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META Important Milestone!As you know, I am a long term investor. Thus, I usually buy stocks for the long term, and never short any equities due to shorting's unlimited risk. With a P/E ratio of 10, it would be reasonable to think that META is a good bargain considering its status as a social media giant. However: 1. META's Userbase is declining, something never seen before in the history of the company. 2. Competition like Google's Youtube and ByteDance's Tiktok is catching up and overtaking META 3. New Apple (AAPL) IOS changes, which made META's data collection process much harder, has and will adversely affect its ad revenue (which is 98+% of its total revenue) ---------- Specifically, the IOS change requires META to get the user's permission to collect data for Ads. Until now, data shows that only 33% of users allow META to collect their data for more personalized ads. I think you can see how this affects Ad revenue. Thus, the "metaverse" is the only thing that may/may not save META from its inevitable doom. However, that means that: 1. The metaverse needs to develop in the years ahead, and not just stay at a gaming level 2. META must have enough cash to fund research into the metaverse 3. It must dominate the metaverse industry Although I personally think that META is a lost cause, I choose not to label this as "#METAshort" because I think all investor have their own opinions. Here are some good points about META: 1. 10 P/E ratio (lower than S&P 500 average 2. META's adaptability 3. Technicals? (Not seen yet) I choose to write this now because META's Q3 results are tomorrow and are key to how META's stock and the metaverse will develop in the future. Anyway, thats all for my idea. Please leave a comment and boost this idea so it can go out to other investors! 😊 P.S. Someone give me coins :)
NASDAQ:META
by AlphaTigerInvestments
Developing A Dollar Bearish Strategy Using The Scientific MethodShould I Short USD? Yes or No? If yes, then how? If no, then why? The question is simple, but the answer may be complicated. Therefore, we will dive into the macroeconomics of the American economy, with consideration given the most significant factors influencing the value of USD. > OBSERVATIONS 1) Since March 2020, USD appears to have lost approximately 13% of it's market value. 2) Since March 2020, USD supply increased by $9.1 Trillion (COVID stimulus). datalab.usaspending.gov 3) Congress was recently asked to approve an additional $1.9 Trillion (COVID stimulus). context-cdn.washingtonpost.com > RESEARCH Part A: Three major external factors contribute to the value of USD... www.investopedia.com 1) Supply and demand: Exporting American products and services creates demand for USD, because foreign investors must exchange their currency for USD, in order to complete the transaction. Note: decreased exports = decreased demand = decreased USD value Note: decreased stock/bond issuance = decreased demand = decreased USD value 2) Sentiment and market psychology: Rising unemployment weakens the economy, reduces income, and slows consumption. If the US economy appears weak, foreign investors may sell-off their US securities, in favor of exchanging back to their national currency. Note: decreased employment = decreased consumption = decreased USD value Note: negative sentiment = decreased foreign investment = decreased USD value 3) Technicals: The release of government statistics (payroll data, GDP data, etc.) may help quantify whether the economy is strong or weak. Historical patterns generated by cyclical support/resistance levels and technical indicators also contribute to the movement of USD. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of all the finished goods and services produced (in this case, within American borders) www.investopedia.com Note: decreased employment = decreased GDP = decreased USD value Part B: Four major internal tools (utilized by the Fed) contribute to the value of USD... www.federalreserve.gov 1) Discount rate: The interest rate reserve banks charge commercial banks for short-term loans. 2) Reserve requirements: The portions of deposits that banks must hold in cash in vaults or on deposit. 3) Open market operations: The buying and selling of U.S. government securities (T-bills, bonds, and notes). 4) Interest on Reserves: The interest paid on excess reserves held at reserve banks. > HYPOTHESIS Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is increasing money supply. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining interest rates near zero. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining reserve requirements at zero. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is repurchasing government bonds on the open market. > EXPERIMENT Part A: Build a diversified dollar bearish portfolio. Include dollar bearish securities and commodities (FXC, FXE, UDN, GLD, IAU, DBC, DBP) Include International stock and emerging markets ETFs (open to all suggestions for this) Include foreign currencies (GBP, CAD, AUD, CNY, CHF, KRW, JPY, EUR) Include crypto currencies (BTC, ETH, LTC, and especially the DeFi sector) > RESULTS Pending... follow me for a monthly update to see if I get rekt, much love!
