Lululemon: Unwarrented Selling Offers Excellent OpportunityNASDAQ:LULU Lululemon Athletica's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with revenues rising 16% and gross margins growing by 4.3%. However, increased competition and price-conscious consumers have led to a decreased market cap and short-term headwinds.
Gross margins remain at 58% leading the industry and showing the prominence of the brand.
Lululemon has had great success internationally and continues to grow in Mainland China, and continues to remain a prominent brand in the United States.
Full-year diluted EPS came in at $12.20, jumping 83% y/y. With a P/E ratio of 30.57x, this entails a great deal of underlying intrinsic value.
During the year, Lululemon opened 56 net new stores, ending the year with 711 stores, showing no signs of slowing down and continues to innovate forward to keep up with competitors. While the retail environment in the United States has been recently challenging, I believe that the long-term fundamentals of the company outweigh any short-term headwinds, and the recent selloff provides an excellent opportunity for value.
I encourage potential investors to remain unemotional in volatile price action, and trust the fundamentals and management of a prominent brand and a very cash-positive business.
My one year price target remains at the technical support level of $515 with an upside of 44%.
Value
Thought on Joel Greenblatt's ROIC:E/P approachINDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
youtu.be/GUV3GHUePRk?si=lHLAJSyDMlfbbbzb
Joel Greenblatt has decrypted the secret of valuation, that there are 2 ultimate variables in determining the intrinsic value, namely ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) and E/P (the inverse is P/E).
This insight is in line with the essences enshrined in Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's valuation mental models :
1. “Investors should remember their scorecard isn't computed using the Olympic-diving method:
Degree-of-difficulty doesn’t count.
If you're right abt a business whose value is largely dependent on a single key factor that is both easy to understand & enduring, the payoff is the same as if you should correctly analyze an investment alternative characterized by many constantly shifting & complex variables.
- Warren Buffett -
2. “The higher return a business can earn on its capital, the more cash it can produce, the more value is created. Over time, it is hard for investors to earn returns that are much higher than the underlying business’ return on invested capital.”
- Warren Buffett -
3. “Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, you’re not going to make much difference than a six percent return – even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with one hell of a result.”
- Charlie Munger -
Which approach do you prefer?
Joel Greenblatt's ROIC:E/P approach or Peter Lynch's PEG approach?
Is it possible to merge Joel Greenblatt's ROIC:E/P approach and Peter Lynch's PEG approach into a single formula?
Kindly figure it out, it's worth to do so.
$KLSE-INFOTEC: Thought: Profit Per EmployeeINDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
Wishfully the Gross Profit per Employee could return, stage by stage, to RM 740k for FYE2024 & RM 848k for FYE 2025 with ever increasing Revenues.
With RM 740k Gross Profit per Employee, that would translate to around RM 370k Net Profit per Employee.
With RM 848k Gross Profit per Employee , that would translate to around RM 424k Net Profit per Employee.
Or more, if the regional subsidiaries expansion in China, India, Singapore and Japan can bear more growth fruit in Revenues with the recent high GPM and NPM maintained.
$KLSE-INFOTEC FYE2023 Number of workforce (Employees)INDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
Number of workforce (Employees):
26 permanent + 5 contract
= 31 employees in total
(dated LPD 23 May 2022, reported in IPO Prospectus dated 20 June 2022, page 132)
60 employees in total
(dated 31 May 2023, reported in NST News).
The number of employees have been doubled in a year, indicating rapid and aggressive APAC regional expansions have taken place.
Important point emphasized in the NST news: The team is still growing in line with its expansion drive.
That would translate into that more employees are expected onboard driven by continual business growth and in turn additional employees will push growth further on.
$KLSE-INFOTEC FYE 2023 Segments' GPM StudiesINDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
FYE 2023 Segments' GPM Studies:
IT Infrastructure Solutions Segment GPM
= (19,142÷43,551)×(43,145÷43,551)
= 43.54%
Cybersecurity Solutions Segment GPM
= (990÷2,994)×(2,990÷2,994)
= 33.02%
Managed IT Services and Other IT
Services Segment GPM (Recurring)
= (16,686÷22,378)×(20,563÷22,378)
= 68.52%
Trading of Ancillary Hardware and Software Segment GPM
= (935÷5,374)×(5,231÷5,374)
= 16.94%
Pretty Impressive!
TMF long trade setup 3X Bullish TreasuriesTMF on the 4H chart is set up at the bottom descending support trendline of a symmetrical
triangle in the approach to the apex. Price appears ready to reach for the upper descending
resistance trend line and the Echo Indicator ( Lux Algo ) makes that forecast. Current
ambiguities in a rate cut soon upcoming will make values of Treasuries a complicated matter.
