoption, tokenization, ETFs, futures trading, private ledgers, investor sentiment, and emerging trends like Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and FedNow transactions.
The Dropped Ripple-SEC Lawsuit: A Game-Changer
The Ripple-SEC lawsuit, which had cast a shadow over XRP since 2020, has been dismissed, removing a significant regulatory hurdle. This development has already sparked a rally, with XRP’s price climbing to around $2.50 from earlier lows, driven by renewed investor confidence. The lawsuit’s resolution clears the path for institutional adoption, particularly for ODL, which uses XRP as a bridge currency for cross-border payments, positioning it as a direct competitor to SWIFT.
XRP’s 5% SWIFT Ambition: Institutional Adoption Soars
SWIFT processes approximately $5 trillion in daily transactions, and capturing 5% of that—$250 billion/day—would be a monumental achievement for XRP. Recent developments suggest this goal is within reach. Japanese banks are going live on the XRPL in 2025, joining 75 major global banks adopting XRPL for cross-border payments and private ledgers. This adoption, fueled by XRPL’s low-cost, high-speed transactions and ISO 20022 compliance, could drive $150 billion/day in XRP transactions via ODL, with the remainder handled by stablecoins like RLUSD, RLGBP, RLEUR, and RLJPY.
Private ledgers on XRPL, now utilized by these 75 banks, handle $50 billion/day in transactions, with XRP facilitating 30% ($15 billion/day) of settlements. This institutional embrace, combined with XRP’s energy-efficient consensus mechanism, positions it as a viable alternative to SWIFT’s traditional infrastructure.
Tokenization Projects Boost XRPL’s Utility
Tokenization is another key driver for XRP’s growth. Projects like Silver Scott, Aurum Equity Partners, and Zoniqx are tokenizing real-world assets—such as real estate, private equity, and debt funds—on the XRPL. These initiatives are projected to tokenize $500 billion in assets annually, with XRP used for 20% of settlement ($100 billion/year). By enabling efficient, decentralized asset management, tokenization enhances XRPL’s utility, indirectly boosting demand for XRP as the network’s native token.
XRP ETFs, Futures Trading, and Investor Sentiment
Later in 2025, the SEC is expected to approve 10+ XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), following the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum. These ETFs will open XRP to institutional and retail investors, increasing liquidity and driving speculative demand. Additionally, XRP futures trading on platforms like Kraken will further amplify market activity, mirroring Bitcoin’s sentiment-driven rallies. With investor sentiment resembling Bitcoin’s—where global events and hype can propel prices—XRP could see a 3x–5x increase from its current $2.50, potentially reaching $7.50–$12.50 in the short term.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and FedNow
The rise of CBDCs adds another layer to XRP’s potential. The European Union’s digital euro, alongside other global CBDC initiatives, could leverage XRPL’s infrastructure for cross-border settlements. Ripple is already in discussions with over 20 central banks about CBDCs, as noted in web reports, and XRPL’s ability to handle multi-currency transactions positions it as a natural fit. If the EU’s digital euro integrates with XRPL, XRP could process an additional $50 billion/day in CBDC-related transactions, further boosting its utility.
Similarly, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FedNow Service, launched for instant payments, could intersect with XRPL if institutions adopt ODL for cross-border FedNow transactions. While FedNow focuses on domestic U.S. payments, its integration with XRPL for international settlements could drive another $25 billion/day in XRP transactions, enhancing its role in the global financial ecosystem.
Private Ledgers: Tailored Solutions for Institutions
XRPL’s support for private ledgers allows banks to customize solutions for privacy and efficiency. With 75 banks now using private ledgers, handling $50 billion/day with 30% ($15 billion/day) settled in XRP, this feature strengthens XRP’s appeal for institutional use, complementing public ledger transactions and CBDC integrations.
Forecasting XRP’s Price: A Realistic Outlook
Given these developments, what’s a realistic price forecast for XRP if it captures 5% of SWIFT’s volume ($250 billion/day), plus additional volume from CBDCs, FedNow, tokenization, ETFs, futures, and private ledgers? Let’s model it conservatively:
Daily Transaction Value: $150 billion (ODL) + $15 billion (private ledgers) + $50 billion (CBDCs) + $25 billion (FedNow) = $240 billion/day.
Annual Value: $240 billion * 365 = $87.6 trillion/year.
Tokenization Contribution: $100 billion/year.
Total Annual Value: $87.7 trillion/year.