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn13791118
40
DXY and NDXBased on my findings each day the Dollar Index (DXY) went higher the Nasdaq Index (NDX) sold off. My new strategy during this market is to watch the DXY daily trend and trade in the opposite direction of the trend with the NDX. Today the DXY rallied $.83 (.75%) and the NDX is down (-.67%) premarket. When the market opens I will watch to see if the DXY continues its overnight rally or if it becomes exhausted throughout the day. This is on a day when NFLX rallied 10% overnight due to a strong earnings report released after market hours yesterday. Today TSLA is expected to release their earnings report after the market closes as well.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Bakerdeshun
1
Unit value of BTC walletsAt first this is an analysis just out of curiosity, maybe it doesn't mean anything... The marketcap of a cryptocurrency is obtained by multiplying the price by its number of units in circulation. Then: BTCUSD = U$ 19 K BTC_SUPPLY = 19,176 M units BTC MarketCap = BTCUSD x BTC_SUPPLY = $365.3 B What would happen if the market value were evenly distributed among all wallet addresses? Calculation: BTC MarketCap = $365.3 B Number of BTC's wallet addresses = 1,036 B Unit value per wallet = BTC MarketCap ÷ Number of BTC's wallet addresses = U$352 Graphically speaking, the value is in an interesting region, at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by andre_007
2
XRPUSDT - Opportunity of a LIFETIME‼📢 Don't Miss It !Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 As you guys know, I am notoriously bullish on XRP, even during a bearish market! Watch this quick 5min video to get a refreshing take on an undervalued altcoin with so much potential it might just go parabolic in the future. The SEC case is definitely a dark cloud that hands over Ripple but once it it settled I expect some major price action for XRPUSDT. In this chart I take a look at some fundamental analysis on why I am bullish on XRP. I also look at the immediate support zone and resistance zone as well as Fibonacci retracement. Interested in my view on the entire cryptocurrency market? Check out this idea on TOTAL : _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
by CryptoCheck-
24
cellectis alcls : begenning of a new cycle technicaly , it looks like the last phase of correction has ended, i.e the wave C( impulse with 5 waves) fundamentaly , cellectis is growing big, has very good product, it's an awesome company notice : i'm not a financial adviser i don't have anything to sell ( signal - education- etc..) I only post my ideas to force myself to be good and learn from anybody who want to engage in a constructive discussion please if you see anything wrong in my analysis, let me know thank you
EURONEXT:ALCLSLong
by ninodelsol
NASDAQ: No technical reason to go long!Hi Traders, This is my view for this week on: - NAS100 I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are. Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected. I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view. Pit DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by kitchen_trading
1
Correlation between FX and Equities! (Chicken or the Egg?)Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Traders all over the globe are constantly looking for an edge, something that's going to give them an extra indication on market directional movements prior to them unfolding. I know from personal experiences and from chatting people at the firm that many traders lean towards finding correlation between the equities market and the FX market. There are a lot of analysts out there that say the equities market is what moves the FX market, and in return there are a lot of people that say the FX market is what moves the equities market. So, which one is it? Reality is will never know. There have been many of times where the FX market and shows clear indication of direction and then about a day later or a few hours later we have the equities follow suit. For example the RBA's recent decision to hike interest rates by .25% instead of 0.5% sent the Aussie dollar down, but when you move over to the AUS200 or look at General Equities in the ASX, you'll see that they had their biggest day in 2.5 years. Then there are times, and this is more into day trading, where the indices in the equities movements tend to correlate well moving into the FX markets. So there is evidence to support both sides. Not ideal. It goes without saying that correlation between equities and FX is slowly starting to fade as volumes kick up since we are in the technologically advanced era. But, what is or was the correlation and how does it work? The basic theory (aged) is that when equity markets rise, confidence in that specific country grows well, leading to an inflow of funds from foreign investors. Therefore, equities go up, FX value goes up. It's simple supply and demand when you look at it. If the equities are going up and you're a foreign investor and you want to buy into those equities, it creates demand for holding, let's say, the US dollar if I wanted to buy into the S&P 500. On the flip side, when the equity markets are falling. Then confidence falters, causing investors to convert their invested funds back to their