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EU - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISIn response to fears that the energy crisis will throw Europe into recession and restrict ECB's ability to tighten monetary policy, the Euro dropped as low as $1.01 for the first time in over 20 years. On July 11, Nord Stream 1, the key gas pipeline, began annual maintenance. Flows are expected to stop for 10 days, but concerns linger that supply might not recover fully. This month, the European Central Bank is expected to raise key rates by 25 basis points, the first increase in more than a decade, while the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points after a cumulative 150 basis point increase since March.
by una_exp
BTCUSD (07/07/2022) "review and improve of the last (1h btcusd)"(Lets Recover And Improve) The last analysis with a short in bitcoin published yesterday 06/07 was not of sufficient quality, luckily I was able to cut the short before executing it in negative with the stoploss, Since this afternoon, knowing that I wasn't going to get home soon and that I don't like to leave operations open when I can't have even the slightest control over them, I've decided to close it. As I have said, I do not like to leave operations open at night and I think that any short-term trader has this very clear, I have decided not to be able to sleep to correct the analysis previously done, realizing the number of errors and presuppositions that I had given after the fatigue of having done a lot of behavior analysis this morning. Right now I have not executed any Short, I have left, as if they were open trades with the TradingView tool, two short simulations with a behavior that seems much more rational to me, even so the real entry if I wanted to trade from REAL would not be given until the second short with confirmation of fall. I may not be a great analyst yet and spend too much time and frustration most of the time before a true objective study, but as long as I continue to keep these journals as a reminder of my improvement and advancement in knowledge I am satisfied. Good evening and I hope that if someone takes too long to read this, they have the luck and the desire to want and be able to continue operating or learning from it. A strong greeting! ---------------------------------------------------------------ç El último análisis con un short en bitcoin publicado ayer dia 06/07 carecía de calidad suficiente, por suerte fui capaz de cortar el short antes de ejecutarlo en negativo con el stoploss, desde esta tarde sabiendo que no iba a llegar pronto a casa y que no me gusta dejar operaciones abiertas cuando no puedo llevar un mínimamente leve control sobre ellas he decidido cerrarla. Como bien he dicho no me gusta dejar operaciones abiertas de noche y creo que cualquier trader cortoplazista tiene esto muy claro, he decdido al no poder dormir corregir el análisis previamente hecho, dandome cuenta de la cantidad de errores y presuposiciones que había dado tras el cansancio de haber hecho mucho mucho análisis de comportamientos esta mañana. Ahora mismo no he ejecutado ningun Short, he dejado como si fueran operaciones abiertas con la herramienta de TradingView dos simulaciones de short con un comportamiento que me parece mucho mas racional, aun así la verdadera entrada si quisese operar de froma REAL no la daría hasta el segundo short con confirmación de caída. Quizás no se aún un gran analista y dedique demasiado tiempo y frustración la mayoría de las veces antes que un verdadero estudio objetivo, pero mientras siga manteniendo estas publicaciones de diario como recordatorio de mi mejora y avance en conocimientos estoy satisfecho. Buenas noches y espero que si alguien se demora a leer esto tenga la suerte y las ganas de querer y poder seguir operando o aprendiendo de ello. Un fuerte saludo!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by AVNGL01
4
ADA Cardano VASIL Hardfork DetailsHI Friends. Today i decide to explain more about coming upgrade in cardano blockchain. without wasting time lets go friends. Vasil Hardfork: Another Network Upgrade On The Cardano Blockchain A hardfork is a software upgrade to a blockchain’s network, making previously invalid transactions and blocks valid. While many blockchains rarely do the hardfork, Cardano (ADA) is a sort of blockchain that experiences periodic improvements every year. After their first hardfork, Alonzo, now Cardano is on track to implement another fork called the ‘Vasil hardfork’. Vasil hardfork is the second massive upgrade to the Cardano network that focuses on overall network stability and connectivity. With Vasil, pipelining testing, new CIP mechanisms (CIP-31, CIP-32, CIP-33, CIP-40), UTXO on-disk storage integration, and Hydra will be introduced as added functions. once Vasil hardfork is completed, Cardano will receive a higher throughput and an enhanced range of decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized exchange (DEX), and smart contracts. These enhancements are derived from the scaling improvements of the network as stated earlier, including pipelining tests, improved logging, the release of four CIPs: CIP-31 (Reference Input), CIP-32 (Inline Datum), CIP-33 (Reference Script), and CIP-40 (Collateral Output), UTXO HD and Hydra integration. CIP’s Explanation: CIP-33 is expected to significantly reduce transaction costs, by making transactions small and “lightweight” CIP-31 will facilitate Decentralized Apps (DApps) to access transactional output without having to recreate it as before. CIP-32 introduces an on-chain data storage for the community and developers, thereby making Cardano a “truly decentralized architecture”. CIP-40 executing a Plutus Smart contract requires a collateral amount, which means users must include a fee to cover the cost of executing the script.When a transaction fails validation, said collateral is completely lost. CIP-40 changes this by including just enough collateral in a transaction for it to go through and setting a limit to failed transactions, so it can only lose a minimum amount of collateral. Despite several crashes and bearish market cycles at the moment, ADA still performs well and ranks in the top 10th percentile on the crypto market, based on its market capitalization this upgrade scheduled to happen in 29 june 2022 but its delayed for next month july. thank you for your reading and your support. hope to like this post.please share me your opinion in comments.
