Has the gold price ended its decline in the short term?OPEC unexpectedly cut production and international oil prices rose sharply. The market is worried that global inflation will pick up again, and it has increased the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the May policy meeting, helping the dollar index rise to a near-one-week high, which has a significant impact on gold prices.
Judging from the trend of gold, gold surged and fell again last Friday, and began to withdraw after reaching the highest level of 1987, and continued to reach the lowest level so far to reach near 1949. The range of retracement in the short term is also more than 40 US dollars. At the same time, the daily line is staggered. After the opening of the morning, the short-term moving average is directly under pressure, and the support below the short-term line is maintained in the area around 1945-50, then the role of this area is also very important, and once it continues to break the level, it will be possible for gold to continue in the later period.
Judging from the 4-hour chart, the pattern space of the gold price began to tilt downward, and the market turned short, and the support below focused on the 1933 position of the daily line, which is probably the target position for this decline!In terms of space, gold is still sweeping back and forth in a volatile structure, but the space and range are changing over time, which has also added a lot of difficulty to the recent operation of gold.At present, according to the rhythm of gold, we continue to treat gold with the idea of sweeping. This time we look at it after it rises, and then falls back again.
Short-term operation ideas: sell gold near the 1976 position, and add a position to sell gold near 1980-1981. The stop loss level and take profit level will not be set first. Later, I will notify the channel in time to set the direct operation and stop loss.
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Value
💮Review of the Aptos(APT) Project💮Hello! Today, let's review one of the ✴️cryptocurrency projects✴️ which is the talk of the town these days, the Aptos Project.
Today's project name is 💮 Aptos Project, shown as APT token💮.
As I have said before, I evaluate crypto projects based on various factors .👇
I have already introduced each of these factors with a brief explanation, so today, I will be looking at Aptos (APT) .
🔥Let’s get into it:
🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰
✅ Project Goals : Aptos is a Layer 1 Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchain that employs a novel smart contract programming language called Move, a Rust-based programming language independently developed by Meta (formerly Facebook)’s Diem blockchain engineers. The Aptos blockchain aims to achieve the following:
Scalability: To support a large number of transactions per second (TPS) and to minimize transaction💴 costs without sacrificing security. Aptos can theoretically achieve a throughput of over 150,000 TPS.
Security: To provide a robust and secure infrastructure that can protect against various attacks, including 51% attacks and other network disruptions.
Developer-friendly: To offer a user-friendly😊 interface and a suite of developer tools that make it easy for developers to build and deploy dApps on the Aptos blockchain.
Interoperability: To ensure that the Aptos blockchain can interact with other blockchain networks and traditional databases, allowing for greater interoperability and flexibility.
By achieving these goals, the Aptos blockchain aims to enable a new generation of decentralized applications to operate more efficiently, securely, and transparently than traditional centralized applications. This is why I have scored Aptos’ project goals 7/10.
✅ Founders : Aptos was founded by Mohammed Sheikh, also known as Mo Sheikh, and Avery Ching. Mo holds a Master's in Business Administration, and his resume includes BlackRock, the Boston Consulting Group, Ethereum builder Consensys, and Meta (formerly Facebook). Avery Ching holds a PhD in Computer Science🖥 and has spent most of his career working as a principal software engineer at Meta, which is one of the highest positions in the company. This is why I have scored the Aptos founders 8/10.
✅ GitHub : Aptos Labs has a public GitHub repository that contains the open-source code for their Aptos blockchain platform. The repository includes various software components, including the core blockchain protocol, smart contract libraries, and various developer tools.
The Aptos Labs GitHub repository is a valuable resource for developers interested in building decentralized applications (dApps) on the Aptos blockchain. The repository is regularly updated with new features, bug fixes, and other improvements, and developers are encouraged to contribute their own code and ideas to the project.
In addition to the open-source code, the Aptos Labs GitHub🌐 repository also includes documentation and tutorials that guide how to use the platform and build dApps on top of it. This makes it easier for developers to get started with the Aptos blockchain and to take advantage of its unique features and capabilities. The Aptos GitHub repository currently has over 400 contributors with more than 17,000 commits which made our experts score Aptos’ Github 8/10.
✅ Inflation Rate : Aptos launched its Mainnet with an initial total supply of 1 billion tokens in October. With new tokens minted through transaction fees and staking rewards, the total supply of Aptos has reached 1.024 billion during the past 6 months. This means Aptos has had 2.4% inflation over 6 months, and knowing this, I can say that the $APT token inflation rate is at least 4% annually. This inflation rate isn’t awful, but it also isn’t very great looking at Bitcoin’s current 1.8% inflation or Ethereum being deflationary, which is why I have scored $APT token’s inflation rate 6/10.
It's important to note that inflation rates can change over time as the underlying blockchain protocol is updated or as market conditions shift, so it's possible that the inflation rate of the $APT token could change in the future.