I am taking a long trade targeting 54 with a stop loss at 50 in consideration of the triangle
pattern. I have existing positions in TLT.
Catching the Wave: BFIC/USDT Trade SetupWelcome to my trade idea for BITMART:BFICUSDT (BFIC/USDT), where I aim to capitalize on technical signals.
For our entry strategy, we have identified two potential points:
First Entry: Our initial entry point is at 9.8115. This decision is supported by a bullish 1-hour FAIR Value Gap (FVG) signal.
Second Entry: We will consider a second entry opportunity at 9.5002.
To mitigate risk, our stop-loss (SL) for both entries combined is set at 9.1682. Additionally, it's advisable to practice dollar-cost averaging (DCA) if the price retraces to 9.2716, further minimizing potential losses.
Regarding our target price (TP), we're eyeing the all-time high (ATH) at 39.9. While it's natural to anticipate when this level might be reached, it's essential to remain flexible. You have the option to take profits before the full TP is achieved, ensuring you lock in gains along the way.
In summary, we're riding BFIC/USDT with technical finesse, keeping our eyes on the charts. Stick to the plan, stay flexible, and let's ride those waves to profit town! 🚀📈
Like (boost), follow, comment and share this idea!!!
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LTC/USDT Price Movement ScenarioBelow is the price movement scenario for LTC.
Analyzing the asset's dynamics since mid-2022, we can observe a clear upward trend, indicating investor confidence and potential growth prospects. However, despite this, the asset is still significantly below its all-time highs, providing an opportunity for entry into positions.
Looking at the trading volume profile, we see that market participants continue to act in line with the current trend, accumulating positions to support price growth.
Currently, the asset is trading below the resistance level at $115.86, which can be considered as a potential entry point. It is expected that continued trading below this resistance level may lead to further strengthening of positions and subsequently to a breakthrough of this level.
The target level at $297.70 can be considered as the next key level.
Infoline Tec Group @KLSE: Revenue FYE 2024Forecast by APEX SECINFOTEC@KLSE
Apex Securities
academy.apexetrade.com/filestore/research-pdf/20240226_Infotec_4QFY23_Results.pdf
Revenue FYE 2024Forecast by Apex Securities
= 120.5M
Assuming the Net Profit Margin remains at 26.8%:
Net Profit FYE 2024 Forecast
= 120.5×0.268
= 32.294M
$KLSE-INFOTEC: EV/EBIT ÷ EBIT Growth MultipleINDEX:KLSE -INFOTEC
EV/EBIT ÷ EBIT Growth Multiple
EV@RM0.805
= 0.805×363,229+389+119+407+107-10,780-8,445
= 274,196.345
EBIT
= 25,792+38
= 25,830
EV/EBIT
= 274,196.345÷25,830
= 10.6154217964
EBIT Growth
= 100×(25,830÷16,683-1)
= 54.8282682971%
EV/EBIT ÷ EBIT Growth Multiple
= 10.6154217964÷54.8282682971
= 0.1936122027 Extremely Low, Extremely Undervalued
SWIMMING with the WHALES, a dangerous move, NEXT TARGET $Whales waited, Retail traders PLUNGED, then WHALES SOLD. Know your game. Dont get maneuvered into the FEARLESS CROUD.
Whales red downtrend regression. Showing a deep analysis behind the scenes of BITCOIN. Shows who’s in, who’s out within the time as the white trend moves. Follow each zigzag and know how it all started.
Next target is kept secret: this helps keep smart money intruders from changing directions.
Internet Computer (ICP) Buy Limit Target! Don't miss this!!!What is ICP (brief overview):
The Internet Computer Protocol (ICP) bridges the gap between traditional programming and blockchain-based development. Smart contracts on ICP are expressive and scalable like traditional apps, but benefit from the trustless and decentralized execution of a blockchain.
ICP is designed for a practical balance in the tradeoff between scalability and decentralization.
In the chart, We can see its history has went down hill by a long shot. HOWEVER< behind the scenes, they have been working on a variety of features suck as creating a ckBTC that can be used to purchase items IRL!! ICP also has a variety of employees working on changing the web3 to become Web 3.0.
Looking @ current_price, It would make sense for price to drop in between the green horizontal lines. Depending where you enter, you can gain from 28%-37% at the new high. I highly suggest paying yourself just a little bit from the profit and leave the remaining amount for higher prices.