Market Cap Multiplier: In a conservative scenario, a 1x–2x multiplier reflects cautious adoption, competition, and XRP’s 55.5 billion supply:
At 1x: Market cap = $87.7 trillion, price = ~$1,580.
At 2x: Market cap = $175.4 trillion, price = ~$3,161.
Adjusted for Realism: A $175.4 trillion market cap exceeds global GDP and crypto market projections. Adjusting to 0.5x (conservative, reflecting competition and supply limits): $43.85 trillion, price = ~$790.
Thus, a realistic conservative forecast for XRP, factoring in all these developments, is approximately $790 per token in over the next year or two. This price reflects XRP’s growing utility, institutional adoption, and sentiment-driven growth, but it’s tempered by supply constraints, competition from SWIFT, other blockchains, and stablecoins, and the need for broader regulatory clarity outside the U.S.
Conclusion
XRP’s potential to capture 5% of SWIFT’s volume, combined with Japanese banks on XRPL, tokenization projects, ETF and futures approvals, private ledgers, CBDCs like the EU’s digital euro, and FedNow integrations, positions it for significant growth. However, a conservative forecast of $790 per token in the medium term is more aligned with current market dynamics and XRP’s fundamentals. While XRP’s journey is exciting, its price trajectory will depend on sustained adoption, regulatory progress, and competition in the evolving crypto landscape. Stay tuned as XRP continues to reshape global finance!
BTC in 17 April 2025Potential Major Move on Thursday, April 17, 2025 📍
📊 Based on an analysis of historical Bitcoin chart averages and similar patterns, there is a likelihood of a significant price movement on this date.
This analysis is conducted using technical analysis and a detailed examination of Bitcoin’s movement averages. It suggests that approximately every 150 days after the start of a neutral trend, we can expect a sharp upward or downward move that sets the stage for the main trend in the future.
📅 As of the current date, March 29, 2025, there are about 18 days left until this significant event.
You can follow the results of this analysis and the conducted review on TradingView on the specified date.
Rivian Kicking Off Potential UptrendHey, all. I'll get down to it. Obviously NASDAQ:RIVN has been an incredibly tough stock to own. Fake out after fake out. It has been brutal - unless you have been nimble enough to buy the dips and sell the rips.
I would like to posit, however, that NASDAQ:RIVN is going to start marching back higher here over time. In the signal system I have been taught via the T@M strategy, Rivian is putting in a range expansion to the upside on the weekly time frame. If you take the range of the past monthly consolidation period, attach it to the "mode" (or central zone of the consolidation range), it gives you a target of $25 over the next few months. Now, whether this is another fake out just to reverse on us... again... remains to be seen of course. It is early in the idea. But potentially offers a decent risk/reward position here.
I just do not see Rivian really going away at all and, if they can keep refining their business, they could see some success going forward. Anyway, hope you enjoy this idea! As always, position carefully as the market is risky business.
Including the Daily Chart below for your reference as well.
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK — March 28, 2025TODAYS RECAP — March 27 Was a Classic Shakeout Day. A textbook shakeout in XAU/USD, driven by market maker manipulation, volume distribution, and liquidity engineering.
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK — March 28, 2025
Triple Threat Day: End of Week, End of Month, End of Q1.
Institutions will shape the Q1 close intentionally.
1. Book Rebalancing in Play
• Expect:
• Q1 profit locking
• Loss hiding
• Positioning games likely, especially into NY close.
2. Deceptive Order Flow
• Breakouts at highs/lows likely fake.
• Watch for:
• “Break and reverse” moves
• False drops into demand / false rallies into supply
III. SCENARIO PROJECTIONS — March 28
Scenario A: Bullish Continuation (Primary Bias)
Reasons:
• Daily structure remains bullish
• Shakeout held support
• Macro still supports gold (safe haven bid)
Confirmation Checklist:
• VWAP Mid ($3056) reclaimed and held
• Volume above $3060–$3074
• Asia or London delivers structure
Target Path:
• TP1: $3074.70 (DynaR RES 2)
• TP2: $3090.00 (Fib ext 1.618)
• TP3: $3105.00 (Q1 high magnet)
Scenario B: Distribution & Drop (Contingency Bias)
Reasons:
• If today was an institutional sell trap
• RSI divergence lingers
• DXY strength could trigger selling
Bearish Confirmation:
• Price fails to hold $3050 on open
• Red candles with increasing volume
• No VWAP reclaim during London
Target Path:
• TP1: $3034.48 (DynaR SUP 2)
• TP2: $3012.00 (FVG Fill + 21 SMA)
• TP3: $2995.00 (Deep VAL flush)
IV. SESSION PLAYBOOK — Cairo Local Time
V. EXECUTION GAME PLAN
Pre-Asia Preparation:
• No early entries
• Mark VWAP, POC, VAL/VAH from March 27
• Anticipate:
• Sweep under $3034
• Fake breakout above $3066
Execution Triggers:
• Volume + VWAP alignment
• Key zones: Hold/reject VWAP, POC, SUP/RES
• RSI divergence = no chasing
Risk Management:
• Tighten stops after NY open
• Don’t hold trades past 6PM Cairo unless trailing
• Lock in partials aggressively during spikes
VI. SCENARIOS RECAP TABLE
Final Note: Institutional Psychology Over Signals
“Tomorrow isn’t a technical day. It’s a story day. Institutions will use gold to close the quarter with purpose. Be reactive, not predictive. Trade what they show you — not what you want to see.”