✅ Community : Aptos team has been actively working to grow their community through social media activity and other methods. The Aptos Twitter account has over 375K followers, their Discord channel has almost 150K😈 members, and they are also active on platforms such as LinkedIn and Medium. Therefore I have scored the Aptos community 7/10.
✅ Whitepaper : The Aptos whitepaper explains the founders’ vision in detail. It talks about the new smart contract programming language called Move, which is based on Rust. Also, the logical data model for Aptos is thoroughly explained in the whitepaper. The technologies used in Aptos, such as parallel transaction processing for achieving higher throughputs, are also explained in the whitepaper. The Aptos Whitepaper being complete and detail-oriented, has made our experts score it 8/10.
✅ Developers : Since the project was founded by people with great experience in tech companies, its developers can only be up to their standards. According to the Aptos website, more than 350 developers are currently working on the Aptos blockchain. The GitHub repository for Aptos also shows more than 400 contributors submitting commits. But you should also know that even though the devs claimed that the Aptos blockchain could process 150,000 TPS, on the day of its Mainnet launch, only 4 transactions were getting confirmed per second, and the blockchain was facing a lack of users. This is why I have scored the Aptos developers 7/10.
✅ Tokenomics : Aptos launched its Mainnet with an initial total supply of 1 billion tokens, of which 510 million were distributed to the community, 190 million to core developers, and the rest to the Aptos Foundation and private investors. Tokens held by private investors and core contributors are subject to a 4-year lockup schedule. The Aptos Foundation holds 410 million tokens, which will be released over the next 10 years, with 125 million available initially to support ecosystem projects, grants, and community growth initiatives. Rewards for token holders who stake their tokens start at 7% annually and decrease to a lower bound of 3.25%. Community sentiment has been critical of the large allocation for developers and also the Aptos team has not been transparent about their tokenomics and average retail investor has to really dig in to find some valuable information, so I have scored the Tokenomics for Aptos 6/10.
✅ Venture Capital Investors : Aptos collected $350 million from VC investors in a funding round. The investors included Tiger Global Management, Andreessen Horowitz, Paxos, BlockTower Capital, Circle Ventures, Multicoin Capital, PayPal Ventures, and more. But what raises concern is that Aptos could collect such capital before they had released a whitepaper or provided any details about their tokenomics. This is why I have scored the VC investors of Aptos 6/10.
✅ Competitor Comparison : What makes Aptos separate from all its competitors such as Solana, is its novel smart contract programming language Move. Solana’s founder has reportedly admitted in an interview that the Solana team is really concerned about a competitor L1 with a new execution layer. This, along with the fact that Move is a very developer-friendly language, could mean many devs leaving the Solana ecosystem in order to build on Aptos. Another difference between Aptos and other L1s that I should mention is that tokens on the Aptos blockchain are apparently controlled by the entity that issues them. This means that any token on the Aptos blockchain can be frozen, burned, or minted at will by whoever created it. This is an intentional design choice as the Aptos founder mentioned in a panel discussion that the Aptos blockchain can comply with regulations. This point creates concerns about censorship and the decentralization of the project, which is why I have scored Aptos compared to its competitors 7/10.
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🔔 In conclusion , Aptos obtained an overall score of 7/10 which is decent but there are a few concerns about this project that you should keep in mind if you’re considering investing in it. The biggest concern is the ridiculous disconnect between the supposed quality of the project and its transparency and organization. Aptos has technically been in development since 2017 and has had access to unlimited resources for research and development for years. It raised $350 million without a whitepaper or tokenomics, while Aptos Labs had 350 employees supposedly. So why didn’t Aptos completely hammer out the tokenomics of its $APT token? Aptos still lacks a YouTube channel; no information is available on who runs the validator nodes on the Aptos blockchain. There is also no information on which wallets belong to Aptos Labs and Aptos Foundation. These are all concerns that anyone should consider before inventing.
How will Gold rise and fall in the first week of April?The golden Friday first continued to be strong and high volatility, but the volatility was extremely narrow. It was considered a high-level pressure measurement. The upper level was continuously tested three times in 1985 and did not break. During the European market period, the market recovered, but the lower level only retreated to the 1973 line, and then there was a rebound in the shock, but there was still not much recovery momentum. Judging from the recent trend performance of gold and the rhythm of Friday's operation, although gold is more affected by emotions and is slightly stronger, it is difficult for the bulls to gain further recovery momentum. In the case of negative closing on Friday, the lack of continued recovery this week is a sign of insufficient follow-up of the bulls' momentum, which shows that although the market sentiment is extreme and bullish, different views have also emerged.
On the 4-hour chart, the upward channel in the chart is the key pattern. The suppression of the upper channel has withstood the test again on March 31. The current position close to the upper channel is also a good short-term entry position. At present, I am optimistic that gold will step out of a 4-hour bearish flag. The upper channel is the most suitable but slightly aggressive position for the profit-loss ratio, and the follow-up short orders after the lower channel breaks the level are less profitable but more stable.
