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USDJPY compared to SPX Here is risk-on momentum fading since November. The outperformance in the S&P compared to the Yen has come to a "meeting of the minds" from April '21, in my perspective. Here is the most basic scenario I can think of, If Fed is dovish with only 25bips then we could see the risk-off Yen trade fade/flatten. If we see the a hawkish 50-75bps move then the Yen trade could be good to go for a fresh rally. If the Fed is not hiking rates then the SPX will rip 100-200 points and the Yen trade would be stagnant and bearish.
by Surfwave
Growth vs. Value: Skating to Where the Puck Will BeHockey legend Wayne Gretsky famously said: "Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." This sometimes applies in investing and trading. Towards what object have investors been skating, figuratively speaking? Currently, financial media, fund managers, and commentators have been emphasizing the opportunities in value over growth for several months. And for good reason: Energy, a value / cyclical sector unloved for about a decade, has outperformed every other sector this year by a huge margin. It has risen by approximately 20.5% since January 1, 2022. Even it's uptrend channel could not contain it (although it looks to be consolidating at the moment or perhaps mean-reverting). Increasingly, market participants have been "skating" towards value areas and away from growth for over a year now, as anyone who has been burned by long trades in tech / disruptive innovation knows. For example, a spread chart (also called a ratio chart) of ARKK/SPY shows just how dramatically growth has struggled. ARKK is a well-known US ETF containing high-beta stocks typically categorized as disruptive-innovation stocks, i.e., high growth names. This chart evidences just how much growth has struggled vs. the S&P 500. Notice, though, how this spread chart shows how close to major, long-term support the ratio has moved. Examples abound of high-growth names having been crushed in powerful bear markets in those names. Some of them are even top names with innovative products and services and an impressive record of earnings / sales growth: Square ( NYSE:SQ ) has declined about -68% from all-time highs, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) fell about -81% from its high to its low in late January 2022, and ( Roku ) dropped about 78% from its peaks. Even large cap tech not gone unscathed: Facebook NASDAQ:FB suffered a nearly -50% decline after a huge earnings / guidance disappointment. But in general, large-cap tech has been the exception in growth until the selloff this year. While growth / tech in general has struggled for months, large-cap tech names such as GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA have outperformed. Even AMZN's sideways move for about a year should be considered outperformance relative to other high-growth names as shown by the ARKK chart above: see the chart below, which is a relative chart of AMZN vs. ARKK, revealing that even with AMZN's lengthy sideways move, it has dramatically outperformed growth / tech names more generally. Markets are in constant flux. So often, just when the little people (retail traders like me) take notice of a powerful new trend or outperformance, it ends. So I'm trying to watch for where markets are moving rather than focusing on where they are. In short, is growth bottoming out relative to value? Here are a few charts to consider. 1. The main weekly chart above (also copied below) is a spread chart showing the ratio of NASDAQ:IJT (small-cap growth) vs. small cap value. Notice how close to major long-term up trendline support the ratio has moved. And the weekly ratio is also right at support at March 2021 and May-June 2021 lows. The RSI for this relative chart also shows that it's oversold to 33.65, a level that only appears in multi-month (and often multi-year) intervals. Even the two RSI lows in 1H 2021 occurred 2 months apart, but this is the exception looking back longer term. 2. Large-cap growth is right at support at a long-term uptrend line. See the weekly spread chart of the ratio between XLK/SPY. AMEX:XLK is a US ETF that is heavily weighted towards large-cap tech. 3. Equal-weighted growth vs. equal-weighted tech RYG/RPV is also very close to long-term upward trendline support. 4. Interest rates are nearing long-term downtrend channel resistance—at the upper line (the actual downtrend line). Interest rates have soared powerfully since mid-2020, and the Federal Reserve has hawkishly signaled coming rate hikes, and market participants have behaved as though rates will keep on going to the moon—by selling tech / growth, which struggle when rates rise b/c of discounting of future cash flows used to value such names. The viewpoint that rates could turn around in the near future seems radical, contrarian and unreasonable. But consider this chart below. Could rates turn around just after a large move just after millions of market participants have been flocking towards value names that outperform in rising-rate environments? Some well-known experts have already taken this view. www.cnbc.com It seems priced into the market right now that the 10-year yield could continue rising, that the interest rates could even breakout higher above long-term downtrend resistance, and that the Fed is likely behind the curve in controlling inflation. It seems consensus that value could continue to outperform long-term, and that growth could break even long-term support levels and continue to plummet. But if this is priced into the market, shouldn't one consider buying what's already priced in? Especially because maybe what is priced into the market will not last. Thinking about where the "puck is going to be" may suggest that tech / growth is making a multi-month or multi-year low or that interest rates are going to pullback in the next few months, allowing tech to thrive again.
NASDAQ:IJT
by SquishTrade
4
GBPNZD (SHORT) 🔥🔥🔥Multi confluences playing out on the chart. We expect the market to reverse at the OB. We can also see the price struggling to the upside which indicates weaker BULLS. Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck
Short
by Thewest-sidetrader
Rate volatility breaks March 2020 high!Here we have the MOVE index. This expresses the volatility in bond yields, and to an extent, 'fear' in the bond market. It seems to be quite under the radar right now, but I want to outline why this is important. The index is currently above the March 2020 settlement high... And yet US equities haven't necessarily reacted to this move just yet. But we're seeing signs of stress now in the credit market... This chart is showing the BAML high yield options adjusted spread FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2 . This is important, as it's showing the difference in yield between the treasury curve and all bonds rated BB and below, weighted by market cap... And we can currently see that this is rising, trading at the highest price since December 2020. This is where the real risk degradation will come from, and it is starting to follow the overall move in sovereign bond yields (identified by the MOVE index) as global central banks become more and more hawkish. For firms with a lot of high yield debt, this is not good, considering their margins are likely to be very thin and they could be defined as 'zombies', or firms that are only surviving because they can service their current debt levels. If this debt cost increases, they will face even more hardship. Make sure to keep an eye on both of these indices going forward.