Trend Reversal With Low Demand Natural Gas Outlook: Bearish signals dominate NATGAS with a Head & Shoulders pattern, Shooting Star, and Bearish Engulfing on the chart.
Technical Indicators: RSI is declining, and MACD shows bearish momentum, supporting further downside.
Weather Impact: The UK forecast for the next two weeks shows mixed conditions—initial sunshine but turning unsettled with rain and wind.
Heating Demand: Temperatures will range between 2°C and 13°C, potentially affecting natural gas consumption.
March 28-31: Breezy conditions with low clouds and occasional showers, possibly moderating demand.
Market Reaction: UK NATGAS price projections show stability around 58.2 on March 28 and 57.7 on March 31.
Key Resistance & Support: Watch $4.00 resistance and $3.60 support for potential breakouts.
Bearish Confirmation: If price closes below $3.80, further downside towards $3.50 could be expected.
Fundamental Factors: Geopolitics and supply dynamics still play a major role in volatility.
Risk Management: Monitor weather updates and gas storage reports for potential reversals.
Short-Term Traders: Bearish entries could target $3.60 with tight stop losses above $4.00.
Long-Term Investors: May look for buying opportunities near strong support zones.
Caution: Unexpected cold snaps or supply disruptions could invalidate bearish scenarios.
Stay Updated: Keep track of weather forecasts and fundamental changes impacting demand/supply.
Not Financial Advice: Do your own research before trading.
FCX - We had a great month, can we continue with the uptrend?FCX
Looking for a potential buy!
🔍 Technical Context:
FCX had a tremendous up-beat with 24% increase in the stock just in march!
MACD Bullish Crossover: A clear bullish cross on the MACD confirmed upward momentum.
RSI Strength: The RSI remains in bullish territory, signaling further upside potential.
Favorable Risk-Reward Setup: The stock maintains support above breakout levels, offering an attractive trade opportunity.
📰 Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrades: J.P. Morgan and Scotiabank both issued upgrades and increased their price targets, reflecting confidence in FCX’s future performance.
Tariff Advantage: Potential U.S. tariffs on imported copper could benefit domestic producers like Freeport-McMoRan, increasing their advantage.
Strategic Policy Support: FCX is advocating for copper to be classified as a critical mineral, which could unlock tax credits and boost annual profits by up to $500 million.
📌 Trade Plan
📈 Entry: 41.90
✅ Target: 58.30
❌ SL: 23.90
💡 Looking for a potential 35% increase!
Beginning of the Uptrend for Stock #01Beginning of the Uptrend for Stock #01: 9988 (BABA)
The price has broken out of a consolidation range that lasted approximately two years, supported by a normal volume distribution.
The stock has risen to meet the Fibonacci Extension resistance level of 161.8 at a price of 144 HKD. Currently, it is forming a sideways consolidation pattern on the smaller timeframe, establishing a base structure viewed as re-accumulation.
The 6-month target is set at the Fibonacci Extension level of 261.8, which corresponds to a price of 189 HKD. This target aligns with a price cluster based on the valuation from sensitivity analysis, using the forward EPS estimates for 2025-2026 as a key variable for calculations, along with the standard deviation of the price-to-earnings ratio.
Wait for the Right Moment to Accumulate Shares within the Consolidation Range
Purchase near the support level of the range when the price pulls back. Look for a candlestick reversal pattern as a signal to add to your position.
However, should the price break down to the lower consolidation range, the stock would lose its upward momentum, potentially leading to a prolonged period of consolidation or a deeper pullback to around 90 HKD.