So next week, in terms of gold operation ideas, I suggest that the rebound will be dominated by short selling at high levels, supplemented by long selling at low levels; the top will pay attention to the resistance of 1985, and the bottom will pay attention to the support of 1962.
DXY $USD Rip USDOLLERThere are several events that are challenging the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy. These events include:
Saudi Arabia and China agreed to build a refinery using the Chinese Yuan instead of the US dollar, which could reduce demand for the US dollar in the global market.
China and France completed the first LNG trade using the Chinese Yuan, suggesting a shift towards using the Yuan for international trade.
Russia considering using the Chinese Yuan as a reserve currency, while China and Brazil agree to use it for trade settlements instead of the US dollar.
Saudi Arabia considering accepting the Chinese Yuan for oil sales.
BRICS countries announcing the development of a new currency.
The President of Kenya encouraged citizens to get rid of US dollars.
India settled trade in Indian rupees with certain countries rather than the US dollar.
The Chinese Yuan surpasses the Euro to become Brazil's second-largest currency in foreign reserves.
Russia holds 33% of all reserves in the Chinese Yuan according to IMF data.
China and Russia agreed to use the Chinese Yuan as a settlement currency.
Russian companies issued bonds in Yuan worth over $7 billion last year.
Meanwhile, the regional banking crisis has led to billions of US dollars being invested in crypto and gold. Since March 10th, Bitcoin is up 45% and gold is set to break $2000/oz. Over $225 billion has been withdrawn from US banks in just 2 weeks.
After the shock structure is over, where will the gold price go?In recent trading days, the volatility of gold has been relatively small, and there have been no major ups and downs. At present, it can be treated as range fluctuations. The rebound is limited and basically the rebound has stopped until a certain point. The same is true yesterday. The rebound to the vicinity of 1975 is still falling downwards, while the short-term support is near the 1950 position.Judging from the recent market trend, a large wave of trend processes must be confirmed twice before a large upward or downward trend can be achieved, so the short-term structure is still to build a shock range.
The current volatility range of gold has gradually narrowed to within the range of 1950-1975!Without the stimulus of news events, the probability of gold breaking the level is very small, and it will continue to go back and forth within the range.At present, the previous low level of the price of gold has become an effective support. It is not certain whether it can support the rise again, but it is certain that there is no room for the price of gold to fall again, and the potential energy is even more weak. The downward extension of strong support is located in the 1935-1933 area.At present, the 4-hour chart has entered the contraction and shock of the triangular range, and it has been maintained in the range for a short period of time. It has broken through and stood firm at 1975, so the bulls can continue to see the high of 1980-1986.For the time being, the top pays attention to the pressure of 1970-1975, and the bottom pays attention to the support of 1952-1955.
Short-term trading reference:
1.Sell gold near the 1974 position, stop loss level 1979, take profit level 1960-1955
2.Buy gold near the 1954 position, the stop loss level is 1949, and the take profit level is near 1968
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Is there room for gold to continue to fall?Although the weakening of the U.S. dollar has provided support for gold prices to a certain extent, because the dust has settled on the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank assets by First Citizen Bank, European and American bank stocks have risen sharply, suppressing the market's risk-averse demand for gold. Investors have scaled back safe-haven trading and turned to riskier assets. U.S. bond yields and U.S. stocks have risen, and gold is under further selling pressure.Judging from the recent trading days, the gold price has repeatedly surged above the 2000 mark and then fell back. The morale of the bulls has been obviously frustrated. Investors need to beware of the possibility of gold price shocks reaching the top.
Judging from the recent trend of gold, the high point began to show signs of M-head regression, and the short-term pressure fell back, and the continuous touch of the high point failed to continue, becoming a short-term high pressure zone.Although the upper side is under pressure, it is difficult to reverse the trend and become a unilateral downward market in a short period of time. Here, a range-oscillating market may be constructed.For the intraday market, pay attention to the suppression of the upward rebound in the short term. If the yellow metal is under pressure and stagnates, you can go short at a high level and continue to look down.
In the short-term operation, the rebound can pay attention to the pressure on the first line of 1973-1974, and the support can first look at the recent low of 1935.
Short-term trading reference: sell gold at the 1969-1970 position, stop loss level 1974, take profit level 1960-1955
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Gold bulls are brewing the next round of outbreak?Although the gold price yesterday did not reach the first line of 2010 that I expected, it reached the highest line of 2003, and it was only 7 US dollars away from the expected position of the first line of 2010.After gold surged to the 2003 line yesterday, it fell back in shock, and the market was gradually digesting the Fed's previous hints that it might suspend interest rate increases.But the market will continue to pay attention to whether the banking crisis spreads further.In addition, the increasingly tense geographical relations will also provide strong support for gold prices.
