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XAUUSD, Short Term Investment, DowTheoryGold continues to exhibit a bearish trend in the short and mid-term timeframes while maintaining a neutral stance in the long term. The Dow Theory is continuing its trajectory. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings indicate overbought conditions in the short and mid periods. Bearish sentiment prevails in the market. Bearish Engulfing encountered on 1H & 4H. Dollar on other end shows more Hawkish tune last week than expected. Our recommendation entails identifying four trading opportunities suitable for scalpers and day traders, emphasizing a bearish outlook.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by syedshanifahmed
NXU & Lynx: Could we see a merge/acquisition in the future?Nxu's Strategic Partnership with Lynx Motors Nxu, Inc. (NASDAQ: NXU), a company specializing in innovative EV charging and energy storage solutions, has announced a strategic partnership and investment in Lynx Motors. This partnership is outlined in a letter of intent (LOI) and represents a significant step in Nxu's commitment to electrification and the future of electric vehicles (EVs). Key Details of the Partnership Strategic Investment: Nxu's investment in Lynx Motors is structured as a share exchange, with $3 million in Nxu shares being exchanged for $3 million in Lynx shares. This investment will be reflected as an asset on Nxu's balance sheet. Board Representation: As part of the transaction, Nxu will receive a seat on Lynx's Board of Directors, indicating a deep level of involvement and influence in Lynx's strategic direction. Collaborative Development: Nxu aims to assist Lynx in leveraging its vehicle and charging technology to expedite the development of electrified products. Lynx Motors is known for reimagining classic vehicles with modern amenities and powertrains, blending tradition with innovation. Financial Support: Lynx will issue an interest-free promissory note of $250,000 to Nxu in exchange for a $250,000 bridge loan, further solidifying the financial collaboration between the two companies. Professional Analysis Complementary Strengths: This partnership leverages Nxu's expertise in EV charging and energy storage with Lynx's focus on electrifying classic vehicles. It's a strategic alignment that combines technological innovation with a unique market niche. Market Positioning: Lynx's approach to electrifying popular classic cars, coupled with its robust reservation list, suggests strong market demand. Nxu's involvement could accelerate Lynx's path to significant revenue and profitability. Impact on Nxu's Market Compliance: The partnership is a step towards Nxu's compliance with Nasdaq's listing standards, potentially increasing shareholder equity and market confidence. Future Prospects: The collaboration between Nxu and Lynx, especially in the realm of EVs, aligns with the broader trend towards electrification in the automotive industry. This partnership could position both companies favorably in a rapidly evolving market. Conclusion The strategic partnership between Nxu and Lynx Motors represents a synergistic collaboration that could enhance both companies' positions in the EV market. By combining Nxu's charging technology with Lynx's innovative approach to vehicle electrification, this partnership holds the potential for significant advancements in the EV sector, offering promising prospects for both companies and their stakeholders.
NASDAQ:NXULong
by Terrapins
3
Bitcoin's upper price limit will exceed $190K in 2025.In my long-term strategy, I have deeply explored the key factors influencing the price of Bitcoin. By precisely calculating the correlation between these factors and the price of Bitcoin, I found that they are closely linked to the value of Bitcoin. To more effectively predict the fair price of Bitcoin, I have built a predictive model . Based on historical experience, the limit value of price deviation has been determined, and the upper and lower limits of the price have been calculated. Observing the price of Bitcoin and the price upper and lower limits can guide trading. According to current data, calculate the upper limit of Bitcoin price in 2025. Historical simulations prove that, the prediction results of this model correspond quite high with actual values, fully demonstrating its reliability in predicting price fluctuations. When the future is uncertain and the outlook is unclear, people often choose to hold back and avoid risks, or even abandon their original plans. However, the prediction of Bitcoin is full of challenges, but I have taken the first step in exploring. 📖 Table of contents: 🏃 Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price 🏃 Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model 🏃 Step 3: Find indicators for warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops 🏃 Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025 🏃 Step 5: Verify the performance of indicators for warning 🏃 Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price 📖 Correlation Coefficient: A mathematical concept for measuring influence In order to predict the price trend of Bitcoin, we need to delve into the factors that have the greatest impact on its price. These factors or variables can be expressed in mathematical or statistical correlation coefficients. The correlation coefficient is an indicator of the degree of association between two variables, ranging from -1 to 1. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a value of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation. For example, if the price of corn rises, the price of live pigs usually rises accordingly, because corn is the main feed source for pig breeding. In this case, the correlation coefficient between corn and live pig prices is approximately 0.3. This means that corn is a factor affecting the price of live pigs. On the other hand, if a shooter's performance improves while another shooter's performance deteriorates due to increased psychological pressure, we can say that the former is a factor affecting the latter's performance. Therefore, in order to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin, we need to find the factors with the highest correlation coefficients with the price of Bitcoin. If, through the analysis of the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the data on the chain, we find that a certain data factor on the chain has the highest correlation coefficient with the price of Bitcoin, then this data factor on the chain can be identified as the factor that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. Through calculation, we found that the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. From historical data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is basically consistent with the movement direction of the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the past ten years of data, we obtained a daily correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of Bitcoin blocks and the price of Bitcoin. 🏃 Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model 📖 Predictive Model: What formula is used to predict the price of Bitcoin? Among various prediction models, the linear function is the preferred model due to its high accuracy. Take the standard weight as an example, its linear function graph is a straight line, which is why we choose the linear function model. However, the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks is extremely fast, which does not conform to the characteristics of the linear function. Therefore, in order to make them more in line with the characteristics of the linear function, we first take the logarithm of both. By observing the logarithmic graph of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks, we can find that after the logarithm transformation, the two are more in line with the characteristics of the linear function. Based on this feature, we choose the linear regression model to establish the prediction model. From the graph below, we can see that the actual red and green K-line fluctuates around the predicted blue and 🟢 green line. These predicted values are based on fundamental factors of Bitcoin, which support its value and reflect its reasonable value. This picture is consistent with the theory proposed by Karl Marx in "Capital" that "prices fluctuate around values." The predicted logarithm of the market cap of Bitcoin is calculated through the model. The specific calculation formula of the Bitcoin price prediction value is as follows: btc_predicted_marketcap = math.exp(btc_predicted_marketcap_log) btc_predicted_price = btc_predicted_marketcap / btc_supply 🏃 Step 3: Find indicators for early warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops 📖 Warning Indicator: How to Determine Whether the Bitcoin Price has Reached the Bear Market Bottom or the Bull Market Top? By observing the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart mentioned above, we notice that the actual price often falls below the predicted value at the bottom of a bear market; during the peak of a bull market, the actual price exceeds the predicted price. This pattern indicates that the deviation between the actual price and the predicted price can serve as an early warning signal. When the 🟠 Bitcoin price deviation is very low, as shown by the chart with 🟩 green background, it usually means that we are at the bottom of the bear market; Conversely, when the 🟠 Bitcoin price deviation is very high, the chart with a 🟥 red background indicates that we are at the peak of the bull market. This pattern has been validated through six bull and bear markets, and the deviation value indeed serves as an early warning signal, which can be used as an important reference for us to judge market trends. The calculation formula for the price deviation of Bitcoin is as follows: btc_price_bias = btc_marketcap_log - btc_predicted_marketcap_log Specifically, we can find the rule by watching the Bitcoin price log and the Bitcoin price deviation chart. For example, on August 25, 2015, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value of -1.11; on December 17, 2017, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.69; on March 16, 2020, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -0.91; on March 13, 2021, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.1; on December 31, 2022, the 🔴Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -1. For conservative reasons, we set the lower limit value of the Bitcoin price deviation warning indicator to the larger of the three lowest values, -0.9, and the upper limit value to the smaller of the two highest values, 1. When we add the upper and lower limit values of the Bitcoin price deviation to the forecast price, we obtain the 🟠 upper limit and 🟤 lower limit of the price. This can intuitively guide trading. When the Bitcoin price is below the price lower limit, buy. When the Bitcoin price is above the price upper limit, sell. The calculation formula for the upper and lower limits of the price is as follows: btc_price_upper_limit = math.exp(btc_predicted_price_log + btc_price_bias_upper_limit) btc_price_lower_limit = math.exp(btc_predicted_price_log + btc_price_bias_lower_limit) 🏃 Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025 According to the data calculated on February 25, 2024, the upper limit of the Bitcoin price is $194,287, which is the price ceiling of this bull market. The peak of the last bull market was on November 9, 2021, at $68,664. The bull-bear market cycle is 4 years, so the highest point of this bull market is expected in 2025, and the upper limit of the Bitcoin price will exceed $190,000. The closing price of Bitcoin on February 25, 2024, was $51,729, with an expected increase of 2.7 times. 