Always have a plan and prioritize risk management.
Lennar Corp | LEN | Long at $116.48Across the US, there is a pent-up demand for housing (for the vast majority of locations). While the media likes to selectively report home sales dropping for certain regions, it is more due to mortgage rates and seasonality than demand. Mortgage rates are anticipated to come down over the next 1-2 years and home builders will step in to pick-up the lack of inventory. Healthy companies like Lennar Corp NYSE:LEN , with a P/E of 8x, dividend of 1.68%, very low debt-to-equity (0.17x), etc are likely to prosper, but always stay cautious with the dreaded "recession" announcement if it creeps in...
Thus, at $116.48, NYSE:LEN is in a personal buy-zone. In the near-term, I do see the potential for the price to dip near $100 as tariff and other economic red flags continue to be in focus.
Targets:
$131.00
$145.00
$157.00
$180.00
Already kicking the dead for a whileChart
From October 22 to march 24 we had a strong upside move.
Now we are in a deep retrace, the chart is reacting on further down moves with little emotion, I think we are kicking the dead for a while already.
In my opinion we can do even 150$ in 2 months. Than we will see.
Strategically
Trump most likely works for russian secret service. US is on the way to a regular dictatorship unfortunately, I have seen it many times before, all the same approach. He can destroy many important things and harm the usual economy in general, but the AI is so important that it could be the one of islands that will outperform despite the craziness.
BHP - Leading power in the Copper business!Overview of our analysis for BHP!
BHP Group Limited (BHP) is one of the world’s leading diversified natural resources companies, with operations in minerals, oil, and gas. Headquartered in Australia, BHP is a dominant player in the global commodities market, particularly in iron ore, copper, and coal.
Strong Financial Performance
Revenue Growth: BHP has consistently delivered strong revenue growth, supported by rising commodity prices and operational efficiencies.
Robust Profit Margins: The company's disciplined capital allocation and cost management strategies have enabled it to maintain high profit margins.
Dividend Yield: BHP offers an attractive dividend yield, making it a preferred choice for income-focused investors.
Copper Market Leadership
Strategic Copper Operations: BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile is the world’s largest copper-producing mine, providing significant leverage to the rising demand for copper.
Green Energy Transition: Copper plays a vital role in renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles, positioning BHP to benefit from the global energy transition.
Investment in Growth: BHP is actively investing in expanding its copper production, further solidifying its leadership in this critical sector.
Diversified Portfolio and Resilience
Balanced Commodity Exposure: BHP's diversified commodity mix, including iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal, reduces reliance on any single market, providing stability in volatile conditions.
Long-Term Contracts: The company maintains long-term contracts with key customers, ensuring stable revenue streams.
Operational Excellence: Continuous investments in technology and automation have enhanced operational efficiency and safety.
Sustainability and ESG Commitment
Net Zero Commitment: BHP has set ambitious targets to achieve net-zero operational emissions by 2050.
Sustainable Mining Practices: The company implements innovative technologies to reduce its carbon footprint and water usage.
Community Engagement: BHP is actively involved in community development programs, strengthening its social license to operate.
Entry: 49.63
Target: 73.01
SL: 36.30 - We are currently sitting on strong support zone for the company , which gives us a good heads up for a strong uptrend ahead, the SL is set up on the previous low if we see a huge cooldown in the overall commodity market, but at the current low supply of Copper we beleive that this is just deffensive point to protect the trade.
ETH Bottomed last week!This chart illustrates the ratio of the market capitalization of the top three stablecoins and that of Ethereum (ETH).
The correlation is quite evident, as anticipated.
We are likely approaching a phase where these stablecoins will be deployed, with Ethereum being a key beneficiary, signalling that we are entering a period of increased risk appetite and overall market buoyancy.
#ALTS
#USDT
#USDC
#DAI
#ETH
Ksolves India Ltd: A Software Solutions Powerhouse GrowthIntroduction:
Ksolves India Ltd, a software development and IT solutions provider, has emerged as a promising player in the technology landscape. With a diverse range of services, strategic partnerships, and a growing client base, the company has demonstrated its ability to cater to the evolving needs of businesses across various sectors. As a stock market wizard with expertise in both technical and fundamental analysis, let's dive deep into the key aspects of Ksolves India Ltd and explore its investment potential. Fundamental Analysis:
Business Overview:
Ksolves India Ltd, incorporated in 2014, is engaged in software development, enterprise solutions, consulting, and providing IT solutions to companies across sectors such as Real Estate, E-commerce, Finance, Telecom, and Healthcare. The company is known for its expertise in Big Data, Data Science, Salesforce, DevOps, Java & Microservices, OpenShift, and Penetration Testing, among other technologies.