Judging from the current trend of gold, the gold price has fluctuated and fallen. It can be seen that there are a lot of selling at the 2000 position, which also shows that there will still be repeated market washing near the 2000 position.From the technical structure point of view, the current short-term gold price is too fast, so there is still a need for correction in the short-term, so the technical structure supports the repeated washing of gold prices.But on the whole, the upward trend has not changed, so until the trend has not changed, we can continue to maintain a bullish thinking.
In the short-term treatment, the top focuses on the pressure of the recent high of 2010, and the bottom focuses on the support near 1980.
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Why to follow 🌉Arbitrum🌉 (ARB)❗️❓As I have said before, I evaluate crypto projects based on various factors.👇
I have already introduced each of these factors with a brief explanation, so today, I will be looking at Arbitrum (ARB) , which will launch on Binance exchange on March 23rd. That is tomorrow.
🔥Let’s get into it:
🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰🔰
✅ Projects Goals : Technically, Arbitrum is an optimistic roll-up on Ethereum. To put it more simply, it is a suite of scaling solutions that provides faster speeds at a significantly
lower cost, with the same level of security as Ethereum. Since Ethereum users were very inconvenient during the last bull run due to the ridiculously high gas fees they had to pay, Arbitrum and other Layer2️⃣ scaling solutions became extremely necessary for the growth of user adoption in DeFi. That is why I have scored Arbitrum’s goals 10/10.
✅ Founders : Arbitrum is built by a company called Offchain Labs. Ed Felten, Steven Goldfeder, and Harry Kalodner are the co-founders of OffChain Labs🔬 and hence Arbitrum. Ed Felten is a computer science and public affairs professor at Princeton University. Steven Goldfeder has received a Ph.D. in philosophy from Princeton University, where he also worked at the intersection of cryptography and cryptocurrencies. Harry Kalodner also holds a Ph.D. in Computer Science from Princeton University. The co-founders' academic level and work experience made me score a 10/10 for the Arbitrum founders.
✅ Github : Since the founders are experienced computer scientists, users who are not tech-savvy don’t have to worry about Arbitrum’s code. The team is constantly working on updates to improve the Arbitrum networks🌐 making them easier to use with faster and cheaper transactions. But since there is still much more room to grow, the experts at I have scored Arbitrum’s Github 9/10.
✅ Inflation Rate : Arbitrum's $ARB token has a total supply of 10 billion and a maximum annual inflation rate of 2%. This is a decent inflation rate, so I have scored $ARB’s inflation rate 8/10.
✅ Community : Arbitrum’s user base mainly consists of OG Ethereum users who often transacted on Ethereum and started using Arbitrum due to the high gas fees. The Twitter account of Arbitrum has more than 610K followers👨🦰, and their Discord channel has more than 320K members. Also, with the launch of $ARB on March 23, the governance of Arbitrum starts, which enables the community to make decisions by themselves to grow the community further. This is why I have scored Arbitrum’s community 9/10.
✅ Whitepaper : Arbitrum’s whitepaper clearly states the project’s vision to the readers: providing scaling solutions to increase transaction speed and lower costs while staying as secure as Ethereum. The Arbitrum team has achieved many milestones till now and continues to do so, like the upcoming governance launch. This is why I have scored Arbitrum’s whitepaper 10/10.
✅ Developers : Since Arbitrum was founded by experienced computer scientists, the devs building Arbitrum are top quality which can also be realized by the number of projects building their DeFi protocols on Arbitrum. This is why I have scored Arbitrum’s developers 9/10.
✅ Tokenomics : The $ARB token distribution is as follows: 11.62% is airdropped to individual wallets, 1.13% is allocated to DAOs in the Arbitrum ecosystem, 17.53% goes to investors, 26.94% is allocated to the team, and future team, advisors, and the remaining 42.78% stays in the DAO treasury which can be governed by $ARB holders. This is an extremely fair token distribution, with the founding team receiving less than 30% of the total supply, so I have scored Arbitrum’s tokenomics 10/10.
✅ Venture Capital Investors : Arbitrum has a long list of VC investors, including Pantera Capital, Coinbase Ventures, Alchemy Ventures, and many more, which shows the credibility and the great vision of Arbitrum. This is why I have scored Arbitrum’s VC investors 10/10.
✅ Competitors Comparison : Arbitrum is one of the largest roll-ups providing scaling solutions for Ethereum, with over 3.5 million unique addresses on Arbitrum. But as an optimistic roll-up, Arbitrum faces heavy competition from other optimistic roll-ups like Optimisim and even ZK (Zero Knowledge) roll-ups. Each roll-up has its pros and cons, but without getting into the technical details, I have scored Arbitrum 8/10 in terms of competitor comparison.
⚠️ The overall score for Arbitrum is 9.3/10, which is an excellent score when evaluating a crypto project. But always remember that crypto tokens are generally risky assets that often face major volatility.
So you must do your research and even consider talking to an advisor before investing🤑 in any crypto project.