by TraderAmin-KZ
2
LONG Citigroup, most undervalued US bankReasons to buy: -one of warren buffet's recent buys -Trading below 5 year avg p/b valuations (0.80) at 0.51 -Book value of 94USD per share, fair value = 75USD per share VS current price of 46USD (63% upside) -4% dividend yield -Cheapest out of all US banks -Rising interest rates pushes up Net interest margins While slowing economic growth will curtail near-term loan growth, expect that rising interest rates, robust economic growth, and moderating inflation will provide a good tailwind for banks. These factors will lead to rising interest income, maintaining low default rates, and lowering charge offs.
NYSE:CLong
by FIRE_CAPITAL_SG
2
035. PIGGISH PLAY - Long Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD)Royal Gold Inc. is now positioned for the holy grail of bullish baggers. The bags on this trade are so big that I had to steal a pot from some greedy leprechaun in order to fit all the potential gains in one location. For a visual perspective of the potential gainz on this trade, see the upper-right-hand part of the chart for the 'Pig Pot'. I also sometimes keep weed in there, so please leave that bag alone/let me know if you happen to find it. I. Fundamental Briefing: This will be the second Pig Play in a row where I touch upon the fundamental situation of the underlying company's financials. I usually prefer to keep it technical because that is the only moral basis to take a trade. But the fundamental picture needs to be addressed for RGLD because it is actually undervalued. That's right - in what must be the frothiest market in American history, we have ourselves a SEVERELY UNDERVALUED stock that just released a heroic quarterly report. Not only is this company operationally best-in-class, but it just cleared the remainder of its payable notes while also securing an enormous line of credit, if needed. This is an important detail because it hints at a potentially aggressive strategy with acquisitions and property expansions galore. For those less acquainted with the precious metals industry, there is a particular category of company that operates as a collector-of-sorts, whereby it simply takes a royalty from operations on the properties it owns. These properties are usually large plots of land that contain one or multiple mines that are available for digging by the mining companies that have a contractual right to do so. Once the refined product is sold to third-party retailers (presumably by the mining companies, but could be other parties at times), Royal Gold proves its namesake by collecting a royalty at the time of sale. Aside from Royal, the other major royalty player in this space is Franco Nevada, which I also personally like, but is not nearly as undervalued as our guy here. The bottom fundamental line is that it's great! If you want to know more or don't believe me, take a glance at their latest quarterly numbers and guidance for 2022. II. Technical Picture: Much like what RGLD does, I have discovered the locations of the largest mines in the chart and identified them as such. The geometric form on the left side of the chart is a rather complicated arrangement of triangles and circles that are drawn to form golden rectangles and other such sacred angles. This sort of 'geometric' style of technical analysis is both difficult to teach and actually use for accurate projections. It is not a set of techniques that is practical to use intraday because of how time consuming it is to get precise projections. In any case, I have manipulated and contorted a few of the angles and distances to project out where the bullish and bearish landmine hits are likely to occur in time and in price. It just so happens that there are a string of harmonically-spaced LANDMINES set to explode in perfect order in the days and weeks to come. I will say that I've never seen such a perfect array of bullish line extensions like this and am very excited to buy and hold and do nothing for once. For the record, its laughable that people actually brag about their success with this strategy when there is legitimately nothing to it - especially if it is an alt-coin. To wrap this up before the opportunity disappears, the reason why this is so special is because there is a very high chance that you can use short-term options like you would any run-of-the-mill pure equity play. That is, between the dates of ~ February 11th and July 18th, there is hardly