🏃 Step 5: Verify the performance of indicators for warning 📖 Model accuracy validation: How to judge the accuracy of the Bitcoin price model? The accuracy of the model is represented by the coefficient of determination R square, which reflects the degree of match between the predicted value and the actual value. I divided all the historical data from August 18, 2015 into two groups, and used the data from August 18, 2011 to August 18, 2015 as training data to generate the model. The calculation result shows that the coefficient of determination R squared during the 2011-2015 training period is as high as 0.81, which shows that the accuracy of this model is quite high. From the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart in the figure below, we can see that the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value is not far, which means that most of the predicted values can explain the actual value well. The calculation formula for the coefficient of determination R square is as follows: residual = btc_close_log - btc_predicted_price_log residual_square = residual * residual train_residual_square_sum = math.sum(residual_square, train_days) train_mse = train_residual_square_sum / train_days train_r2 = 1 - train_mse / ta.variance(btc_close_log, train_days) 📖 Model reliability verification: How to affirm the reliability of the Bitcoin price model when new data is available? Model reliability is achieved through model verification. I set the last day of the training period to February 2, 2024 as the "verification group" and used it as verification data to verify the reliability of the model. This means that after generating the model if there is new data, I will use these new data together with the model for prediction, and then evaluate the accuracy of the model. If the coefficient of determination when using verification data is close to the previous training one and both remain at a high level, then we can consider this model as reliable. The coefficient of determination calculated from the validation period data and model prediction results is as high as 0.83, which is close to the previous 0.81, further proving the reliability of this model. 📖 Strategy: When to buy or sell, and how many to choose? We introduce the Bitcoin 5A strategy. This strategy requires us to generate trading signals based on the critical values of the warning indicators, simulate the trades, and collect performance data for evaluation. In the Bitcoin 5A strategy, there are three key parameters: buying warning indicator, batch trading days, and selling warning indicator. Batch trading days are set to ensure that we can make purchases in batches after the trading signal is sent, thus buying at a lower price, selling at a higher price, and reducing the trading impact cost. In order to find the optimal warning indicator critical value and batch trading days, we need to adjust these parameters repeatedly and perform backtesting. Backtesting is a method established by observing historical data, which can help us better understand market trends and trading opportunities. When the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation is below -0.9, that is, when the Bitcoin price is lower than the lower price limit, buy. When it is higher than 1, that is, when the Bitcoin price is higher than the upper price limit, sell. In addition, we set the batch trading days as 25 days to implement a strategy that averages purchases and sales. Within these 25 days, we will invest all funds into the market evenly, buying once a day. At the same time, we also sell positions at the same pace, selling once a day. 📖 Adjusting the threshold: a key step to optimizing trading strategy Adjusting the threshold is an indispensable step for better performance. Here are some suggestions for adjusting the batch trading days and critical values of warning indicators: - Batch trading days: Try different days like 25 to see how it affects overall performance. - Buy and sell critical values for warning indicators: iteratively fine-tune the buy threshold value of -0.9 and the sell threshold value of 1 exhaustively to find the best combination of threshold values. Through such careful adjustments, we may find an optimized approach with a lower maximum drawdown rate (e.g., 11%) and a higher cumulative return rate for closed trades (e.g., 474 times). The chart below is a backtest optimization chart for the Bitcoin 5A strategy, providing an intuitive display of strategy adjustments and optimizations. In this way, we can better grasp market trends and trading opportunities, thereby achieving a more robust and efficient trading strategy. 📖 Performance evaluation: How to accurately evaluate historical backtesting results? After detailed strategy testing, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results, we need to carry out a detailed performance evaluation on the backtest results. The key evaluation indices include: - Net value curve: As shown in the rose line, it intuitively reflects the growth of the account net value. By observing the net value curve, we can understand the overall performance and profitability of the strategy. The basic attributes of this strategy are as follows: Trading range: 2015-8-19—2024-2-18, backtest range: 2011-8-18—2024-2-18 Initial capital: 1000USD, order size: 1 contract, pyramid: 50 orders, commission rate: 0.2%, slippage: 20 markers. In the strategy tester overview chart, we also obtained the following key data: - Net profit rate of closed trades: as high as 474 times, far exceeding the benchmark, as shown in the strategy tester performance summary chart, Bitcoin buys and holds 210 times. - Number of closed trades and winning percentage: 100 trades were all profitable, showing the stability and reliability of the strategy. - Drawdown rate & win-loose ratio: The maximum drawdown rate is only 11%, far lower than Bitcoin's 78%. Profit factor, or win-loose ratio, reached 500, further proving the advantage of the strategy. Through these detailed evaluations, we can see clearly the excellent balance between risk and return of the Bitcoin 5A strategy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by lilibtc