Gold prices are higher and are expected to hit 2010 points againDue to the Federal Reserve's hint that it is about to suspend interest rate increases, and Yellen's speech created a warming of bank risks, gold today continued yesterday's rally and edged higher again.The overall trend showed an incremental increase, reaching the highest level of 1983.7.
Judging from the trend of gold prices, yesterday's daily gold line closed as the mid-yang line, recovering all the mid-yin K-lines of the previous day. After the daily double-yin adjustment, the positive K-line recovered, and there were slight signs of a stop in the short-term, and the local area will temporarily enter a high level of volatility.It may remain in the high range and pull the saw back and forth, entering a daily-level shock correction.
Judging from the 4-hour level chart, the current short-term support is relatively firm, and the upper side is initially facing the first-line pressure of 1985, and the lower short-term support is on the first-line of 1965.Judging from the fragile sentiment of the market, gold still tends to rise. If it effectively stands above 1985 in the process of rising, the gold price is expected to hit the recent new high near the 2010 position again.
In the short-term treatment, the lower support is near 1965, and the initial pressure above is near 1985.
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Take advantage of Bitcoin's current transactional opportunitiesBecause it was too late to write a specific analysis just now, I reminded everyone in my channel to short the current price of Bitcoin. Then friends who keep up with the pace of trading, Bitcoin is basically shorting at the position above 28600.
Let me give you a detailed analysis of why Bitcoin is shorted in the short term at this position.Judging from the recent trend, the daily line has had an upper shadow line on the closing line for 6 consecutive trading days, proving that the upper pressure is strong enough.It is difficult to make an effective breakthrough upward in a short period of time, and yesterday's negative K-line proved that even if the currency price wants to continue to break upward, it will take a certain amount of time to make a pullback correction so that the currency price can accumulate upward momentum.
On the other hand, the price is overbought, which may also lead to short selling in the short term, thereby suppressing the price of Bitcoin.But there is strong buying support below. So here I think that Bitcoin will have a certain pullback and correction trend at least in the short term.In this regard, we can fully seize short-term trading opportunities to obtain benefits.
In the short-term processing, the pressure of 28700-28900 is concerned above, and the support of 27800-27300 is concerned below.
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Gold price bears regain control of the market?Philip Fisher once said that investment inevitably depends on luck in some places, but in the long run, good luck and bad luck will balance out, and continuous success must rely on skills and the application of good principles.
At present, the main rhythm of gold is still heavily affected by fundamental emotions, and the short-term technical trend is not expected to prevail, but technically it is still necessary to pay attention to and predict the position.
For the current market, gold has fallen into a consolidation stage after falling from its high, and the intraday upward movement has stagnated, so the current market may be further repaired and adjusted at a small level, and seek stronger support downwards.The current neckline resistance is in the 1960-1965 area.
Judging from the current strength of the rebound, the current risk aversion has cooled down, and short-term pressure measurement from 1950 to 1953 may be relatively difficult. It is very likely that it will be adjusted again after a short rebound, and the current short-term support is near the 1930 line.
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Dovish interest rate hike, good harvest in gold trading!The Federal Reserve is dovish and raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and gold's short-term increase has expanded to more than US220, reaching as high as 1966.55.In just a few minutes, have you grasped this wave of huge profits?
Before the interest rate decision, I have reminded that the limit price is set around 1945 in advance to order a buy, the take profit is set to 1960, and the stop loss is set to 1942. Only use the loss space of 3 US dollars to gain a profit space of 15 US dollars.Obviously, we got a profit of 15 US dollars.
Why is it necessary to set a limit price in advance to order to buy instead of choosing to sell?I give the following reasons:
1.Due to the spread of the banking crisis and the credit crisis, it is impossible for the Fed to choose to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, otherwise it will cause concerns about the global economy and exacerbate panic; therefore, the Fed will choose to raise interest rates modestly or not, and dovish interest rate increases will support the rise in gold prices.
2.Even if the Fed chooses to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, it will cause concerns about the global economy and the spread of panic will promote the inflow of funds into safe-haven asset gold, so gold will continue to rise after a short-term decline.
3.In addition, multiple supports below the technical side are strong, and there is limited room for gold to fall. After the recent decline, gold has a need to repair and rebound.I don't know how to analyze the technical aspects in detail. You can choose to take a look at the analysis of the previous article.
Based on the above, that's why I chose to set a limit price near 1945 in advance to order a buy, and of course I also achieved good results.Have you kept up with the pace of trading?
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The price of Bitcoin is brewing the next upward trendJudging from the recent trend of Bitcoin, it has been dealing with narrow fluctuations. It seems that the pressure on the top is relatively strong, making it difficult for Bitcoin to break through effectively in the short term, and the long-term ability seems to have been consumed.
In fact, from a cyclical point of view, since Bitcoin rose from the 19550 position, many times on the way up, it will make certain retracements or pauses to consolidate the bottom foundation to support Bitcoin to continue to maintain its upward trend.Although Bitcoin has paused recently, the short-term low is constantly rising, and in the process of testing the low, it has not destroyed the upward trend, so the current trend of Bitcoin is still healthy.