own currencies outside of that country. This is a general theory and I don't recommend basing any of your trading decisions on this, because if you actually have a look at the charts and the correlation, you'll notice that recently it's not been too hot. While you do get a general directional bias, one tends to move before the other and they tend to be quite random in which one goes first. If you have the ability or the skill to be able to work out when something is correlating and when something isn't, then for sure I think you'll be able to find an edge in the market trading some kind of correlation between equities and FX. One correlation I have seen to be quiet useful in recent times is the S&P 500 And the Nikkei. Although in the Asian session the Nikkei is open in the S&P 500 isn't. Usually you see the S&P move and the Nikkei follow suit. Keep an eye on that correlation and tell me if you find any patterns. As a whole, trading correlations can give you an edge in the market. It can provide you with valuable information when it comes to trading, whether you are trading FX or trading Equities. But it's not as simple as it seems. It will take more diving and understanding the markets on a deeper level to know when their correlating and to know when to ignore. I hope you guys have enjoyed this article. If so, please give us a like leave and a comment. It does help the post a fair bit and I'll see you next week for some more content. Happy Trading! -Jordon Mellor
SP:SPXEducation
by TradeThePool
The SEC vs. Ripple Labs, Inc.A brief history In 2004, a few years before the introduction of the white paper and Bitcoin by Satoshi Nakamoto, Ryan Fugger conceived the idea now known as Ripple. Initially, Ripple was not based on blockchain technology. The development of blockchain technology and its implementation within Ripple began in 2012 after Ryan Fugger handed over his project to Chris Larsen, David Schwarz, and the former co-founder of the infamous Mt. Gox, Jed McCaleb. Subsequently, this group of entrepreneurs founded OpenCoin and that same year began to use RipplePay source code to create their own ledger-based payment network for financial institutions. Later, in 2013, OneCoin was renamed to Ripple Labs Inc. and began raising funds. That same year, Jed McCaleb departed from the company to pursue the Stellar Lumens (XLM) project. Meanwhile, the Ripple cryptocurrency rose from a mere fraction of a cent to the all-time-high value of 3.55 USD in 2018. Although, after tens of thousands of percent in gains, Ripple lost more than 90% of its value within the following year. After that, in March 2020, XRP found a bottom and started to rise in a new bull market propelled by an unprecedented amount of quantitative easing and stimulus checks being handed out to American citizens by the government. However, despite other cryptocurrencies reaching new all-time highs, Ripple's performance remained muted in comparison to the previous bull cycle, with many people blaming it on the SEC lawsuit from December 2020. In a new uptrend, Ripple reached 1.98 USD before erasing most of its gains and returning to the range between 0.20 USD and 0.40 USD. After two years of court proceedings, the case nears its end, which has started the bullish speculation that elevated the price to a recent high of 0.55 USD, and which led us to announce a warning to investors. Just two weeks ago, we called the bounce characteristic of “buy the rumor, sell the fact” behavior. Today, we still hold this notion and remain bearish on XRPUSD. Accordingly, we stick to our price targets of 0.30 USD and 0.28 USD. The rationale behind our reasoning is described below. The SEC lawsuit against Ripple Labs Inc. In December 2020, the SEC filed an action against Ripple Labs Inc., alleging that the company raised 1.3 bn. USD through an unregistered digital asset securities offering. Based on the SEC's complaint, Christian Larsen, the company's co-founder, and Bradley Garlinghouse raised capital to finance the company's business by selling cryptocurrency tokens to investors in the U.S. and globally. In addition to that, Ripple distributed billions of XRP tokens in exchange for labor and various services. As if it was not enough, Larsen and Garlinghouse executed personal sales worth approximately 600 mil. USD, potentially breaking federal securities laws by not registering their sales of XRP tokens. The latest developments within the lawsuit and Hinman's remarks A few days ago, U.S. District Court Judge Analisa Torres ruled to release the documents from the former Director of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Division of Corporation Finance. These documents relate mainly to the speech of Hinman at the Yahoo Finance All Economic Summit in 2018. In his 2018 speech, Hinman said that some cryptocurrencies would not be considered securities (and which many investors seem to consider bullish for XRP in the past few days). However, we would like to remind investors that right at the beginning of his speech, Hinman noted that opinions conveyed in the speech are opinions of his own, and not those representing the SEC. Then, just about a minute later, Hinman proceeded to distinguish between securities and potentially “something other than a security.” He noted that if a cryptocurrency carried