any resistance that will cause this move much trouble. If anything, it might delay the inevitable continues rally to 150+, but that can be easily dealt with by having the right options strategy (see next section). III. Pig Spec's and Other Entry Details: Unlike most of my plays, this one has farther-spaced contract expiration dates. There are only 4 to choose from between now and July 18th. They are as follows: a) March 18th b) April 14th c) June 17th d) July 15th - (its as if the makers know about the July 18th cutoff) The way I am going to play this is to distribute all of my allotted capital to the April 14th expiration. That is, 100% of the capital is going toward three different strikes, all for April 14th. I am going to enter these three strikes tomorrow, see below for details: BUY LONG CALLS ON RGLD (80% of Total Capital) BUY LONG CALLS ON RGLD (20 % of Total Capital) That is all for now, see reasoning section below for strategic explanation. IV. Options Strategy Explained: The way I would like to play this is to mimic the process of buying and holding equity with the expectation of higher prices and steady gains. This is mainly because of the very low probability that the stock trades below 115 for the period between now and mid-July. I am making this assumption based on some of the characteristics of the particular geometric structure of the chart and the timing of the major underlying trends in precious metals. As far as strike selection goes, 110 is an extremely safe level from here on out. As it stands today, the premium structure is such that you can pay proportionately the same for the 115 and 120 strikes without incurring an additional cost for this safety. This deal exists for the 4/14 110 strike, but it will not last, so I advise entering swiftly at some point during the trading day tomorrow. The only barrier for this strike is the higher cost per contract, which is why the saying goes, "it takes money to make money." Still, with the protection it offers in this spot, Id much prefer to own half the number of contracts with less than a quarter of the implied risk. To this last point of having to tradeoff between safety and number of contracts owned - the solution lies in the remaining 25% of allotted capital going towards the much more aggressive 130 strike for the same expiry. While I say "aggressive" with a straight face, it is a little comical to call it as such given some of the other plays I've made in the past. The point is that this trade is golden and proof of this lies in how un-aggressive the aggressive portion of the position is. Unlike the SBUX play, this one is slower and more methodical and may last until mid-July. Therefore, I do not foresee making many changes to the above setup, in terms of the options held. I will provide an updated plan around mid-March depending on how much RGLD moves from now until then. Otherwise, I will not provide mid-play guidance for this one, unless something extremely strange happens where gold gets outlawed or something in the next couple of months. America has outlawed gold before, so it wouldn't totally shock me. Sort of kidding, but whats great is that it represents the biggest risk that I can see with this trade. = Bagz Galore -King-Pig NASDAQ:RGLD AMEX:GLD TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER FXOPEN:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! MCX:SILVER1! AMEX:GDX AMEX:GDXJ FTX:PAXGUSD
NASDAQ:RGLDLong
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
16
Plan for potential "ape" spreadJust a small idea. I like this company; been trading it since 2018 and the pandemic. "In case" the Monkeypox virus spreads, this could be a decent hedge. We saw $SIGA with huge gaps last week (similar play), which likely will open higher on Monday. According to one source; It's spread through droplets and/or contact with infected lesions; skin contact coughs, etc. In other words, this is nothing you only inhale, like Covid" By that, hospital staff would need to wear full protective gear (In worst-case scenario). Alpha Pro Tech makes "high-value disposable Personal Protective Apparel and masks", and I, therefore, expect it to extend its weekly base building and breakout. Entered Thursday. Had a nice PocketPivot and wedge BO from Friday. Stop: 5% start. When 5% gained -> moved to B/E before trailing 5%/ma10. Not my classic setup, but there are not any good breakouts in this market anyway :) Good luck next week.