CleanSpark Major Potential CleanSpark Inc - NASDAQ:CLSK This is a unique mid tier BTC miner that is edging ahead of Cipher Mining in terms of size, production and reserves held (See below for the pecking order of 4 BTC miners). The CLSK Trade - Ideal entry would be bounce off 200 DSMA - Risk/Reward from here is 5.55 which is not bad - Stop Loss placement at 200 DSMA or POC Chart Positives - High Volume is ideal signifying increased interest ,float and momentum - Price above POC - Price above 200 DSMA - Pennant price congestion reaching its decision point The Pecking Order for BTC Miners covered to date 1. Marathon Digital NASDAQ:MARA have 156,600 rigs & mined 825 BTC in Mar 2023 (12,964 BTC Reserves) 2. Riot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT have 95,904 rigs and mined 592 Bitcoin in June 2023 (6,696 BTC reserves) 2. Clearspark NASDAQ:CLSK have 87,936 rigs and mined 575 Bitcoin in July 2023 (1,061 BTC reserves) 3. Cipher Mining NASDAQ:CIFR have 70,000 rigs and mined 493 bitcoin in May 2023 (518 BTC reserves) Clearspark has earned its place above Cipher mining however both companies have been investing much of their Bitcoin into expanding their production lines this year which is why they have lower reserves than the likes of the well established RIOT. We will need to keep a close eye on both going forward as they both fully intend to continue to expand. I am already invested in NASDAQ:CIFR with a small initial position (previously shared a chart on this). I'll be looking for NASDAQ:CLSK exposure between here and the 200 DSMA. The risk reward is reasonable and the chart is attractive. PUKA
NASDAQ:CLSKLong
by PukaCharts
16
HOW-TO use Bitcoin 5A Strategy@LilibtcIn our long-term strategy, we have deeply explored the key factors influencing the price of Bitcoin. By precisely calculating the correlation between these factors and the price of Bitcoin, we found that they are closely linked to the value of Bitcoin. To more effectively predict the fair price of Bitcoin, we have built a predictive model and adjusted our investment strategy accordingly based on this model. In practice, the prediction results of this model correspond quite high with actual values, fully demonstrating its reliability in predicting price fluctuations. When the future is uncertain and the outlook is unclear, people often choose to hold back and avoid risks, or even abandon their original plans. However, the prediction of Bitcoin is full of challenges, but we have taken the first step in exploring. Table of contents: Guide Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model Step 3: Find indicators for warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops Step 4: Develop a Bitcoin 5A strategy Step 5: Verify the performance of the Bitcoin 5A strategy Opportunities Usage Restrictions Guide: 1. On the main interface, modify the code, find the BTCUSD trading pair, and select the BITSTAMP exchange for trading. 2. Set the time period to the daily chart. 3. Select a logarithmic chart in the chart type to better identify price trends. 4. In the strategy settings, adjust the options according to personal needs, including language, display indicators, display strategies, display performance, display optimizations, sell alerts, buy prompts, opening days, backtesting start year, backtesting start month, and backtesting start date. Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price Correlation Coefficient: A mathematical concept for measuring influence In order to predict the price trend of Bitcoin, we need to delve into the factors that have the greatest impact on its price. These factors or variables can be expressed in mathematical or statistical correlation coefficients. The correlation coefficient is an indicator of the degree of association between two variables, ranging from -1 to 1. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a value of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation. For example, if the price of corn rises, the price of live pigs usually rises accordingly, because corn is the main feed source for pig breeding. In this case, the correlation coefficient between corn and live pig prices is approximately 0.3. This means that corn is a factor affecting the price of live pigs. On the other hand, if a shooter's performance improves while another shooter's performance deteriorates due to increased psychological pressure, we can say that the former is a factor affecting the latter's performance. Therefore, in order to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin, we need to find the factors with the highest correlation coefficients with the price of Bitcoin. If, through the analysis of the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the data on the chain, we find that a certain data factor on the chain has the highest correlation coefficient with the price of Bitcoin, then this data factor on the chain can be identified as the factor that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. Through calculation, we found that the 🔵number of Bitcoin blocks is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. From historical data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the 🔵number of Bitcoin blocks is basically consistent with the movement direction of the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the past ten years of data, we obtained a daily correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of Bitcoin blocks and the price of Bitcoin. Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model Predictive Model: What formula is used to predict the price of Bitcoin? Among various prediction models, the linear function is the preferred model due to its high accuracy. Take the standard weight as an example, its linear function graph is a straight line, which is why we choose the linear function model. However, the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks is extremely fast, which does not conform to the characteristics of the linear function. Therefore, in order to make them more in line with the characteristics of the linear function, we first take the logarithm of both. By observing the logarithmic graph of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks, we can find that after the logarithm transformation, the two are more in line with the characteristics of the linear function. Based on this feature, we choose the linear regression model to establish the prediction model. From the graph below, we can see that the actual red