So overall, for Bitcoin's recent narrow volatility treatment, it is very likely that the next upward trend is brewing, and it is expected to hit the 30,000 position.In the short-term treatment, the lower support is near 27900-28000, and the initial pressure above is at the 29000 integer mark.
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
USD/JPY market forecast and trend analysisDue to the significant decline in US bond yields, investors have been prompted to bet that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. The peak of US dollar interest rates is expected to come. It seems that the pressure on the yen in terms of interest spreads is being lifted, and the yen has once again returned to a clear strong return posture.
Judging from the trend, USD/JPY is currently under pressure in the trend channel, and has recently fallen under pressure here many times, supporting USD/JPY to continue to fluctuate in the downward channel, thereby increasing the possibility of the pair approaching the next bearish target near 130.
In addition, USD/JPY has fallen under pressure many times near 132.65, which has consumed the upward momentum to a certain extent. When market psychological pressure is formed, some subsequent selling orders may trigger short-selling to make up for it, and push USD/JPY to open a market to make up for the decline.
In terms of trading ideas, USD/JPY: You can enter the market with short orders near 132.65 in small batches, and the short-term target is near 131.
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Bitcoin: Can the bulls hold on?Judging from the current trend of Bitcoin and the overall market sentiment, the pressure level of 28,500 above is too strong to break through in the short term. There is a need for Bitcoin to withdraw, but the 27,000 below is still the key support for Bitcoin.Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the recent high and stood near 28472, and then retreated to near 27300. It seems that Bitcoin will be trading sideways at least in the short term.
At present, the Bitcoin price is oscillating back and forth at a high level, and the pressure above is strong, making it difficult to break through in a short period of time. Even if the Bitcoin price can continue to rise, it will at least need to be confirmed by stepping back to accumulate upward momentum during the rise, so there is a demand for retracement in the short term.
On the other hand, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has increased significantly in the past week or so, which may also mean that BTC may face selling pressure.
In the short-term treatment, the lower support is near 27500, and the initial pressure above is near 28500.
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Valuing a stock - ROIC/PE - an interesting ratio
As I am both a longer term and shorter term investor and trader the notion of the best way to estimate if a stock is undervalued or over valued interests me. There seem to me a number of ways to go about doing this but I was interested to see if I could combine two traditional metrics that people look at into one measure and see if that told me anything interesting.
The two measures I am interested in are P/E ratio - typically used as an indicator of whether a stock is under or overvalued in terms of its price to earnings and of course sometimes reflecting also the expectancy of future earnings growth or reduction.
The second measure I was interested in is ROIC - Return on Invested Capital - a fairly good measure of how well a company martials the capital it has invested into producing returns.
So I decided to start checking a ratio of these two measures for a series of companies.
The ratio I am using is ROIC /PE.
When price goes up if EPS and ROIC are same then this ratio goes lower - and vice versa.
When ROIC goes up if PE and EPS are the same then this ratio goes higher - and vice versa.
When EPS goes up if ROIC and Price are unchanged then this ratio goes higher - and vice versa.
When PE ratio goes up then this ratio goes lower - and vice versa.
I found an interesting interplay of these factors across a range of stocks and ratios varying from below 1 up to in the twenties.
I'm still thinking about what this ratio is really telling me.
Here are two current examples which were correct for prices I think it was early last week.
NVDA
ROIC 12.3 PE 137 ROIC/PE RATIO - 0.09
ON SEMICONDUCTOR
ROIC 22 PE 18.23 ROIC/PE RATIO - 1.22
Based only on this ratio and looking at the ratio for various other stocks then NVDA looks very overvalued compared to say ON Semiconductor. Some stocks cam out with really high ROIC/PE ratios and its left me wondering if these are stocks that are really undervalued.
Of course the confounding factor in this that a high PE may be there because of expectations for strong future growth. But you'd have to have really strong growth in either ROIC or EPS - or a drop in stock price - for NVDA to come into ratios more like other stocks.
Im interested in any thoughts people have on this ratio as a pointer to overvaluation or undervaluation of a stock.
Thanks. ( Its my first public post - be gentle lol.
Safe-haven buying may push gold prices to new heightsDuring the Asian session on Monday (March 20), gold bottomed out and rebounded. It had previously fallen to around US 1,968.18 per ounce due to technical adjustment needs, and over the weekend the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss Central Bank jointly took coordinated actions to enhance market liquidity. UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse, which once cooled risk aversion, but this optimism quickly subsided, and buying on dips helped gold prices reverse their decline, and they are currently trading near US 2,000/ounce.
It is expected that gold prices will continue to be supported by safe-haven buying, and the market is also paying attention to the Fed's interest rate decision to be released this week. The market expects to raise interest rates by only 25 basis points. The wording is difficult to be hawkish. It may pave the way for the next meeting to suspend interest rate increases. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates before July, which is also expected to provide opportunities for gold prices to rise further.