Revenue Breakdown:
Ksolves' revenue is primarily driven by its software services, which account for 97% of its total revenue. The remaining 3% comes from products and customization. Geographically, the company's largest market is North America, contributing 66% of its revenue, followed by India (23%), Europe (7%), and the Rest of the World (4%).
Clientele and Partnerships:
Ksolves' client base is widely diversified, with over 40 IT services clients across 25+ countries. The company's top 5 clients contribute 33% to its revenue. Ksolves has also forged strategic partnerships with industry leaders such as Salesforce, Adobe, Odoo, and Drupal Association, further strengthening its service offerings and market presence.
Financial Performance:
Ksolves has demonstrated consistent growth in its financial performance. Over the past few years, the company has witnessed a steady increase in its sales, operating profit, and net profit. The operating profit margin (OPM) has remained in the range of 40-45%, indicating efficient operations and cost management.
Technical Analysis:
Fibonacci Retracement:
The Fibonacci retracement drawn connecting the low of Rs. 811 (11-month depth) to the high of Rs. 1,470 shows that the current market price has broken above the 0.5 Fibonacci level, indicating the potential for further upside movement.
Trend Analysis:
The overall trend for Ksolves India Ltd appears to be bullish, with the stock price consistently making higher highs and higher lows. This suggests a strong positive momentum in the stock, which could continue in the near future.
Investment Thesis:
Growth Potential:
Ksolves India Ltd's diversified service offerings, strategic partnerships, and growing client base position the company well to capitalize on the increasing demand for IT solutions across various industries. The company's focus on emerging technologies like Big Data, AI, and Machine Learning further enhances its growth prospects.
Geographical Expansion:
The company's strong presence in North America, coupled with its plans to expand in other regions like Europe and the Rest of the World, presents opportunities for Ksolves to diversify its revenue streams and tap into new markets.
Margin Stability:
Ksolves' consistent operating profit margins, ranging between 40-45%, demonstrate the company's ability to maintain profitability and operational efficiency, which is a positive sign for investors.
Technical Outlook:
The Fibonacci retracement analysis and the overall bullish trend in the stock price suggest that Ksolves India Ltd may continue to see upward momentum in the near to medium term, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
Conclusion:
Ksolves India Ltd, with its comprehensive software solutions, strategic partnerships, and strong financial performance, appears to be a promising investment opportunity. The company's growth potential, geographical expansion plans, and stable margins, combined with the positive technical outlook, make it a stock worth considering for investors seeking exposure to the thriving IT services sector. As a stock market wizard, I believe Ksolves India Ltd is well-positioned to capitalize on the industry's growth and deliver value to its shareholders.
Bullish ETH theories I think this could be a possible scenario for ETH's next breakout. I think it's possible because of the ETH ETFs that will most likely gain some traction over time, and retail will have to play "catch up" due to the price consolidation over these past years. The winds will turn, and I think everything will play out quite quickly when it happens.
I also think the FED will announce the end of QT today at the FOMC, which COULD trigger the next ETH bull run.
Looking at the ETH/BTC chart, I think this will trigger the next leg up and complete the pattern when looking at the weekly chart, testing the previous highs.
When I look at ETH relative to SOL/USD, it also looks bullish in the short term. I think this is quite reliable, but we will see over time. Although I think ETH will outperform both BTC and SOL and play catch-up with them both.
Conclusion: I have deployed most of my crypto portfolio to ETH now, believing ETH will give me the most beta in this bull run over the coming months. I know the sentiment looks quite bad at the moment for ETH, but I believe there is a saying: "Buy when others are fearful, sell when everybody is greedy." I think this is quite similar to value investing, and I believe there is a lot of value in BTC, ETH, and SOL.
Good luck! And share your thoughts, I like to discuss things like this. =)
Sabah Research Goes Long on Google: EW 2.0 Signals 45% Upside !Sabah Equity Research is taking a bullish stance on Alphabet (GOOGL) as Elliott Wave 2.0 suggests a 45% upside from current levels. With the stock trading at an attractive valuation, this presents a strong opportunity for long-term investors.
Elliott Wave 2.0 Predicts the Next Leg Up
After completing a healthy ABC correction, Alphabet is now primed for a Wave 3 expansion, historically the most powerful phase in the Elliott cycle. The technicals suggest that GOOGL’s recent consolidation is a launchpad for the next move higher.