and green K-line fluctuates around the predicted blue and 🟢green line. These predicted values are based on fundamental factors of Bitcoin, which support its value and reflect its reasonable value. This picture is consistent with the theory proposed by Marx in "Das Kapital" that "prices fluctuate around values." The predicted logarithm of the market cap of Bitcoin is calculated through the model. The specific calculation formula of the Bitcoin price prediction value is as follows: btc_predicted_marketcap = math.exp(btc_predicted_marketcap_log) btc_predicted_price = btc_predicted_marketcap / btc_supply Step 3: Find indicators for early warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops Warning Indicator: How to Determine Whether the Bitcoin Price has Reached the Bear Market Bottom or the Bull Market Top? By observing the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart mentioned above, we notice that the actual price often falls below the predicted value at the bottom of a bear market; during the peak of a bull market, the actual price exceeds the predicted price. This pattern indicates that the deviation between the actual price and the predicted price can serve as an early warning signal. When the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation is very low, as shown by the chart with 🟩green background, it usually means that we are at the bottom of the bear market; Conversely, when the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation is very high, the chart with a 🟥red background indicates that we are at the peak of the bull market. This pattern has been validated through six bull and bear markets, and the deviation value indeed serves as an early warning signal, which can be used as an important reference for us to judge market trends. Step 4: Bitcoin 5A Strategy Formulation Strategy: When to buy or sell, and how many to choose? We introduce the Bitcoin 5A strategy. This strategy requires us to generate trading signals based on the critical values of the warning indicators, simulate the trades, and collect performance data for evaluation. In the Bitcoin 5A strategy, there are three key parameters: buying warning indicator, batch trading days, and selling warning indicator. Batch trading days are set to ensure that we can make purchases in batches after the trading signal is sent, thus buying at a lower price, selling at a higher price, and reducing the trading impact cost. In order to find the optimal warning indicator critical value and batch trading days, we need to adjust these parameters repeatedly and perform backtesting. Backtesting is a method established by observing historical data, which can help us better understand market trends and trading opportunities. Specifically, we can find the key trading points by watching the Bitcoin price log and the Bitcoin price deviation chart. For example, on August 25, 2015, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value of -1.11; on December 17, 2017, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.69; on March 16, 2020, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -0.91; on March 13, 2021, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.1; on December 31, 2022, the 🟠Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -1. To ensure that all five key trading points generate trading signals, we set the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation to the larger of the three lowest values, -0.9, and the smallest of the two highest values, 1. Then, we buy when the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation is below -0.9, and sell when it is above 1. In addition, we set the batch trading days as 25 days to implement a strategy that averages purchases and sales. Within these 25 days, we will invest all funds into the market evenly, buying once a day. At the same time, we also sell positions at the same pace, selling once a day. Adjusting the threshold: a key step to optimizing trading strategy Adjusting the threshold is an indispensable step for better performance. Here are some suggestions for adjusting the batch trading days and critical values of warning indicators: • Batch trading days: Try different days like 25 to see how it affects overall performance. • Buy and sell critical values for warning indicators: iteratively fine-tune the buy threshold value of -0.9 and the sell threshold value of 1 exhaustively to find the best combination of threshold values. Through such careful adjustments, we may find an optimized approach with a lower maximum drawdown rate (e.g., 11%) and a higher cumulative return rate for closed trades (e.g., 474 times). The chart below is a backtest optimization chart for the Bitcoin 5A strategy, providing an intuitive display of strategy adjustments and optimizations. In this way, we can better grasp market trends and trading opportunities, thereby achieving a more robust and efficient trading strategy. Step 5: Validating the performance of the Bitcoin 5A Strategy Model accuracy validation: How to judge the accuracy of the Bitcoin price model? The accuracy of the model is represented by the coefficient of determination R square, which reflects the degree of match between the predicted value and the actual value. I divided all the historical data from August 18, 2015 into two groups, and used the data from August 18, 2011 to August 18, 2015 as training data to generate the model. The calculation result shows that the coefficient of determination R squared during the 2011-2015 training period is as high as 0.81, which shows that the accuracy of this model is quite high. From the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart in the figure below, we can see that the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value is not far, which means that most of the predicted values can explain the actual value well. The calculation formula for the coefficient of determination R square is as follows: residual = btc_close_log - btc_predicted_price_log residual_square = residual * residual train_residual_square_sum = math.sum(residual_square, train_days) train_mse = train_residual_square_sum / train_days train_r2 = 1 - train_mse / ta.variance(btc_close_log, train_days) Model reliability verification: How to affirm the reliability of the Bitcoin price model when new data is available? Model reliability is achieved through model verification. I set the last day of the training period to February 2, 2024 as the "verification group" and used it as verification data to verify the reliability of the model. This means that after generating the model if there is new data, I will use these new data together with the model for prediction, and then evaluate the accuracy of the model. If the coefficient of determination when using verification data is close to the previous training one and both remain at a high level, then we can consider this model as reliable. The coefficient of determination calculated from the validation period data and model prediction results is as high as 0.83, which is close to the previous 0.81, further proving the reliability of this model. Performance evaluation: How to accurately evaluate historical backtesting results? After detailed strategy testing, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results, we need to carry out a detailed performance evaluation on the backtest results. The key evaluation indices include: • Net value curve: As shown in the rose line, it intuitively reflects the growth of the account net value. By observing the net value curve, we can understand the overall performance and profitability of the strategy. The basic attributes of this strategy are as follows: Trading range: 2015-8-19—2024-2-18, backtest range: 2011-8-18—2024-2-18 Initial capital: 1000USD, order size: 1 contract, pyramid: 50 orders, commission rate: 0.2%, slippage: 20 markers. In the strategy tester overview chart, we also obtained the following key data: • Net profit rate of closed trades: as high as 474 times, far exceeding the benchmark, as shown in the strategy tester performance summary chart, Bitcoin buys and holds 210 times. • Number of closed trades and winning percentage: 100 trades were all profitable, showing the stability and reliability of the strategy. • Drawdown rate & win-loose ratio: The maximum drawdown rate is only 11%, far lower than Bitcoin's 78%. Profit factor, or win-loose ratio, reached 500, further proving the advantage of the strategy. Through these detailed evaluations, we can see clearly the excellent balance between risk and return of the Bitcoin 5A strategy. Opportunity: Capturing factor changes Changes in factors provide us with valuable trading opportunities. The 🟠orange line in the chart below represents the factor indicator when its value on February 20, 2024 is -0.32, which is greater than the threshold of -0.9. This could be a signal worth paying attention to. Opportunities like this do not come up often, so we need to stay alert and act fast. Usage Restrictions: Strategy Application in Specific Situations Please note that this strategy is designed specifically for Bitcoin and should not be applied to other assets or markets without authorization. In actual operations, we should make careful decisions according to our risk tolerance and investment goals.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by lilibtc
3
XRP: Chris Larsen Wallet Hack... or STAGED Dump?📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 Yesterday, news came out that a huge XRP wallet has been hacked, stealing $112 million worth of XRP. According to information currently available, the hack was as a result of compromised security keys. It turned out to be the wallet of none other than tech-giant Chris Larsen, Ripple Co-founder. (suspicious already?🤔 let's dive in...) One of many strange incidents surrounding this hack is that it was discovered by a Twitter user and popular blockchain security expert ZachXBT. I imagined that one would notice if your personal accounting holding 9 digits of XRP worth $112 million got hacked, but apparently not. It took ZachXBT a public Twitter post to make the apparently unaware team at Ripple take action. This makes you wonder, if ZachXBT didn't pick it up... would this have gone unnoticed and been swept under the rug, or would Chris Larsen have come out and admitted it? I guess we'll never know. But with Ripple's dodgy actions in the past (ultimately leading to the SEC case), one can only guess. Not too long ago, Jed McCaleb finally sold off the last of his enormous amount of XRP which he had been dumping monthly for years. One Twitter user voiced a very valid concern; "are all Ripple execs holding 9 digits of xrp, is there something in place to prevent them from dumping all at once on the market?" It just seems like despite the markets best bullish trends, the constant overwhelming selling pressure is just too high for XRP to reach new highs. It's sad to see such a industry leader and once-promising project fall to new lows. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck CRYPTOCAP:XRP BINANCE:XRPUSDT BITSTAMP:XRPUSD BINANCE:XRPUSDT.P
Short
by CryptoCheck-
7
Is ZM Finally Buyable?ZM longs have been absolutely eviscerated since 2020. One of the quintessential names of the 2020 exuberance, it has since seen a 90% drawdown from the 2020 high to the 2023 low late last year. However, ZM has seen a trading range between 60 and 75 for almost a year now. This basing has clear analogs to Wyckoff accumulation, and the failed breakdown in October with low volume and no follow through could have finally put in a durable bottom. The 50SMA crossed above the 200SMA in January, providing a clue about the possibility for a shift in trend on this beaten down name. If ZM sees markup and can break out of this accumulation range, it is possible we could see a gap fill of the August 2022 earning gap around 97.4. As a trade, a tight stop at the recent low of 63.06 presents a very favorable setup, with a potential > 10:1 RR. There was a time when ZM was a clear no-touch, and for good reason. But after the absolute destruction in value over the last few years, to finally allow price to re-align with more reasonable valuation levels, this name can finally be taken back out of the penalty box.