Judging from the trend of gold, it is currently in a unilateral upward momentum. At present, the gold price has exceeded US 2,000/ounce, and the strong bulls have sufficient strength. In the absence of a greater weakening of the bulls, the short-term structure still maintains long expectations.If you change the bullish expectations of the bulls, it will require a greater reverse operation or obvious market news impact. Therefore, the short-term structure will still maintain the long-term expectations. Before there is a clear short signal, it is not easy to change the direction of the trend structure.
In addition, the intraday chart shows that the weekly trend point is above the 5-day moving average of the daily cycle 1960. As long as it does not fall below the support of this point, don't think that gold can have room for a sharp decline.For the intraday market, gold did not continue the rise at the end of Friday at the opening of the market, but fell back and adjusted. The current lowest is near 1968. Since the decline is not strong, then in the short term, the 1968 line supports bullish, and can be adjusted upward appropriately.
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GBP/USD: The weakness of the US dollar fuels the British poundToday GBP/USD continued Friday's rally and hit its highest level in 5 weeks at 1.2250.As investors reassess the possibility of the US Federal Reserve keeping policy interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, the broad weakness of the US dollar helps GBP/USD maintain its advantage.
Risk sentiment dominated the market in early Asian trading hours as the market reacted to the news that UBS Group agreed to acquire Credit Suisse Group.More importantly, the Federal Reserve has resumed daily swaps with the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide additional liquidity when needed.
The positive impact of these developments on market sentiment is still short-lived.The sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields shows that investors are repricing the Fed's policy outlook.According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday has fallen to less than 50%.
The British FTSE 100 index fell more than 1% at the beginning of the session, and U.S. stock index futures fell 0.4% to 0.8%, reflecting a risk-averse atmosphere.
Nevertheless, in the current environment, the dollar seems to have lost its attractiveness as a safe harbor.As investors become more and more worried about the deepening of the global financial crisis, they avoid betting on the Fed's active policy tightening, which will lead to a weakening of the dollar, which will lead to a strengthening of GBP/USD.
In the trend of GBP/USD, the effectiveness of breaking through the downward channel has been established, and a new upward trend is being re-established. In order to determine the effectiveness of the uptrend channel, GBP/USD will also step back in the short term while maintaining a good upward trend.While GBP/USD maintains its advantage, the effectiveness of the support at the top and bottom conversion position of the 1.220 line below can be determined. Therefore, the current support below is at the 1.220 line, while the initial resistance above is at the 1.227 position, and the strong resistance is at the 1.230 position.
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The three most worthwhile potential coins to invest in in 2023Today, I will reveal what I think is the best cryptocurrency portfolio in 2023.I think this portfolio will be the best altcoin in 2023.
1.Arweave (AR)
Arweave is a Blockchain-based decentralized platform that provides a permanent and tamper-proof data storage solution.It was launched in 2017 by a group of developers led by Sam Williams.The platform aims to solve the problem of data persistence by providing a cost-effective permanent data storage solution that is accessible to everyone.
A key feature of Arweave is that it uses a new consensus mechanism called proof of access (PoA).This mechanism is designed to be more energy-efficient than traditional proof-of-work (PoW) or proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanisms, and also allows faster transaction times.The working principle of PoA is to require nodes to prove that they have stored a certain amount of data on the Arweave network in order to participate in the consensus process.
Arweave also has a unique economic model designed to motivate data storage on the network.The platform uses a local cryptocurrency called AR to pay for storage.AR is also used to reward nodes that participate in the consensus process, which helps ensure the security and reliability of the network.As of March 2023, AR has a market capitalization of more than 1.5 billion US dollars.
A significant use case of Arweave is the creation of a decentralized social media platform.Since the data stored on Arweave is permanent and immutable, it provides a feasible alternative to traditional centralized social media platforms that are vulnerable to censorship and data leakage.
In short, Arweave is a blockchain-based platform that provides a cost-effective permanent data storage solution.Its unique consensus mechanism and economic model have helped it gain attention in the blockchain community, and have the potential to revolutionize the way we store and access data in the future.
2.Chainlink (LINK)
Chainlink (LINK) is a decentralized oracle network designed to connect smart contracts to real-world data so that they can interact with the outside world in a safe and reliable way.Launched in 2017, Chainlink has quickly become one of the most popular blockchain projects, with a market capitalization of more than US10 billion as of March 2023.
The idea behind Chainlink is to solve the trust problem in smart contracts.A smart contract is a self-executing program that runs on the blockchain and is designed to be executed automatically when certain conditions are met.However, these conditions are usually based on data outside the blockchain, such as stock prices or weather data.In order to ensure the accuracy and immutability of this data, smart contracts need to rely on oracles.