I strongly believe after all theses years, it is time for ICP to shine and show what i has been cooking behind the scenes.
Long DAL as it looks to crack the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement I bought DAL today as a long-term buy. This is a violation of a restraining order I put on myself, given my lousy track record with airline stocks. Why go there, now?
In bullet points:
NYSE:LUV is getting smoked today, based on news that NYSE:BA will be unable to get anywhere close to its 2024 delivery commitments to LUV, thanks to the ongoing 737 MAX dumpster fire. DAL flies Airbus jets on the routes that compete with LUV and is poised to benefit.
DAL, also today, issued a news release that they see Q1 revenue in the upper half of their guidance range. During an industry conference today they also stated that 9 of the top 10 booking days in their history have occurred this year. They see no demand slow-down.
At the same conference, Jamie Baker, Morgan Stanley's airline and aircraft leasing analyst, stated that the big 3 airlines currently trade at a fwd P/E which is 16 turns lower than the overall market, something that hasn't happened since the 2008 Great Financial Crash.
DAL is the only airline to own a refinery in order to mitigate jet fuel cost increases. This refinery has caused large losses in the past, during times of lower fuel prices. The facility is now fully upgraded and jet fuel prices are rising. Therefore I expect this refinery to become a source of relative competitive strength .
At the beginning of the COVID pandemic, DAL more than doubled their total debt to cover the cost of job buyouts for 17k employees in the face of evaporating demand, as well as the ongoing fleet rejuvenation. This has cost them their investment grade rating from S&P and Fitch, but has also led to a much younger and more fuel efficient fleet. Over the last 3 years, they were able to repay SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:8B of the $18B in added debt and expect that, by the end of 2024, they will have their debt metrics back to investment grade standards.
Once the company reaches investment grade, they plan to expand capital returns to shareholders.
The stock has reached the 61.8% Fib retracement level from the 2023 meltdown. It failed there in November of last year and January of this year. I expect that the stock will succeed this time around, and at least recapture the 2023 high.
If I am wrong, I will probably stop out of the stock just underneath the 50% retracement level at $40.
I don't have the greates conviction for this buy since, again, I don't have a great track record with airlines. But I do think that DAL is an excellent operator, and I'll give this one a chance. If I am wrong, it'll again be years before I touch another airline.
INFOLINE TEC GROUP@KLSE : OCROICₘₒ𝒹 based ValuationINFOLINE TEC GROUP@KLSE
OCROICₘₒ𝒹 based Valuation
OCROICₘₒ𝒹
= 100×(6,325+(7,419+29,115+2,105)-(1,836+6,312+3,312+5,216))÷(58,317+4,879+407+107+(7,419+29,115+2,105)-(1,836+6,312+3,312+5,216))
= 33.0185706115
OCPS
= (6,325+(7,419+29,115+2,105)-(1,836+6,312+3,312+5,216))÷363,229
= RM 0.0778792442
OCROICₘₒ𝒹 based Intrinsic Value (min) with 3.5% inflation rate
= RM 0.0778792442×(1-(1÷1.035)^33.0185706115)÷(1-(1÷1.035))
= RM 1.5634207107
OCROICₘₒ𝒹 based Intrinsic Value (max)
= RM 33.0185706115×0.0778792442
= RM 2.5714613246
EL jumps on analyst upgrade LONGEL like ULTA was beaten down in covid times. It jumped in 2021 and fell in 2022 and 2023.
2024 might be the year they thrive again. On the weekly chart, EL is back to the support of
its levels of 2018. With an analyst upgrade coming from Bank of America it is now getting a
bit of attention. Trend strength and relative strength were down. I see this as a good entry
for a new long position in EL while also looking at ULTA. Targets are the fib zone and a
correction / consolidation area on the downtrend so 200 and 250. Now is the time to invest
in female beauty.....
CMG to split price SHORTCMG has announced a split. Makes sense to make shares more affordable but fractionals are
widely available. CMG may be fundamentally challenged by the underpinnings of the fast food
markets. that is overeating and rising prices. In the meanwhile the anti-obesity and anti-
diabetes trends are pushing hard led by the bological injectable meds from LLY, NVO and
others. One third of the people eat one half of the food and now an effective treatment
for that addiction is becoming increasingly available. The writing is on the wall and food biz
executives can read that writing. Enough said.
I am going short on CMG. It's best days of growth may behind it. The company announced plans
for 4000 more stores nationwide. Really? Time will tell. I vote with my wallet. My position
will not be small. The predictive algo has its forecast. My education included both medicine
and engineering. I understand the power of biology and mathematics. I deeply respect
both.