a third-party promotion, it would most likely fit the security description. Subsequently, he described a promotion as raising funds (through selling tokens instead of issuing a stock) by promoters to fund a company's operations with the goal of achieving financial gains for themselves and their investors. Furthermore, he provided the example of the SEC case versus W.J.Howey Co. from 1946. In that example, Hinman outlined how the character of a transaction is a determining factor in whether an asset is a security or not. He later continued clarifying how a transaction could potentially not represent a securities offering. For that matter, he stated that the network on which a cryptocurrency is based would have to be sufficiently decentralized, and “purchasers would no longer have reasonable expectations that a person or a group will carry out managerial and entrepreneurial efforts”. According to Hinman's following remarks, only under such conditions, a transaction might not represent an investment contract. After that, Hinman finally proceeded to make remarks about Ethereum “while putting aside a fundraising of that company.” He stated that at “the current” time (in 2018), offers and sales of Ethereum were not securities transactions. Then, he said that over time there might be other sufficiently decentralized systems, like in the case of Bitcoin and Ethereum, while omitting any other cryptocurrencies, including Ripple. In next Hinman's remarks, he talked about “a plethora of federal regulations that apply beyond the securities laws.” Furthermore, he noted “a few things” that the SEC could look at in order to determine whether an asset is a security. “A few things the SEC could look at” or ask 1. Is there a person or a group who sponsors the promotion and creation of the sale of the asset? 2. Does a person or a group who sponsors the promotion and creation of the sale of the asset play a significant role in the development and maintenance of that asset and its potential increase in value? 3. Does a person or a group who sponsored the promotion and creation of the sale of the asset retain a stake and/or other interests in the digital asset? 4. Did the promoter raise an amount of funds in excess of what might be needed to establish the running and functional network? If so, did the promoter indicate to investors how these funds might be used to support the value in the 5. secondary market (or increase the value of the enterprise)? 6. Does the promoter continue to expend funds from the proceeds for enhancing the functionality or to just enhance the secondary market value? 7. Do people or entities other than the promoter exercise governance rights and have a meaningful influence on the network? 8. Is the token creation commensurate with meeting the needs of real users rather than feeding speculation? 9. Are independent actors setting the price, or is the promoter supporting the market? Our assessment As it is impossible to tell what will be the outcome of the legal battle between the SEC and Ripple, we are allowed only to speculate about the court ruling. However, based on Hinman's introductory remarks in his speech regarding personal opinions and not those of the SEC or its staff, we would argue that the speech is a weak point of evidence for Ripple. Indeed, we think the same about Ethereum and Bitcoin statements. Hinman said that Ethereum and Bitcoin were not cryptocurrencies at that particular time (during the speech - in 2018). Meanwhile, the lawsuit pertains to the period around 2013 and not to 2018. In addition to that, Hinman did put aside the early stages of Ethereum and its fundraising. Furthermore, he did also mention several requirements for a cryptocurrency to be potentially viewed as something else than “a security.” These requirements would require no third-party promoter and a sufficiently decentralized network, among many other requirements like no reliance on entrepreneurship of a company's leadership. However, after Ryan Fugger sold his project in 2012, the development of Ripple blockchain technology solely relied on the company's new management. Furthermore, the management (allegedly) profited from the sales of XRP as Larsen and Garlinghouse executed personal sales worth approximately 600 mil. USD. In our opinion, all these points represent a significant obstacle for Ripple to winning the SEC lawsuit. DISCLAIMER: This content is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade. The article serves solely educational purposes and contains merely alleged information and not actual claims about the actions of those described in the article.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Tradersweekly
100
Bitcoin Adjusted For Commodity & M2SLChart shows historical price of Bitcoin adjusted against both the Global Commodity Price Index and M2SL, and may serve as a visual aid to illustrate Bitcoin price adjusted for rise in commodity prices while taking into account increase in money supply. This chart therefore accentuates and magnifies the recent downturn by taking into account both rising commodity prices due partially to increase in Money Supply and money supply increase itself. One could make the case that this chart distorts the price of Bitcoin. One could also make the case that the chart illustrates Bitcoin's shortcomings as an inflation hedge. Regression analysis shows retrace from cycle ATH to ATL becoming more severe with each downturn. By this measure, we might try to look for 88% retrace on this chart.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Linneaus