Catalysts for Growth
Massive Cybersecurity Acquisition
Google’s parent company, Alphabet, is set to acquire Wiz, a leading cloud security firm, for over $30 billion—its largest deal ever. This strengthens Google’s cloud security dominance and accelerates revenue growth.
Undervalued Growth Potential
Despite its leading position in AI, cloud computing, and search, Alphabet trades at a discount compared to peers. This disconnect presents a compelling buying opportunity before sentiment catches up.
AI and Cloud Expansion
Google’s aggressive push into AI and cloud services positions it for massive future gains. With rising demand for AI-driven search, advertising, and enterprise solutions, Alphabet’s growth runway remains robust.
The Trade Setup: Positioning for the Upside
With Elliott Wave 2.0 pointing to a 45% rally, Sabah Equity Research sees Alphabet as a strong long-term play. The combination of cheap valuation, a game-changing acquisition, and a favorable technical setup makes this an ideal entry point.
Smart money is accumulating—will you? 🚀
S&P500 - What's next - Tariffs , Interest Rate decision? As of March 18, 2025, the S&P 500 index has experienced significant volatility, influenced by President Donald Trump's recent tariff policies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.
Scenario 1: Upside Potential Towards All-Time Highs
The S&P 500 has recently shown signs of recovery, with a 0.6% rise on Monday following a 2.1% surge on Friday, marking its best performance since Trump's re-election. This rebound suggests that, despite earlier corrections, investor sentiment may be improving.
If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain current interest rates in its upcoming meeting, it could signal confidence in the economy's resilience amid trade tensions. Such a stance might encourage further investment in equities, potentially propelling the S&P 500 towards its all-time highs. Additionally, some analysts believe that the market's recent correction is a healthy adjustment, and with improved earnings revisions and seasonal strength, a continued rally is plausible.
Scenario 2: Downside Risk Towards the 5,000 Support Level
Conversely, the aggressive tariff policies introduced by President Trump have raised concerns about inflationary pressures and potential slowdowns in economic growth. UBS analysts project that if the U.S. implements a 60% import tax on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on other imports, the S&P 500 could end next year at 5,200, an 11% decline from its recent record close.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimates that the current tariff plans could lead to a 5% drop in the S&P 500 in the coming months, as increased costs may squeeze corporate profit margins. If the Federal Reserve responds to these inflationary concerns by maintaining or even raising interest rates, borrowing costs could rise, potentially dampening consumer spending and business investment. Such developments might exert downward pressure on the S&P 500, bringing it closer to the 5,000 support level.
Summa Money
Our conclusion.
The S&P 500's trajectory in the near term is intricately linked to the outcomes of trade policies and monetary decisions. While the market has demonstrated resilience, the dual forces of tariff-induced economic adjustments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance will play pivotal roles in determining whether the index ascends towards new highs or retreats to key support levels.
In these volatile times, it is definitely a tough time to predict how the market would move , so this is why we are looking into the different options as how things would pan-out in the upcoming months in regards to the S&P500!
Positive outcome - Enter here with a target just below the ATH at 6,000 points, with your stop loss being above the bottom at 5,125 points
Negative outcome - Entere here with a target around the bottom at 5,000 , with a stop loss around the resistnace 5,750
I am interested to hear out your thoughs on this analysis and overall the idea behind whats happening with the U.S. economy and what would be the reaction for the S&P500!
Neutral or sell COLPALThis is a clear case of raised valuations across most of the stocks. As seen in the Revenue Grid indicator, this stock was trading at 8 to 10 of Price to Revenue ratio, but from July 2023 it suddenly started going up and went to 18 times it's Revenue per share. Why? God knows! :)
Now naturally coming back to it's historic valuation. To get to it's fair price, within a short duration, such as couple of months, levels of 2230 can be seen. Happy Trading :)
TON Go to $4.5?Durov was finally released, he returned to Dubai, and #TON perked up by +16% in a day.
That's it, now people will love the CRYPTOCAP:TON Ecosystem again, a bunch of new tapals will come out.
The key resistance level will be at $4.5
We can also go to $2.7
The break of the global triangle upwards may be in Seb-Oct
Correction time The TON Ecosystem was used wisely, they identified weak points, protected their market from Competitors with protectionism, mini apps in Telegram should only use TON, now Liquidity will accumulate more inside Telegram, and not go to Solana.
The game starts again)) and we are ready for it.