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by CycleTargets
Unveiling the Golden Opportunity: Why XAUUSD/Gold is My FavoriteJoin me on an immersive journey as I delve into the unparalleled allure of trading XAUUSD/Gold. In this comprehensive exploration, I'll unravel the intricacies of trading gold, from its status as a timeless safe-haven asset to its remarkable resilience in the face of market volatility. Delve deeper into the historical significance of gold, its correlation with global economic trends, and the unique opportunities it presents to traders. Through expert analysis and insightful commentary, I'll showcase why XAUUSD/Gold remains my preferred pair for unlocking consistent profits and navigating the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets. Buckle up and discover the golden secrets to trading success with me.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDEducation
by ControllaFX
Doge bullish journey to the Moon + the watch link!Following the announcement of the launch of Doge to the Moon, the bulls have dominated the market and the supply ranges have been greatly reduced, and the price of Doge as well as the price of Bitcoin are getting higher, and it is expected that this trend will continue until the landing of Doge on the Moon's surface. Dogecoin is supposed to launch to the Moon from the launchpad in next several hours, by SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket. To watch the launch live, click on the following link: www.youtube.com or this: www.youtube.com
COINBASE:DOGEUSDLong
by GeraldMann
2
Dollar depreciation ahead of Inflation and CPI this week. The market sentiment appears to be that the expectation should be that Inflation and price level data for the U.S economy coming in on Wednesday. The trend with bad U.S at the moment seems to be reasonable to infer some depreciation in the Dollar rate as market participants want to get out and begin front running the Fed ahead of their first anticipated rate cut. Therefore if this hypothesis is true and price levels and inflations continue to grow at a slower pace I believe that will confirm my thesis on intra-week Dollar depreciation. This is a very short-term position overall and I do anticipate the Dollar to rebound depending on how this plays out as I feel as though there is more room for Dollar appreciation as the labour market remains tight and government spending seems at an all time high. It is hard at the moment at least for me to see sustained depreciation over the next quarter. Even though I have an end date for my domain it appears that it is not displaying. The end date for this position will be Wednesday at midnight.
Short
by MostlyFXcharts
INBS pumped on earnings crush= Watching for LONG maybeINBS crush earnings and went parabolic on an earnings beat. Basically, revenues fell but with belt-tightening and good CEO actions it bled less cash than expected. The tourniquet is working. The post-earnings pump was followed by a flush to the mid-Fib 0.5 support. Trader's got their reward and called it a weekend before lunch. The chop index fell into the consolidation zone and the MACD turned bearish. See the 5 minute chart image inserted to the left. The RSI lines are about 50 maybe with a crossdown impending. I have this on watch for a reversal up. Much will depend on general market strength on Monday. Biotechnology is projected as a hot sector now. This stock was among the hottest of the day. Hoping for a bullish continuation knowing that a trend down is likewise possible.