2
IS THIS THE BOTTOM FOR JPY???Today FED increased interest rates by 75 basis points as expected , there were some huge movements in the FX markets. After a first rally of USD against major currencies, there was a counter movement that suggested that the worse was over....or at least until Jerome Powell started to speak. Powell promised further hikes down the road that might bring the funds rates to 4,6% or more. WHAT HAPPENED TO THE MARKETS??🙄🙄 EURO-USD-----------------> SELL OFF USD-CAD-------------------> RALLY DXY (dollar index) -------> RALLY So what?? Strangely enough USD-JPY did not break the 145 level!!!! In the picture you can clearly see the different behavior of JPY compared to other currencies (I plot the USD-EUR instead of EURUSD to be consistent). Currently USD-JPY is trading at around 1998 levels, we are very close to the high of September 1998 from which we saw a major drop to the 100 level. Tonight at 5am (Central Europe time) the BOJ will take it's decision concerning interest rates. These are my considerations: 🎯considering Jerome Powell speech I would have expected a rally in USDJPY that would have push the pair above 1998 highs. This didn't happen 🎯USD-JPY didn't even take out the highs made on the 7th of September and stayed within a multiday range 🎯how long can the Japan stick to his ultra low rates policy? Althought inflation is still undercontrol in Japan the Month to month inflation seems to be rising and the strong dollar will push prices of imported goods. My opinion is that BoJ will be soon forced to increase interest rates for fear that the inflation might start to increase as it's doing in many countries around the globe. It's highly unlikely that the strong dollar won't spill any inflation into the Japanese economy.
TVC:DXYShort
by SBtrader82
EOSE longHi All, My name's Kyle Ciotti and it's my rookie year with trading as of 9/1/2022. I'm excited to work with Trading View's platform - very high-tech & easy to navigate. My background is in financial planning, currently mainly focused on fixed indexed annuity strategy. I'm 34 years old and after a blown $1,500 account in high school I have never tried to trade in the market again - Until now. I'm 34 years old with an SEC-registered Series 65, 63, 6, and SIE license, but, don't let these certifications fool you. I'm an amateur trader like many of you and looking to level up my skills. My focus is on penny stocks ranging from roughly $0.80 - $2.00. With that said, after reading an article online I was fascinated with Eos Energy (EOSE). After analyzing the charts it looks like it could be set up as a long opportunity. The company is developing battery technology to rival lithium-ion technology. And, with bullish/bearish trendlines converging around $2.30, I think this stock could see some explosive growth. I set EOSE buy price between $2.10 - $2.15 Target sell price points are between $2.48 - $3.40 I currently set my stop price level at -2.5%. I understand this is an aggressive stop percentage, however, until I have enough data to argue for changing it then it'll stay at -2.5%. Thanks for stopping by! KC
NASDAQ:EOSELong
by KyleUSA
3
EducationBitcoin price history The price of Bitcoin has seen big changes since BTC was first launched in 2009. Initially, Bitcoin didn’t really have an established price, and most people who owned BTC obtained it through mining. Eventually, a growing number of people became interested in Bitcoin, and began buying coins from other holders. Initially, these purchases were facilitated directly between buyers and sellers through web forums like Bitcoin Talk. Eventually, Bitcoin exchanges were created and offered a more streamlined and automated way of buying and selling Bitcoin. One of the first ever Bitcoin exchanges was Bitcoin Market, which launched in 2010. Bitcoin Market and other platforms established a public market for Bitcoin, making it possible to track the price of BTC as expressed in US dollars and other currencies. The first price of Bitcoin was $0.07, according to CoinCodex data, which tracks the Bitcoin price starting from August 2010. Let’s take a look at the historical Bitcoin price chart and highlight some important milestones: $0.10 – The Bitcoin price first surpassed $0.10 in October of 2010 $1 – The first time that Bitcoin was worth $1 was in February of 2011 $10 – The first time that the BTC price climbed over $10 was in August 2012 $100 – The first time that Bitcoin was worth more than $100 was in April 2013 $1,000 – Bitcoin surpassed $1,000 for the first time in its history in December 2013 $10,000 – Bitcoin reached $10,000 for the first time in December 2017 $20,000 – Bitcoin reached $20,000 for the first time in December 2020 $30,000 – The first time Bitcoin reached $30,000 was in January 2021 $40,000 – The first time Bitcoin reached $40,000 was in January 2021 $50,000 – Bitcoin first reached the $50,000 price level in February 2021 $60,000 – The first time Bitcoin reached $60,000 was in April 2021
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Ch1m0