AMEX:APTLong
by TechFille006
All or Nothing Versus DCA rule boundThis is for the new trader trying to find what works for them. ((Note.)) It does not have to be your idea to work. I struggled with this in my trading early on and it cost me money, stress, and lots of doubt. I am sure this has been shown in some way or another many times over. If you have never seen this concept before then I hope it helps you win. Concept : You only have $1,000 to start with. Do you shoot for the moon and go all or nothing or do a dollar cost average plan with a few rules. All or nothing .... Pick your entry and cross fingers. As a new trader even a seasoned trader will get Bad Entries when the market does not go according to your plan or your Tech Analysis. DCA .... Buying on a schedule or a set of rules. Dollar cost average gives you a chance to make bad entries as the plan or tech analysis falls apart. This DCA rule bound play is restricted to BTC going down %5 or greater before you can buy a Max of $100 worth at any entry you choose. * for this example i chose the tops of each move up from that down move. After buying in you have to wait until the next move down %5, I try to not have the purchase on the same level as back to back.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Sir-Kameleon
DXY in a vital resistanceDXY (US dollar index) is in a vital resistance. if we have good news of inflation this week we can see a good correction in DXY. and this is reason for improvement of risky and parallel markets like crypto and stocks. according to this level i think we have a little correction and after that we should update our analyze. also we can see a three top reversal pattern in this level and its attached to my analyze. be careful these days about your assets. follow news and happenings and make best decisions. dont forget that our first step is: <<< protect our funds >>>
INDEX:DXYShort
by TraderAmin-KZ
1
Total crypto market 1M timeframes - BTC - BTCUSD comparedHi! Apparently, technical analysis does not work, but on its basis we can base many future movements, entries or exits. A self-fulfilling prophecy which is technical analysis over the past few years has estimated a pretty good time to jump in and jump out the train. 1. Today I'll will show you what we can infer from the charts - price action, rsi, stoch & some herd noise. Shortly about indicators - As we all know, these are lagging indicators, but it's pretty good to use them to take wider picture on the market structure. Here is some thoughts about currently market structure played at historical data with few more tools; Currently on the monthly chart frame using Fibonacci retracement price get to the 0.786 point -> same as bitcoin chart. - This level is quite important as price action meet the 200 moving average – last several times it was great opportunity to take some expositions at this point assuming long term moves (from the begging of bitcoin history including 1m time frame candles – bitcoin didn’t fell & close below 200 moving average.). Otherwise in this place total crypto market cap reached “last bubble highs” around 771.5Billion $ of total value. Bitcoin with this total crypto market value (late 2017) was around 19.875 $ price per piece – same as now was (few hours earlier). Based on historical facts on last two cycles - last relative strength index topped ( 3x red circles RSI window/ confirming divergence) - around 01 march 2022 - from this point, we will have approximately 730 days until price rise up significantly which can be around march 2024 – 1 month until next bitcoin halving. 2. From example some thoughts I always keep in mind that in crypto it is all base on multiplying your exposition: -> Since buy at 60k, your path until 100k give you 66,667% gain, -> Since you buy at 20k, gain will be 500%, -> Since you but at 10k your profit will reach 1000% - it’s 10x compared to 1,667% when you buy at 60k. It is very likely that we will see price range 14/ 16k $ for one bitcoin, without excluding deeper dive in short/mid term. -> From 60k to 20k is 67,67% down/ -> From 60k to 10k is 83,33% down/ -> From 20k to 10k is still -50% down/ Don't catch the falling knives should be appropriate definition if you don't calculate your risk -> nice way to avoid risky entries is DCA - which mean dollar cost average - in other words entry price averaging. 3. Some thoughts about sentiment. > Positive features: - BTC as know was never hacked, - It gives P2P transactions, - diversifies portfolio - best known digital value, - long term dolar oversupply (btc priced in dollar) – as we know all of FIAT currency is going to zero over the time – knowing it, we can assume that Bitcoin going to infinity compared to USD - (look BTC starting price ~0.10$), - on-chain whale accumulation, - price correction ~75% down – (estimated 75-85% for my attractive range), - negative social media sentiment, “crypto is a scam” & others, - fundamental – bitcoin was created by people for people, and its value its created by unforced faith. >Negative features: - unfavorable regulations for cryptocurrency (especialy PoW consensus) – including green energy, - bitcoin sell pression from institutions – cutting the corners - to take over the market* and attempt to liquidate centralized collateraled holdings like Celsius – adding maximal fear, - uncertain situation on the financial markets, bitcoin will be probably one of the assets to cover other losses, - as allways, black swans. 4. I'm not saying that bitcoin won't hit new lows and break a long-standing trend, but I think it's unlikely. Im still think that bitcoin is very risky asset with high volatile, but its great opportunity to diversify your portfolio into digital and very liquid assets - inversely correlated to FIAT currencies. This market stays here for longer and it looks like it is repetitive itself.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by NightTerm