NASDAQ:INBS
by AwesomeAvani
2
PRAX Analysis after new securities sales, and recent agreements8791877 = Shares as of 31st December + New sales to BCPE @ initial book value of 10.12 + (443k shares @ 22.56) = 10.832665237 new book value + approx 4230000 of shares and warrants sales approx near @33.5 = approx 18.84$ / share + $5M in cash payment = 19.22$ / share Total Shares = 13021877 Anticipated quarterly loss between 2 to 3$ per share 264M$ on milestone achievements for development, regulatory and commercialization (subject to milestone achievements) Let's say milestones achievements takes between 6 mos to 2 years as follows: 1) 6 months scenario - development = loss of approx 4-6$ per share = +88M for development milestone achievement = -5$ loss + 19.22 + ( FWB:88M if milestone is achieved) = 20.597$ with milestone = 14.22$ without milestone 2) 1 year scenario - development+regulatory = loss of approx 8-12$ per share = +132M for development+regulatory milestones achievement = -10$ loss + 19.22 + ($132M if both milestones are achieved) + (or FWB:88M if only one milestone is achieved) = 9.22$ without any milestone = 15.97$ with one milestone = 19.35$ with both milestones 3) 2 years scenario - dev+reg+commercialization = loss of approx 16-24$ per share = +264M for development + regulatory + commercialization milestones achievement = -20$ loss + 19.22 + ($264M with 3 milestones) + (or $132M with two milestones) + (or FWB:88M with one milestone) = -0.78$ with no milestones = $5.97 with one milestone = $9.35 with two milestones = $19.49 with all 3 milestones These calculations assume there's no other additional securities sale than above.
NASDAQ:PRAXShort
by aniHotmail
Tesla Faces Turbulence as SAP Withdraws, Piper Slashes TargetsTesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle juggernaut led by Elon Musk, witnessed a sharp decline of nearly 6% in its stock value on Monday. This downturn was triggered by a dual blow – German software firm SAP's decision to cease its purchase of electric cars from Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) and Piper Sandler's reduction in the stock price target. As the electric automaker's shares plummeted to $177.27, marking their lowest point since May 2023, concerns loom over Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) market capitalization, with potential losses reaching a staggering $34 billion if the downward trend persists. SAP's Decision and Delivery Woes: The catalyst for the stock plunge came with the revelation that SAP, a prominent German software firm, has opted to no longer source company cars from Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ). Citing reasons such as delivery delays and price fluctuations, the move by SAP has added fuel to the fire, accentuating the challenges faced by the electric car giant. The German publication Handelsblatt reported the decision, sending ripples through the market and contributing to Tesla's already tumultuous week. Piper Sandler's Grim Outlook: Adding to the woes, Piper Sandler, a reputable brokerage, slashed its stock price target for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), citing lower delivery expectations for the year. The brokerage now expects Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to deliver 1.93 million vehicles in 2024, representing a modest growth rate of approximately 7%. This figure pales in comparison to the ambitious 50% growth target set by Elon Musk three years ago. The brokerage's concerns extend beyond the immediate future, expressing apprehension about potential price cuts due to an aging product lineup. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) grapples with these challenges, the stock price target was reduced from $295 to $225, intensifying the bearish sentiment surrounding the company. Market Dynamics and Valuation Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio of 57.75 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates is significantly higher than its peers such as Meta Platforms and Amazon.com, which have ratios of 24.10 and 40.97, respectively. This raises questions about the sustainability of Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) current valuation, given recent setbacks and the overall market dynamics. Elon Musk's Warning and Consumer Demand: CEO Elon Musk's warning about sluggish consumer demand due to high interest rates adds another layer of complexity to Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) challenges. Despite refreshing the styling and features of the Model 3 compact sedan, concerns linger about the impact of interest rates on consumer preferences, potentially impacting the demand for Tesla's offerings. Conclusion: As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) grapples with a confluence of challenges – from SAP's withdrawal to Piper Sandler's grim projections – the electric vehicle giant finds itself at a crossroads. The stock's recent downturn prompts investors and industry observers alike to closely monitor how Tesla navigates these turbulent waters. Whether the company can regain momentum, address delivery issues, and rekindle investor confidence remains to be seen, but one thing is clear – the road ahead for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is anything but smooth.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by DEXWireNews
$TSLA Long as Thursday Cyber Truck Event is upon us!NASDAQ:TSLA Cyber Truck Event is this Thursday; that being said we already know how NASDAQ:TSLA reacts to good news... I'm expecting some pullback to the lows of $231.97-226.54 then head towards 222.46-221.57 on bearish side... Expecting gap push to $241.07-$244.01 then comes $252.75-254.63 then follows $258.31-259.74 then $263.88-265.39 then follows the gap to $270-278 I'm expecting some pullback based off the 1hr/4hr timeframes first we should pullback then dip will be bought up as event gets closer. This is NFA, simple idea.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by calmstrades