The oracle is a third-party service that can provide the data required for the execution of smart contracts.However, these oracles can be centralized, which means they are vulnerable to manipulation or attack.Chainlink tries to solve this problem by creating a decentralized oracle network that can provide reliable and secure data for smart contracts.
Chainlink works by connecting smart contracts to multiple nodes in its network.These nodes are operated by independent operators, who are motivated to provide accurate data by earning LINK tokens (the native cryptocurrency of the Chainlink network).When a smart contract needs data, it sends requests to multiple nodes in the network.The node then provides its own data, which is aggregated and verified by the Chainlink protocol to ensure accuracy and consistency.
One of the key features of Chainlink is its ability to provide data from off-chain sources (such as APIs and Web services).This means that smart contracts can be connected to a wide range of data sources, including traditional financial markets, weather services, and social media platforms.
Chainlink is also very popular in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi), it is used to provide reliable and secure price information for various DeFi protocols.This price information is essential to determine the value of various assets and execute transactions in the DeFi ecosystem.
In addition to technical features, Chainlink also has a strong and active community of developers and supporters.The project is led by Sergey Nazarov and Steve Ellis, who have a long history in the field of blockchain and smart contracts.Chainlink has also established partnerships with many large companies, including Google, Oracle, and SWIFT, which has helped increase its visibility and adoption.
In general, Chainlink is a promising project that aims to solve an important problem in the blockchain field.Its decentralized oracle network has the potential to revolutionize the way smart contracts interact with the outside world, and its growing ecosystem of developers and supporters shows that it will continue to be a major player in the blockchain industry in the coming years.
3.Uniswap(UNI)
Uniswap is one of the most popular decentralized exchanges in the cryptocurrency market.Uniswap is a decentralized exchange (DEX) built on the Ethereum blockchain, allowing users to trade Ethereum-based tokens without the need for intermediaries or central institutions.It was created by Hayden Adams in November 2018 and has since become one of the most widely used DEX in the cryptocurrency space.
The core of Uniswap is the use of an automatic market maker (AMM) system, which means it relies on a set of algorithms to determine the price of a given asset.This is in stark contrast to traditional centralized exchanges, which usually use order books to match buyers and sellers and determine asset prices.
The Uniswap agreement has two main components: the liquidity pool and the Uniswap token (UNI).The liquidity pool is a place where users can deposit their tokens to provide liquidity to the exchange. In return, they can get a portion of the transaction fees generated by the platform.On the other hand, Uniswap tokens are used for governance and allow holders to vote on important decisions related to the agreement.
As of March 2023, Uniswap has been rated as one of the top decentralized exchanges, and the market capitalization of UNI tokens exceeds US 10 billion, making it one of the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
One of the main advantages of using Uniswap is its decentralized nature, which means that it will not be subject to the same risks as centralized exchanges, such as hacking or government intervention.In addition, since Uniswap is built on the Ethereum blockchain, it benefits from the security and reliability of the Ethereum network.
Having said that, there are also some risks in using Uniswap.For example, the value of tokens held in the liquidity pool may fluctuate significantly depending on market conditions, which may cause liquidity providers to suffer losses.In addition, since Uniswap is a decentralized platform, there is no central authority to supervise the platform, which means that users need to be careful to avoid fraud.
Overall, Uniswap is a powerful and popular decentralized exchange that provides a series of benefits for cryptocurrency traders and investors.However, as with any investment in the cryptocurrency space, it is important to conduct your own research and carefully consider the risks before investing.
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How to use news and data reports to make transactions profitableFrom central bank interest rate resolutions, non-farm payrolls, PMI indexes, inflation rates and other data reports, to geopolitical developments, and even natural disasters, these are major news that foreign exchange investors cannot ignore.Because the trend of the currency is always guided by these major economic events and news developments, it is accompanied by trading opportunities.
Of course, not all news is worth trading, so we must be familiar with how economic events will affect currency market trends.For major transaction news and data reports, we can follow the following three steps:
1. Select news events that will cause price fluctuations
Foreign exchange traders tend to pay attention to certain key economic data that have an impact on interest rate speculation. These economic data include: central bank decisions and speeches, gross domestic product (GDP) data, employment data, inflation rate and trade balance.
2. Choose the right currency pair
Generally speaking, we will choose currency pairs with high liquidity. There are mainly the following 8 pairs: EUR/USD, USD/¥, AUD/USD, GBP/¥, EUR/CHF, and CHF/¥.The sufficient liquidity of currency pairs is conducive to us to use lower transaction costs to win huge profits through greater volatility.
3. Pay attention to the news release time and forecast results
We have to trade based on data expectations, that is, the actual announced results are compared with the predicted values.For example, if the non-farm payrolls report is better than expected, the dollar will generally rise, and EUR/USD may fall.
In addition, before the data is released, we need to check the price movement of the short-term chart (5, 10, 15-minute chart), and use the closing price to decide whether to trade the current data report.After the price trend is confirmed, open a position and set a take profit and stop loss.
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