Eth gbp I've personally put ALL my assets onto cold storage and waiting for price to recover all those big pumped green vector candles that our good friends, the market makers have kindly sold to all those traders that bought using leverage...so their essentially in a loss on those contracts they agreed to. This "pre covid" line , imo, applies to all the coins that were in existence prior to march 2020. I reckon there will be big institutions lookin at these levels too and by then, the filthy hands of the fed and sec will have all their regulations and BS in place so they can get on board and mot likely try and funk up our new financial world for their own benefit. Shame ... but there's no fighting them over this
by steve_taffy
Square (Block) Accumulation TimeThis is retesting lows of March 2020. The bear market wiped out the last Bull market rallys gains on almost all stocks. Check the earnings reports on the growth stocks beaten down, it I'd ridiculous because they are legit and in a normal market environment would never have lead to a major sell off or any sell off for that matter. It's as if the any little excuse was found and used to dump the Stocks during this time of inflation pressure. For those who are here for the long term it would behoove you to acquire shares at these super discounted levels.
NYSE:SQLong
by Sawyer170
1
Bitcoin, please read the White Paper before investingI don't normally use the CME chart to trade crypto; however, family members bought a lot of the neighbors' farms in the 1980's so I thought I'd share this chart for my fellow crypto sod busters. There is 'paper Bitcoin' trading happening. That equates to there being no rational, -easily- predictable top or bottom. The bottom is in when the 'Composite Group' can buy at the lowest price and when the seller is exhausted (Wyckoff, 1931). The composite group can print both the USD and the paper commodity using the CME to force all but the composite group out of the market; in fact, that is the goal. They'll take the farm. The Fed prints to buy, or lend to proxies who buy, and inflate to make the settlement price closer to zero. I do not know where the BTC bottom is for 2022. We can take into account the paper trading and use on-chain metrics to see where people value Bitcoin. I personally see Bitcoin as a valuable buy as marked on the chart, but I've also seen value in pitching 75 pound alfalfa bales for a penny. The Wyckofian composite group will do -anything- to get the 'Lost or HODLed' coins to move. We may be seeing the first real macro-financial attack on Bitcoin which can only be good news in light of the Bitcoin White paper and its' intellectual precursors. The Bitcoin whitepaper: bitcoinwhitepaper.co The intellectual precursor groups.csail.mit.edu Yes, we're playing hardball with centralized currency, tax coercion, state meddling in our pocketbooks, and we're taking Human Action before Atlas Shrugged: www.goodreads.com This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor and have no in stake in you success. I bought a $13 video game in 2013 with a Bitcoin I mined in 2011, don't cry to me.
CME:BTC1!Short
by ZenoAgropolous
Something Bullish Could Be Happening in ChinaU.S. stocks fell into a “bear market” this week. Meanwhile, a new bull market could be starting across the Pacific. This chart shows the iShares China Large Cap ETF with relative strength compared to the S&P 500. FXI lagged the U.S. benchmark consistently between February 2021 and May 2022. But it’s outperformed in the last month as officials in Beijing lend support to the business community . As many traders know, a bear market starts when an index drops 20 percent from its high. A lesser-known definition from S&P states that a bull market begins with a rebound of 20 percent from the low. By this definition, China exited its bear market earlier in June. Perhaps even more interesting is the strength of China’s burgeoning technology sector – especially with the Nasdaq-100 reeling lower. This second weekly chart features the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which holds major companies like Alibaba and JD.com. Notice how it appears to have broken a falling trendline. Second, HXC’s relative strength histogram is pegged to the Nasdaq-100, home to major names like Apple and Microsoft. Its recent outperformance was the highest in 17 years of history. The divergence is noteworthy because Chinese tech stocks have typically behaved like high-beta versions of their U.S. peers. This time they’re trying to break out at the same time a hawkish Fed hammers Silicon Valley valuations. Traders may want to consider whether a bigger rotation is underway. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
AMEX:FXI
by TradeStation