Editors' picks
TVC:MOVE
by FinkPro
17
Alphabet / Google (GOOGL) - DCF Model - Intrinsic ValueThis valuation analysis is based on a base case scenario DCF model. Google DCF Model Assumptions: Tax Rate = 16.2% Discount Rate = 8.4% Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0% EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x Transaction Date = 05/02/2022 Fiscal Year End = 31/12/2022 Current Price = 2,865.86 Shares Outstanding = 662 Debt = 26,206 Cash = 20,945 Capex = 24,640 Base Case Scenario: In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of 18%, 16%, 14%, 13%, 12%. These revenue growth assumptions are slightly below the analysts' forecasts at the time of analysis. DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL: Terminal Value Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = $196,262 EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $2,453,270 Intrinsic Value: Enterprise Value (m) = $1,986,779 Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945 Less: Debt (m) = $26,206 Equity Value (m) = $1,981,518 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,992.69 DCF (5Y) GROWTH EXIT MODEL: Terminal Value Final Forecast FCFf (m) = $119,494 Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0% TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $1,902,831 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value (m) = $1,616,256 Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945 Less: Debt (m) = $26,206 Equity Value (m) = 1,610,995 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,433.09 DISCLAIMER: All information and analysis are based on the author's views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing. Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information's reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors. Any actions taken based on this information is strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information here or its website. DISCLOSURE: I/we have open long positions in GOOGL. We do not intend on altering this position in the coming weeks. NASDAQ:GOOGL
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by BULL_HEADED_BEAR
no World War 3 - better be long MOEXhi fellow traders, since very long time that such a simple theme popped on my radar and it is so easy to lay down the reasoning. all is based on a single geo-political fact, war world 3 to happen or not, if happens I assume that all stock markets will free fall, crash, and get demolished. including MOEX. if world war 3 will not start, we have the MOEX as attractive long for the following reasons: 1- commodities rally of recent months to serve MOEX and the Russian Ruble very well, they are going to cash the commodities rush. 2- the Russian Ruble is heavily oversold, its handling by the Russian central bank is very healthy and offers great nominal carry reward, MOEX is quoted in Rubles. 3- if we get off the headlines of the "news" institutions/organizations, Russia is definitely a young tiger wishing to turn into a great tiger. remember, central bank with positive real yields is strong signal for very healthy macro policy running the economy. in case you are interested, I have list of specific listed companies that are on my buy and hold list, the investment theme includes calculation made for future dividends and in general it is a theme for the next 3-10 years with clear targets for scale-out / scale-in activities during the journey every 8/21 weeks cycle depends on each specific listed stock within the theme. for that you need to contact me directly. so, risk is world war 3 and reward is best available investment in a currency and stock index directly exposed to commodities bull/boom/flight cycle. the ideas are mine, the decision is yours! good luck
RUS:MOEX
by FlukeTrading
5
Intel DCF Model - Intrinsic ValueIntel DCF Assumptions: Tax Rate = 12.0% Discount Rate = 7.4% Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0% EV/EBITDA Multiple = 9.0x Transaction Date = 28/02/2022 Fiscal Year-End = 25/12/2022 Current Price = $47.71 Shares Outstanding (m) = 4,072 Debt (m) = $38,101 Cash (m) = $28,413 Capex (m) = $20,329 Base Case Scenario In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of -4%, 4%, 5%, 8%, 10%. These assumptions are slightly lower than analysts’ forecasts. DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL: Terminal Value Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = $44,337 EV/EBITDA Multiple = 9.0x TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $339,031 Intrinsic Value Final Forecast EBITDA (m) =$44,337 EV/EBITDA Multiple = 9.0x TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $339,031 DCF (5Y) PERPETUAL GROWTH RATE MODEL Terminal Value Enterprise Value (m) = $324,750 Plus: Cash (m) = $28,413 Less: Debt (m) = $38,101 Equity Value (m) = $315,062 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $77.37 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value (m) = $262,768 Plus: Cash (m) = $28,413 Less: Debt (m) = $38,101 Equity Value (m) = $253,080 EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $62.15 DISCLAIMER: All information is the author’s views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing, and Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information’s reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors. Any actions taken based on the information on the website is strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information on this site. DISCLOSURE: I/we have open long positions in Intel. We may increase this position depending on market movements over the coming weeks.
NASDAQ:INTC
by BULL_HEADED_BEAR
1
PYPL LongPayPal is down from its 52 week high of 300 all the way down to 100. After taking a look at their earnings and financials they look like a sound company and i honestly dont see a reason for this large of a drop in price. right now PayPal is trading at a p/e of only 32 which is very cheap compared to competitiors like SQ and V. as you can see it is currently bouncing off of some old supports and i have taken this opportunity to buy a few shares with tight stop loss just to test the waters of this hopefully recovering company.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by renfroew
ETH ONCHAIN ANALYSIS: SOPR ANALYSISONCHAIN analysis can be equated with fundamental analysis in the world of cryptocurrency. SOPR is an Abbreviation of The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). it is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. In fact, this index shows whether investors are in profit or in loss? See the link below for more information on SOPR: Here we want to present the SOPR analysis of the ETHEREUM ETH crossed the value 1 down (in the oscillator 0). This means that ETHEREUM investors are no longer profitable. The oscillator, on the other hand, shows a downward trend. Based on this, it is likely that we will see a continuation of the downward trend to the point that the price is considered low enough for investors to enter the market for a long position. COINBASE:ETHUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by cryptoonchain